BA, BP, etc. Cubs Top Prospects List

[craig]

Honestly... It's pretty clear that Vitters can't handle 3B competently... and it's not like he projects to be great enough with the bat to move elsewhere or to overcome being terrible in the field. Soooo, where's the real upside?

 

25 may be a bit harsh, but I'm definitely not at all excited about him as a prospect in any way.

 

Exactly.

[davell]

McLeod with some really good quotes tonight(on my cell) that someone should post. Said Baez is further along as a SS than Castro at the same age. Almora and Vogelbach are both guys that are team captain types. Vogelbach is more athletic than most see, but the plan is to keep him at 1B for as long as possible.

[Bruce Miles]

McLeod with some really good quotes tonight(on my cell) that someone should post. Said Baez is further along as a SS than Castro at the same age. Almora and Vogelbach are both guys that are team captain types. Vogelbach is more athletic than most see, but the plan is to keep him at 1B for as long as possible.

 

Seeing as how all those quotes came from my Twitter, you should follow me there, @BruceMiles2112. They're all there. :)

[Bruce Miles]

The Cubs and Cougars really put on a nice event, by the way.

[davell]

McLeod with some really good quotes tonight(on my cell) that someone should post. Said Baez is further along as a SS than Castro at the same age. Almora and Vogelbach are both guys that are team captain types. Vogelbach is more athletic than most see, but the plan is to keep him at 1B for as long as possible.

 

Seeing as how all those quotes came from my Twitter, you should follow me there, @BruceMiles2112. They're all there. :)

Hehe, I do Bruce. Can't link from my cell though. [expletive], should have mentioned they came from your feed though, my bad.......Did McLeod appear to think Vogelbach MAY eventually switch positions?

[Bruce Miles]

McLeod with some really good quotes tonight(on my cell) that someone should post. Said Baez is further along as a SS than Castro at the same age. Almora and Vogelbach are both guys that are team captain types. Vogelbach is more athletic than most see, but the plan is to keep him at 1B for as long as possible.

 

Seeing as how all those quotes came from my Twitter, you should follow me there, @BruceMiles2112. They're all there. :)

Hehe, I do Bruce. Can't link from my cell though. [expletive], should have mentioned they came from your feed though, my bad.......Did McLeod appear to think Vogelbach MAY eventually switch positions?

 

On Vogelbach, they seemed pretty adamant that he is not an outfielder.

[Guest]

McLeod with some really good quotes tonight(on my cell) that someone should post. Said Baez is further along as a SS than Castro at the same age. Almora and Vogelbach are both guys that are team captain types. Vogelbach is more athletic than most see, but the plan is to keep him at 1B for as long as possible.

 

Seeing as how all those quotes came from my Twitter, you should follow me there, @BruceMiles2112. They're all there. :)

Hehe, I do Bruce. Can't link from my cell though. [expletive], should have mentioned they came from your feed though, my bad.......Did McLeod appear to think Vogelbach MAY eventually switch positions?

 

On Vogelbach, they seemed pretty adamant that he is not an outfielder.

 

Glad to hear them say that. I felt like the LF talk filtering out after the convention was crazy talk.

[Guest]

@BruceMiles2112 Kane County mgr Mark Johnson on prospects playing in Chicago market: ”They don't even know what a market is.” #Cubs

 

@BruceMiles2112 #Cubs Jason McLeod wouldn't commit to players at Kane County but did let an ”Almora” slip

 

@BruceMiles2112 Visiting with former #Cubs farmhand David Macias at Kane County. He now is in player development

 

@BruceMiles2112 Fan asks about darkhorse player in #Cubs system. Austin Reed comes back as answer. @KCCougars

 

@BruceMiles2112 #Cubs Brandon Hyde says Dan Vogelbach is more athletic than meets The eye but says OF is not in near future plans

 

@BruceMiles2112 #Cubs Jason McLeod says Baez more advanced at SS than Castro was at that age

 

@BruceMiles2112 @KCCougars mgr says Vogelbach was ”best teammate you could ever have” at Boise

 

@BruceMiles2112 #Cubs McLeod: ”We are not in the process of rushing guys.”

 

@BruceMiles2112 #Cubs Hyde says Almora is a plus defender now

 

@BruceMiles2112 @KCCougars mgr Johnson says Almora and Vogelbach are team captains all the way to the big leagues. #Cubs

[Rob]

Honestly... It's pretty clear that Vitters can't handle 3B competently... and it's not like he projects to be great enough with the bat to move elsewhere or to overcome being terrible in the field. Soooo, where's the real upside?

