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Banedon

By Banedon,
in Chicago Cubs Talk

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Mark Priors Calves Myrtle Beach Pelicans

Mark Priors Calves

Old-Timey Member
Posted
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Carrie Muskat ‏@CarrieMuskat 26m

MLB officially announces spring workout dates. #Cubs pitchers/catchers will workout 2/14, and 1st full squad workout 2/19 in Mesa, AZ

Woo hoo! I hate this time of year until spring training.

 

At least we have the Cubs Convention coming up for a quick reprieve of propoganda. After that come the dog days until those first ST pics.

 

Holy hell, the convention; what the [expletive] is even going to be the big event/unveiling?

Wrigley Field's 100th anniversary

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XZero771679666304 Knoxville Smokies

XZero771679666304

Old-Timey Member
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Carrie Muskat ‏@CarrieMuskat 26m

MLB officially announces spring workout dates. #Cubs pitchers/catchers will workout 2/14, and 1st full squad workout 2/19 in Mesa, AZ

Woo hoo! I hate this time of year until spring training.

 

Blackhawks.

 

lol

 

Just twiddling my thumbs would be more exciting.

Hairyducked Idiot All-Star

Hairyducked Idiot

Old-Timey Member
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It's obviously *really* hard to predict what is going to happen a year from now, and all of these projections have error bars that will make it moot.

 

But let's assume

a) We don't get Tanaka and are content with a do-nothing offseason

b) Baez and Bryant make their debuts late in the year and do enough to be assumed as starters in 2015.

c) Samardzija is traded at the deadline as no extension can be reached.

d) Lake plays himself out of starting consideration

e) The mass of bullpen arms we have accumulating can be projected as average or maybe a bit better

 

So your starters going into 2015 is:

 

???/Sweeney/???

Bryant/Castro/Baez/Rizzo

Castillo

 

Wood/Jackson/Arrieta/???/???

 

Just completely ballparking, you have $50m committed there after arbitration awards and filling out the bench. I'd think all four of those question marks needs to be filled with above-average players if you are going to be competitive, right?

Guest

Guest

Guests
Posted
Posted
It's obviously *really* hard to predict what is going to happen a year from now, and all of these projections have error bars that will make it moot.

 

But let's assume

a) We don't get Tanaka and are content with a do-nothing offseason

b) Baez and Bryant make their debuts late in the year and do enough to be assumed as starters in 2015.

c) Samardzija is traded at the deadline as no extension can be reached.

d) Lake plays himself out of starting consideration

e) The mass of bullpen arms we have accumulating can be projected as average or maybe a bit better

 

So your starters going into 2015 is:

 

???/Sweeney/???

Bryant/Castro/Baez/Rizzo

Castillo

 

Wood/Jackson/Arrieta/???/???

 

Just completely ballparking, you have $50m committed there after arbitration awards and filling out the bench. I'd think all four of those question marks needs to be filled with above-average players if you are going to be competitive, right?

An awful lot would depend on how castro bounces back and if Rizzo shows growth. That could be the best offensive infield in baseball in 2015 (or maybe in 2016 or so). It's probably more likely that 2B is Alcantara, 3B is Baez and RF is Bryant and you've got three ???. I'm presuming that at least one of those pitching ??? gets filled from the Shark trade.

Hairyducked Idiot All-Star

Hairyducked Idiot

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted

An awful lot would depend on how castro bounces back and if Rizzo shows growth. That could be the best offensive infield in baseball in 2015 (or maybe in 2016 or so). It's probably more likely that 2B is Alcantara, 3B is Baez and RF is Bryant and you've got three ???. I'm presuming that at least one of those pitching ??? gets filled from the Shark trade.

 

If Rizzo gets a little better and Castro regresses to the mean:

 

???/Sweeney/Bryant

Baez/Castro/Alcantara/Rizzo

Castillo

 

Wood/Jackson/Arrieta/ProspectfromSmardzj/???

OK bullpen

 

That team is certainly better than the last few years, but it doesn't exactly strike fear into the rest of the division. That's a "80-82, we're showing progress!" kind of team unless it gets some good luck or the ???s are superstars.

Guest

Guest

Guests
Posted
Posted

An awful lot would depend on how castro bounces back and if Rizzo shows growth. That could be the best offensive infield in baseball in 2015 (or maybe in 2016 or so). It's probably more likely that 2B is Alcantara, 3B is Baez and RF is Bryant and you've got three ???. I'm presuming that at least one of those pitching ??? gets filled from the Shark trade.

 

If Rizzo gets a little better and Castro regresses to the mean:

 

???/Sweeney/Bryant

Baez/Castro/Alcantara/Rizzo

Castillo

 

Wood/Jackson/Arrieta/ProspectfromSmardzj/???

OK bullpen

 

That team is certainly better than the last few years, but it doesn't exactly strike fear into the rest of the division. That's a "80-82, we're showing progress!" kind of team unless it gets some good luck or the ???s are superstars.

