5/2 Post-Game: Soriano is Hot

[BCVM22]

Ive never seen a player who goes by such extremes as Fonz. KInd of like Super Mario when he gets ahold of his mushroom.

 

http://i141.photobucket.com/albums/r71/bcvm22/sigzeon/3Dsorismall.png

[chuckywang]

Cubs have 3 of the top 10 OPS leaders in the NL - Fukudome, Soriano, Byrd.

 

 

I don't understand how a team with such good hitting and starting pitching can be sub .500.

[Cubswin11]

Cubs have 3 of the top 10 OPS leaders in the NL - Fukudome, Soriano, Byrd.

 

 

I don't understand how a team with such good hitting and starting pitching can be sub .500.

It is somewhat baffling. The explanation seems to be the [expletive] bullpen and the offense hitting/producing in streaks* and not being consistent. The defense has also been suspect at times.

 

 

*In the 10 games we have scored 3 or less the record is 1-9 record. The rest (4 or more runs) with a record of 12-4. So roughly 1/3 of our games the offense has been bad the rest it has been ok to great. Also the poor record in the low scoring games can be indicative of the bullpen not being able to hold leads or keep a game tied.

[Cubs Fan Dan]

Cubs have 3 of the top 10 OPS leaders in the NL - Fukudome, Soriano, Byrd.

 

 

I don't understand how a team with such good hitting and starting pitching can be sub .500.

It is somewhat baffling. The explanation seems to be the [expletive] bullpen and the offense hitting/producing in streaks* and not being consistent. The defense has also been suspect at times.

 

 

*In the 10 games we have scored 3 or less the record is 1-9 record. The rest (4 or more runs) with a record of 12-4. So roughly 1/3 of our games the offense has been bad the rest it has been ok to great. Also the poor record in the low scoring games can be indicative of the bullpen not being able to hold leads or keep a game tied.

 

I think ARam and Lee will help stabilize that somewhat, with some obvious drop in numbers from others. But all in all it is extremely encouraging that average/bad pitchers will get destroyed vs. this lineup. This could definitely be the start of an awesome summer.

[Tracer Bullet]

i would be so over cubs fans if i were him right now, though.

 

why? he gets paid and assload and hasn't come close to living up to it. I don't fault him for signing that contract. But when you do, you better understand the expectations that come with it. I don't want to hear you complain about the boos when you turn in a sub-.800 OPS, injury or not. Comes with the territory.

 

why boo him for not meeting unreasonable expectations? what was he supposed to do? "thanks for the 136 mil offer jim, but i don't think i could possible be good enough to make that contract good. i'd prefer you make me a lower offer"

 

Soriano career- .279/.327/.511

Soriano w/ Cubs- .276/.330/.512

 

And those Cubs numbers are brought down heavily by a season in which he was hurt.... an injury that is looking more and more likely to have caused his poor performance.

 

Soriano has been very good in his time with the Cubs. He's done as much as you could have reasonably expected/hoped for when he signed the contrct.

 

Booing him because he took a big contract is pretty stupid to me. Yeah it "comes with the territory" and it's hard to feel bad about a guy getting booed when he's making that much money, but what does that have to do with it?

 

Just because you have a right to boo doesn't make it any less meatballish. You have the right to heckle players too, but that doesn't mean you aren't obnoxious when you do it.

 

first of all - I don't boo him. I've never booed a cubs player or any player on one of my favorite teams. so it's not a personal thing for me. I just think there are certain expectations that come with signing a huge contract like that. what does the money have to do with it? the money they're paying Soriano can't go to fix any number of other issues with the team. People are going to boo Soriano b/c they can and he tends to give them ample opportunity (bone head plays and he's a streaky player so he'll go on long stretches of suck). People at Wrigley can't really boo Hendry as easily, so they boo the guy that's available - and that's Soriano. It comes with signing a fat contract, especially for a team like the Cubs.