 

25 may be a bit harsh, but I'm definitely not at all excited about him as a prospect in any way.

 

Exactly.

 

What kind of offense do you really think a decent 1B/LF/RF puts up in this offensive era?

 

Vitters might not have great potential outside of 3B, but it's not like it's 3B or bust for him as a valuable piece. If he can get the K's back down to his minor league rate, he's somewhere between a good bench player or a league average starter at any of the other corner spots, depending on his fielding.

[Guest]

Honestly... It's pretty clear that Vitters can't handle 3B competently... and it's not like he projects to be great enough with the bat to move elsewhere or to overcome being terrible in the field. Soooo, where's the real upside?

 

25 may be a bit harsh, but I'm definitely not at all excited about him as a prospect in any way.

 

Exactly.

 

What kind of offense do you really think a decent 1B/LF/RF puts up in this offensive era?

 

A good bit higher than what we can expect from Vitters right now.

[Rob]

Josh Vitters last year in the PCL: 6.6 BB%, 17.0 K%, .210 ISO.

 

The walk rate was a best for him, but he kept it up even during his struggles in the majors. It seems like a focus he had last year. His strikeout rate in the minors has actually fluctuated between about 18% and 11% in the minors (the 11% came in 2011 at AA.) The strikeout rate was over 30% during his cup of coffee. Just for the sake of argument let's call the walk rate real improvement and chalk the strikeout rate in MLB up to small sample size and nerves. Let's pretend he can get that back down close to his higher minor league figure. But given the nature of the PCL, you should probably write off some of that power.

 

Here's a few guys last season who were posting comparable ratios. There weren't any perfect comps -- at least not in people who played full seasons. But this is the best I could get.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=1b&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=0&type=8&season=2012&month=0&season1=2012&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=3433,1908,3086,1737,3473,9205

 

I don't think it's unreasonable to project Vitters might be able to put up something like Morneau did last year. Yeah, he'd be a below average starter at that, but it's not bad. And given his hit tool and supposed propensity for line drives, I don't think I'd be all that shocked to see him score a couple .330 BABIP seasons in his prime.

 

I don't want all this to sound like I'm in love with Vitters as a prospect. I'm definitely not. But I just don't understand the sentiment that he can be completely written off if he's not playing 3B. It seems like anywhere he can be a -5 fielder he has a shot to carve out a career as a second division starter.

[Guest]

So we're crossing our fingers that Vitters gets to a .330 wOBA, which is below average at 1B, RF, and especially LF(where he ends up in all likelihood). There's always the chance that he flips the switch with selectivity and breaks out, but at the moment there's little to believe that he's an every day OF or 1B.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

League average wOBA, 2012:

 

1b, .331

LF, .324

RF, .327

[craig]

Josh Vitters last year in the PCL: 6.6 BB%, 17.0 K%, .210 ISO.

 

The walk rate was a best for him, but he kept it up even during his struggles in the majors. It seems like a focus he had last year. His strikeout rate in the minors has actually fluctuated between about 18% and 11% in the minors (the 11% came in 2011 at AA.) The strikeout rate was over 30% during his cup of coffee. Just for the sake of argument let's call the walk rate real improvement and chalk the strikeout rate in MLB up to small sample size and nerves. Let's pretend he can get that back down close to his higher minor league figure. But given the nature of the PCL, you should probably write off some of that power.....

 

I don't want all this to sound like I'm in love with Vitters as a prospect. I'm definitely not. But I just don't understand the sentiment that he can be completely written off if he's not playing 3B. It seems like anywhere he can be a -5 fielder he has a shot to carve out a career as a second division starter.

 

Great points. He's never combined all his bests at once, and if he does he'll be really good. When his walks have been anti-awful, his K's haven't been great. When his K's have been great, his walks have been awful. But if he walked like last year (or better), and his K's were elite or close (like 2011), and his HR's were good (like last year) or better (as sometimes happens as guys mature from age 22 to 29), he could be a LOT better than a .275-20 guy.

 

Of course, often walk/K/HR all interconnect. You get the low-K by swinging early and often, so the walks go down. The walk went up when he took more pitches, which put him into more 2-strike K-situations. So perhaps K/walks will always correlate; he buys more walks at the price of more K's? Likewise more K's may be the price of more HR's?

