2013 Mock Offseason Thread

[davell]

I'm sure there will be quite a few differing opinions on what we're going to do this offseason, as there are plenty of people wanting splashes and a quick return to respectability and others that want or at least see a more patient approach.

 

Personally, I think the renovation goes hand in hand with this rebuild and we won't see a payroll even reaching 100 mill until probably 2015. That does NOT mean I expect us to suck as badly as this year until then though. Yes, I fully expect 2013 to be very bad, but that's the end of our 100 loss possible seasons. I figure this offseason will be more in tune with the last one, just maybe a few more FA signings and possibly a tad better quality to where at least there's a tiny bit of hope that if things clicked, the team COULD conceivably be in contention at the deadline. Here's my first full mock offseason, as I've done plenty of these things half-assed previously.

 

Catching- I fully expect us to go into next year with both Castillo and Clevenger on our major league roster, Castillo starting obviously. Payroll outlay here-1 million

 

Corner Infield- Rizzo is a lock, of course and I do think Valbuena is here as a backup, who's hitting arb actually, so I'll guess he gets 800K. I still don't see LaHair getting moved, especially to Japan, my guess is we'll constantly be trying to deal him, but for now he's still here as a backup 1B/LF/RF. As for our starting 3B, I'll go with Youkilis. FO has ties with him and I think he'll have to take a one year deal, my guess is he gets 8 mill from us. I think Vitters is dealt in a package for pitching. Payroll outlay here is 9.5 mill

 

Middle Infield- Castro is a lock and will be making 5 mill next season. I actually see Barney getting dealt and us going a different direction at 2B, probably a bit more offensive minded and using Cardenas as our backup MI, possibly with Valbuena taking SS if Castro needs a rest or is injured at some point. I figure we'll get some journeyman to stash at AAA to use in an emergency situation as well. The 2B I'll go with here is Kelly Johnson, giving him a 2 year, 12 mill contract. Total payroll out;ay is 11.5 mill for the MI.

 

Outfield- I do think Soriano is dealt this offseason and I'll say it's to the Yankees. They need cheap production, he's played there already and it'd give them money to spend elsewhere, since they appear hell-bent on avoiding the luxury tax. I'll guess we send 30 of the 36 mill remaining. Return? I'll say we get Brett Marshall and Bichette Jr as the return for him. I also think we will trade FOR Ryan Sweeney, giving up Jae Hoon Ha, in the process for Sweeney's final arb year, where he'll make 2 mill or so. I say this because I think we'll have Brett as our opening day CFer and if he falters, we at least have some sort of competent major leaguer to fall back on here. DeJesus in right and it leaves us needing a starting LFer. I'll go with Scott Hairston here, not a lot of options and I'll say we give him a 2 year, 10 mill deal. Total payroll outlay, counting the 15 mill we're paying Soriano is 26.75 mill.

 

Total payroll for our lineup becomes 48.75 mill and the lineup would look like this, I suppose.

RF DeJesus

SS Castro

1B Rizzo

3B Youkilis

LF Hairston

2B Johnson

C Castillo

CF B Jackson

Bench of Clevenger, LaHair, Valbuena, Cardenas, and Sweeney.

 

Starting Pitching- Garza and Shark appear to be here for the start of the year(Garza) and longterm(Shark) Both are in arb, I'll say Garza gets a bump up to 11.5 mill and Shark makes 4 mill himself. Travis Wood is in the mix and will either be a long guy or a 5th starter. The major trade I see us making is Barney, Vitters, and Marco Hernandez to Oakland for Sonny Gray and Tom Milone. Milone and Gray both have some warts, Milone has pitched well though in the large park at least and certainly has pitchibility. Gray's upside has diminished somewhat, but still has a chance at being a midrotation guy or possible closer. I figure we'll add 2 SP's via FA this offseason and one of them will be Shaun Marcum, getting a 1 year 8 mill deal, plus incentives. The other I'll say is Scott Feldman, getting 2 years and 14 mill from us. Total outlay for starting pitching is 31 mill and gives us a rotation of....

Shark

Garza

Marcum

Feldman

Wood/Milone

 

Bullpen- Marmol enters the year as our closer, making 9.8 mill. Wood or Millone is our long guy, making league minimum. I think Corpas gets kept and will make 1.2 mill in his last year of arb. Russell hits arb for the first time and I see him making a mill. Cabrera or Dolis and Beliveau or Rusin or Raley make the team and we add a Chad Durbin for 2 mill on a year deal, giving us a pen of....