 

Fans are going to boo. Soriano isn't a rookie. It's not like he didn't know anything about Chicago (or couldn't easily find out). Are they obnoxious when they boo and heckle? sure. But it's a bunch of guys hanging out with their buddies and getting drunk in the sun. I'm sure you're all at your most rational under those circumstances.

 

People boo. Get over it. Doubly so for players. If you don't want to be booed, go play for the Royals.

[Tracer Bullet]

btw - this is all hypothetical. I haven't seen anything about Soriano bitching about the booing.

[Magnetic Curses]

oh great now everyone is using the term "meatball"

 

sorry if you're upset with me using one of your cool words you think is original. how about we make deal where i don't use "meatball", and you don't use "awesome". that's my word and i'm afraid of it catching on.

I think meatball was a Sulley creation, but I could be wrong.

Boers & Bernstein have been using that term for years, but I couldn't tell you whether it started here first.

 

this is correct, but i was the one who brought it to this board.

[UMFan83]

Cubs have 3 of the top 10 OPS leaders in the NL - Fukudome, Soriano, Byrd.

 

 

I don't understand how a team with such good hitting and starting pitching can be sub .500.

 

They aren't though. They are at .500 :)

 

Also, consider the somewhat easy schedule we've had so far. Atlanta, Cincinnati, Milwaukee, Houston, New York, Milwaukee, Washington, Arizona is not exactly a murder's row of teams. We should be at least a couple games over .500 if we are any good. That said, we've had issues with streaky hitting and especially the pen, which is why we are .500 despite great starting pitching and a decent offense.

 

As much as I want to feel optimistic about the Cubs, I just can't with this bullpen. Z isn't gonna be in the pen forever (I can't believe I'm saying that), and there is literally no option besides maybe Marshall that I'd feel even slightly comfortable pitching the 8th inning of a tight game. The crazy thing is, we have barely had any situations where we needed an 8th inning guy pitching with a 1-2 run lead. We've only won 4 games decided within 2 runs this year, and 1 of them we took the lead in the bottom of the 8th, and another we won in extras. Once we aren't playing the Arizonas or Milwaukees of the world, I would expect a lot more tight games.

[evv98]

Soriano is on pace for 40 HR and 113 RBIs ha.

 

You know whats funny though:

 

Through 80 ABs...

2009: .313/.396/.650/1.046, 10 BB, 6 2B, 7 HR, 14 RBI

2010: .325/.382/.675/1.057, 8 BB, 8 2B, 6 HR, 17 RBI

 

Very similar starts. Hopefully this year he can stay healthy, so that he doesn't go on a season long slump from June on. Obviously Soriano is not going to change. He will come off this hot streak, and fade into a really frustrating cold spell. The hope for Soriano is that he can limit the length of that cold spell and play well enough to have good numbers at the end of the season.

 

I was thinking the same thing as I watched the game yesterday. I remember a talking head (I can't remember who) referring to Soriano as an early season MVP candidate after one of his hot streaks early last year. He then proceeded to bat about .100 with no homeruns over the next six months (only a slight exaggeration).

 

I hope he can keep it up, or at least not go into the tank for extended periods. The Cubs need good Soriano to have much hope of getting into the playoffs.

[Fred Hornkohl]

If we could just play Milwaukee or Arizona all the time................

 

04/05 - 05/02      AB    R    H   2b   3b   HR  RBI   BB   SO     BA    OBP    SLG    OPS  BABIP  P/PA     RC   IsoD   RBI%
vs. Milw          220   47   76   15    1   13   46   22   43  0.345  0.402  0.600  1.002  0.384  3.87   53.1  0.057  0.270
vs. Ariz          136   33   46    6    0    9   33   14   18  0.338  0.403  0.581  0.983  0.339  3.80   31.8  0.064  0.289
vs. Mets          138   12   36    6    1    1   12   21   35  0.261  0.358  0.341  0.699  0.343  4.04   16.8  0.097  0.112
vs. Houst         104   12   27    9    1    1   12    6   20  0.260  0.297  0.394  0.692  0.313  4.00   12.2  0.038  0.216
vs. Wash          100    7   24    3    2    0    7   14   11  0.240  0.330  0.310  0.640  0.270  3.55   10.2  0.090  0.115
vs. Atla           91    9   16    2    0    4    8    9   23  0.176  0.248  0.330  0.577  0.188  3.90    7.4  0.072  0.121

