Yankees mulling moves for Soriano, Ramirez, Grabow?

[XZero771679666304]

 

I would love to see it happen, but the idea that Wilson and Fielder are going to push us to 85+ wins is absurd.

 

Are you expecting the '12 Cubs to give 1/3 of their starts to Casey Coleman, Doug Davis, James Russell, Rodrigo Lopez, and Ramon Ortiz? Because the '11 Cubs have played at a ~82 win pace when these losers aren't starting.

 

Odds are we won't see the same scenario, one where every one of our SP have missed starts, repeat itself.

[Tarver]

 

I would love to see it happen, but the idea that Wilson and Fielder are going to push us to 85+ wins is absurd.

 

Are you expecting the '12 Cubs to give 1/3 of their starts to Casey Coleman, Doug Davis, James Russell, Rodrigo Lopez, and Ramon Ortiz? Because the '11 Cubs have played at a ~82 win pace when these losers aren't starting.

 

I'm aware of that. But we can't assume health.

[Tryptamine]

 

I would love to see it happen, but the idea that Wilson and Fielder are going to push us to 85+ wins is absurd.

 

Are you expecting the '12 Cubs to give 1/3 of their starts to Casey Coleman, Doug Davis, James Russell, Rodrigo Lopez, and Ramon Ortiz? Because the '11 Cubs have played at a ~82 win pace when these losers aren't starting.

 

I'm aware of that. But we can't assume health.

 

I feel like it's a pretty safe bet that 4/5 of our starters wont hit the DL before the all star break again next year.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

You're holding the defense/luck against the current staff. Zambrano/Dempster/Garza have xFIPs more than a full run better than their current ERAs.

 

The thing I hate about modern peripherals is that there's so many of them, it feels like you can always find one to project a guy you like to do better than he is and the reverse for someone you don't like. Not saying you are doing that here, but I am beginning to see that in some places.

 

Anyway, more relevantly:

 

Garza and Dempster I'll grant you, but Zambrano's xFIP is right in line with his ERA right now, 4.21/4.34. If we're putting that much faith in xFIP, then he's been an average or a little worse pitcher for a few years now and coasting on luck.

[Exile on Waveland]

Yeah, I don't see our defense getting any better next year. We'll be parting with perhaps our two best defenders in Pena and Fukudome. Fukudome could be replaced, but Pujols is not better with the glove than Pena, and Fielder is far worse. You can't really cite defense as being accessory to the poor pitching performance this year without acknowledging it probably will still be a factor next year as well.

 

To sign Fielder and improve the defense next year in an appreciable way, you'd likely have to replace Aramis and Kosuke with very good defenders and hope for improvement from Castro. That is unless you can find a way to unload Soriano or replace Byrd with a better defender, or slide him to RF and bring in another CF.

 

People overlook defense at 1B, IMO. We've had superior defenders at 1B for the better part of 20 years here, and Fielder would make for a bit of an epiphany.

 

Isn't that (somewhat?) likely to happen with Brett Jackson? Otherwise, I agree, the defense isn't likely to improve a whole lot -- barring changes none of us are expecting.

[Sammy Sofa]

Garza and Dempster I'll grant you, but Zambrano's xFIP is right in line with his ERA right now, 4.21/4.34. If we're putting that much faith in xFIP, then he's been an average or a little worse pitcher for a few years now and coasting on luck.

 

And how likely do you think that is? That he's been coasting on luck for several seasons?

Edited July 11, 2011 by Sammy Sofa

[Guest]

Garza and Dempster I'll grant you, but Zambrano's xFIP is right in line with his ERA right now, 4.21/4.34. If we're putting that much faith in xFIP, then he's been an average or a little worse pitcher for a few years now and coasting on luck.

 

And by that measure he'd be the 4th best pitcher in the hypothetical rotation. And that xFIP places him around 90th in MLB among qualified starters, and it leaves out that Zambrano has outperformed his xFIP for nearly 1800 IP now. It's not the Phillies' rotation, and I don't think anyone has thoughts that "Fielder + Wilson = 90+ wins guaranteed!", but you're letting recency bias in way too much here.

[SouthSideRyan]

 

I would love to see it happen, but the idea that Wilson and Fielder are going to push us to 85+ wins is absurd.

 

Are you expecting the '12 Cubs to give 1/3 of their starts to Casey Coleman, Doug Davis, James Russell, Rodrigo Lopez, and Ramon Ortiz? Because the '11 Cubs have played at a ~82 win pace when these losers aren't starting.

 

I'm aware of that. But we can't assume health.

 

Good thing signing Wilson would push Cashner/Wells to 6th starter. Or can we assume 2 starters being down at the same time for a long stretch again?

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Garza and Dempster I'll grant you, but Zambrano's xFIP is right in line with his ERA right now, 4.21/4.34. If we're putting that much faith in xFIP, then he's been an average or a little worse pitcher for a few years now and coasting on luck.

 

And how likely do you think that is? That he's been coasting on luck for several seasons?

 

Roughly equally likely to having almost all of our rotation doomed by bad luck simultaneously.

[Sammy Sofa]

Garza and Dempster I'll grant you, but Zambrano's xFIP is right in line with his ERA right now, 4.21/4.34. If we're putting that much faith in xFIP, then he's been an average or a little worse pitcher for a few years now and coasting on luck.

 

And how likely do you think that is? That he's been coasting on luck for several seasons?

 

Roughly equally likely to having almost all of our rotation doomed by bad luck simultaneously.

 

Those don't seem very comparable. I mean, they're both arguably examples of "luck," but one is a series of occurrences in a single season involving multiple people suffering what isn't all that an unusual thing (injuries to pitchers) in the grand scheme of things. The other is a guy in one of the most easily exposed positions in the game somehow coasting pretty significantly on luck for multiple seasons. I can buy a pitcher getting lucky for 1-2 seasons, but a "few" (which is presumably 3+)?

[TruffleShuffle]

Roughly equally likely to having almost all of our rotation doomed by bad luck simultaneously.

 

bad defense