The 2012 Offseason Thread

[jersey cubs fan]

Yeah, you can have 4 years of this sub .700 OPS second baseman who you can maybe make into a ss for your top 10 in all of baseball pitching prospect or i guess you can have just a measly two years of a same-aged actual SS who posted an 800 ops as a 23-year old and once hit 25 home runs in a season.

 

Well it's a good thing fielding doesn't matter at all, because then they look much further apart than they actually are.

 

Barney's transition to SS isn't a slam dunk

 

That's fair. Just pointing out that it's not exactly intellectually honest to compare them as offensive players only, especially when Cabrera is a pretty [expletive] fielder.

 

It's also not intellectually honest to treat defensive metrics as reliable.

[javy knows my name]

Nope, I misread that. I thought it was ridiculous, but indicated just how scarce 3B help is this offseason.

[Little Slide Rooter]

According to the Trib, the White Sox have agreed to a 3 year deal w/ Keppinger worth 12M TOTAL. That's a damn good deal, if accurate.

 

Wasn't it being reported that he was asking 12 per?

 

No, 3/12 total was the rumor of what he wanted. I think with as much buzz as he was getting some thought he might exceed that though.

 

Sounds like they plan on using him as an everyday 3B. With this in mind, any interest in buying low in Brent Morel as a buy low candidate if it's on the table?

[Guest]

*walks out of door backwards*

You shouldn't be ashamed, defensive metrics are about as reliable as a crack whore. I like Barney more than most here, but comparing him and Cabrerra as SS is stupid.

[Tracer Bullet]

According to the Trib, the White Sox have agreed to a 3 year deal w/ Keppinger worth 12M TOTAL. That's a damn good deal, if accurate.

 

Wasn't it being reported that he was asking 12 per?

 

Thought this was a slide Castro slide post for a minute

[Tracer Bullet]

*walks out of door backwards*

You shouldn't be ashamed, defensive metrics are about as reliable as a crack whore. I like Barney more than most here, but comparing him and Cabrerra as SS is stupid.

 

Comparing 2 players is stupid? Um that makes no sense at all.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

We don't need to trust defensive metrics down to the decimal point to know that Barney would be a pretty good defensive SS and Cabrera isn't, so that closes some of the offensive gap.

[Guest]

We don't need to trust defensive metrics down to the decimal point to know that Barney would be a pretty good defensive SS and Cabrera isn't, so that closes some of the offensive gap.

 

Exactly. Whether you believe the number is 13.5 or not is nearly irrelevant. All indicators(scouting reports, basic stats, advanced stats) are that Barney is a terrific defender and has been his entire career. Similarly, indicators are that Cabrera is not very good defensively and hasn't been for most/all of his career. Make your own judgement as to whether that closes the offensive gap, but the "defensive metrics aren't perfect, so there's no way an offensive gap could be closed by them" is just anti-logic.

[bukie]

We don't need to trust defensive metrics down to the decimal point to know that Barney would be a pretty good defensive SS and Cabrera isn't, so that closes some of the offensive gap.

 

Exactly. Whether you believe the number is 13.5 or not is nearly irrelevant. All indicators(scouting reports, basic stats, advanced stats) are that Barney is a terrific defender and has been his entire career. Similarly, indicators are that Cabrera is not very good defensively and hasn't been for most/all of his career. Make your own judgement as to whether that closes the offensive gap, but the "defensive metrics aren't perfect, so there's no way an offensive gap could be closed by them" is just anti-logic.

What, now you're saying you won't accept the argument of "defensive numbers can't be accurately objectified, so they have no comparative value"?

[Cubswin11]

Chavez to the D'Backs. 1 year $3mm

[SABR Gamer]

On my phone so I'm not sure if anyone posted this before, but reading at PSD has left me feeling a bit unsettled in regards to Theo.

 

 

 

Think this season is the one where come July, you'll start to see a serious asset uptick. From what I'm hearing, they (FO) are still attempting to weed everything out that they feel needs to be before they'll be ready to seriously contend. Also heard that Theo was a bit taken aback by just how much infrastructure work needed to be done and is open to a 2 year extension to compensate for 'lost time'...

 

Then a poster (actually I think it was Kyle) said that reading that made him feel as if Theo is planning on ditching after the contract, and not stick around for the "10-year plan"

 

Felt the same however I was assured it had more to do with putting the Ricketts families mind at ease than anything else... Heard some believe that once Henry sells the Sox (which apparently is more of a when not if) that the lure of going back home and righting his wrongs would be too appealing for Epstein to pass up... I for one tend to believe that as well... Have always had the feeling that Hoyer and McLeod are the long termers here, a feeling I felt was backed up by the signing of Scott Harris whom I've heard is already a guy around baseball that most feel will be the next wunderkind 28/30 year old GM...

 

Both quotes are from ABTY7. Sorry again if that's been discussed. It worries me though. Why is he thinking about going back to Boston? Why is he deciding not to stick around here?

[mookie]

Personally, I am just worried about not sucking.

[Guest]

On my phone so I'm not sure if anyone posted this before, but reading at PSD has left me feeling a bit unsettled in regards to Theo.

 

 

 

Think this season is the one where come July, you'll start to see a serious asset uptick. From what I'm hearing, they (FO) are still attempting to weed everything out that they feel needs to be before they'll be ready to seriously contend. Also heard that Theo was a bit taken aback by just how much infrastructure work needed to be done and is open to a 2 year extension to compensate for 'lost time'...

