2014 Draft Discussion

[Guest]

I knew who was in Tim's link before I clicked it.

[jersey cubs fan]

I knew who was in Tim's link before I clicked it.

 

Because it replaced the naea with ownl?

[Guest]

I knew who was in Tim's link before I clicked it.

 

Because it replaced the naea with ownl?

 

On the phone, the only letters I saw, "ownl."

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

http://i.imgur.com/uwgAx4T.jpg

[Tryptamine]

http://i.imgur.com/uwgAx4T.jpg

 

I'd be willing to place a pretty large bet on that as well.

[gscool89]

http://i.imgur.com/uwgAx4T.jpg

Have no problem with this if he's the BPA

[Guest]

@kileymcd: Ole Miss commit LHP Foster Griffin was 91-94, touching 95 mph today in showdown with UNC commit 2B Forrest Wall. Might both go in 1st round.

[Guest]

Kiley McDaniel has a draft top 116 out: http://sbb.scout.com/2/1400460.html

 

1. Aiken

2. Hoffman

3. Rodon

4. Kolek

5. Gordon

6. Holmes

7. Nola

8. Pentecost

9. Zimmer

10. Jackson

 

The real good stuff is in the intro.

 

This Year's Draft

 

Also linked above is my pre-season top 53, which I did in a tiers system. I opted not to do that this time since the information on players is clearer, but it also wouldn't help define the talent of the players much better than a straight list. I'd have a top tier of three (Aiken, Hoffman, Rodon), then a tier of one (Kolek), then would have players 5 through 24 all pretty similar in value, with it hard to see where to split that third tier of 20 players. I would take last year's top two picks (Mark Appel and Kris Bryant) as amateurs over anyone in this year's draft, but after that the two crops are similar in overall talent.

 

The effect we should expect from this distribution of talent is that the top 4 players go in the top 4 picks, then a bunch of below-slot deals get cut. There are already rumors that my #5 player, Nick Gordon, will cut a below slot deal with the Twins at pick #5 with his father, former big league reliever Tom Gordon, acting as Nick's advisor. Every player/advisor in this range knows they could slip to the bottom if they lose a few coin flips in split war rooms, so they are incentivized to market themselves as signable because if they slip 5-10 picks, even an over-slot deal at a lower pick would likely be for less money.

 

I'll post something later about the decision that Houston has at #1, but it's fair to say the industry would have Rodon 2nd and Hoffman 3rd or 4th right now. Hoffman is expected to return not this weekend but next from elbow soreness and he could still make or lose millions based on how crisp he looks in those final few starts. Other examples where I differ from the industry consensus include Missouri righty Brett Graves, who I have at 71 but is expected to go in the 30-50 pick range and Arkansas second baseman Brian Anderson, who I have at 37 but the industry probably has him 10-20 spots lower.

 

He also touches on details and the reasoning behind his rankings and also names a few guys who the industry already knows have signability questions.

[Guest]

@keithlaw: Potential first-round pick @JBukauskas22 sent scouts a letter last night saying he's going to attend UNC rather than sign with an MLB team.

 

He reclassified from 2015 to 2014 specifically to go to UNC a year early (he's a bit old for the class of 2015 plus a good student), then blew up when he started regularly working in the upper 90s.

[Guest]

Chris Crawford's most recent mock: http://mlbdraftinsider.com/2014/05/the-mock-volume-iv/

 

1. Aiken

2. Kolek

3. Rodon

4. Hoffman

[Guest]

Can anyone help with what BP has for the Cubs at 1.4?

 

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=23506#.U2orwcai2Qw.twitter

[Bobson Dugnutt]

Can anyone help with what BP has for the Cubs at 1.4?

 

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=23506#.U2orwcai2Qw.twitter

 

1:4 Chicago Cubs

Making Selection: Jason Parks

Selects: Jeff Hoffman, RHP, East Carolina

Scouting Video

 

Arguably the top all-around arm in the class, Hoffman’s combination of size, plus athleticism, plus arsenal and feel for craft has pushed him up draft boards this spring, with several scouts putting a 1:1 label on the 21-year-old righty. While a few other arms in the class might offer more sex appeal—be it because of the suggestive nature of their elite fastballs (Kolek) or the sought-after hand with which they throw (Aiken/Rodon), Hoffman is perhaps the safest bet to bump his head on his tool-based ceiling. With a double-plus fastball that routinely works in the 94-96 range, touching as high as 98, backed up by a plus curveball with big action from an 11-to-5 shape and a hard, fading changeup in the mid-upper 80s, it’s not like Hoffman’s stuff is of the soft and subtle variety; rather, his raw stuff suggests a future as a no. 2 starter. But it’s the total package that makes Hoffman a legitimate frontline candidate, a profile that starts with size and stuff but finds game application through his pitchability and poise. Despite several enticing names still on the board at the no. 4 pick, grabbing Hoffman is a no-brainer that will start to pay off at the major-league level at some point during the 2015 season.

 

Other Players Considered (in order): Grant Holmes (video), Touki Toussaint (video), Aaron Nola (video)

 

[Guest]

Thanks!

[RammyFanny]

Parks thinks Hoffman will be up in 2015? Dang. Get healthy, damnit.

[Guest]

At this point does anyone here want the Cubs to draft Hoffman? I just want to get the opinion of people who know more about this stuff than I so I will know how to feel about it should the Cubs daft him.

[Guest]

At this point does anyone here want the Cubs to draft Hoffman? I just want to get the opinion of people who know more about this stuff than I so I will know how to feel about it should the Cubs daft him.

Before the injury, Hoffman was my favorite for 1.4, moreso than Rodon, Aiken or Kolek. Now, I'm pretty wary.

[jersey cubs fan]

At this point does anyone here want the Cubs to draft Hoffman? I just want to get the opinion of people who know more about this stuff than I so I will know how to feel about it should the Cubs daft him.

Before the injury, Hoffman was my favorite for 1.4, moreso than Rodon, Aiken or Kolek. Now, I'm pretty wary.

 

I've been following from a distance and share that opinion.

[Tyrant]

Parks thinks Hoffman will be up in 2015? Dang. Get healthy, damnit.

 

not anymore

 

@keithlaw RHP Jeff Hoffman of @ECUBaseball will have Tommy John surgery next week. Had been a probable top 4 pick in the draft before injury.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Parks thinks Hoffman will be up in 2015? Dang. Get healthy, damnit.

 

not anymore

 

@keithlaw RHP Jeff Hoffman of @ECUBaseball will have Tommy John surgery next week. Had been a probable top 4 pick in the draft before injury.

 

Dodged that bullet.

[imb]

all of those guys share enough red flags that it's really a crapshoot imo

[imb]

Parks thinks Hoffman will be up in 2015? Dang. Get healthy, damnit.

 

not anymore

 

@keithlaw RHP Jeff Hoffman of @ECUBaseball will have Tommy John surgery next week. Had been a probable top 4 pick in the draft before injury.

 

holy [expletive], how sad.

[jersey cubs fan]

well that bumps up a bat.

[Guest]

Draft him later.

 

ETA: With Giolito and Manaea as precedence, I can't imagine he'll make it to 45.

[bukie]

He's still probably the 4th best talent in the draft; now he's just available in a later round.

 

Really diminishes the chances of Rodon making it to 4 though unless he has another numbers setback, or some hitter hits well enough to make him a preferable target anyway.

[jersey cubs fan]

Draft him later.

 

Is it possible to draft a lesser prospect in the first and this guy in the 2nd somehow split the 1/2 bonuses between them? What would that look like?