Trading Soriano

[Guest]

I'm beginning to think Injury Recovery Bingo is a real game we are playing and we want some Wrist insurance in case Stewart does get cut.

 

How bad are his wrist issues and where is he in the recovery process?

[Guest]

He broke his wrist in spring training 2011, came back and played around 100 games between AAA/MLB. His injuries last year were leg injuries.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

There's nothing individually wrong with having Brown, DeJesus, or Schierholtz holding down an OF spot, or having Valbuena/Stewart manning 3B. All 4 at once would be a pretty huge disappointment. I do like Brown the best of those 4 though, so that's something.

 

Castillo belongs in this category too, and Barney is pretty close unless his defensive value was more than just a blip.

[Post Count Padder]

Yeah, my understanding is Brown has had some odd injuries and the Phillies never seemed interested in giving him the starting job. If we end up doing this deal, I'd be thrilled. It's about the best we could hope for. Brown is still young and still a decent hitter. And isn't a FA until 2018.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Yeah, my understanding is Brown has had some odd injuries and the Phillies never seemed interested in giving him the starting job. If we end up doing this deal, I'd be thrilled. It's about the best we could hope for. Brown is still young and still a decent hitter. And isn't a FA until 2018.

 

He's been a sub replacement player in the majors, had a .780 OPS in AAA last season, and is coming off of both wrist *and* knee injuries.

 

I get that everyone's chasing former top prospects, but the more I look, the more this guy just seems like a bad baseball player.

[Guest]

He just turned 25 and has less than 500 MLB PAs.

[sneakypower]

Brandon Phillips was sub-replacement in his first 464 PA before being sent to the Reds

 

he's averaged 4 wins for 7 seasons since

[Hairyducked Idiot]

He just turned 25 and has less than 500 MLB PAs.

 

A) I didn't just reference his MLB PAs. He didn't hit in AAA, either.

 

B) "Just" 25?

 

C) He's a guy depending on his speed and power tools coming off injuries that are known to have long-lasting effects on speed and power.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Brandon Phillips was sub-replacement in his first 464 PA before being sent to the Reds

 

he's averaged 4 wins for 7 seasons since

 

393 of those PAs came at 22, so it's not quite the same thing.

 

But regardless, survivor's bias. A lot of other players came up, sucked for a little, and then continued to suck.

[Guest]

Yes, he will play all of this season at 25. Do we really need to debate the benefit of having pre-prime/prime age players around?

 

Brown hit just fine in AAA when he wasn't battling injury. And in AA and A+ too. Yes he's had injury problems in 2 seasons, otherwise he wouldn't be someone that would be made available. In Spring Training he'll be 2 years clear of wrist surgery, and his leg problems were the first such injury I can see in his career. Neither should be couched as debilitating to his future performance. There's obviously a level of uncertainty, but that's what happens when you try to find undervalued commodities, especially those as young as Brown and with as good a pedigree as Brown.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Yes, he will play all of this season at 25. Do we really need to debate the benefit of having pre-prime/prime age players around?

 

No. But 25 is already in the middle of prime. I'm not going to give him a lot of projection credit beyond what he did last year in his age-24 prime season.

 

Brown hit just fine in AAA when he wasn't battling injury. And in AA and A+ too.

 

All three seasons ago or more. There's a point where that stops being the most relevant data when considering his projections.

 

Yes he's had injury problems in 2 seasons, otherwise he wouldn't be someone that would be made available. In Spring Training he'll be 2 years clear of wrist surgery, and his leg problems were the first such injury I can see in his career

 

How many MCL/PCL tears do you need before you start to worry about the long-term impact on a guy's legs?

 

Neither should be couched as debilitating to his future performance. There's obviously a level of uncertainty, but that's what happens when you try to find undervalued commodities, especially those as young as Brown and with as good a pedigree as Brown.

 

I'm pretty much tired of trying to find undervalued commodities this way. Hurt? Fine. Previously good but recently bad? Fine.

 

But both? That's just a sucker's bet.

[jersey cubs fan]

Yes, he will play all of this season at 25. Do we really need to debate the benefit of having pre-prime/prime age players around?

 

No. But 25 is already in the middle of prime.

 

Middle? That's still the start is it not, and just at the start.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Yes, he will play all of this season at 25. Do we really need to debate the benefit of having pre-prime/prime age players around?

 

No. But 25 is already in the middle of prime.

 

Middle? That's still the start is it not, and just at the start.

 

I'm a "24-27" prime guy, so if you want to call it "beginning of the middle" or "middle of the beginning" or whatever. It doesn't matter.

[SABR Gamer]

Yes, he will play all of this season at 25. Do we really need to debate the benefit of having pre-prime/prime age players around?

 

No. But 25 is already in the middle of prime. I'm not going to give him a lot of projection credit beyond what he did last year in his age-24 prime season.

 

Brown hit just fine in AAA when he wasn't battling injury. And in AA and A+ too.