All teams         886  129  246   42    5   32  127   97  174  0.278  0.350  0.445  0.794  0.315  3.87  137.8  0.072  0.190

[Schwarber Fan]

Ive never seen a player who goes by such extremes as Fonz. KInd of like Super Mario when he gets ahold of his mushroom.

 

http://i141.photobucket.com/albums/r71/bcvm22/sigzeon/3Dsorismall.png

 

http://i10.photobucket.com/albums/a115/mikeak21/mariocubssmall.jpg

[erik316wttn]

Cubs have 3 of the top 10 OPS leaders in the NL - Fukudome, Soriano, Byrd.

 

 

I don't understand how a team with such good hitting and starting pitching can be sub .500.

 

That good hitting goes away mysteriously when there are RISP. And the bullpen is bad enough to negate the good starting pitching.

[Guest]

Cubs have 3 of the top 10 OPS leaders in the NL - Fukudome, Soriano, Byrd.

 

 

I don't understand how a team with such good hitting and starting pitching can be sub .500.

 

That good hitting goes away mysteriously when there are RISP. And the bullpen is bad enough to negate the good starting pitching.

This has been shown false about 75 times on the forum, but I'll throw the updated numbers out there:

Overall:      .278/.350/.445/.794
RISP:         .258/.342/.444/.786
RISP, 2 out:  .250/.339/.482/.821
bases loaded: .290/.333/.419/.753

Oddly enough, the scoring spree against AZ has created a gap. That's the biggest difference there's been all year and it's pretty much only batting average that's different.

[shnsajax]

Cubs have 3 of the top 10 OPS leaders in the NL - Fukudome, Soriano, Byrd.

 

 

I don't understand how a team with such good hitting and starting pitching can be sub .500.

 

That good hitting goes away mysteriously when there are RISP. And the bullpen is bad enough to negate the good starting pitching.

 

By simply sending Shark to the minors this team is automatically better by 5+ games. I am absolutely loving what Geo has done so far to start the season.

[squally1313]

Back to Soriano for a quick second, if you look at his fangraphs page, all he has to do is meet his rest of the season ZiPS projections for the rest of the year (275/334/513/847) to finish with a line of 283/342/540/882, which would be his highest OPS since his first year with the Cubs (897). Is it likely? Probably not, seeing as we all know that every hot streak comes with a cold streak for Sori, and we haven't seen the extended cold streak quite yet. It's not entirely out of the question though, depending on how much you believe in projection systems like ZiPS. That would give him a final wOBA of .381.

 

If you use that .381 number and try and find a comparable outfielder from last year, you end up finding guys like Jayson Werth (.382), Raul Ibanez (.379), and Torii Hunter (.379). Now, I completely understand and acknowledge the flaws that comes with fangraph's player worth system, seeing as it's based on the free agent market only, but those four players last year were worth, respectively, $21.8 million (5 UZR/150), $17.3 million (4.9 UZR/150), and $17.2 million (-2 UZR/150). If you take these numbers into account, and factor in that Sori will probably end up hurting the Cubs defensively more than those guys (with the possible exception of Ibanez, who is by all accounts brutal), he could end up being "worth" about $15 million in terms of wins brought to the team. Obviously, the math behind the value system leaves a lot to be desired, but it's the best we have at this point, and it shows Sori could end up "earning" a high percentage of his salary this year.

 

Let's just hope we'll be able to say the same for Lee and Ramirez by the end of the year....

