2014 Draft Discussion

[SouthSideRyan]

You really think he'd last until our 2nd pick?

[jersey cubs fan]

You really think he'd last until our 2nd pick?

 

A guy currently going through TJS? I would assume yes. Unless your plan was to lowball him so much that he would refuse to sign and then you'd get your pick again next year.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Giolito went No. 16, but that was a HSer with better stuff.

[Guest]

Manaea didn't have anything as bad as TJS, and he fell to 34. I could see Hoffman falling to 45, although it would require some fancy financial footwork to make sure that risk pays off.

[Guest]

You really think he'd last until our 2nd pick?

 

A guy currently going through TJS? I would assume yes. Unless your plan was to lowball him so much that he would refuse to sign and then you'd get your pick again next year.

 

I'm not sure. Giolito and Manaea went higher but their medicals were less sure than Hoffman's now (Giolito needed TJS but it wasn't determined until he signed).

[Guest]

Pierce Johnson wasn't as well thought of as Hoffman, Giolito or Manaea but he fell from about 20 to the 40s despite coming back healthy and pitching well before the draft.

[Guest]

One reason I liked Hoffman was that he didn't have past medical issues and ECU wasn't killing his arm like, say, NC State, UNC or Rice does.

 

@aaronfitt: Jeff Hoffman pitch counts by start: 87, 107, 109, 80, 103, 98, 90, 116, 105, 117. Restrained use, every 7 days. Still got hurt. Who knows?

[davell]

There's no way he lasts to 45. Someone will take a shot on talent alone. Likely a team that has multiple picks ahead of us and can spread out money over a few guys. If he lasts outside the actual 1st, I'll be shocked.

 

And I'm fairly sure the Nats thought that Giolito was likely going to need TJS prior to drafting him.

[Guest]

Kiley McDaniel[/url]"]ANOTHER UPDATE: While I was adding the Bukauskas news to this article, it broke that ECU righty Jeff Hoffman is getting Tommy John surgery (and was broken by multiple writers at the same time, at the same time as I also received the news). I've now updated the rankings to reflect this. Early reaction from scouts matches my own: Hoffman is still arguably the top talent in the draft, so this surgery just makes him more of a high school-type talent in the timetable and risk, so putting him at or near the top of the 5 to 24 tier is the right move. Where he gets picked and for how big of a bonus is a matter I'll tackle in my next article, about the strategy of the clubs with the top few picks.

 

Kiley literally just switched Gordon and Hoffman between 4 and 5 on his official rankings.

[weis21]

[expletive]!

[imb]

Kiley McDaniel[/url]"]ANOTHER UPDATE: While I was adding the Bukauskas news to this article, it broke that ECU righty Jeff Hoffman is getting Tommy John surgery (and was broken by multiple writers at the same time, at the same time as I also received the news).

 

http://img.gawkerassets.com/img/185cl94chbm8dgif/original.gif

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

http://i.imgur.com/uwgAx4T.jpg

[Guest]

Chris Crawford's most recent mock: http://mlbdraftinsider.com/2014/05/the-mock-volume-iv/

 

1. Aiken

2. Kolek

3. Rodon

4. Hoffman

 

Updated: http://mlbdraftinsider.com/2014/05/the-mock-volume-iv/

 

Cubs get Gordon, Jackson moves up to 5, Hoffman falls to Boston at 33.

[davell]

If the top 3 pitchers are off the board, I definitely take a signability guy and use the savings later on for high upside arms. I prefer Holmes at the spot myself, but they all should be willing to under slot.

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

I'd rather take Nola than Holmes. :blush:

[Splendid Splinter]

I'd rather take Nola than Holmes. :blush:

 

You're not the only one.

[Guest]

Baseball America[/url]"]Because of his immense talent, Hoffman could still factor prominently in the draft, potentially playing the role of wild card.

 

In 2012, the top prep righthander, Lucas Giolito, suffered a sprained ulnar collateral ligament in March, ending his season (although he was able to throw). Giolito went to the Nationals with the 16th pick and signed for $2.93 million before having Tommy John surgery.

