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The WTF are the Dodgers Doing Thread

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bukie All-Star

bukie

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted

They overpaid for a league average reliever. He is the definition of league average.

 

Given the volatility of relief pitchers in the first place, committing to three years for a league average pitcher with below average walk and K rates is not a good decision.

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Hairyducked Idiot All-Star

Hairyducked Idiot

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
Kyle, bullpens are a crapshoot. You know that. In all honesty, we can throw a Marmol, Russell, Camp, Bowden, Dolis, and 2 one year, cheap guys out there and wind up with a decent pen. All League's deal does is up the price and years for the Brandon Lyons, Jon Rauchs, and Matt Capps of the world. If you can get Madson on a one year, absolutely go for it. If Marmol gets dealt? Give out a contract to 1 of those 3 I just listed. But spending on your Howry, Eyre types should be reserved for when we have a chance AND a need. I'm hoping we develop those guys before it's an actual need.

 

I think the "bullpens are a crapshoot" meme has become severely overrated.

 

Back in the day when we were all looking at ERA+ or whatever, sure, there was a ton of variance in what we saw.

 

But with what we know about pitching today, it shouldn't be that hard to figure out which guys are consistently good and which ones aren't.

 

Howry's xFIP the two years before we picked him up and the three years we had him: 3.84, 3.97, 3.84, 4.00, 4.17.

Guest

Guest

Guests
Posted
Posted
He's a good relief pitcher. They overpaid for a good relief pitcher.

 

xFIP the last three seasons: 3.52, 3.09, 3.99.

 

Yes, the HR-rate isn't likely to be 0.13 every year, but it's generally going to be very low, because he's an extreme ground ball pitcher.

 

Yes, it's fun to laugh at overpays, and this is clearly an overpay. But I'd rather overpay than leave money on the table.

 

I don't think the track record of throw-hard, low K, high BB relievers leaving their primes is a particularly good one. Scott Linebrink immediately jumps to mind, but even he had much better K and BB numbers.

Hairyducked Idiot All-Star

Hairyducked Idiot

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
He's a good relief pitcher. They overpaid for a good relief pitcher.

 

xFIP the last three seasons: 3.52, 3.09, 3.99.

 

Yes, the HR-rate isn't likely to be 0.13 every year, but it's generally going to be very low, because he's an extreme ground ball pitcher.

 

Yes, it's fun to laugh at overpays, and this is clearly an overpay. But I'd rather overpay than leave money on the table.

 

I don't think the track record of throw-hard, low K, high BB relievers leaving their primes is a particularly good one. Scott Linebrink immediately jumps to mind, but even he had much better K and BB numbers.

 

Linebrink was a fly-ball pitcher. He went from being a slightly better than average reliever through about age 29 to a slightly below average relief after.

 

How much of an overpay is it? WAR undervalues relievers, but even WAR has him worth about $10 million the past two years. They're overpaying by $2 million a year for three years.

 

Worth maybe a snicker, but there are far bigger mistakes being made most weeks this offseason. It wasn't even the worst overpay of the day, seeing as how someone picked up Ervin Santana's option.

jumbo Draft Eligible

jumbo

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
They overpaid for a league average reliever. He is the definition of league average.

 

xFIP- the last five seasons:

 

97, 81, 100, 74, 83.

 

He's better than league average.

 

Real question - is xFIP normalized separately for SP and RP?

dew1679666265 Iowa Cubs

dew1679666265

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
There's a point to be made with the obnoxious "efficiency awards" rhetoric, but this is not the time. This is a laugh out loud horrible decision for the Dodgers, and only the most lassez-faire "it's not my money" supporter could characterize it as anything but a dumb decision.

 

Very good point. I think a lot of people on here - and perhaps even Cubs management - have gotten pretty gunshy on spending money, but this is not the type of deal we need.

Warpticon ACL Cubs

Warpticon

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
Have they signed any bad baseball players?

 

They're overpaying the market for good but not great players, sure.

 

He's an average late inning guy who's never been worth more than 1.3 WAR and he'll be 30 at the beginning of next season. They're paying over $7 MM per year to a guy who shouldn't be getting more than about $3-4 MM max. For the money he's being paid, yes, he's a bad player. He has a combined 3.5 WAR over the last 4 years. $5 mm per year to fill a gaping hole, okay, but to sign him to that deal when he hasn't even hit the open market is asinine.

 

So in other words, he's not a bad player but they overpaid the market for him.

 

His best season is 4/5 of an Ian Stewart and he makes 8 Ian Stewarts of money.

Hairyducked Idiot All-Star

Hairyducked Idiot

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
They overpaid for a league average reliever. He is the definition of league average.

 

xFIP- the last five seasons:

 

97, 81, 100, 74, 83.

 

He's better than league average.

 

Real question - is xFIP normalized separately for SP and RP?

 

My guess is no, so you could argue that he's been slightly below average in two of those five years.

Cubswin11 All-Star

Cubswin11

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
I don't get it: is Kyle right, or should the Cubs DFA him if he were signed to the minimum for them?

Resign him to a 3 year $21.5mm deal. It's about average

Careless Knoxville Smokies

Careless

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
I don't get it: is Kyle right, or should the Cubs DFA him if he were signed to the minimum for them?

Resign him to a 3 year $21.5mm deal. It's about average

So you're going with him being wrong and you wanting to pay more.

 

I do not think you mean that.

 

Kyle has effectivelY driven you insane.

 

That's pretty disturbing.

mul21 Myrtle Beach Pelicans

mul21

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
I don't get it: is Kyle right, or should the Cubs DFA him if he were signed to the minimum for them?

Resign him to a 3 year $21.5mm deal. It's about average

So you're going with him being wrong and you wanting to pay more.

 

I do not think you mean that.

 

Kyle has effectivelY driven you insane.

 

That's pretty disturbing.

 

Try reading that again, but pretend it's in green.

javy knows my name Myrtle Beach Pelicans

javy knows my name

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
I don't get it: is Kyle right, or should the Cubs DFA him if he were signed to the minimum for them?

Resign him to a 3 year $21.5mm deal. It's about average

So you're going with him being wrong and you wanting to pay more.

 

I do not think you mean that.

 

Kyle has effectivelY driven you insane.

 

That's pretty disturbing.

 

Try reading that again, but pretend it's in green.

 

That attempt at reading comprehension was careless.

  • 2 months later...
Thed Hoyerstein Draft Eligible

Thed Hoyerstein

Verified Member
Posted
Posted

Suppose this may be time to re-hash the subject.

 

Bill Shaikin ‏@BillShaikin

Source: #Dodgers tentative deal with Time Warner Cable worth between $7 billion and $8 billion to team

 

 

 

Good lord, that's a crap load of money to spend on middle relievers and Carl Crawford.

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