Players Eligible for December's Rule 5 Draft

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Got this from Arizona Phil:

 

ELIGIBLE FOR SELECTION IN DECEMBER 2011 RULE 5 DRAFT:

Jeffry Antigua, LHP

Adrian Aviles, LHP (unless MLB Rule 55 minor league FA - see above)

Jeff Beliveau, LHP

Austin Bibens-Dirkx, RHP (unless MLB Rule 55 minor league FA - see above)

Smaily Borges, OF

Michael Brenly, C

Michael Burgess, OF

Kyler Burke, LHP (ex-OF)

David Cales, RHP

Matt Camp, IF-OF

Hung-Wen Chen, RHP

Steve Clevenger, C-1B

Manolin DeLeon, RHP

Carlos Figueroa, INF (unless MLB Rule 55 minor league FA - see above)

Eduardo Figueroa, RHP

Ryan Flaherty, IF-OF

Luis Flores, C

Marwin Gonzalez, IF-OF

Miguel Gonzalez, C

Yohan Gonzalez, RHP

Jose Guevara, C

Gian Guzman, INF-RHP (player-coach)

Marcus Hatley, RHP

Jay Jackson, RHP

Junior Lake, INF

Blake Lalli, C-1B

Jordan Latham, RHP

David Macias, IF-OF

Oswaldo Martinez, RHP

Craig Muschko, RHP

Jon Nagel, RHP

Jake Opitz, INF

Blake Parker, RHP

Nelson Perez, OF

Ramon Reyes, RHP

Dae-Eun Rhee, RHP

Rebel Ridling, 1B

Carlos Romero, C

Nate Samson, INF

Ryan Searle, RHP

Marquez Smith, 3B

Matt Spencer, 1B-OF

Larry Suarez, RHP

Matt Szczur, OF

Jose Tineo, RHP

Jose Valdez, OF

Josh Vitters, 3B-1B

Ty Wright, OF

 

At this point, I'd add Jeff Beliveau, Steve Clevenger (and say bye to Koyie Hill), Ryan Flaherty, Marwin Gonzalez, Matt Szczur and Josh Vitters. Obviously, this could change as players emerge the rest of the season.

[Guest]

holy cow...lots of trouble there.

[TruffleShuffle]

holy cow...lots of trouble there.

 

not really... most systems probably have lists like that. there are a handful of guys who have to be protected - szczur, vitters, beliveau, flaherty - then a few guys you might want to protect and a bunch of filler. right now the 40-man has a bunch of guys who can easily go away without anyone being upset - berg, caridad, maybe coleman, doug davis, grabow, rodrigo lopez, koyie hill, campana, reed johnson, montanez and fernando perez. teams with real 40-man roster crunches are teams that are deep in talent at the upper minors and major league level. the cubs don't have that problem.

[Little Slide Rooter]

There are a lot of guys on that list I wouldn't want to lose, but with the possible exceptions of the ones you guys mentioned, there aren't many that I could see a team taking and keeping on their big league roster, the possible exception being Jay Jackson.Maybe some of the older guys, but if some team wants Marquez Smith, Ty Wright, or Blake Lalli, more power to them. If Matt Spencer and Rebel Ridling keep slugging in AA, someone might at least take them and give them a chance. Marwin Gonzalez is one that someone could pluck and keep on as a utility MI. Hes probably more likely to stick on a roster than Vitters, although a small market nothing to lose team could hide Vitters at the end of their bench. Junior Lake is probably far to raw to even make it on anyones radar. I wont mention Flaherty, because hes likely to be on the 2012 team if nothing else as a supersub. Belevieu might be to. Cant be worse than Grabow. Szczur of course you protect. Probably not ready to hit in the bigs, but he could provide speed and a 5th outfielder to a team.

[davell]

I'd definitely keep Jay Jackson. To me, he's the guy we'd regret leaving off. I know he's struggled the last year and all, but I still think he's got mid rotation or setup type potential. Just have to get him back on track somehow. With Carpenter getting a promotion the way he did though, I think this one will take care of itself and we'll see him get an audition later on this season anyway, deserving or not.