Marmol

Durbin

Russell

Corpas

Cabrera/Dolis

Beliveau/Rusin/Raley

Wood/Millone

 

Total bullpen outlay is 15.5 mill.

 

Total team payroll is 99.75 mill, after counting the Soler and Concepcion contracts.

 

Obviously, it's not a sexy team, but it may not be an awful one and it doesn't do anything to hurt our flexibility moving forward. Exciting? [expletive] no. But it's fairly close to what I see happening this offseason. The bullpen is better than it was heading into this past season and I think the lineup is too. The SP probably is about the same, replacing Dempster with Marcum and Maholm with Feldman.

 

At any rate, flame away at my utterly average offseason and give some thoughts as to what you may think the offseason looks like......

[jersey cubs fan]

I'm sure there will be quite a few differing opinions on what we're going to do this offseason

 

I would bet there are not, as pretty much everybody realizes they aren't serious about the dual fronts thing and they won't be doing anything of note to the major league team.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Trade Garza for peanuts. Trade Soriano for minor salary relief. Trade DeJesus and Samardzija for decent prospects.

 

Fill every available roster spot with a minimum-salary waiver wire pickup who may or may not have a good season somewhere in their past.

 

Spend another 12 months fapping over draft position, low-minors talent and payroll flexibility.

[imb]

hey offseason, what are you, like a gay or something

[Little Slide Rooter]

Try to trade DeJesus for a pitcher of some sort.

 

Acquire a bunch of reclamations.

 

Re-up Stewart

 

Trade Soriano and Marmol for the best return and eat as much salary as it takes.

 

Sign one of Sanchez/Jackson/Marcum/Floyd/McCarthy if he's still alive.

 

See what it will take for the A's to trade Peacock or Milone

 

If not, see what the Rays want for Wade Davis or Jeff Niemann. Maybe even if we can get one of the A's guys.

 

See how much 1 year of Melky Cabrera with vesting options costs

 

If too much, look into Delmon Young or BJ Upton.

[Cubs Fan Dan]

Im expecting a busy off season with a lot of Upside moves.

 

Cubs trade Soriano to Rays eating majority of salary and acquiring Wade Davis and Ryan Roberts

Cubs trade Dejesus, Barney, Jackson, vitters, McNutt to DBaks for Justin Upton

Cubs sign BJ Upton 3 yrs 30 mil

Cubs sign Stephen Drew 1 yr 8 mil

Cubs sign Edwin Jackson 3years 40 mil

Stewart resigns 1 year deal

 

CF BJ Upton

SS Starlin Castro

1B Anthony Rizzo

RF Justin Upton

2B Stephen Drew/ Roberts

C Castillo

3B Stewart / Roberts

LF Sappelt / LaHair / FA?

 

Lahair

Roberts

Clevenger

Sappelt

Cardenas / OF free agent

 

Shark

Garza

Jackson

Wood

Davis

 

Marmol

Russell

Camp

Cabrera

Beliveau

Dolis / some other guy

[rawaction]

I think the key to the off-season will be trying to create a more offensively diverse team. Castro, Barney, Castillo, and even Vitters are nice young players who have/should outperform their cheap contracts, but add Soriano to that and you have 5/8 of your potential lineup that will struggle to get on base at even a 33% level next year. I don't expect any big splashes on offense, but I do expect a few of these guys to be gone (i.e. traded) in order to, if not increase the talent necessarily, just to create a different type of team.

 

I think the odd men out will be Barney and Soriano. Vitters may be kept, but won't start in the majors if he is. I think the Cubs get a couple minor leaguers for Soriano. I wouldn't expect too much, maybe a 5th starter/long relief type and a toolsy OF that would slot in the 20s-30s in the Cubs minor league system. I think Barney is traded/packaged with other parts to get a starting pitcher.

 

I'd the say the following players are "safe" to be on the ML team to start next year (assuming health)

 

LF-

CF- Brett Jackson

RF- David DeJesus

3B-

SS- Starlin Castro

2B-

1B- Anthony Rizzo

C- Welington Castillo

 

SP- Garza, Samardzija, Wood,

 

Don't know that any of the relievers are safe, though I'll guess Marmol, Russell, Cabrera, and Beliveau have the best shots to hang around, the the first 2 could be traded.

