Re: Darvish

[Backtobanks]

From MLBTR:

 

•The Yankees have scouted Japanese pitcher Yu Darvish heavily, according to Sherman. Darvish, 25, "is coming" to the Major Leagues this offseason, according to one of Sherman's sources.

 

I don't suppose we can outbid the Yankees, but we can dream.

[erik316wttn]

It's such a crapshoot with Japanese players. Sure, you could get someone like Ichiro who would do just fine, even thrive at the MLB level. But then you could get stuck with a monster contract for a Dice-K as well.

[Clem Fandango]

Meh.

[Sammy Sofa]

No thanks.

[ConstableRabbit]

Darvish is intriguing, but can anyone name one Asian starter who has had sustained success in the majors?

 

I feel like they AAAA hitters they face can't hit their soft breaking stuff and they end up having some gimmick -- relievers have been more effective but I think that has to do with facing less hitters and it taking longer to figure out their stuff.

[Castro13]

Darvish is intriguing, but can anyone name one Asian starter who has had sustained success in the majors?

 

I feel like they AAAA hitters they face can't hit their soft breaking stuff and they end up having some gimmick -- relievers have been more effective but I think that has to do with facing less hitters and it taking longer to figure out their stuff.

Kuroda?

[SouthSideRyan]

Nomo and Kuroda

[shnsajax]

He's not an outright FA is he, I just can't imagine the posting fee being too friendly either. He probably has the best chance for success in the Major's of any Japanese pitcher but its a bug risk. At the same token, I would still make a bid. If we happen to win the posting then great but that alone might cost $20+ million alone.

[Guest]

Yeah, I have a hard time seeing any pitcher being worth the gamble of a posting fee that's more than a couple million.

[Guest]

Daisuke's implosion is going to severely limit the posting fee for Darvish. I'd probably bid up to $10M, but wouldn't go any higher than that. I'd also have to have awfully strong recommendations from my scouts to go that high.

[StarlinOnYou]

Save it for the farm / international signings.

 

Even $10M is a complete waste just to negotiate with someone who is such a gamble.

 

Think about what Wilken could have done with even an extra $4M in this past draft. That's basically two other overslot players like Maples.

[Guest]

There will be some pretty good NPB pitchers coming over who are actual free agents and don't need a posting fee. I'd love to see the Cubs go after Wei-Yin Chen who is only 26 so he doesn't have a ton of miles racked up on his arm yet in comparison to most Japanese FAs.

[ConstableRabbit]

Nomo and Kuroda

Nomo had a ridiculous rookie campaign, but he never came close to replicating that success and ended up with a career ERA+ under 100.

 

Kuroda is one I missed -- will be interested in seeing how his career ends up.

[SouthSideRyan]

2000 innings of league average production is pretty good.

[Clem Fandango]

2000 innings of league average production is pretty good.

 

Are you sure it's not pretty average?

[SouthSideRyan]

2000 innings of league average production is pretty good.

 

Are you sure it's not pretty average?

 

Yes.

[MrCub14]

I never thought of this as much of a chance for us. Now that we have Theo, things change. Look at the way he went after Daisuke! He could make the same sort of play for Yu Darvish. I'd be all for it. I think CJ Wilson re-signs in Texas, and that leaves the existing market looking very bare for starting pitching.

[Vinestal]

Meh, I'm with others I think there are wiser areas to spend the money. Is Steve Wilson still our Asian scout? or was that some sort of bizarre dream I had?

[KingKongvs.Godzilla]

I actually really, really like the talent of this guy. I would not trust him to be an ace, I wouldn't trust that on any IFA who signs to the big leagues in his 20's (culture shock, tougher competition, different mounds and balls). OTOH, I do think he can be a 2-3 starter capable of throwing up an ace-esque season or two. His stuff is excellent, so I have very few worries there. What separates him from other high end Japanese pitchers is 1. his age, 2. his height, 3. and his build (along with his height he's a very long and loose athlete). He's built more like an American pitcher than a Japanese pitcher IMO...and that's a big advantage for him. I also like that he seems to have more of an extroverted personality than guys like Matsuzaka for some reason...I guess because it's a clash with a stereotype.

 

I do think he'll need some coaching to work on some mechanics, but otherwise I actually buy most of the hype on this guy. Anyway, money is a factor to me to a point. He'll cost a pretty penny, but if he's any good at all the Cubs will make that back fairly easily. I would not be mad to see this team in on the chase there. I'd prefer Wilson, but only because I know for a fact that Wilson can be a high end starter in the majors.

[Outshined_One]

Nomo and Kuroda

Nomo had a ridiculous rookie campaign, but he never came close to replicating that success and ended up with a career ERA+ under 100.

 

Kuroda is one I missed -- will be interested in seeing how his career ends up.

 

Kuroda is available this offseason. He'll be 37 next season, but might be worth a 1-2 year deal to help shore up the rotation.

[toonsterwu]

Nomo and Kuroda

Nomo had a ridiculous rookie campaign, but he never came close to replicating that success and ended up with a career ERA+ under 100.

 

Kuroda is one I missed -- will be interested in seeing how his career ends up.

 

Kuroda is available this offseason. He'll be 37 next season, but might be worth a 1-2 year deal to help shore up the rotation.

 

Isn't the rumor on him that he's going to stay in LA or go back to Japan, with the slim chance that he'd ponder a New York team?

[toonsterwu]

Darvish is intriguing, but can anyone name one Asian starter who has had sustained success in the majors?

 

I feel like they AAAA hitters they face can't hit their soft breaking stuff and they end up having some gimmick -- relievers have been more effective but I think that has to do with facing less hitters and it taking longer to figure out their stuff.

 

Chien-Ming Wang has probably been more successful than many, but that's a slightly different case in that he was brought over as a youngster, unlike a Matsuzaka/Nomo/Kuroda, or even a Darvish, guys that would be coming over in their primes, or the end of their primes. Wang looks to have a few solid mid-end of the rotation years left in him, though. Wang was also slightly different in that he was a big guy.

 

As for Darvish, isn't the heavy rumor out there that the Blue Jays are going to be heavy in on him and might be the favorites? All that said, I think Ricketts will likely give Theo the resources Theo wants, and if Theo really wants him, I think we could be in the bidding. I imagine, though, it may come down to the usual cast of characters, Yankees, Mariners, maybe Blue Jays.

[davell]

With Theo being the stung by Daisuke, my guess is he'd be pretty cautious here. I gotta admit that I would be anyway. That said, I like Tim's suggestion of a 10 mill bid or so. At least that wouldn't kill us monetarily if he wound up being average or worse. Basically, I guess I'm saying to stay away.

[El Duderino]

this guy's a lock for the yankees, who are desperate for starters at the moment. Unless they plan on having freddy garcia and bartolo in their rotation again.

[toonsterwu]

this guy's a lock for the yankees, who are desperate for starters at the moment. Unless they plan on having freddy garcia and bartolo in their rotation again.

 

I'm not so sure it's a lock. I think they'll be in it, but in an offseason where they likely have to re-up with CC and pay him more, do they want two long term contracts when they have several contracts on the book that may be problematic. Add in the fact that they may re-up with Cano soon (perhaps as soon as this offseason), along with the love that Cashman has for Banuelos and Betances, I could see them look for other additions if the cost gets out of control. I think they'll be in it, but I just don't know if it's a lock.