Random Baseball Musings

[ConstableRabbit]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=__UJ9VZB508&feature=youtu.be

[jersey cubs fan]

Hell yeah Keith.

[OleMissCub]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=__UJ9VZB508&feature=youtu.be

 

Was just coming here to post this. Keith is so awesome with baseball.

[Sammys Boombox]

Not an Olbermann guy, but I thoroughly enjoyed that.

[CubInOK]

Yeah jeets.

[jersey cubs fan]

According to ESPN, the Pirates clinched a spot in the playoffs but still only have a 99.9% chance of making the playoffs.

[George Hayduke]

According to ESPN, the Pirates clinched a spot in the playoffs but still only have a 99.9% chance of making the playoffs.

They're accounting for the possibility of the team airplane crashing.

[Guest]

too soon man

[OleMissCub]

According to ESPN, the Pirates clinched a spot in the playoffs but still only have a 99.9% chance of making the playoffs.

They're accounting for the possibility of the team airplane crashing.

 

Mere moments after Ryan Braun hitches a ride on the plane.

[bukie]

Since the Pirates were swept Sept 1-3 in St. Louis to fall to 71-68, 1.5 games behind Atlanta and Milwaukee for the second wildcard, they've gone 15-3. In that time, the Braves have gone 3-14 to fall 10 games out.

[imb]

According to ESPN, the Pirates clinched a spot in the playoffs but still only have a 99.9% chance of making the playoffs.

They're accounting for the possibility of the team airplane crashing.

 

http://i.imgur.com/UDyOtpU.png

[jersey cubs fan]

You'd think mlb security would have a stricter vetting process for team pilots

[Sammys Boombox]

Multiple times the Royals have been tied with the A's and within 1/2 to 2 games of the Tigers and the A's have had higher playoff odds despite the Angels already clinching the West.

[jersey cubs fan]

Multiple times the Royals have been tied with the A's and within 1/2 to 2 games of the Tigers and the A's have had higher playoff odds despite the Angels already clinching the West.

I think part of the playoff odds things are based on how well the team has played (not just record) as well as remaining schedule. So that makes sense to me.

[Derwood]

Since the Pirates were swept Sept 1-3 in St. Louis to fall to 71-68, 1.5 games behind Atlanta and Milwaukee for the second wildcard, they've gone 15-3. In that time, the Braves have gone 3-14 to fall 10 games out.

 

They also started off 12-20 on the season

[bukie]

Texas has won 9 of their last 10 games to pass Arizona and lose the 1st pick in the draft.

[SouthSideRyan]

Texas has won 9 of their last 10 games to pass Arizona and lose the 1st pick in the draft.

 

1st season since '07 without a 100 loss team. First time since 2010 for Houston alone.

[Bull]

Multiple times the Royals have been tied with the A's and within 1/2 to 2 games of the Tigers and the A's have had higher playoff odds despite the Angels already clinching the West.

I think part of the playoff odds things are based on how well the team has played (not just record) as well as remaining schedule. So that makes sense to me.

Yup. Oak lands run differential is ridiculous.

[UMFan83]

So Phil Hughes had an incentive in his contract where he would get $500k for pitching 210 IP. He pitched 8 innings tonight with only 96 pitches thrown. Predictably the Twins did not have him come back out for the 9th inning, meaning he will likely finish the season with 209.2 IP

 

Edit: ok I just read that there was an hour rain delay between the 8th and 9th innings. That changes the story from "twins screwed him" to "terrible luck"

[Guest]

So Phil Hughes had an incentive in his contract where he would get $500k for pitching 210 IP. He pitched 8 innings tonight with only 96 pitches thrown. Predictably the Twins did not have him come back out for the 9th inning, meaning he will likely finish the season with 209.2 IP

 

Edit: ok I just read that there was an hour rain delay between the 8th and 9th innings. That changes the story from "twins screwed him" to "terrible luck"

 

Related note, Phil Hughes finished with the best single season K/BB rate by any player with at least 75 innings pitched.

[BCVM22]

Good news, Giants: you don't have to worry about the Cubs' grounds crew conspiring to intentionally screw you over being a one-game difference in the division.

[Sammys Boombox]

Multiple times the Royals have been tied with the A's and within 1/2 to 2 games of the Tigers and the A's have had higher playoff odds despite the Angels already clinching the West.

I think part of the playoff odds things are based on how well the team has played (not just record) as well as remaining schedule. So that makes sense to me.

Yup. Oak lands run differential is ridiculous.

 

True, but it seems a good formula would de-emphasize run differential the closer you got to the end of the season. It doesn't really matter. There is just no way that it is accurate to say the A's had like a 96% chance while tied with the Royals and say the a Royals were at like 75% with 1.5 weeks to go and the Royals right on the Tigers heels. Going off of memory, but I'm pretty sure that's pretty accurate to what MLB.com showed. Of course, I've heard that projections were skewed pretty bad by the projections that tried to include the Royals suspended game, so maybe it was just that.

[Guest]

Multiple times the Royals have been tied with the A's and within 1/2 to 2 games of the Tigers and the A's have had higher playoff odds despite the Angels already clinching the West.

I think part of the playoff odds things are based on how well the team has played (not just record) as well as remaining schedule. So that makes sense to me.

Yup. Oak lands run differential is ridiculous.

 

True, but it seems a good formula would de-emphasize run differential the closer you got to the end of the season. It doesn't really matter. There is just no way that it is accurate to say the A's had like a 96% chance while tied with the Royals and say the a Royals were at like 75% with 1.5 weeks to go and the Royals right on the Tigers heels. Going off of memory, but I'm pretty sure that's pretty accurate to what MLB.com showed. Of course, I've heard that projections were skewed pretty bad by the projections that tried to include the Royals suspended game, so maybe it was just that.

 

If you're talking about the ESPN playoff odds, they are terrible because they are based too much on pythag/RD. It's why they had the Cubs way too high early in the season when they were way behind but had a decent differential.

 

And that's without even getting into how silly it is to weigh it heavily with 5-10 games left, like you alluded to.

[UMFan83]

Good news, Giants: you don't have to worry about the Cubs' grounds crew conspiring to intentionally screw you over being a one-game difference in the division.

 

Could still screw them on HFA in the Wild Card playoff game.

[apete6]

Good news, Giants: you don't have to worry about the Cubs' grounds crew conspiring to intentionally screw you over being a one-game difference in the division.

 

Could still screw them on HFA in the Wild Card playoff game.

 

You guys do know that they ended up finishing that game, right?