 

I'll guess Youkilis at 3B also, because of the ties to the F.O. Also, he would adequately replace Soriano's RH power in the middle of the order, and helps with my theory of making probably a lateral change for the sake of the team's OBP. I think 2B is handled by committee, with Valbuena, Cardenas, and maybe even Logan Watkins getting a shot to start the season there. A RH counterpart could possibly be brought in here, maybe even Jeff Baker again or a guy like Jeff Keppinger. No long term option is brought in because position is being kept warm for Ronald Torreyes at some point (maybe even mid 2013 if he gets some luck at AA next year). As for LF, frankly, I have no idea what they're going to do if they trade Soriano. Hairston is interesting, but doesn't get on base enough. I guess the Ryan Sweeney thing could be a real possibility. Nick Swisher would be pretty interesting, and would provide enough of a splash that the Cubs could possibly compete if they got lucky. Some interesting names on the trade market for OF could be Shin-Soo Choo, Hunter Pence, or Justin Upton, but I don't know if the Cubs have the ammo they are willing to give for those guys. But for now, I'll go with Sweeney/Sappelt platoon situation.

 

Lineup:

 

RF- DeJesus

2B- Valbuena

1B- Rizzo

3B- Youkilis

SS- Castro

LF- Sweeney

CF- Jackson

C- Castillo

 

Bench- Sappelt, Baker, Clevenger, Cardenas, LaHair (I guess?)

 

As for the rotation, I think this is where the bolder moves will be made. I'm bad at trade proposals, but I'll say: Darwin Barney, Matt Szczur, Arismendy Alcanta, and Starling Peralta for Brett Anderson and a minor leaguer. Then I'll go with a minor trade of Vitters for Jurrjens to fill out the rotation with a reclamation project.

 

SP- Garza, Anderson, Samardzija, Jurrjens, Wood

 

I'll keep those 4 above for the pen. Also, I'll add Dolis to this group. Camp is a FA, so I'll let him walk at 37 years old and I think they'll sign another veteran reclamation guy. I'll say a Jason Frasor, Ramon Ramirez, or Clay Hensley type of mid-30s. Then I'll say a long reliever type of the last spot, whoever loses to Travis Wood for the 5th starter spot.

 

CL- Marmol

RP- Russell, Beliveau, Cabrera, Dolis, Hensley, Rusin

 

Potentially a pretty good rotation, with a handful of quality arms in the pen. The offense isn't very good, but has the potential to really get on base if guys like Jackson, Youkilis, Valbuena, and Sweeney can hit even in the .250-.260s.

 

The 2014 team could look really good if Garza and Marmol can regain some of their value, a few young guys develop, and the young prospects start to inch further up the minor league levels.

[davell]

I brought Anderson up a few weeks back, but veered away from him on this one, because he's come back so strong and they're contending still. Could be extremely hard to trade for him.

[Little Slide Rooter]

Just to add, here's a projection of current players likely to be on the 40 man:

 

Pitchers

1. Garza

2. Shark

3. Wood

4. Struck

5. Raley or Rusin

6. Cabrer

7. Russell

8. Beliveau

9. Dolis

10. Concepcion (I think it's in his contract)

 

Infielders

11. Castro

12. Rizzo

13. Barney

14. Stewart

15. Vitters

16. Watkins

17. Cardenas or Valbuena

 

Outfielders

18. Jackson

19. Campana

20. Sappelt

21. Soler

22. Szczur

 

Catchers

23. Castillo

24. Clevenger

 

If not traded

25. Marmol

26. Soriano

27. DeJesus

 

Other possibilities

28. Bowden

29. Hatley

30. Volstad

31. Other of Raley/Rusin

32. Other of Cardenas/Valbuena

33. LaHair

34. Whitenack

35. Peralta

36. Mateo

[davell]

Villanueva has to be added.

[SouthSideRyan]

If not, see what the Rays want for Wade Davis or Jeff Niemann.

 

YESSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSS

[rawaction]

I brought Anderson up a few weeks back, but veered away from him on this one, because he's come back so strong and they're contending still. Could be extremely hard to trade for him.

 

Yeah, I know. And it would probably take more than I gave up. But he's set to get expensive, not next year, but in 2014 and 2015 he'll make a ton. Plus, even if they do lose Anderson, McCarthy and Colon, they'd still have a loaded rotation. It may be easier to get one of their younger pitchers, but the As have to be loving the results of trading their last 2 top young pitchers. Obviously, this is not the same type of package they got for Gio or Cahill, but Anderson does have the injury history/risk and has only thrown 215 innings over the last 3 seasons....whereas Cahill and Gonzalez both had back to back seasons of at least 198 innings each.

