BP's early season record projections

[illiniguy]

I'd put a lot of money on us being better than the Reds.

 

You'd lose.

 

 

Really? I'm going to use OPS+ and ERA+ because it'll be quick. Average of the last two years.

 

Cubs                   Reds


C   SOTO          96   86  HERNANDEZ
1B  LEE          126  140  VOTTO            
2B  FONTENOT     100   98  PHILLIPS    
SS  THERIOT       88   85  CABRERA  
3B  RAMIREZ      128  112  ROLEN
LF  SORIANO      101   98  NIX          
CF  BYRD         113   99  STUBBS
RF  FUKUDOME      96   99  BRUCE

SP  ZAMBRANO     118  102  ARROYO
SP  DEMPSTER     139  118  VOLQUEZ
SP  LILLY        128   97  HARANG
SP  WELLS        123   94  CUETO
SP  GORZELANNY    72   76  BAILEY

 

And we have the better pen. They simply do not have the pitching unless like 7 things go right simultaneously.

Plus Volquez will be out this year.

[Outshined_One]

Plus Volquez will be out this year.

 

Volquez will probably be back around the All Star break, last I heard.

[scarey]

There is still plenty of projection tweaks between now and Opening Day. That said:

 

* Soto is not a 100% lock to return to 2008 levels.

* Lee is a year older and coming off a flukish power year.

* 2nd base is far from settled.

* We're counting on a slightly above average Theriot and rookies at SS.

* Aramis remains injury-prone and his shoulder could dislocate on another dive.

* Marlon Byrd's bat could regress.

* Soriano's collapse could continue

* Nady's elbow may not be right all year.

* Kosuke could become more of a whirling dervish.

* Lilly's return gets pushed back past May 1st.

* Randy Wells regresses to the league average.

* Dempster regresses a bit.

* Zambrano's elbow/shoulder finally gives out from abuse.

* None of the young minor league arms step up.

* Marmol walks too many guys.

 

None of these possibilities are that far-fetched. Could the Cubs win 95 games? Sure. But none of these will happen and the Cubs would need the Rookie of the Year.

 

I'll be happy with .500 this year, notwithstanding a solid trade. Then again, I was pessimistic in 2008 and optimistic in 2009.

 

 

Well, don't forget that Santo could fall out of the booth and die on impact, President Obama could attend a game and eat a tainted hotdog causing fatal food poisoning, and the sky could fall. Other than those exemptions, I think you have a great outlook on the upcoming season...

 

I'm not saying the Cubs will go 59-103. That list shows they're far from a lock for 95 wins and a playoff berth.

 

Thoughts like considering Zambrano's elbow and/or shoulder may finally give out is just a little too much over the top pessemism for me. That's all I'm saying.

[Garwilly]

I'd put a lot of money on us being better than the Reds.

 

You'd lose.

 

Put your money where your mouth is.

 

How?

 

I bet the Cubs finish ahead of the Reds.

You bet the Reds finish ahead of the Cubs.

 

We each send $100 (or however much you want to lose) to Vance (completely made up name) or any other trusted member, who will send the funds out after the season.

[Cubswin11]

Plus Volquez will be out this year.

 

Volquez will probably be back around the All Star break, last I heard.

And he will be given no rehab starts and pitch a CG 158 pitches in his first game back and then be done for the year.

[Cubbie Swagger]

When you think about it... our roster is not much different from 2008, besides the rotation. Our lineup is the same except Edmonds has been swapped out for Marlon Byrd, and DeRosa has been swapped out for a Fontenot/Baker platoon. Our bench and bullpen are both improved over 2008, aren't they?

 

I think in 2008, we played above our ability level, and in 2009, we played below it. I think 2010 will probably be somewhere in between those two years. But, with that said, it's still possible that we get some really good years out of some guys and put up a good season. This team doesn't really suck THAT bad, we just aren't super great either.

[chasinf5s]

Plus Volquez will be out this year.

 

Volquez will probably be back around the All Star break, last I heard.

 

They would be dumb to push him, but there is a complete moron in charge over there so it wouldnt shock me

[TruffleShuffle]

reds aside, i have no idea how people have any degree of confidence that our pitching will be better than the cardinals, or our offense will be better than the cardinals and brewers.

[Rob]

Barring just some awful luck, we should still be within a few games at the trade deadline... and we'll be able to make a couple of moves at that point.

[Sammy Sofa]

reds aside, i have no idea how people have any degree of confidence that our pitching will be better than the cardinals, or our offense will be better than the cardinals and brewers.

 

Personally, I don't think it's a matter of them being better as just being in it. Neither the Cardinals or Brewers are any kind of lock to be significantly better than the Cubs. In all this is a very mediocre at best division, hence why it's potentially still winnable for the Cubs barring how a lot of the quesiton marks go.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

reds aside, i have no idea how people have any degree of confidence that our pitching will be better than the cardinals, or our offense will be better than the cardinals and brewers.

