Starting a Fire Sale

[Little Slide Rooter]

Assuming the fire sale were to start today, where would be the best fits for some of our guys? Obviously, Lou should be the first to go, but where to go from there?

 

Derrek Lee: Obviously, he has the NTC, but if he knows he wont be back next year, hes likely waive it for a contneder. Most contenders have a starting 1B, but this year, there are 3 in the AL West that coukd use him. Value: 2-3 decent prospects

Angels: In a move that makes Ryan Dempsters rail hopping injury look like brilliance, there starting 1B broke his leg celebrating. Now they are in big need.

Rangers: Justin Smoak seems to be improving, but is he really starter on a contender just yet?

A's: even if the A's really do see themselves as contenders rather than pretenders, would Billie Beane be willing to spend?

 

Ted Lilly: Pretty much any contending team could use a front end starter like Lilly. However, one team that really stands out as a team who could be 1 quality starter away from running away with their sicky division is the Twins. Of course he has that NTC, and may not want to return to the AL. Still, theres the Giants, Dodgers, Braves, Phillies, and even Dusty Bakers Reds who would love to have Lilly aboard. We could probably get the best trade value of all for Lilly.

 

Maybe they want to get gutsy and try to move Kosuke and give Colvin RF. We could really use his 2011 salary off the books, especially considering that I see it as a rebuilding year, possibly 2006 caliber.

 

Other bits and pieces we could move: Jeff Baker: a utility man with a bit of pop in his bat. Xavier Nady: Probably more a guy who could gain interest around the waiver deadline. Everyone can use a spare bat, especially when roster expansion time rolls around Tom Gorzalanny: We could slide him back in the rotation if Lilly is traded, but would it be wiser to give the spot to Cashner, Jackson, or Diamond? Gorz could interst some teams looking for a back of the rotation starter. Ryan Theriot: Maybe we keep Baker around and try to move Theriot. John Grabow: wishful thinking. Stupid Hendry.

 

And any chance of a Carlos Zambrano for Jake Peavy trade? 2 woukld be aces who could use a change of scenery. Z has a good relationhip with Ozzie, and Peavy prefers the NL and the Cubs were 1 of his top choices.

[dew1679666265]

Tom Gorzalanny: We could slide him back in the rotation if Lilly is traded, but would it be wiser to give the spot to Cashner, Jackson, or Diamond? Gorz could interst some teams looking for a back of the rotation starter.

 

I don't see any need to trade Gorz. He's been very productive for nearly a full season, has very good minor league numbers and is cheap. He's exactly the type of player we need to keep around.

 

And any chance of a Carlos Zambrano for Jake Peavy trade? 2 woukld be aces who could use a change of scenery. Z has a good relationhip with Ozzie, and Peavy prefers the NL and the Cubs were 1 of his top choices.

 

I'd much rather keep Z than deal him for Peavy. Z has been much, much better than Peavy in a starting role this year and is younger.

 

As for Lee, I'd keep him around til closer to the deadline and see if he can hit a hot streak. If he can, the Angels may get more interest and we could get a better return on him. I'd have to think just about any team out there would be very interested in Lilly and by the deadline, there may be some legit interest in Silva if he can keep this up.

[LeftCoastCubFan]

It won't be much of a fire sale.

 

None of the AL west teams are going to take on the full 8 mil due Lee. He's also not a very good hitter right now. Unless he's on fire, we won't receive anything significant back. He won't be offered arbitration, so no draft picks. He's not blocking a prospect at first, so it really won't make much difference either way.

 

Lilly will likely be offered arbitration if he isn't extended, so a trade only makes sense if it nets significant prospects.

 

Fukodome, Zambrano, Soriano, and Silva are immovable due to contracts. In the offseason Fukodome and Silva could be moved in the offseason eating significant salary (or absorbing one), if they perform in the second half.

 

Unless Ramirez has a monster second half he's not opting out after the year.

 

We also don't know that money saved this year will go to next year's players expenses. I doubt it will as the payroll is higher than the Rickets would like this year.

 

So no extra money and marginal prospect upgrades says to me that it doesn't really matter. I would say let it ride. Piniella is already likely gone. Missing the playoffs should also send Hendry packing. Let the next GM decide what to do to improve.

[Banedon]

The term "fire sale" is WAY overused in baseball.

[daske17]

Oh my God! We're having a fire! sale.

