The 2012 Offseason Thread

[Sammy Sofa]

They haven't signed the extension.

[Guest]

They haven't signed the extension.

It was a stupid idea in the first place.

[Guest]

I'll start accepting the apologies any time people are ready.

 

Felix can miss a full season, start declining at 30 and decline at double the expected rate and still put up 30 WAR over 7 years.

Or struggle to play through the elbow issue for part of this year, put up bad results, go under the knife, miss the better part of two seasons as a result, then not be the same when he comes back. TJS is much safer than it used to be, but I sure as heck wouldn't bet $175M on it.

 

This also emphasizes the point CCP was making in terms of the timing. Seattle is gaining very little by doing the extension at this point and accepting a whole lot of risk.

 

The point is that Felix doesn't need to hit the 95th percentile in order to be worth an enormous amount of money. Obviously you don't just say "nope he's worth 175 million dollars even if he shows up to ST with his arm gnawed off by a stray dog", and yes, this isn't a steal on the Mariners part. The contract is more along the lines of "not ideal, but possibly necessary because of the circumstances" rather than "that's a stupid amount of money he'll never come close to earning, TINSTAAPP 4 LYFE"

[davell]

This makes me potentially happy. No extension means we could still conceivably trade for him next year. Too few of this type of pitcher, take the chance when you can. Have trust in your medical staff. My guess is he still gets the extension though, once its sorted out.

[Sammy Sofa]

They haven't signed the extension.

It was a stupid idea in the first place.

 

Nah.

[Guest]

TT - There's a big difference between TNSTAAPP and wagering 5/$135 that doesn't even kick in until two years afterwards.

[Rob]

It seems the big money cable deals may have more an inflationary effect on salaries than I had anticipated. I'm gonna reserve judgment on the Felix deal. I don't particularly like it, but I can't say it's going to be good or bad.

[Tyrant]

Or struggle to play through the elbow issue for part of this year, put up bad results, go under the knife, miss the better part of two seasons as a result, then not be the same when he comes back. TJS is much safer than it used to be, but I sure as heck wouldn't bet $175M on it.

 

You can name worst-case scenarios for every contract out there but at some point you need good players on a team to compete.

[Guest]

Or struggle to play through the elbow issue for part of this year, put up bad results, go under the knife, miss the better part of two seasons as a result, then not be the same when he comes back. TJS is much safer than it used to be, but I sure as heck wouldn't bet $175M on it.

 

You can name worst-case scenarios for every contract out there but at some point you need good players on a team to compete.

Believe it or not, it's possible to get good players without giving out bad contracts.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

There's more than just the cable deals putting inflationary pressure on salaries. The new CBA also funneled a lot of money into the majors that used to go to amateur players.

[abuck1220]

yep everyone who said the mariners should give felix $175 mil without examining his throwing arm apologize to tim.

[NonProfitCow]

Or struggle to play through the elbow issue for part of this year, put up bad results, go under the knife, miss the better part of two seasons as a result, then not be the same when he comes back. TJS is much safer than it used to be, but I sure as heck wouldn't bet $175M on it.

 

You can name worst-case scenarios for every contract out there but at some point you need good players on a team to compete.

Believe it or not, it's possible to get good players without giving out bad contracts.

Possible, but pretty hard to do.

[XZero771679666304]

Or struggle to play through the elbow issue for part of this year, put up bad results, go under the knife, miss the better part of two seasons as a result, then not be the same when he comes back. TJS is much safer than it used to be, but I sure as heck wouldn't bet $175M on it.

 

You can name worst-case scenarios for every contract out there but at some point you need good players on a team to compete.

Believe it or not, it's possible to get good players without giving out bad contracts.

Possible, but pretty hard to do.

 

I might argue that it's possible to get good players without giving out awful contracts, but not bad ones. It's semantics, but virtually every FA contract is an overpay. We all know that there is inherent risk in any contract, it is the most important variable. Where I agree somewhat with Tim is in that the risk assumed when giving long contracts to pitchers is much higher than with position players, and being more hesitant to give them out, even to elite talents, is a prudent position to take.

[jersey cubs fan]

Or struggle to play through the elbow issue for part of this year, put up bad results, go under the knife, miss the better part of two seasons as a result, then not be the same when he comes back. TJS is much safer than it used to be, but I sure as heck wouldn't bet $175M on it.

 

You can name worst-case scenarios for every contract out there but at some point you need good players on a team to compete.