All of these things are very realistic in themselves:

 

  • Castro returns to his 2011-12 self in 2014 and hits a shade better than that in 2015
  • Rizzo grows from his 2012-13 performance and hits around .260/.355/.500
  • Baez is the beast he has shown in the minors. He adjusts to the majors in 2014 and hits .270/.330/.550 in 2015
  • Bryant is Beast II with a similar line in 2015
  • Arismendy becomes a table setter with great speed and good on base skills
  • Castillo continues to be good at getting on base

 

If (big if) 2/3 of those things happen, the team will be in great shape on offense. Enough should happen that they should be in at least good shape there.

 

What we really need is starting pitching if we are going to come anything close to contending in 2015. That's why I really don't care what they have to spend to get Tanaka. They need to get Tanaka.

Hairyducked Idiot All-Star

Hairyducked Idiot

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
What we really need is starting pitching if we are going to come anything close to contending in 2015. That's why I really don't care what they have to spend to get Tanaka. They need to get Tanaka.

 

It really does come down to that. One player shouldn't make such a big difference in the medium-term projection, but in this case, he does. He just fits a hole too perfectly that will be har dto fill otherwise.

Guest

Guest

Guests
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Posted
What we really need is starting pitching if we are going to come anything close to contending in 2015. That's why I really don't care what they have to spend to get Tanaka. They need to get Tanaka.

 

Exactly.

Gilby First Round Pick

Gilby

Verified Member
Posted
Posted
Boston Theo would have looked at how badly we needed Tanaka and dropped 8/$200m by now.

 

I'm sure he'd love to do that right now.

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Guest

Guests
Posted
Posted

Dan Szymborski covers 6 bounceback candidates for this year: http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/10285742/albert-pujols-six-bounceback-candidates-2014-season-mlb

 

Half of them are Cubs.

 

Edwin Jackson, Chicago Cubs

2014 projection: 11-11 record | 3.99 ERA | 173.2 IP | 54 BB | 139 K | 2.1 WAR

 

As hard as it is to believe, Jackson turned just 30 years old a few months ago. Though he never became a star, he has been one of the most dependable inning-eaters of his generation, posting around league-average numbers while rarely missing significant time.

 

That's why last winter the rebuilding Cubs signed Jackson to a four-year, $52 million deal (not to push them toward a long-shot pennant run, but to simply eat 180 innings and not be terrible). Jackson still ate the innings, but came down with a nasty case of indigestion, putting up a 4.98 ERA, the worst since his first full season in the majors in 2007.

 

The good news is that Jackson's peripheral numbers barely moved in 2013; his 3.79 FIP did not look out of place considering the 3.85, 3.55 and 3.86 FIPs he posted the previous three seasons, respectively. Jackson's velocity was down last year, but not alarmingly so, and there's no reason to think that he can't return to his historically serviceable self in 2014.

 

Starlin Castro and Anthony Rizzo, Chicago Cubs

'14 projection (Castro): .280/.319/.413 | 13 HR | 3.0 WAR

'14 projection (Rizzo): .255/.336/.464 | 27 HR | 2.9 WAR

 

Going into the 2013 season, the thing about Castro that gave fans unease was his occasional lapses defensively at shortstop. Nobody imagined that Castro, a career .297/.336/.425 hitter in the majors from ages 20-22, would also become a major problem offensively, hitting just .245/.284/.347.

 

Looking at xBABIP, which estimates BABIP based on a hitter's advance batted-ball data, Castro's line-drive rate, ground-ball rate and other stats suggest he hit as a .329 BABIP hitter would, nearly 40 points above his actual .290 BABIP in 2013. And given that he won't turn 24 until near the end of spring training, it's too soon to panic on a player who has accomplished a lot at a young age.

 

Rizzo was in a similar boat in 2013, seeing his BABIP drop from .310 in 2012 to .258 last year, despite a .313 xBABIP. Maybe the BABIP gods just hate the Cubs? Until some divine sign occurs that shows these two Cubs cornerstones are truly deteriorating, expect both to redeem themselves in 2014.

Sammy Sofa GOAT

Sammy Sofa

Old-Timey Member
Posted
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One the one hand, yay, but on the other...5 years into his career I don't think any of us were thinking we'd be relieved if Castro pulled off a 3 WAR season.
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Guest

Guests
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Derek Holland fell down his steps, because he tripped over his dog. Named Wrigley.

 

No... it's because he was playing hockey in his backyard makeshift ice rink.

UMFan83 GOAT

UMFan83

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted

LMAO, from Jesse Rodgers latest chat:

 

Lage (Canyon Country, CA)

 

Mr. Rogers, I am ten years old and potentially be a fifth generate Cubs fan. It is killing my mother and my grandfather that I can't buy into the losing. Please give me a good reason or two on why should buy into a life time of misery. My uncle even gave me a Wrigley Field thing for Christmas. I hope you answer this question but have to wait until I get home from school. I like the Yankees most.

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