 

Then a poster (actually I think it was Kyle) said that reading that made him feel as if Theo is planning on ditching after the contract, and not stick around for the "10-year plan"

 

Felt the same however I was assured it had more to do with putting the Ricketts families mind at ease than anything else... Heard some believe that once Henry sells the Sox (which apparently is more of a when not if) that the lure of going back home and righting his wrongs would be too appealing for Epstein to pass up... I for one tend to believe that as well... Have always had the feeling that Hoyer and McLeod are the long termers here, a feeling I felt was backed up by the signing of Scott Harris whom I've heard is already a guy around baseball that most feel will be the next wunderkind 28/30 year old GM...

 

Both quotes are from ABTY7. Sorry again if that's been discussed. It worries me though. Why is he thinking about going back to Boston? Why is he deciding not to stick around here?

 

I saw that, and the more I think about it, I wouldn't really worry about it. Sounds like a bunch of hearsay. Much too early to even think about that.

 

I mean, who's to say new ownership would even be trying to hire him back when his contract is up?

[Hairyducked Idiot]

The weird thing that I said was that it sort of implied that Epstein wanted the option to get out after five years, which makes the Cubs' current plan even more odd.

[SABR Gamer]

The weird thing that I said was that it sort of implied that Epstein wanted the option to get out after five years, which makes the Cubs' current plan even more odd.

 

Agreed. What is he going for? One shot to win it all?

 

ETA: not that I have a problem with building from the farm. I like the general direction we are heading with Theo.

 

Yes it's frustrating having to wait multiple seasons for it to come together, but if it pays off then it was worth it.

 

I don't get it from his point of view though if he's ditching after 5 years.

 

I agree it's probably just speculation and shouldn't be read into too much, but it still makes me a little worried.

 

TR seems to really love Theo. I would be surprised if he didn't want Theo back after the contract unless some sort of worst case scenario becomes a reality.

[jersey cubs fan]

We don't need to trust defensive metrics down to the decimal point to know that Barney would be a pretty good defensive SS and Cabrera isn't, so that closes some of the offensive gap.

 

Exactly. Whether you believe the number is 13.5 or not is nearly irrelevant. All indicators(scouting reports, basic stats, advanced stats) are that Barney is a terrific defender and has been his entire career. Similarly, indicators are that Cabrera is not very good defensively and hasn't been for most/all of his career. Make your own judgement as to whether that closes the offensive gap, but the "defensive metrics aren't perfect, so there's no way an offensive gap could be closed by them" is just anti-logic.

 

And yet the point still stands that unquantifiable defensive advantages plus the theoretical value of more team control are not going to change the value of these two players to the extent that you were insinuated it could or should.

[jersey cubs fan]

So a little over a year in and with no improvements to the major league team Theo is already using back channels to pressure Tom for a contract extension.

 

That seems odd.

[UMFan83]

Honestly, I wouldn't be that upset if Theo bolted after 5 years for some reason. Assuming the plan works like its being set up, the infastructure of the entire organization will have been upgraded and presumably be among baseball's best. Even the most gung ho Theo fans would admit that the moves he made to keep the Red Sox as a contender were iffy for the most part, and his biggest strength lies in talent development.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Honestly, I wouldn't be that upset if Theo bolted after 5 years for some reason. Assuming the plan works like its being set up, the infastructure of the entire organization will have been upgraded and presumably be among baseball's best. Even the most gung ho Theo fans would admit that the moves he made to keep the Red Sox as a contender were iffy for the most part, and his biggest strength lies in talent development.

 

Holding out for the possibility of a bolt would lend at least a little to the "he doesn't care about the Cubs' fortunes" argument.

[treebird]

Honestly, I wouldn't be that upset if Theo bolted after 5 years for some reason. Assuming the plan works like its being set up, the infastructure of the entire organization will have been upgraded and presumably be among baseball's best. Even the most gung ho Theo fans would admit that the moves he made to keep the Red Sox as a contender were iffy for the most part, and his biggest strength lies in talent development.

 

if you make the assumption that this plan works perfectly and we have the best organization in baseball in four years, we'll be okay with basically anything. that isn't particularly likely, though.

[UMFan83]

Honestly, I wouldn't be that upset if Theo bolted after 5 years for some reason. Assuming the plan works like its being set up, the infastructure of the entire organization will have been upgraded and presumably be among baseball's best. Even the most gung ho Theo fans would admit that the moves he made to keep the Red Sox as a contender were iffy for the most part, and his biggest strength lies in talent development.

 

if you make the assumption that this plan works perfectly and we have the best organization in baseball in four years, we'll be okay with basically anything. that isn't particularly likely, though.

 

that's a good point. I should revise that to say that if the team's headed in the right directon when he leaves, and the team is clearly better off than it was when he started here, I won't be that upset if he leaves. I feel like the true value of Theo is setting up the organization to get into that position, rather than putting the final touches on a potential contender....

 

 

....which is ironically what he did with the 2004 Red Sox

Edited December 5, 2012 by UMFan83

[Guest]

Tired of rumors...I want action!

[davell]

Tired of rumors...I want action!

Hell, I'd settle for a "good" rumor even.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Tired of rumors...I want action!

 

Rule 5 is tomorrow. We might even make two picks!

[Neuby]

Excited for tomorrows draft. There's a couple real wild card talents to be had.