Phillies extend Howard

[SouthSideRyan]

I really hope Albert gets greedy. I think he stays in St. Louis, but it'd be great if he was taking up 1/3 of their payroll for the entire contract

[CubbieBum]

I really hope Albert gets greedy. I think he stays in St. Louis, but it'd be great if he was taking up 1/3 of their payroll for the entire contract

 

The best thing that could happen is the Cubs win the division and the Brewers finish second. That's not going to happen but I remember him saying a couple years ago that he will stay in St. Louis as long as they remain a contender.

[Bote McBoteface]

No way the Cards finish 3rd. Ive given in to the fact that Pujols will be in St. Louis forever (or at least until 3 season from now when he dies of old age)

 

But considering the Phillies just signed a platoon player to a 25 million/year deal, that is going to eat up a lot of their payroll, especially since Holiday is already eating up a ton of it.

[17 Seconds]

I really hope Albert gets greedy. I think he stays in St. Louis, but it'd be great if he was taking up 1/3 of their payroll for the entire contract

 

especially considering that he's a declining player

[Clem Fandango]

Keith Law ripped this contract a new one...

 

http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/blog?name=law_keith&id=5138711

 

A few snippets:

 

The contract extension the Phillies gave Ryan Howard made me laugh when I first heard about it. If you sign a player two years before he hits free agency, you're supposed to get a discount. Instead, the Phillies paid a premium, giving Howard more money to cover years when he won't produce nearly enough value to justify the salary.

 

Howard ranked 28th among MLB hitters in WAR in 2009, 63rd in 2008, and 38th in 2007. Even if we just look at his bat, ignoring position and defense for the moment, he ranked 18th in MLB in 2009. The Phillies just handed him the second-highest average annual salary in the game, but he's not the second-best position player in the game, or the fifth best, or even in the top 20. He's not even the best player on his own team -- that would be second baseman Chase Utley, who'll barely make half of what Howard earns in 2013, the last year of Utley's current deal.

 

This signing says to me that the Phillies are still stuck in the old model of player compensation, in which counting stats, especially home runs and RBIs, earn players the biggest paychecks, and knowledge of player aging patterns was largely absent from the industry. It's one thing to say, as the Phillies do with pride, that they don't have a soul in their front office who so much as dabbles in statistical analysis. It's another to thumb one's nose at the sort of actuarial tables that drive business decisions in almost every other industry, data that say here that Howard is part of a class of players that, as a group, ages poorly past 30, and is not worth long-term commitments at increased salaries

[XZero771679666304]

This is just an epically bad move. I was literally in disbelief when I saw the terms.

 

I can image the collective groan that emanated from the Cardinals' front office when this was announced. I still think that chances are better than not that the Cards keep Pujols, but they went down a bit, and the price he will be paid just went way up. If a strikeout prone, one dimensional near platoon player who plays average at best D is worth 25 million per, the best hitter in the game (not to mention a top tier defender at his position) who also happens to be younger is worth 30-35.

 

And that other sound you heard was the last breath of hope the Brewers had of retaining Prince Fielder.

 

I really can't fathom what the hell the Philly brass was thinking. Ryan Howard may not even be a top 5 player at his position. Just scary stupid.

[LeftCoastCubFan]

He's a good player, but I wouldn't want to pay a 35-year-old slugger $25 million.

Or a 36 year old. The new extension doesn't kick in until 2012.

[XZero771679666304]

I love Neyer's take:

 

Ryan Howard's new contract is a testament the enduring power of the Are-Bee-Eye. It's also a testament to old-school ignorance: ignorance of aging patterns, ignorance of position scarcity, ignorance of opportunity costs ... hey, take your pick. The Phillies have done a lot of things right over the last few years. But this is a big bowl of wrong.

 

 

Link

[evv98]

I guess this kills the Howard for Pujols deal.

[Banedon]

I guess this kills the Howard for Pujols deal.

 

Which always just pointed out how much the Phillies were overvaluing Howard. For some reason, they think he's in Pujols territory.

[Bote McBoteface]

People on the Phillies message board (mlb.com, I know the people on every mlb.com board are dumb, but I could not find a better Phillies board.) love the deal, and are saying that the only reason other fans and the national media don't like it is because of jealousy and the media's Philly hate.