[dew1679666265]

Do we know what brings on the cold streaks by Soriano? When Kosuke hits a cold streak, it's because of a mechanical flaw in his swing (it's why he's always been super hot after his Japanese hitting instructor visits), but do we know why Soriano gets cold?

 

If it's a mechanical thing, is it possible that Jaramillo – who specializes in memorizing and fixing mechanics – could keep Soriano out of the longterm funks he hits? I have no idea, just a thought.

[CubColtPacer]

Cubs have 3 of the top 10 OPS leaders in the NL - Fukudome, Soriano, Byrd.

 

 

I don't understand how a team with such good hitting and starting pitching can be sub .500.

 

That good hitting goes away mysteriously when there are RISP. And the bullpen is bad enough to negate the good starting pitching.

This has been shown false about 75 times on the forum, but I'll throw the updated numbers out there:

Overall:      .278/.350/.445/.794
RISP:         .258/.342/.444/.786
RISP, 2 out:  .250/.339/.482/.821
bases loaded: .290/.333/.419/.753

Oddly enough, the scoring spree against AZ has created a gap. That's the biggest difference there's been all year and it's pretty much only batting average that's different.

 

Where did you get the RISP number Tim? ESPN has it as .256/.337/.436 now, and it says that's through 26 games so that appears to have been updated. All the other numbers are identical.

 

Looking at the numbers though, a teams OPS is supposed to get slightly better with RISP (due to increased walks). Here are the numbers for the NL:

 

2009

Total: .259/.330/.409

RISP: .258/.350/.401

 

2008

Total: .260/.331/.413

RISP: .260/.352/.406

 

2007

Total: .266/.334/.422

RISP: .269/.357/.423

 

That sort of pattern continues in previous years. Batting average stays about the same, OBP goes up by around 20 points, and slugging sometimes stays around the same and sometimes drops a few points.

 

So the Cubs ISOP is up so far with RISP, but their batting average is way off and their walk rate is also slightly off so far. The overall OPS that is 21 points down gets worse when it should be 10-20 points up.

 

That hurts even worse when the NL has been an outlier at this point with RISP. Instead of settling into that 10-20 point gap so far, the NL has been 56 points of OPS better with RISP. While that should settle down as the season goes along, those are still teams that the Cubs are competing against and their RISP numbers artificially being up helps the Cubs lose. The Cubs are one of 4 teams for their numbers to be down with RISP so far-the Cubs, Philly, Washington, and San Francisco who has been really bad. They've already played 3 outliers on the other side-Arizona is around 160 points better, Houston is about 130 points better, and Atlanta is around 80 points better.

 

So the Cubs performance with RISP has hurt them somewhat so far, and it has made it even worse when you consider that the National League as a whole is red hot with RISP right now. However, those are all good things for the Cubs going forward! Those are statistics that show that the NL should cool off in that department and the Cubs should be better than they have been as the season goes along.

 

The Cubs are now 2nd in OBP, 2nd in SLG, and 3rd in OPS in the NL. If that comes anywhere close to continuing, they'll score a lot of runs over the course of the season.

[chopsx9]

 

That good hitting goes away mysteriously when there are RISP. And the bullpen is bad enough to negate the good starting pitching.

This has been shown false about 75 times on the forum, but I'll throw the updated numbers out there:

Overall:      .278/.350/.445/.794
RISP:         .258/.342/.444/.786
RISP, 2 out:  .250/.339/.482/.821
bases loaded: .290/.333/.419/.753

Oddly enough, the scoring spree against AZ has created a gap. That's the biggest difference there's been all year and it's pretty much only batting average that's different.

 

In fairness wouldn't you need to use a line for no runners in scoring position (so overall # - RISP #) rather than the overall line which I assume includes the RISP numbers?