Believe it or not, it's possible to get good players without giving out bad contracts.

 

But it's impossible to get great players without paying exorbitant prices.

[Tyrant]

Or struggle to play through the elbow issue for part of this year, put up bad results, go under the knife, miss the better part of two seasons as a result, then not be the same when he comes back. TJS is much safer than it used to be, but I sure as heck wouldn't bet $175M on it.

 

You can name worst-case scenarios for every contract out there but at some point you need good players on a team to compete.

Believe it or not, it's possible to get good players without giving out bad contracts.

 

Again, the World Series isn't awarded to whichever team has the fewest bad contracts. Pitchers are all inherently risky but you need a lot of them to field a baseball team. It's possible that someone could get lucky and repeatedly hit on a bunch of short-term, low-risk deals year after year but that's probably not the best way to consistently build a franchise.

[davell]

Our guys have the right method. Draft pitching, pitching, and more pitching. At some point, I'm fairly confident they'll hit on an ace. But there are so few of those types in baseball, the potential reward outweighs the risk for me. We can afford to take the risk. 20 mill of dead payroll should never keep us from fielding a really good team, once the pipeline of minor leaguers has been filled.

[Guest]

Or struggle to play through the elbow issue for part of this year, put up bad results, go under the knife, miss the better part of two seasons as a result, then not be the same when he comes back. TJS is much safer than it used to be, but I sure as heck wouldn't bet $175M on it.

 

You can name worst-case scenarios for every contract out there but at some point you need good players on a team to compete.

Believe it or not, it's possible to get good players without giving out bad contracts.

 

But it's impossible to get great players without paying exorbitant prices.

How much is Kershaw making again?

[abuck1220]

pretty much every successful team in the last decade has had its fair share of huge/bad contracts, right? the exception being tampa bay, who has played in one WS and won zero. last year's two WS teams were both littered with contracts that would break the rule of "pay for future performance, not past performance."

 

there is no correlation between lack of huge/bad contracts and success.

[davell]

Yeah Tim. And he's a FA in 2 years. You letting him walk?

[abuck1220]

Or struggle to play through the elbow issue for part of this year, put up bad results, go under the knife, miss the better part of two seasons as a result, then not be the same when he comes back. TJS is much safer than it used to be, but I sure as heck wouldn't bet $175M on it.

 

You can name worst-case scenarios for every contract out there but at some point you need good players on a team to compete.

Believe it or not, it's possible to get good players without giving out bad contracts.

 

But it's impossible to get great players without paying exorbitant prices.

How much is Kershaw making again?

 

yes, the dodgers. not overpaying for anybody and winning tons of world series. they've got it figured out.

[SouthSideRyan]

Yeah Tim. And he's a FA in 2 years. You letting him walk?

 

You signing him after its found out that he had his arm amputated??

[Guest]

Oh, please. Goony said it is impossible to get great players without paying exorbitant prices. I used an example to shoot that down as obvious nonsense.

[jersey cubs fan]

Or struggle to play through the elbow issue for part of this year, put up bad results, go under the knife, miss the better part of two seasons as a result, then not be the same when he comes back. TJS is much safer than it used to be, but I sure as heck wouldn't bet $175M on it.

 

You can name worst-case scenarios for every contract out there but at some point you need good players on a team to compete.

Believe it or not, it's possible to get good players without giving out bad contracts.

 

But it's impossible to get great players without paying exorbitant prices.

How much is Kershaw making again?

 

I don't know, does your google not work? Nice job there too, by the way, bringing up a 24 year old pre-free agency player. Really brought the point home like you did with the Pedro Martinez commentary.

 

I amend my statement to be, "All you have to do is keep losing enough so you can draft in the top 10 every year and then make sure you hit on an ace with that pick everytime, or pay exorbitant prices."

[jersey cubs fan]

Oh, please. Goony said it is impossible to get great players without paying exorbitant prices. I used an example to shoot that down as obvious nonsense.

 

That was quite possibly the stupidest example you could have possibly used.

[Cubswin11]

Oh, please. Goony said it is impossible to get great players without paying exorbitant prices. I used an example to shoot that down as obvious nonsense.

So we're only going to sign/trade for mediocre-good FA (Jackson, Hairston, Dejesus, etc) and all of the great players need to come from the system so that we get them on cheap contracts before they hit FA and then let them walk and if we fail to produce them we just won't look to acquire any?