[scarey]

I see 10-12 able to come off the 40 man roster without any problem. There's probably 3 or 4 more that could get traded at the deadline. Then we have a handful of free agents (Kosuke, Aramis, Pena, Grabow, Samardzija), some of which are included in the likely to be traded category. Factor in any free agents the Cubs will sign, and I think we're likely to see at least 8-10 of these guys put on the 40 man roster.

 

Almost certainly added to the 40

Jeff Beliveau, LHP

Steve Clevenger, C-1B

Ryan Flaherty, IF-OF

Matt Szczur, OF

Josh Vitters, 3B-1B

Dae-Eun Rhee, RHP

 

Likely to be added to the 40

Marwin Gonzalez, IF-OF

Junior Lake, INF

Jay Jackson, P

 

Possibly could be added to the 40

Nelson Perez, OF

Rebel Ridling, 1B

Marquez Smith, 3B

Matt Spencer, 1B-OF

[Little Slide Rooter]

And a few other guys who we could take off the 40 man in the offseason without losing any sleep are Justin Berg, Doug Davis, Rodrigo Lopez, Koyie Hill, Fernando Perez, and Esmailen Caridad. Maybe Casey Coleman, Kyle Smit, and Marcus Mateo. Also, we have to add back Cashner, Gooz, and any offseason aquisitions, hopefully Pujols or Fielder among them.

[Little Slide Rooter]

I see 10-12 able to come off the 40 man roster without any problem. There's probably 3 or 4 more that could get traded at the deadline. Then we have a handful of free agents (Kosuke, Aramis, Pena, Grabow, Samardzija), some of which are included in the likely to be traded category. Factor in any free agents the Cubs will sign, and I think we're likely to see at least 8-10 of these guys put on the 40 man roster.

 

Almost certainly added to the 40

Jeff Beliveau, LHP

Steve Clevenger, C-1B

Ryan Flaherty, IF-OF

Matt Szczur, OF

Josh Vitters, 3B-1B

Dae-Eun Rhee, RHP

 

Likely to be added to the 40

Marwin Gonzalez, IF-OF

Junior Lake, INF

Jay Jackson, P

 

Possibly could be added to the 40

Nelson Perez, OF

Rebel Ridling, 1B

Marquez Smith, 3B

Matt Spencer, 1B-OF

 

I wouldnt expect Rhee or Lake to be added. Too young and unpolished for a team to consider, snd even if they did, they probably wouldnt make it out of spring training. As for Marquez Smith, we didnt protect him last year when he was a year younger and coming off a better season than hes having so far. If someone wants him they can have him. We have enough depth in the utility 2B/3B department.

[rawaction]

Agree on Rhee and Lake being too raw. I'd take my chances that nobody would bite, and if they did either would be sent back at some point early in the year.

 

If Jackson doesn't get a callup sometime in the next month or so, I think we can determine that he isn't going to be protected.

[SouthSideRyan]

I wouldn't be surprised to see Clevenger left off.

[craig]

Got this from Arizona Phil:

 

ELIGIBLE FOR SELECTION IN DECEMBER 2011 RULE 5 DRAFT:

 

Kyler Burke, LHP (ex-OF)

 

Luis Flores, C

 

Marcus Hatley, RHP

Jay Jackson, RHP

Junior Lake, INF

Blake Lalli, C-1B

 

Rebel Ridling, 1B

Carlos Romero, C

Nate Samson, INF

Ryan Searle, RHP

Marquez Smith, 3B

Matt Spencer, 1B-OF

Larry Suarez, RHP

Matt Szczur, OF

Jose Tineo, RHP

Jose Valdez, OF

Josh Vitters, 3B-1B

Ty Wright, OF

 

At this point, I'd add Jeff Beliveau, Steve Clevenger (and say bye to Koyie Hill), Ryan Flaherty, Marwin Gonzalez, Matt Szczur and Josh Vitters. Obviously, this could change as players emerge the rest of the season.