 

They replaced Piniero's 5 win season with Brad Penny, and Wainwright and Carpenter each have injury histories and each threw at least 100 innings more than they did in 2008. Offensively the Cards are extremely top heavy, so if they have injuries or ineffectiveness to Pujols or Holliday, they're hosed. Even with them, the rest of the offense is so unproven/ungood that they aren't guaranteed to take advantage of having Pujols and Holliday. Really, a fairly significant portion of the projected difference between the Cards and Cubs is defense. Problem is, all the Cardinals' plus defenders play positions where the measurement isn't very good(Pujols, Molina), or don't have the playing time to have a lot of certainty in them being 1-2 win defenders(Ryan, Rasmus). To clarify, this doesn't mean that I think the Cubs are running away with the 2010 Central. Merely, that there isn't much of a gap between the teams, and no one should be surprised if either wins or if the race goes to the wire.

 

 

The Brewers can go sit in the corner with the Reds for all I care. They can come out of timeout when they get some pitching.

[TruffleShuffle]

reds aside, i have no idea how people have any degree of confidence that our pitching will be better than the cardinals, or our offense will be better than the cardinals and brewers.

 

They replaced Piniero's 5 win season with Brad Penny, and Wainwright and Carpenter each have injury histories and each threw at least 100 innings more than they did in 2008. Offensively the Cards are extremely top heavy, so if they have injuries or ineffectiveness to Pujols or Holliday, they're hosed. Even with them, the rest of the offense is so unproven/ungood that they aren't guaranteed to take advantage of having Pujols and Holliday. Really, a fairly significant portion of the projected difference between the Cards and Cubs is defense. Problem is, all the Cardinals' plus defenders play positions where the measurement isn't very good(Pujols, Molina), or don't have the playing time to have a lot of certainty in them being 1-2 win defenders(Ryan, Rasmus). To clarify, this doesn't mean that I think the Cubs are running away with the 2010 Central. Merely, that there isn't much of a gap between the teams, and no one should be surprised if either wins or if the race goes to the wire.

 

i don't think that's really true for their offense. ludwick is a good hitter; schumaker posts a .360 OBP from 2B, and rasmus is pretty good and should continue to improve. plus pujols and holliday have very clean injury histories and aren't likely to miss more than 10% of their games, if that.

 

The Brewers can go sit in the corner with the Reds for all I care. They can come out of timeout when they get some pitching.

 

oh their pitching is horrendous, but i still think they pretty easily have a better offense than the cubs unless braun or fielder miss a lot of time.

[Cubswin11]

reds aside, i have no idea how people have any degree of confidence that our pitching will be better than the cardinals, or our offense will be better than the cardinals and brewers.

 

They replaced Piniero's 5 win season with Brad Penny, and Wainwright and Carpenter each have injury histories and each threw at least 100 innings more than they did in 2008. Offensively the Cards are extremely top heavy, so if they have injuries or ineffectiveness to Pujols or Holliday, they're hosed. Even with them, the rest of the offense is so unproven/ungood that they aren't guaranteed to take advantage of having Pujols and Holliday. Really, a fairly significant portion of the projected difference between the Cards and Cubs is defense. Problem is, all the Cardinals' plus defenders play positions where the measurement isn't very good(Pujols, Molina), or don't have the playing time to have a lot of certainty in them being 1-2 win defenders(Ryan, Rasmus). To clarify, this doesn't mean that I think the Cubs are running away with the 2010 Central. Merely, that there isn't much of a gap between the teams, and no one should be surprised if either wins or if the race goes to the wire.

 

i don't think that's really true for their offense. ludwick is a good hitter; schumaker posts a .360 OBP from 2B, and rasmus is pretty good and should continue to improve. plus pujols and holliday have very clean injury histories and aren't likely to miss more than 10% of their games, if that.

 

The Brewers can go sit in the corner with the Reds for all I care. They can come out of timeout when they get some pitching.

 

oh their pitching is horrendous, but i still think they pretty easily have a better offense than the cubs unless braun or fielder miss a lot of time.

Even with Braun and Fielder they lack OBP and power throughout the rest of the lineup, I think 3-4 the Brewers are better than us, but we should have a deeper more balanced (in terms of OBP and power) 1-8 than they will. Unless we have to deal with significant underperformances or major injuries again, and nobody in the division is at 100+ win pace at the trade deadline, we should be within a few games of first in July and be able to add a guy or two to give us a chance to win the division or WC.

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

I'd put a lot of money on us being better than the Reds.

 

You'd lose.

 

Put your money where your mouth is.

 

How?