[MWV]

Heard a good point on ESPN radio...

 

Obviously they overpaid for Howard, who is a good player but not a "special" player. The guy (maybe Kurkchen (sp?)) said that based on this deal, Pujols should be able to ask for $50m being that he's twice the player as Howard. I know that Pujols couldn't approach that much, but he is a considerably better player than Howard and if he tries to get paid like it, I could see $35m per. Probably won't happen though being that Pujols is on decline.

Comparing WAR over the past 5 years (so as to exclude Howard's incomplete first season), Pujols is worth almost exactly twice as much.

[Ding Dong Johnson]

Howard has an advantage over Pujols in that he has a significant fewer number of stupid gaffs on the bases.

[Productive Outs]

rotoworld's take:

 

Already, Howard has shown signs of decline as his walk rate has declined every year since 2007 and sits at a paltry 3.6% thus far in 2010. His BABIP has been lower as more and more teams have employed an infield shift against him. Opposing teams have also been bringing in more left-handed relievers to face Howard and his production against them has swiftly dropped. His strikeout rate has declined gradually but so has his isolated power. Using FanGraphs' pitch type linear weights, Howard's production against the fastball has dropped every year since 2006. He has swung at more and more pitches outside of the strike zone every year since he came into the Majors. Finally, his whiff rate (swinging strike percentage) has increased every year since 2006. This will be a fun ride for two, maybe even three more years, but it will quickly become tumultuous.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

I can't tell you how hard I am being torched on a non-sports board for suggesting that Ryan Howard isn't an elite player.

[Guest]

I can't tell you how hard I am being torched on a non-sports board for suggesting that Ryan Howard isn't an elite player.

 

Harry Potter fans just don't get baseball, apparently.

[17 Seconds]

keith law was in a twitter war earlier with some fat clown who was convinced he was right. he even compared law's distaste for RBIs to saying that the speed of an NHL player is more important than goal totals.

 

good stuff

[Mike Aller]

On one of those silly polls that Sports Nation does, 60% of the voters think Howard is worth 125m. ](*,)

[BigSlick]

I dont think it will make a difference who will gladly stay in St. Louis for $12/hour and the smiling faces of Cardinals fans with nothing else to live for, but Adrian Gonzalez and Prince Fielder are going to get very, very rich.

Maybe, maybe not. Who's really in the market for a first basemen and prepared to spend cash? The Yankees and the Red Sox both have those positions filled, and the Mets already had their spending spree (and burnt once already with Carlos Delgado) and may be satisfied with the Ike Davis spectacularium.

 

In fact if anyone is gonna go off the reservations with a first basemen contract, its us. (For better or worse, I wouldn't mind a young-ish Adrian Gonzalez banging it for us at Wrigley, remember that series in 08 when he seemed to hit a home run in every at bat?)

[SouthSideRyan]

The Yankees and Red Sox also have the perpetually injured Nick Johnson and the old and fat David Ortiz at their DH positions. If Gonzalez and Pujols become available, they'll both pursue them no matter who's currently manning the position.

[MWV]

Lowell is a free agent next year (may retire) and Beltre has a $5 million dollar club option with a $1 million dollar buyout. I could see Youkilis sliding back to 3B and opening up 1B in the next season or two if the right player is available.

[Sammy Sofa]

Yeah, teams with money will make room for Fielder/AGon/Pujols if they go onto the FA market, especially if they have the DH option. You really think a team that has at least an extra $20-$20 million a year to spend is going to look at Pujols and say "ooooh, yeah, sorry, we've already got 1st base locked up....maybe next time!"

[sneakypower]

i'm calling it

 

STL – Pujols

DET – Prince

CHC – AGonz

 

Yankees put in perfunctory bids to these guys and settle on the Jesus for DH

same with Sox & Lars Anderson, but i guess the wild card is if these guys get traded in a deadline deal and re-up like Holliday

 

Marlins are going to spend big on a guy to open their new stadium with (we call this Juan Gonzalezing), but i'm not sure who i think that'll be yet

[SouthSideRyan]

I didn't know Loria was selling the Marlins

[sneakypower]

to be fair, they were hot after Manny and his $20m salary before Sox took the Dodgers/Pirates offer