[HossmanGT]

Agree on the immovable contracts, with the exception of Silva. If he keeps pitching well as we approach the trade deadline somebody will be willing to trade for him. If I'm not mistaken, we owe him $8M next season which some team could stomach for a guy that could help a rotation down the stretch.

[Schwarber Fan]

I'd bet the farm Silva isn't traded... Hendry won't want his fleecing of the M's for Bradley to be forgotten.

[XZero771679666304]

It wouldn't be much of a fire sale, more like getting something for players you won't retain anyway while there's a market. The Cubs would probably need to eat some of Derrek's remaining salary, but getting something for him would be a plus. Finding a taker for Lilly would be easy. Nady could net something. No one would want him, but getting something for Theriot would be nice.

 

Soriano, Ramirez and Z aren't going anywhere, because they are nigh immovable. I guess I'd keep Soto, Marmol, Cashner, Colvin, Castro, Gorzelanny, Marshall, Byrd and see what we could get for any of the remainder.

[imb]

Oh my God! We're having a fire! sale.

 

"Would you like to try that again?"

[kroth1342]

I'd bet the farm Silva isn't traded... Hendry isn't smart enough to capitalize on his great fortune in acquiring Silva.

 

Corrected.

[haubrich91]

I believe we'll trade one of our veterans, just not sure which one. It'll be an interesting summer to see what moves are made to this disastrous team.

[questionmarkgrace]

Unfortunately Hendry is so dumb that he wont trade anyone at the trade deadline. And will instead suggest that we are still in the race if only to continue to fill seats for Ricketts.

 

God I love the way this team operates.

[illiniguy]

I bet we trade Soto. Hendry's final going away gift.

[muntjack]

Funny thing about this season, I think we could have a fire sale while arguably improving the team THIS season as well. Hard to say what some of the younger guys would do but this doesn't look so bad to me:

 

Dempster

Zambrano

Gorzellany

Cashner

Jackson

 

Wells

Stevens

Howry

Russell

Marshall

Marmol

 

Fontenot/Baker 2B

Castro SS

Byrd CF

Colvin RF

Soto C

Nady 1B

Soriano LF

Tracy/Aramis 3B

 

We'd be getting rid of Lee, Fukudome, Lilly and Silva, quite possibly adding some decent pieces to the farm and adding a lot of flexibility next year.

[Soul]

Dieser gruppe ist der scheissdreck.

 

 

I struggle to think of players who I wouldn't be happy to see traded.

[KingKongvs.Godzilla]

Sell high on Marmol to a contender.

[wastra]

I've already pretty much given up on this season, it's been beyond frustrating. Jim Hendry is the absolute king of doing the same thing year-in and year-out and expecting different results.

 

How many times does Ramirez have to spend a 3 weeks on the DL before we realize he's not reliable? How many times does D.Lee have to stink it up for the first two months of the season before we realize his end-of-the-season numbers were accumulated after we were out of the race? How long do we go with a patchwork bullpen? But, hey! Howry was a failure last time he was here, I'm sure it'll be different this time. And I bet THIS is finally the year Zambrano puts it all together.

 

 

The only people on this team I'm particularly interested in seeing back for the second half are Castro, Colvin, Cashner, and...umm...yeah. Byrd would be fine, but I don't particularly care either way.

 

This team has to start over. Hendry HAS to realize the core of this team is just flawed. It's just NOT VERY GOOD. He's got to find a way to change the core of the team...NOT the reclamation guys on one-year deals.

[dew1679666265]

How many times does D.Lee have to stink it up for the first two months of the season before we realize his end-of-the-season numbers were accumulated after we were out of the race?

 

We were very much in the race last season well into July and August and DLee's OPS' by month were:

 

May: .955

June: .973

July: 1.028

Aug: 1.014

 

April was his only bad month and he was very good pretty much the entire time we were in the race.

[Backtobanks]

I've already pretty much given up on this season, it's been beyond frustrating. Jim Hendry is the absolute king of doing the same thing year-in and year-out and expecting different results.

 

How many times does Ramirez have to spend a 3 weeks on the DL before we realize he's not reliable? How many times does D.Lee have to stink it up for the first two months of the season before we realize his end-of-the-season numbers were accumulated after we were out of the race? How long do we go with a patchwork bullpen? But, hey! Howry was a failure last time he was here, I'm sure it'll be different this time. And I bet THIS is finally the year Zambrano puts it all together.