 

All three seasons ago or more. There's a point where that stops being the most relevant data when considering his projections.

 

Yes he's had injury problems in 2 seasons, otherwise he wouldn't be someone that would be made available. In Spring Training he'll be 2 years clear of wrist surgery, and his leg problems were the first such injury I can see in his career

 

How many MCL/PCL tears do you need before you start to worry about the long-term impact on a guy's legs?

 

Neither should be couched as debilitating to his future performance. There's obviously a level of uncertainty, but that's what happens when you try to find undervalued commodities, especially those as young as Brown and with as good a pedigree as Brown.

 

I'm pretty much tired of trying to find undervalued commodities this way. Hurt? Fine. Previously good but recently bad? Fine.

 

But both? That's just a sucker's bet.

 

No chance those 2 might have some sort of relation to each other, huh?

[XZero771679666304]

Yes, he will play all of this season at 25. Do we really need to debate the benefit of having pre-prime/prime age players around?

 

No. But 25 is already in the middle of prime.

 

Middle? That's still the start is it not, and just at the start.

 

I'm a "24-27" prime guy, so if you want to call it "beginning of the middle" or "middle of the beginning" or whatever. It doesn't matter.

 

Who else is in the 24-27 camp? I've heard 27 often referenced as a likely peak point (more often 27-29), but not the end of prime. I think you'd be well in the minority if that's what you think.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

No chance those 2 might have some sort of relation to each other, huh?

 

Possibly, but that isn't a good thing. Recent injuries and recent bad performance, even if related, say bad things about a player's projection going forward.

[jersey cubs fan]

Yes, he will play all of this season at 25. Do we really need to debate the benefit of having pre-prime/prime age players around?

 

No. But 25 is already in the middle of prime.

 

Middle? That's still the start is it not, and just at the start.

 

I'm a "24-27" prime guy, so if you want to call it "beginning of the middle" or "middle of the beginning" or whatever. It doesn't matter.

It matters because it's not the middle of the prime. It's the beginning. He should get better for another couple years. You act as though he's already reached his peak at this age and will be plateauing for the next couple years.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

It matters because it's not the middle of the prime. It's the beginning. He should get better for another couple years. You act as though he's already reached his peak at this age and will be plateauing for the next couple years.

 

If you're talking in those terms, then that's very possible. What we think of as "prime" features a selection bias for guys who have prolonged MLB careers.

 

For the population of all professional players, the plateau age is much earlier.

[XZero771679666304]

It matters because it's not the middle of the prime. It's the beginning. He should get better for another couple years. You act as though he's already reached his peak at this age and will be plateauing for the next couple years.

 

If you're talking in those terms, then that's very possible. What we think of as "prime" features a selection bias for guys who have prolonged MLB careers.

 

For the population of all professional players, the plateau age is much earlier.

 

It's not 24-27. A better range to characterize as plateau would be 26-29.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

It's not 24-27. A better range to characterize as plateau would be 26-29.

 

When you look at the sample of all professional players and not just sustained MLBers, it's more like 20. But that's a huge tangent.

 

I can say the Cubs don't want Brown and there is virtually no chance of this happening.

http://forums.prosportsdaily.com/showthread.php?t=787367&page=5

 

About time they started listening to me.

[XZero771679666304]

It's not 24-27. A better range to characterize as plateau would be 26-29.

 

When you look at the sample of all professional players and not just sustained MLBers, it's more like 20. But that's a huge tangent.

 

 

Indeed.

 

But among sustained MLBers, it's not as early as you're contending.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

But among sustained MLBers, it's not as early as you're contending.

 

But getting back to the main point, since we don't know if Brown is going to be a sustained MLBer, it's a bit presumptuous to cram him onto that curve.

 

His best season to date came at 22, and there's a very good chance that stays his best season.

[XZero771679666304]

But among sustained MLBers, it's not as early as you're contending.

 

But getting back to the main point, since we don't know if Brown is going to be a sustained MLBer, it's a bit presumptuous to cram him onto that curve.

 

His best season to date came at 22, and there's a very good chance that stays his best season.

 

True. Or at least I'd agree with that.

[abuck1220]

It's not 24-27. A better range to characterize as plateau would be 26-29.

 

When you look at the sample of all professional players and not just sustained MLBers, it's more like 20. But that's a huge tangent.

 

take into account gymnasts and i bet it goes down ever more.

 

FASCINATING STUFF

[Tracer Bullet]

No chance those 2 might have some sort of relation to each other, huh?

 

Possibly, but that isn't a good thing. Recent injuries and recent bad performance, even if related, say bad things about a player's projection going forward.

 

So we're considering the possibility that his bad performance that came immediately during and after his injuries might be related to said injuries. Might?

 

I'm not sure it's intellectually honest to count those as two separate strikes against him. If you still don't want to take a shot with Brown, whatever. But let's not pretend that there was some chance he would have his best performance while injured so the fact that he didn't is some negative data point.