[Old Style]

I don't condone the booing, but I understand it at times. Soriano may work extremely hard in BP, but the fans don't get to see that. They see him watch a ball from home plate like he hit hit 500 feet only to have it hit the wall and get a long single instead of an easy double. They watch him screw up routine plays in the OF over and over. And they don't see much emotion out of him. If it's one thing I learned over my many years, Chicagoans love firey people. I know Lovie lost when he got to the Super Bowl, but even if he won that game do you think he'd be as beloved as Mike Ditka? Maybe some will play that off as racism, but I think it's the fact that Ditka wore his emotions on his sleeve. There's no doubt that Marlon Byrd is going to hit a slump. I'm also convinced that when he does that he will not get booed because of the way he plays. He goes 100 mph at all times. Todd Hundley was perceived to be lazy (whether right or wrong) and he was booed unmercifully when he sucked as a Cub. Last time I checked, he was still white. Does Zambrano ever get booed? Not that I recall. The fans love him. Why?

[Andy]

Ive never seen a player who goes by such extremes as Fonz. KInd of like Super Mario when he gets ahold of his mushroom.

 

http://i141.photobucket.com/albums/r71/bcvm22/sigzeon/3Dsorismall.png

Sig'd

[Sammy Sofa]

I don't condone the booing, but I understand it at times. Soriano may work extremely hard in BP, but the fans don't get to see that. They see him watch a ball from home plate like he hit hit 500 feet only to have it hit the wall and get a long single instead of an easy double. They watch him screw up routine plays in the OF over and over. And they don't see much emotion out of him. If it's one thing I learned over my many years, Chicagoans love firey people. I know Lovie lost when he got to the Super Bowl, but even if he won that game do you think he'd be as beloved as Mike Ditka? Maybe some will play that off as racism, but I think it's the fact that Ditka wore his emotions on his sleeve. There's no doubt that Marlon Byrd is going to hit a slump. I'm also convinced that when he does that he will not get booed because of the way he plays. He goes 100 mph at all times. Todd Hundley was perceived to be lazy (whether right or wrong) and he was booed unmercifully when he sucked as a Cub. Last time I checked, he was still white. Does Zambrano ever get booed? Not that I recall. The fans love him. Why?

 

Zambrano gets booed a lot.

 

Soriano doesn't show emotion? The guy acts like an ecstatic kid when he gets a hit.

[jersey cubs fan]

If it's one thing I learned over my many years, Chicagoans love firey people.

 

Zambrano gets booed a lot.

 

Soriano doesn't show emotion? The guy acts like an ecstatic kid when he gets a hit.

 

I don't buy that emotion nonsense either. Chicago worships Ditka for a variety of reasons. He played for the Bears, was handpicked by Halas, is emotional, won a SB, has embraced Chicago like few coaches and is a national celebrity. Plus, he left as a sympathetic figure as he was pushed out the door by a hated owner. Had Wanny or Jauron won a SB, Ditka's aura would not be the same. Had Ditka not won a SB, they wouldn't like him at all.

 

Milton Bradley showed plenty of emotion and is persona non grata. The fans' mood about Zambrano varies as much as Zambrano's moods vary. DLee is completely unemotional, but he's probably the most respected player on the team. Having a big personality may make it more likely that the love gets bigger when you do succeed, but it's all about the success, or lack thereof. Soriano came up short of expectations and has been a terrible player for extended stretches, that is his problem.

[SouthSideRyan]

I think the fans take their cues from the idiot media. Stupid fucks like Kaplan hate Soriano, therefore the fans boo him. Raging buffoons like Kaplan like Theriot, therefore they love the way he plays the game.

[Jon]

That's pretty much all there is to it.

[Guest]

I think the fans take their cues from the idiot media. Stupid [expletive] like Kaplan hate Soriano, therefore the fans boo him. Raging buffoons like Kaplan like Theriot, therefore they love the way he plays the game.

 

I'm not a fan of Theroit's, but he's played very well so far this season. I keep waiting for him to suck though.