 

That looks like a good selection, cal. As mentioned by others, plenty of candidates on the 40-man to get derostered, so I don't see much problem. Flaherty, Szczur, Vitters, and Beliveau seem like the only sure things. But hopefully Clevenger's defense is good enough to make him worthwhile and Marwin.

 

I suppose you never know. If they've got easy roster space, and if Lake finished well, maybe. Sometimes good-arm pitchers are surprise roster choices. Smit last year. Mateo a few years back. So it wouldn't be beyond possible that somebody like Hatley might pop in, or even Burke if he was a lefty and was throwing 95 with a promising breaking ball for two months.

[jersey cubs fan]

The 40-man roster crunch is one place where the depth over quality gameplan can really bite you. If you have a whole bunch of okay players they better become useful very quickly or else you'll just have to let them go.

[CubColtPacer]

The 40-man roster crunch is one place where the depth over quality gameplan can really bite you. If you have a whole bunch of okay players they better become useful very quickly or else you'll just have to let them go.

 

Yup. That's a big reason why the Cubs have to continue to pursue trades like the one they did for Garza (on a smaller scale). The depth gets squeezed the closer it gets to the majors. If you don't make moves to constantly be removing the depth, you'll have people either being lost because of 40 man concerns or languishing in AAA and losing any value. IMO that's the proper way to be using a system that is better with depth than quality.

[Little Slide Rooter]

The only way that a system based on depth is going to work is if you go out and sign or trade for the quality players, which is what we need do if we are going to be successful.

[Scotti]

Agree on Rhee and Lake being too raw. I'd take my chances that nobody would bite, and if they did either would be sent back at some point early in the year.

 

The problem with the "but if they do get taken they'll likely get sent back" is that, for the most part, the guys that you get back are the guys that you don't want and the guys you don't get back are the only guys you'd really miss.

 

I.e. "Oh, PITT is sending Lake back, they've decided he's crap" vs. "Oh, crap. Look at what Lake is doing for PITT."

[Brett]

The only way that a system based on depth is going to work is if you go out and sign or trade for the quality players, which is what we need do if we are going to be successful.

 

It seems like that's exactly what the Cubs try to do... they're just not very good at it.

[SouthSideRyan]

Agree on Rhee and Lake being too raw. I'd take my chances that nobody would bite, and if they did either would be sent back at some point early in the year.

 

The problem with the "but if they do get taken they'll likely get sent back" is that, for the most part, the guys that you get back are the guys that you don't want and the guys you don't get back are the only guys you'd really miss.

 

I.e. "Oh, PITT is sending Lake back, they've decided he's crap" vs. "Oh, crap. Look at what Lake is doing for PITT."

 

The Cubs recent history says otherwise.

 

We've drafted and kept:

 

Mike Parisi

David Patton

Juan Mateo

Scott Chiasson (partially via the Hinske trade)

 

Drafted and returned:

 

Tim Lahey

 

Had drafted and lost:

 

Donnie Veal

Jason Smith

Andy Sisco

Luke Hagerty

Jason Szuminski

Bo Porter

 

Had drafted and returned:

 

Randy Wells

Lincoln Holdzkom

Jason Dubois

[Little Slide Rooter]

You just made be BBR Andy Sisco, and hes apparently pitching for the Yankees AAA team with a 1.88 ERA. Cant believe hes only 28.

 

ETA: Make that WAS. Hes not on their current roster.

[NCCubFan]

Had drafted and lost:

 

Luke Hagerty

Hagerty was returned.

[Little Slide Rooter]

I copied this list from the 2012 Rule 5 thread. I figure at this point, there are different priorities than there were this time last year. I've underlined the must keeps, and bolded other guys I'd like to keep. It's a tough call with Rhee and Lake, as both are so young, but I'd just as soon not risk them. I've crossed out guys who no longer belong on the list for one reason or another.