[davell]

Oh, I thought the package you proposed was solid honestly, but it'd come down to whether they look at him as a Rich Harden type or not, injury-wise. I was always surprised we got him for what we did and no one offered more. If teams are scared off for some reason and Oakland isn't sold on him staying healthy, that type of package could work.

 

I think the gist here though, is find a team with plenty of young pitching and try to trade some of our position players for one. Oakland and Atlanta are the best bets for sure.

 

Oakland needs a 3B and a SS, possibly a DH type as well. Atlanta needs a 3B or 2B(depending on what they do with Uggla), a CF, and possibly a LF as well(depending on Prado).

 

Pitching-wise Oakland has Milone, Anderson, Straily, Parker, Griffin, Blackley, Ross, and Gray.

 

The Braves have Beachy, Hudson, Hanson, Maholm, Medlen, Minor, Delgado, Teheran, and Gilmartin.

 

There's gotta be a trade somewhere that fits for those two teams somewhere with us.

[illiniguy]

Oh, I thought the package you proposed was solid honestly, but it'd come down to whether they look at him as a Rich Harden type or not, injury-wise. I was always surprised we got him for what we did and no one offered more. If teams are scared off for some reason and Oakland isn't sold on him staying healthy, that type of package could work.

 

I think the gist here though, is find a team with plenty of young pitching and try to trade some of our position players for one. Oakland and Atlanta are the best bets for sure.

 

Oakland needs a 3B and a SS, possibly a DH type as well. Atlanta needs a 3B or 2B(depending on what they do with Uggla), a CF, and possibly a LF as well(depending on Prado).

 

Pitching-wise Oakland has Milone, Anderson, Straily, Parker, Griffin, Blackley, Ross, and Gray.

 

The Braves have Beachy, Hudson, Hanson, Maholm, Medlen, Minor, Delgado, Teheran, and Gilmartin.

 

There's gotta be a trade somewhere that fits for those two teams somewhere with us.

Do other GMs still think that Barney can play shortstop? If so that's a start, obviously you are going to have to add something very good in to pry a young pitcher away though.

[davell]

Some possible nontender candidates and guys falling out of favor, even if they won't be let go......

 

Luke Hochevar, Jair Jurrjens, Mike Pelfrey, John Lannan, Dustin Moseley

 

 

 

Brian Matusz, Jake Arrieta, Daniel Bard, Jeff Niemann, Chris Narveson, Charlie Morton

 

First group, I expect to get nontendered, second group is guys I could see possibly being able to be dealt for at a bargain, assuming they're kept around.(and no, I'm not advocating dealing for any of them, just expect them on the market possibly)

Edited September 8, 2012 by davell

[davell]

Oh, I thought the package you proposed was solid honestly, but it'd come down to whether they look at him as a Rich Harden type or not, injury-wise. I was always surprised we got him for what we did and no one offered more. If teams are scared off for some reason and Oakland isn't sold on him staying healthy, that type of package could work.

 

I think the gist here though, is find a team with plenty of young pitching and try to trade some of our position players for one. Oakland and Atlanta are the best bets for sure.

 

Oakland needs a 3B and a SS, possibly a DH type as well. Atlanta needs a 3B or 2B(depending on what they do with Uggla), a CF, and possibly a LF as well(depending on Prado).

 

Pitching-wise Oakland has Milone, Anderson, Straily, Parker, Griffin, Blackley, Ross, and Gray.

 

The Braves have Beachy, Hudson, Hanson, Maholm, Medlen, Minor, Delgado, Teheran, and Gilmartin.

 

There's gotta be a trade somewhere that fits for those two teams somewhere with us.

Do other GMs still think that Barney can play shortstop? If so that's a start, obviously you are going to have to add something very good in to pry a young pitcher away though.

 

I believe so. Not the caliber of SS as he is at 2B obviously, but I'd be shocked if most don't consider him a league average SS defensively and if not for his range, he'd be better than that, is my guess.

[illiniguy]

Some possible nontender candidates and guys falling out of favor, even if they won't be let go......