 

But if all the good stuff came together all at the same time, and the HR output grew as well, his bat still would seem to have a chance to be good enough to justify a lot.

 

Of course, there are "ifs" for every prospect in the top 30. I kind of think that anybody in the top 30 has a chance to be pretty good, if the "ifs" work out favorably. Torreyes, Watkins, Amaya, Jensen, Scott, etc., any of them might perhaps become 2-WAR guys or better, right? If the possibilities come up favorably?

[Rob]

Thank you, Kyle.

 

Scott Hairston has mostly floated between a .330 and .340 wOBA without positive fielding or baserunning value.

 

That bodes well for my suggestion that an optimistic, but still reasonable projection can still see him fall somewhere in the range of good bench guy or league average-ish starter, even at a position other than 3B.

[Guest]

I guess I'm a little confused then. If the point is that in a slightly optimistic projection that Vitters is a platoon OF, I'm not sure who you're arguing with.

 

FWIW, Hairston killed the ball throughout the minors(.971 OPS) and has a .324 MLB wOBA while getting a lift from a platoon's playing time.

[toonsterwu]

The Cubs and Cougars really put on a nice event, by the way.

 

Thanks for the tweets. The best one was arguably how the kids don't know what a market is. If you make it back Bruce, was wondering what your thoughts/what you've heard on Mark Johnson as a manager? I assume that his approach has to gel somewhat with the what Epstein, Hoyer, and McLeod want, as he was kept around?

[Guest]

Might they shop Castro in another year?

[craig]

Reed has a good arm. Would be fun if he could emerge as good.

[Rob]

I guess I'm a little confused then. If the point is that in a slightly optimistic projection that Vitters is a platoon OF, I'm not sure who you're arguing with.

 

FWIW, Hairston killed the ball throughout the minors(.971 OPS) and has a .324 MLB wOBA while getting a lift from a platoon's playing time.

 

That's a bit of a mischaracterization, but whatever. The simple point of the argument was that Vitters still holds some value even if not at 3B... whether that's a platoon guy, a second-division starter, or just plain trade bait to whomever might think better of his glove.

 

Hairston was 24 before he got a taste of AAA. I don't know enough about PCL park factors from 2004-2006 to make a fair comparison between the two.

 

There was a good deal of applause on this board for the Hairston signing. I was just a bit surprised to see a guy who could easily be on the same career path being completely disregarded by some.

[Guest]

Might they shop Castro in another year?

 

Not with his contract.

 

I doubt Baez will be better than Castro defensively when he arrives at the big leagues, because of how much bigger he'll be. Baez will look great at 3B.

[craig]

I also suspect they'll give Reed a shot at starting/piggyback.

 

They've got some different ideas than Fleita, I think, and very much want some power rotation arms. If they thought his control and potential for a 3-pitch arsenal was too limited to justify a shot at rotation, I doubt they'd mention him as a dark-horse breakout candidate.

[NewUserName]

Might they shop Castro in another year?

 

Not with his contract.

 

I doubt Baez will be better than Castro defensively when he arrives at the big leagues, because of how much bigger he'll be. Baez will look great at 3B.

 

I had to listen to The White Sox weekly show on The Score yesterday. One of the points the announcer guy brought up was there was a lack of good 3b in MLB and their systems, he sited a Sox front office guy. So first of all I do not know if this is actually true. If however it is, would it not make sense to keep both Castro and Baez and move one to 3rd, while developing others to play 3rd. Try to take advantage of the market deficiency shall we say.

[Outshined_One]

Might they shop Castro in another year?

 

Not with his contract.

 

I doubt Baez will be better than Castro defensively when he arrives at the big leagues, because of how much bigger he'll be. Baez will look great at 3B.

 

Castro's listed at 6'0 190 lbs and Baez is listed at 6'1 205 lbs. Are you expecting Baez to grow or add weight? Otherwise, I don't think an inch and 15 pounds is that much of a difference.

[rawaction]

Might they shop Castro in another year?

 

Not with his contract.

 

I doubt Baez will be better than Castro defensively when he arrives at the big leagues, because of how much bigger he'll be. Baez will look great at 3B.

 

Castro's listed at 6'0 190 lbs and Baez is listed at 6'1 205 lbs. Are you expecting Baez to grow or add weight? Otherwise, I don't think an inch and 15 pounds is that much of a difference.

 

I could see Baez easily being 215-220 ish and growing another inch. He looks "long" for 6'1" as it is.