 

Jeffry Antigua

Jeff Beliveau

Michael Brenly

Justin Bristow

Kyler Burke

David Cales

Tony Campana-big league

Chris Carpenter-big league

Ryan Flaherty

Marwin Gonzalez

Jay Jackson

Junior Lake

Craig Muschko

Blake Parker

Dae Eun Rhee

Rebel Ridling

Aaron Shafer-gone

Marquez Smith

Luke Sommer

Matt Spencer

Tony Thomas-traded

Josh Vitters

Ty Wright

 

Isn't Szczur also need to be added to the 40 man do to the weirdness in his revised contract?

 

Of the remaining guys, Blake Parker and Marquez Smith are the only 2 I could see another team taking a chance on, although nobody pulled Smith last year when he was younger and coming off a better season. Maybe someone could take a flier out on Matt Spencer or Ty Wright.

 

As for the 40 man roster, there are currently 2 open spots, andspots that should be opening up are:

 

Lou Montanez

Reed Johnson

Koyie Hill

Rodrigo Lopez

Ramon Ortiz

John Grabow

Kerry Wood(unless re signed for cheap)

Also, theres the Big situation, however that unfolds.

 

A few others that could be opened up without losing too much sleep over losing the players are:

John Maine

Kyle Smit

Justin Berg

Esmailen Caridad

 

take away 1 spot for adding Cashner back off the 60 day DL.

[toonsterwu]

I think Rhee has to be a definite protect. He's working deep into games, his stuff is showing well. This is the type of arm that some team may say, okay, we can stash him in long relief for a year and then send him back to the minors for work.

 

Let's see, for me, guys that I think

 

should definitely be protected

 

Matt Szczur

Josh Vitters

Dae-Eun Rhee

 

Actually, that's it. Those are the three guys I think should definitely be protected.

 

I'd like to protect a few more, but realistically, the chances of protecting more than, say, 8 guys, seems fairly slim. Keep in mind that BJax will take a spot on the 40. If I had to pick a next 4, it'd be

 

1. Ryan Flaherty - With Baker likely moving on soon, if Flaherty can't start at a position, he'll fill a super-util/guy with some pop off the bench role.

2. Jeffry Antigua - He'd get my nod over Beliveau as he's got a legitimate chance to be a starting lefty.

3. Steve Clevenger - At some point, we're going to move on from Koyie, and Clevenger/Castillo can battle it out for the backup job, with the loser going to AAA.

4. Jeff Beliveau - He's not higher on the list for one simple reason - there isn't a pressing need for him. Look, he'll, in all likelihood, be protected, but with so many lefties in the upper levels, I just wouldn't put this as a higher priority than the other 3 in this tier.

 

Some other names:

 

Marwin Gonzalez - I've always been fascinated with him, but with Barney capable of filling the backup shortstop role, and LeMahieu/Flaherty are more useful supersub types as of now. Marwin needs more time. I'm not sold that he'd definitely been picked. We've seen semi-intriguing up-the-middle guys get passed over (Diory Hernandez comes to mind).

 

Marcus Hatley - This would be my sleeper guess if I had to pick a guy off the radar that the Cubs might protect. His arm is strong, and he's got late inning potential.

 

Jay Jackson - Do I want to protect him? Sure. That said, while there's been some bad luck, his inconsistent breaking ball makes this a tough move to make. If there's the spot, sure.

 

Junior Lake - Wouldn't surprise me if the Cubs protected him as the talent is tantalizing. Still ... unlikely to be a pressing priority due to his struggles. He has improved this year, though.

 

Rebel Ridling - Doesn't seem like the type of guy that gets picked.

 

Ryan Searle - Hard to see anyone picking him, but if they do, best wishes.

[Guest]

I think Rhee has to be a definite protect. He's working deep into games, his stuff is showing well. This is the type of arm that some team may say, okay, we can stash him in long relief for a year and then send him back to the minors for work.

 

Let's see, for me, guys that I think

 

should definitely be protected

 

Matt Szczur

Josh Vitters

Dae-Eun Rhee

 

Actually, that's it. Those are the three guys I think should definitely be protected.

 

I'd like to protect a few more, but realistically, the chances of protecting more than, say, 8 guys, seems fairly slim. Keep in mind that BJax will take a spot on the 40. If I had to pick a next 4, it'd be

 

1. Ryan Flaherty - With Baker likely moving on soon, if Flaherty can't start at a position, he'll fill a super-util/guy with some pop off the bench role.

