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Posted

courtesy of Lee Sinins:

 

Braves--SSs Alex Gonzalez and Jack Wilson, CF Nate McLouth, Ps Scott Linebrink and George Sherrill

Diamondbacks--1B Lyle Overbay, 1B-OF Xavier Nady, 2B Aaron Hill, Ps Zach Duke and Jason Marquis

Baltimore Orioles--SS Cesar Izturis, DH Vladimir Guerrero

Red Sox--1B-LF Conor Jackson, RF J.D. Drew, C Jason Varitek, DH David Ortiz, Ps Scott Atchison, Erik Bedard, Trever Miller, Jonathan Papelbon, Tim Wakefield and Dan Wheeler

Cubs--1B Carlos Pena, 3B Aramis Ramirez, LF Reed Johnson, Ps John Grabow, Rodrigo Lopez, Ramon Ortiz and Kerry Wood

White Sox--3B-SS Omar Vizquel, LF Juan Pierre, C Ramon Castro, P Mark Buehrle

Reds--SS Edgar Renteria, C Ramon Hernandez, Ps Francisco Cordero and Dontrelle Willis

Indians--CF Grady Sizemore, RF Kosuke Fukudome, DH Jim Thome, P Chad Durbin

Rockies--2B Mark Ellis, Ps Aaron Cook, Kevin Millwood and J.C. Romero

Tigers--INFs Wilson Betemit, Ramon Santiago, RF Magglio Ordonez, utilityman Carlos Guillen, RF Magglio Ordonez, Ps Brad Penny and Joel Zumaya

Marlins--3B Greg Dobbs and Jose Lopez, P Javier Vazquez

Astros--SS Clint Barmes, LF Jason Michaels

Royals--C Jason Kendall, Ps Bruce Chen and Jeff Francis

Angels--1B Russell Branyan, Ps Joel Pineiro, Horacio Ramirez and Fernando Rodney

Dodgers--INFs Jamey Carroll and Aaron Miles, 3B Casey Blake, LF Juan Rivera, C Rod Barajas, Ps Jonathan Broxton, Jon Garland, Hiroki Kuroda, Mike MacDougal and Vicente Padilla

Brewers--1B Prince Fielder, SS Yuniesky Betancourt, INF Craig Counsell, CF Mark Kotsay, utilityman Jerry Hairston Jr., Ps LaTroy Hawkins, Francisco Rodriguez and Takashi Saito

Twins--RF-1B Michael Cuddyer, RF Jason Kubel, Ps Matt Capps and Joe Nathan

Mets--SS Jose Reyes, OFs Scott Hairston and Willie Harris, Ps Miguel Batista, Chris Capuano, Jason Isringhausen and Chris Young

Yankees--3B Eric Chavez, LF Andruw Jones, DH Jorge Posada, Ps Luis Ayala, Bartolo Colon, Freddy Garcia, Damaso Marte and Sergio Mitre

A's--LF Josh Willingham, CF Coco Crisp, RF David DeJesus, DH Hideki Matsui, P Rich Harden

Phillies--1B-OF Ross Gload, SS Jimmy Rollins, LF Raul Ibanez, C Brian Schneider, Ps Brad Lidge, Ryan Madson and Roy Oswalt

Pirates--1B Derrek Lee, SS Ronny Cedeno, LF-RF Ryan Ludwick, Cs Ryan Doumit and Chris Snyder P Paul Maholm

Padres--1B-OF Brad Hawpe, Ps Heath Bell, Aaron Harang and Chad Qualls

Mariners--INF Adam Kennedy, OF Wily Mo Pena, C Josh Bard, Ps David Aardsma and Jamey Wright

Giants--SS Orlando Cabrera, OF Cody Ross, LF Pat Burrell, RF Carlos Beltran, utilityman Mark DeRosa, P Guillermo Mota

Cardinals--1B Albert Pujols, SS Rafael Furcal, INF Nick Punto, OF Corey Patterson, C Gerald Laird, Ps Octavio Dotel, Edwin Jackson and Arthur Rhodes

Rays--1B Casey Kotchman, LF Johnny Damon, C Kelly Shoppach, P Juan Cruz

Rangers--OF Endy Chavez, C Matt Treanor, Ps Mike Gonzalez, Darren Oliver, Brandon Webb and C.J. Wilson

Blue Jays--2B Kelly Johnson, C Jose Molina, Ps Shawn Camp, Frank Francisco and Jon Rauch

Nationals--INF Alex Cora, LFs Jonny Gomes and Laynce Nix, CF Rick Ankiel, C Ivan Rodriguez, Ps Todd Coffey and Livan Hernandez

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Posted
Wow, Lee Sinins. There's a name I haven't heard in years.
Posted

If we whiff on Pujols and Fielder, would you consider bringing Lee back for a year with a club option for second? Obviously not ideal, but he played well for the Bucs last year.

 

BTW, I didn't mention Pena because I assume he will want at least a three year contract.

Posted

http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/news?slug=jp-passan_ultimate_free_agent_tracker_baseball_110211

 

Here's another list.

 

He's got Pena listed 19th and said he had "an excellent season". I'm not sure how a guy who was 16th at his position for WAR could be considered excellent.

 

Kerry Wood is listed 35th and the quote is: "His reinvention as a late-inning reliever is one of the nicer stories in baseball. No more talking about what could’ve been. What he is now is pretty darn good."

 

I like the guy, but Kerry Wood has not been "pretty darn good."

Posted
http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/news?slug=jp-passan_ultimate_free_agent_tracker_baseball_110211

 

Here's another list.

 

He's got Pena listed 19th and said he had "an excellent season". I'm not sure how a guy who was 16th at his position for WAR could be considered excellent.

