Re: Darvish

[SouthSideRyan]

In the never ending series of contradictory tweets...

 

RT @ChiTribRogers Chances of #Cubs being surprise winners in Darvish bidding? Better than chances of getting Theo Epstein to come to Chicago

 

 

Retweeted by Ace

 

Maybe I'm just stating the obvious but my thought was he was talking about the chances of getting theo when the GM search process started. But then if he's saying that, he's saying the Cubs have a better than 2% chance of getting Darvish?

 

Maybe somebody who's paid to write should learn how to write.

[jersey cubs fan]

In the never ending series of contradictory tweets...

 

RT @ChiTribRogers Chances of #Cubs being surprise winners in Darvish bidding? Better than chances of getting Theo Epstein to come to Chicago

 

 

Retweeted by Ace

 

Maybe I'm just stating the obvious but my thought was he was talking about the chances of getting theo when the GM search process started. But then if he's saying that, he's saying the Cubs have a better than 2% chance of getting Darvish?

 

Maybe somebody who's paid to write should learn how to write.

 

I assumed that's how he meant it as well. Sort of like, nobody thought they'd get Theo back in September.

[Clem Fandango]

An article on Fangraphs looks to find a current MLB equivalent to Yu Darvish.

 

Darvish: 25 years old, 10.7 K/9, 57% groundball rate, 94 MPH fastball velocity.

 

There were 11 25 year old major league pitchers last year who pitched at least 150 innings. Four (Wade Davis, Dillon Gee, Jair Jurrjens, Josh Collmenter) are soft tossers, and three others (David Price, Gio Gonzalez, Matt Harrison) are lefty.

 

That leaves four potential comparables: Felix Hernandez, Jordan Zimmerman, Johnny Cueto and Yovani Gallardo. How much would you pay to get one of those four players, if all it took was cash?

 

The drop off in talent between Felix Hernandez and everyone else on the entire list is pretty substantial (you could argue David Price isn't far behind). It depends on which one of those four that we'd get comparable production from out of Darvish. If we got Hernandez like production I'd pay the rumored $100 million posting fee + contract and never think twice about it. If we paid that much and got Gallardo like production out of it I'd be very satisfied, but not overly excited. Cueto I think was smoke and mirrors this year. He's a nice pitcher but not worth this amount of money. Zimmermann is nice but he hasn't logged enough full time service because of injuries to really know if his true production is worth gambling that much on.

[bukie]

Zimmerman's probably the best comp. Same age, same plus pitches, similar walk rates, similar groundball and strikeout rates in the minors, plus it even builds in some injury risk. Zimmerman's 2011 production projected to 200 innings would be 4.3 fWAR.

[Clem Fandango]

Zimmerman's probably the best comp. Same age, same plus pitches, similar walk rates, similar groundball and strikeout rates in the minors, plus it even builds in some injury risk. Zimmerman's 2011 production projected to 200 innings would be 4.3 fWAR.

 

If that's what Zimmermann can consistently put up, and Darvish can match it, I'd be a happy camper.

[Guest]

Just curious, what's Darvish's 3rd pitch? Does he have a 4th? Are they considered good enough for 3rd/4th major league pitches?

[bukie]

Zimmerman's probably the best comp. Same age, same plus pitches, similar walk rates, similar groundball and strikeout rates in the minors, plus it even builds in some injury risk. Zimmerman's 2011 production projected to 200 innings would be 4.3 fWAR.

 

If that's what Zimmermann can consistently put up, and Darvish can match it, I'd be a happy camper.

Assuming a player peak at 27-29 years old, a rough projection with a 4.3 fWAR baseline would mean a total of 25 WAR of production over a 5 year period (~29 over 6).

 

So, if, say, the posting bid is 50 million, and the contract is 5/50 or even 6/70, the winning team would still net value.

Edited December 15, 2011 by bukie

[bukie]

Just curious, what's Darvish's 3rd pitch? Does he have a 4th? Are they considered good enough for 3rd/4th major league pitches?

He's a fastball-slider pitcher, with a second type of slider and a cutter as his tertiary pitches. As to whether they're good enough for 3rd/4th major league pitches, it's hard to say, but they're good enough for the professional Japanese league, which is better than AAA.

[C.C.]

Just curious, what's Darvish's 3rd pitch? Does he have a 4th? Are they considered good enough for 3rd/4th major league pitches?

 

Gyro

[Northside Blues]

Just curious, what's Darvish's 3rd pitch? Does he have a 4th? Are they considered good enough for 3rd/4th major league pitches?