 

In 2013, Indiana State lefthander Sean Manaea entered the season as a potential top three pick, much like Hoffman. But he had an injury-marred season and had a torn labrum in his hip entering the draft that clouded his status. Manaea went to the Royals with the first pick in the competitive balance round (No. 34 overall) and signed for $3.55 million, the fifth-largest bonus of any 2013 draftee, after the Royals signed Hunter Dozier to a below-slot deal with their first pick (No. 8 overall).

 

A similar template remains a possibility for Hoffman, as there a few of teams loaded with the necessary assets, picks and financial capital. Of the five teams with the largest signing bonus pools, four have additional picks:

 

Marlins: $14.19 signing bonus pool (largest pool). The Marlins have the second overall pick and four of the top 43, with three in an eight-pick range from 36-43.

 

Astros: $13.36 bonus pool (second largest). The Astros have the first pick and three of the top 42 picks. Houston saved money ($2.4 million below slot) on the first overall pick in 2012 (Carlos Correa) and spread the savings around the No. 41 pick (Lance McCullers Jr.), who received nearly double the slot value at $2.50 million, and fourth-rounder Rio Ruiz, who received nearly a million and a half more than slot value with a $1.85 million signing bonus.

 

Blue Jays: $9.46 bonus pool (fourth largest). The Blue Jays have the No. 9 and No. 11 picks, with a third selection at No. 49. No team has valued discount senior savers in the top 10 rounds of the last two drafts as the Blue Jays have. In 2012, when the Blue Jays had seven selections in the first three rounds, they drafted seven seniors from rounds 4-10, the most of any team. Toronto tied for the most seniors in 2013 with four.

 

Royals: $8.60 bonus pool (fifth largest). The Royals’ first pick is No. 17 and they have three of the top 40 and four of the top 56, all with picks values of more than $1 million.

[Guest]

Draft him later.

 

ETA: With Giolito and Manaea as precedence, I can't imagine he'll make it to 45.

 

Weren't fresh off TJS on draft day, though, right?

[Cubswin11]

If they don't feel Jackson or Gordon are worthy of the 4 pick/worth going full slot on I guess I'd be fine with taking whoever out of Beede/Fedde/Nola are willing to sign for the most under slot in the scenario that Aiken/Kolek/Rodon go 1/2/3.

[Tryptamine]

God, please let one of Aiken/Kolek/Rodon slide. Otherwise this is going to be a really disappointing draft day.

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

Rodon's probably a few starts away from tearing his UCL as well. Still rather have Aiken or Kolek.

[RammyFanny]

The Cubs are no longer looking at Hoffman at No. 4, according to a source familiar with the team’s thinking, but would consider him at No. 45, if he falls into the second round.

 

Industry sources say the White Sox are targeting two prep pitchers with the No. 3 overall pick – Tyler Kolek and Brady Aiken – though it’s unclear if they’ll slip past the Houston Astros and Miami Marlins.

http://www.csnchicago.com/cubs/mlb-draft-cubs-cross-hoffman-list-no-4-pick

 

Just draft Nick Gordon or something, Hahn.

[SouthSideRyan]

Rodon's probably a few starts away from tearing his UCL as well. Still rather have Aiken or Kolek.

 

They're all going to wind up with it by time they're 25 anyway. That's why Hoffman won't slip past any number of [expletive] picks separating the 1st round from the 2nd.

[Guest]

Draft him later.

 

ETA: With Giolito and Manaea as precedence, I can't imagine he'll make it to 45.

 

Weren't fresh off TJS on draft day, though, right?

 

Yeah, and that makes me feel like they were bigger question marks than Hoffman is now.

[Guest]

Draft him later.

 

ETA: With Giolito and Manaea as precedence, I can't imagine he'll make it to 45.

 

Weren't fresh off TJS on draft day, though, right?

 

Yeah, and that makes me feel like they were bigger question marks than Hoffman is now.

 

Bigger question marks? Perhaps...but isn't a big part of the question, "Are they going to need TJS soon?"