 

Kerry Wood is listed 35th and the quote is: "His reinvention as a late-inning reliever is one of the nicer stories in baseball. No more talking about what could’ve been. What he is now is pretty darn good."

 

I like the guy, but Kerry Wood has not been "pretty darn good."

He had a 117 ERA+ and 10+ K/9 with the fourth highest K/BB of his career. I'd say he was pretty darn good, especially for his cost.

 

According to BP's #s, Pena was 10th among 1B at WAR with 2.26, between Todd Helton and Ryan Howard. Not great, but he had a decent season.

Posted
He had a 117 ERA+ and 10+ K/9 with the fourth highest K/BB of his career. I'd say he was pretty darn good, especially for his cost.

 

According to BP's #s, Pena was 10th among 1B at WAR with 2.26, between Todd Helton and Ryan Howard. Not great, but he had a decent season.

 

Other stats for Wood are pretty bad. ERA+ is only another version of looking at his ERA, not great. Fangraphs have him worth less than his contract. He's way down the list of relievers and was not pretty darn good.

 

And Pena's decent season doesn't not equate to excellence.

Posted
He had a 117 ERA+ and 10+ K/9 with the fourth highest K/BB of his career. I'd say he was pretty darn good, especially for his cost.

 

According to BP's #s, Pena was 10th among 1B at WAR with 2.26, between Todd Helton and Ryan Howard. Not great, but he had a decent season.

 

Other stats for Wood are pretty bad. ERA+ is only another version of looking at his ERA, not great. Fangraphs have him worth less than his contract. He's way down the list of relievers and was not pretty darn good.

 

And Pena's decent season doesn't not equate to excellence.

 

WAR and the dollar value that it assigns undervalues late-inning relievers. It's not a good metric to use for them.

 

What other stats of Wood's are pretty bad? He struck out a ton of guys, gave up an average amount of home runs, and walked a few too many.

Posted
He had a 117 ERA+ and 10+ K/9 with the fourth highest K/BB of his career. I'd say he was pretty darn good, especially for his cost.

 

According to BP's #s, Pena was 10th among 1B at WAR with 2.26, between Todd Helton and Ryan Howard. Not great, but he had a decent season.

 

Other stats for Wood are pretty bad. ERA+ is only another version of looking at his ERA, not great. Fangraphs have him worth less than his contract. He's way down the list of relievers and was not pretty darn good.

 

And Pena's decent season doesn't not equate to excellence.

 

WAR and the dollar value that it assigns undervalues late-inning relievers. It's not a good metric to use for them.

 

What other stats of Wood's are pretty bad? He struck out a ton of guys, gave up an average amount of home runs, and walked a few too many.

right, WAR looks at relievers like every other player from a purely runs standpoint, which is flawed in trying to assign value to them in my opinion

 

Tyler Clippard had the 2nd highest WPA amongst all pitchers, behind only Verlander; i don't think we really know of a good way to place value on RPs yet

Posted
What other stats of Wood's are pretty bad? He struck out a ton of guys, gave up an average amount of home runs, and walked a few too many.

 

There were like 60 relievers in the NL who held opponents to a lower OPS against and only 6 who had more blown saves. He was a completely middling middle reliever this year. Probably 4th best guy on a not so good Cubs bullpen. He was not "darn good" this year and he wasn't last year either.

Posted
I'll admit, I didn't even realize Livan Hernandez was still alive, let alone still playing.

 

LOL I was thinking the same thing. Reminds me of Major League where the owner gives the GM the list of Spring Training Invites. "This guy is dead." "Well cross him off the list then!"

Posted
What other stats of Wood's are pretty bad? He struck out a ton of guys, gave up an average amount of home runs, and walked a few too many.

 

There were like 60 relievers in the NL who held opponents to a lower OPS against and only 6 who had more blown saves. He was a completely middling middle reliever this year. Probably 4th best guy on a not so good Cubs bullpen. He was not "darn good" this year and he wasn't last year either.

1) Blown saves? Really?

2) 60 relievers with a better OPS against means he's a pretty darned good middle reliever.

3) Give me a measure by which the Cubs bullpen wasn't very good, besides walks. For having an overall pitching staff that was a disaster, the bullpen overall was excellent. Even if he were the 4th best guy in that pen (after Marshall, any argument for Samardzija, Wood, Marmol or Russell is about equally valid), that's pretty darn good for a 4th best guy in a pen.

Posted

on the topic of relievers, i had a somewhat asinine idea looking through the FA stats: sign Papelbon to be a starter

 

you have to figure he's going to max out at about $11M AAV in this closer-rich FA market. could he be bought out of closing (3 years, $47M)? he's got relatively little wear on his arm, is just 30, with his pitches he profiles similar to Rich Harden (bad health aside) and his stats are sensational: 12.17 K/9, 1.40 BB/9 (this season). he could be even better than CJ Wilson at a fraction of the cost

 

like i said, it's probably a terrible idea, but it's still got me wondering a little bit. if the experiment totally failed somehow, you're still just left overpaying your closer by a couple million bucks

Posted
sign Papelbon to be a starter

 

you have to figure he's going to max out at about $11M AAV in this closer-rich FA market. could he be bought out of closing (3 years, $47M)?

 

I like the concept of converting the guy, but you'd have to figure 2012 would be an experimental year, limiting his innings and potentially piggybacking him with other pitchers. You'd be spending a lot of money on that experiment. He's only gone past 50 pitches three times in his career. What could you really expect out of him, 25 starts for 100 innings?

 

Guys might prefer to be starters, but if you can make big time money as a reliever and have been a successful reliever for many years, I'm not sure there's enough incentive to take the risk.

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