 

Gyro

http://blog.eat24hours.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/12/Gyro-House.jpg

[C.C.]

Yummy. Craving Athenian Room on Webster and Halsted. I miss that place.

[kujay]

Yeah that looks good.

[C.C.]

The Kalamata Chicken is my fave.

 

 

 

http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-HM7I29kqvFc/Tt7gruPm0WI/AAAAAAAADM8/vrfX2KVdU4A/s320/chizakaya+028.JPG

[Sammy Sofa]

Oh God, C.C. ate right near where I live. Near my home. My home!!! Where I sleep, where I come to play with my toys.

[XZero771679666304]

I'd have to drive two hours to get to a Greek place, so I have to make gryros myself.

[Bull]

In the never ending series of contradictory tweets...

 

RT @ChiTribRogers Chances of #Cubs being surprise winners in Darvish bidding? Better than chances of getting Theo Epstein to come to Chicago

 

 

Retweeted by Ace

 

Maybe I'm just stating the obvious but my thought was he was talking about the chances of getting theo when the GM search process started. But then if he's saying that, he's saying the Cubs have a better than 2% chance of getting Darvish?

 

Maybe somebody who's paid to write should learn how to write.

 

I assumed that's how he meant it as well. Sort of like, nobody thought they'd get Theo back in September.

 

I think its abundantly clear. Doesn't seem likely, but neither did Theo, so you never know.

[C.C.]

Oh God, C.C. ate right near where I live. Near my home. My home!!! Where I sleep, where I come to play with my toys.

 

A little bit too much information.

 

But yeah, I lived right by the Black Duck for about 10 years.

[C.C.]

I'd have to drive two hours to get to a Greek place, so I have to make gryros myself.

 

Really? Where do you live that you don't have a Greek place by you?

[Sammy Sofa]

Oh God, C.C. ate right near where I live. Near my home. My home!!! Where I sleep, where I come to play with my toys.

 

A little bit too much information.

 

Two ways this couldn't have WHOOSHed you, man.

[Tracer Bullet]

Oh God, C.C. ate right near where I live. Near my home. My home!!! Where I sleep, where I come to play with my toys.

 

A little bit too much information.

 

But yeah, I lived right by the Black Duck for about 10 years.

 

Wow. My sister lived around the corner from you for a couple years.

[Sammy Sofa]

Oh God, C.C. ate right near where I live. Near my home. My home!!! Where I sleep, where I come to play with my toys.

 

A little bit too much information.

 

But yeah, I lived right by the Black Duck for about 10 years.

 

Wow. My sister lived around the corner from you for a couple years.

 

Ugh, this is terrifying; I live right down the street from there.

[Tracer Bullet]

Oh God, C.C. ate right near where I live. Near my home. My home!!! Where I sleep, where I come to play with my toys.

 

A little bit too much information.

 

But yeah, I lived right by the Black Duck for about 10 years.

 

Wow. My sister lived around the corner from you for a couple years.

 

Ugh, this is terrifying; I live right down the street from there.

 

She doesn't live anywhere near there now. Hasn't for probably 5-6 years.

[C.C.]

Oh God, C.C. ate right near where I live. Near my home. My home!!! Where I sleep, where I come to play with my toys.

 

A little bit too much information.

 

But yeah, I lived right by the Black Duck for about 10 years.

 

Wow. My sister lived around the corner from you for a couple years.

 

 

It's a great area and I miss it. I was there recently and noticed Sam's Wine and Spirits is now a Binny's? That was such a bummer to see.

[C.C.]

Oh God, C.C. ate right near where I live. Near my home. My home!!! Where I sleep, where I come to play with my toys.

 

A little bit too much information.

 

But yeah, I lived right by the Black Duck for about 10 years.

 

Wow. My sister lived around the corner from you for a couple years.

 

Ugh, this is terrifying; I live right down the street from there.

 

She doesn't live anywhere near there now. Hasn't for probably 5-6 years.

 

I moved out of there about 7-8 years ago.

[Sammy Sofa]

Oh God, C.C. ate right near where I live. Near my home. My home!!! Where I sleep, where I come to play with my toys.

 

A little bit too much information.

 

But yeah, I lived right by the Black Duck for about 10 years.

 

Wow. My sister lived around the corner from you for a couple years.

 

Ugh, this is terrifying; I live right down the street from there.

 

She doesn't live anywhere near there now. Hasn't for probably 5-6 years.

 

Well, I wasn't terrified at the idea of your sister living there, but now you make it sound like I should be.