 

 

The only people on this team I'm particularly interested in seeing back for the second half are Castro, Colvin, Cashner, and...umm...yeah. Byrd would be fine, but I don't particularly care either way.

 

This team has to start over. Hendry HAS to realize the core of this team is just flawed. It's just NOT VERY GOOD. He's got to find a way to change the core of the team...NOT the reclamation guys on one-year deals.

 

The problem is you can't change the core of the team because of expensive and/or no-trade contracts. Another problem is that I can't believe Ricketts wants to go into a rebuilding mode after paying a ton of money for the team. A fire sale would involve eating hundreds of millions of dollars in contracts and probably getting back mediocre prospects or getting back other bad-contract players.

[jersey cubs fan]

How many times does Ramirez have to spend a 3 weeks on the DL before we realize he's not reliable?

 

Ramirez has been the most reliable Cub for 7 years.

[RegulusBlue]

 

Ramirez has been the most reliable Cub for 7 years.

 

Technically, he still is. He's just reliable for something else now.

 

Anywho, here's a list of players we should shop:

 

Byrd- Having a great year, relatively cheap, sell high type. Some AAA guy can play OF in this lost year.

 

Silva- Money or no, pitchers having great years are all the rage at the deadline. You dump this guy on ANYONE. Free's up tons of money next year, and we get a youngin', too.

 

Fuku- Contract isn't bad, someone will take him, and we'd have to resign him soon anyhow. I like more draft picks, but this team needs sooner aid than the five-year plan, IMO. Get a AA/AAA guy for him to help in 1-2 years.

 

Lilly- Hugely hot property right now, but has that dang NTC. Its pretty easy to get a fiery guy to want to leave town, I'd think.

 

THERIOT- So, I despise this guy anyhow, but he's a gamer, bro. I swear you can tack Theriot to Silva and some reliever nobody for an Alex Gordon type to solve our 3B woes.

 

Chump edit:

 

Fontenot and Baker could sweeten the pot for a deal, as well. Fonty particularly is having a good year.

 

Trade them all! Start over!

[dew1679666265]

Anywho, here's a list of players we should shop:

 

Byrd- Having a great year, relatively cheap, sell high type. Some AAA guy can play OF in this lost year.

 

I'd keep Byrd for now. Obviously, if you get bowled over in a deal you make the trade, but he's in the first year of a three-year deal and shouldn't be overpaid by much, if any, at any point in the deal (max base salary is $6.5 in 2012).

 

He seems to work well with Jaramillo and could be consistent production for us at a relatively cheap price – especially since we don't have a large number of outfielders in the minors he's blocking.

[UK1679666180]

Anywho, here's a list of players we should shop:

 

Byrd- Having a great year, relatively cheap, sell high type. Some AAA guy can play OF in this lost year.

 

I'd keep Byrd for now. Obviously, if you get bowled over in a deal you make the trade, but he's in the first year of a three-year deal and shouldn't be overpaid by much, if any, at any point in the deal (max base salary is $6.5 in 2012).

 

He seems to work well with Jaramillo and could be consistent production for us at a relatively cheap price – especially since we don't have a large number of outfielders in the minors he's blocking.

 

I wouldn't shop Byrd either at this point as you mentioned, his contract length nor salary are going to hurt the Cubs chances down the road.

 

I would shop Fukudome, Lilly, and Lee (despite his likely refusal) and go from there.

[A-Cal]

I think Theriot may find his way to the Mets or Twins, but more likely the Mets. I have no idea where Lilly goes, but he is definitely gone. Other than that, I don't think there will be much activity. I do hope I am wrong though.

 

I also love how Fukudome can block a trade to half the freaking league. I am trying to think of a contract swap for him, but I am coming up empty thus far.

[UK1679666180]

I think Theriot may find his way to the Mets or Twins, but more likely the Mets. I have no idea where Lilly goes, but he is definitely gone. Other than that, I don't think there will be much activity. I do hope I am wrong though.

 

I also love how Fukudome can block a trade to half the freaking league. I am trying to think of a contract swap for him, but I am coming up empty thus far.

 

Why would have to be a contract swap for Fukudome? Given the escalated contracts, his production, and ability to play CF, I don't see why the Cubs would have to trade contracts as it would likely defeat the purpose of trading him which would be to clear payroll and obtain younger players.