 

Luke Hochevar, Jair Jurrjens, Mike Pelfrey, John Lannan, Dustin Moseley

 

 

 

Brian Matusz, Jake Arrieta, Daniel Bard, Jeff Niemann, Chris Narveson, Charlie Morton

 

First group, I expect to get nontendered, second group is guys I could see possibly being able to be dealt for at a bargain, assuming they're kept around.(and no, I'm not advocating dealing for any of them, just expect them on the market possibly)

WIth the lack of pitching the Royals have, I doubt they non tender Luke Hochevar.

[davell]

3rd year of arb, getting expensive, no real production.....You may be right though, their rotation is awful. I do expect them to be in on basically every FA pitcher, other than Greinke though and figure they'll land two. They've got Odorizzi ready and Duffy coming back. Chen is there. At any rate, Hochevar seems like a guy that may not be there one way or another.

[illiniguy]

3rd year of arb, getting expensive, no real production.....You may be right though, their rotation is awful. I do expect them to be in on basically every FA pitcher, other than Greinke though and figure they'll land two. They've got Odorizzi ready and Duffy coming back. Chen is there. At any rate, Hochevar seems like a guy that may not be there one way or another.

I hope you are right, but Dayton Moore is terrible at his job. I doubt Duffy is ready for the first part of the year either, at least at the big league level.

[davell]

I could see us trading some borderline guys for him. You're probably right though in that they won't nontender him, I didn't realize their staff was currently as big a mess as it is. But he seems like a guy we could target. 2 arb years left, underperforming, probably has some upside left.

[Little Slide Rooter]

Oh, I thought the package you proposed was solid honestly, but it'd come down to whether they look at him as a Rich Harden type or not, injury-wise. I was always surprised we got him for what we did and no one offered more. If teams are scared off for some reason and Oakland isn't sold on him staying healthy, that type of package could work.

 

I think the gist here though, is find a team with plenty of young pitching and try to trade some of our position players for one. Oakland and Atlanta are the best bets for sure.

 

Oakland needs a 3B and a SS, possibly a DH type as well. Atlanta needs a 3B or 2B(depending on what they do with Uggla), a CF, and possibly a LF as well(depending on Prado).

 

Pitching-wise Oakland has Milone, Anderson, Straily, Parker, Griffin, Blackley, Ross, and Gray.

 

The Braves have Beachy, Hudson, Hanson, Maholm, Medlen, Minor, Delgado, Teheran, and Gilmartin.

 

There's gotta be a trade somewhere that fits for those two teams somewhere with us.

Do other GMs still think that Barney can play shortstop? If so that's a start, obviously you are going to have to add something very good in to pry a young pitcher away though.

 

My thinking is that if we were to pry one of those pitchers, Barney could be piece #2, and the key would be someone along the lines of Jackson, Szczur, or Vitters. With the wide range of pitchers listed, there are some we could with that alone, and others we'd have to throw in something else. Others yet, such ad Gray, Parker, and Hanson we can pretty forget unless Theo's already ready to start cutting into what he's building on the farm.

 

Peacock could be a guy to try to buy low on. I also think that Oakland could have interest in Soriano if we pick up the tab.

[sneakypower]

i think the infield is pretty much set in stone to remain what it is now

 

DeJesus and Jackson seem pretty safe, too, but i think we'll try to add an Upton

 

pitching is going to be completely rebuilt; i can see Baker, Villanueva, Liriano, A. Sanchez, Floyd as targets

[A New Era]

Trade Garza for peanuts. Trade Soriano for minor salary relief. Trade DeJesus and Samardzija for decent prospects.

 

You really don't know this front office, at all. And your sarcasm is not in the least bit funny, cute, or worthwhile.

[Cubswin11]

I'm all for shopping Barney around and try to play up his ability to play SS. I'd be a big fan of bringing in Drew to play 2B also.

 

Trying to figure out a trade for J. Upton would be a high priority for me as well

[rawaction]

I'm all for shopping Barney around and try to play up his ability to play SS. I'd be a big fan of bringing in Drew to play 2B also.

 

Trying to figure out a trade for J. Upton would be a high priority for me as well

 

I don't understand bringing in Drew. I think the Cubs have enough bodies to man 2B until a long-term solution comes around. Hopefully, they get an upgrade at 3B (more important position), then 2B could be manned by Valbuena, Cardenas, possibly Watkins and maybe even Torreyes at some point. I think any combination of those 4 could be just as productive as Drew next year....especially since Drew has been injured and bad for 2 years now.