2. Jeffry Antigua - He'd get my nod over Beliveau as he's got a legitimate chance to be a starting lefty.

3. Steve Clevenger - At some point, we're going to move on from Koyie, and Clevenger/Castillo can battle it out for the backup job, with the loser going to AAA.

4. Jeff Beliveau - He's not higher on the list for one simple reason - there isn't a pressing need for him. Look, he'll, in all likelihood, be protected, but with so many lefties in the upper levels, I just wouldn't put this as a higher priority than the other 3 in this tier.

 

Some other names:

 

Marwin Gonzalez - I've always been fascinated with him, but with Barney capable of filling the backup shortstop role, and LeMahieu/Flaherty are more useful supersub types as of now. Marwin needs more time. I'm not sold that he'd definitely been picked. We've seen semi-intriguing up-the-middle guys get passed over (Diory Hernandez comes to mind).

 

Marcus Hatley - This would be my sleeper guess if I had to pick a guy off the radar that the Cubs might protect. His arm is strong, and he's got late inning potential.

 

Jay Jackson - Do I want to protect him? Sure. That said, while there's been some bad luck, his inconsistent breaking ball makes this a tough move to make. If there's the spot, sure.

 

Junior Lake - Wouldn't surprise me if the Cubs protected him as the talent is tantalizing. Still ... unlikely to be a pressing priority due to his struggles. He has improved this year, though.

 

Rebel Ridling - Doesn't seem like the type of guy that gets picked.

 

Ryan Searle - Hard to see anyone picking him, but if they do, best wishes.

 

Funny how I didn't think Rhee was necessary to protect 2 months ago and now I agree that he must be protected.

 

One additional name for the Some Other Names section would be Larry Suarez.

[scarey]

I see 10-12 able to come off the 40 man roster without any problem. There's probably 3 or 4 more that could get traded at the deadline. Then we have a handful of free agents (Kosuke, Aramis, Pena, Grabow, Samardzija), some of which are included in the likely to be traded category. Factor in any free agents the Cubs will sign, and I think we're likely to see at least 8-10 of these guys put on the 40 man roster.

 

Almost certainly added to the 40

Jeff Beliveau, LHP

Steve Clevenger, C-1B

Ryan Flaherty, IF-OF

Matt Szczur, OF

Josh Vitters, 3B-1B

Dae-Eun Rhee, RHP

 

Likely to be added to the 40

Marwin Gonzalez, IF-OF

Junior Lake, INF

Jay Jackson, P

 

Possibly could be added to the 40

Nelson Perez, OF

Rebel Ridling, 1B

Marquez Smith, 3B

Matt Spencer, 1B-OF

 

The only changes I would make is dropping Jackson off the likely heading and making Marwin more of a priority. I wouldn't sweat any of the guys on the possible heading getting picked at all.

[Little Slide Rooter]

To be honest, I don't know how much of a must Steve Clevenger really is. Assuming that Geo is around for several years to come, Castillo can be the backup, and, Mike Brenley and Chris Robinson can have Iowa and Micah Gibbs Tennessee and see what happens with some of the catching prospects we drafted this year. Luis Flores was looking pretty good too until his little incident. The only way I'd put Clevenger as a must is if we were to trade Castillo.

[toonsterwu]

I don't think Clevenger is a "must", but he should be near the top of the priority list for the 2nd tier if Koyie Hill is let go. The only way he wouldn't be there is if the organization added another veteran catcher. Otherwise, we need 3 catchers on the 40, and I don't really want Chris Robinson/Michael Brenly/Micah Gibbs on there unless it's an emergency. I'm ambivalent towards Luis Flores on the 40. Don't really want it, but he's more intriguing than those three.

 

Don't think Brenly should be in Iowa. At best, Tennessee. Wouldn't surprise me if they kept him in Daytona and went and find a minor league vet to slide into AA with Flores. Don't think Gibbs should be in Tennessee early in 2012 either.