 

I bet the Cubs finish ahead of the Reds.

You bet the Reds finish ahead of the Cubs.

 

We each send $100 (or however much you want to lose) to Vance (completely made up name) or any other trusted member, who will send the funds out after the season.

 

If you both send me c-notes, I can't promise I ain't making a trip to the Gentleman's Club. I'm jes saying.... :hello:

[fromthestretch]

If you both send me c-notes, I can't promise I ain't making a trip to the Gentleman's Club. I'm jes saying.... :hello:

 

Does Hooters really qualify as a "gentleman's club"?

[Lefty]

I'd put a lot of money on us being better than the Reds.

 

You'd lose.

 

As a team the reds hit 8 points lower and had a OBP 14 points lower than the Cubs. The reds OPS was also well below the Cubs.

 

The cubs also had better stats compared to the reds pitching.

 

I just dont see the reds being as good as the Cubs, if only because Baker is their manager and he does not have a roided up player to make him look good....

 

Those are last year's stats. By that measure the Cubs must have won the division in 2009 because of their 2008 stats.

 

The Cubs are on their way down, the Reds on their way up. They cross this year.

 

You see no rebound from Soto or Soriano? You expect Ramirez to be hurt again? You don't think Byrd can outperform Bradley?

 

On the flip side, you're expecting who to step up for the Reds? Bruce? An 80 year old Scott Rolen?

 

I just don't see it

 

That's why they play the games. If I am wrong, I will be here all summer to get ripped.

[SouthSideRyan]

I hope the Reds get contracted.

[Lefty]

I'd put a lot of money on us being better than the Reds.

 

You'd lose.

 

Put your money where your mouth is.

 

How?

 

I bet the Cubs finish ahead of the Reds.

You bet the Reds finish ahead of the Cubs.

 

We each send $100 (or however much you want to lose) to Vance (completely made up name) or any other trusted member, who will send the funds out after the season.

 

Well I will officially wimp out in front of everybody. My summer will be lousy enough with the Cubs winning 79 games. I don't need the Reds to win anything to prove my point. I suppose if we just bet over/under on Cubs wins based on the Vegas line, it would have more merit. But I will pass on that one too.

[chasinf5s]

2. Cubs

It's never going to be a great winter when the big goal is to undo the biggest move of the winter before. They did finally get rid of Milton Bradley but had to take Carlos Silva, poster of an impossibly bad 8.60 ERA last year and one of the worst pitchers in baseball since signing for $48 million over four years, in return from Seattle. Marlon Byrd's acquisition allows them to move Kosuke Fukudome to right field, where he's excellent, although Byrd isn't exactly a Gold Glover in center. John Grabow was overpaid at $7.5 mil for two years, and Xavier Nady seems similarly fortunate to get $3.3 million (plus $2 million in incentives) given that he didn't play after April last year and needed a second Tommy John surgery. But the bigger issues were beyond their control. Ted Lilly's injury could be a big blow, and Alfonso Soriano proved to be even more untradeable than Castillo. No matter, they remain very talented and still have an excellent shot to get back to the playoffs.

 

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2010/writers/jon_heyman/02/03/winter.losers/index.html?xid=si_mlb#ixzz0eVkwhWue

[TruffleShuffle]

i'm trying to figure out how three of carlos' gomez top four pecota comps are dwight evans, carlos beltran and grady sizemore. those three guys were/are (a) really good at walking and (b) much more productive at this age than gomez has been.

[Eephus Speed]

Cardinals fan here, so you can take what I have to say with a grain of salt.

 

I think the Cubs will finish above .500. But I do think both the Reds and Brewers stand a good chance of being right there with the Cubs.

 

Bruce will probably have a big year, and the Reds have a strong defense. Rolen's still a valuable player. FWIW, CHONE's projection for Matt Maloney (Cincy's probable #5 starter) is pretty decent. They obviously need Harang and Bailey to pitch a lot more innings this year.

 

If Wolf and Davis can more or less replicate their '09 seasons, what was an 80-win Brewers team should have a much-improved rotation. Weeks staying healthy would also help. Tough to say what they'll get from CF to replace Cameron.

[Eephus Speed]

I prefer these projections: http://rlyw.blogspot.com/2010/01/extremely-early-2010-mlb-projected.html

 

I'd probably swap the Reds and Cubs.

 

The Angels winning only 81 games surprises me. 85-90 seems more likely to me. Pineiro and a full season from Kazmir should make up for losing Lackey, who missed a good chunk of time last year. Matsui replaces Vlad. Figgins had a great '09 and losing him is big. I guess Brandon Wood will be playing 3B. But they won 97 games last year, and I don't see them falling to .500.

[Northside Blues]

I cannot be the only one who noticed this.

 

2008 PECOTA Projections

2009 .289/.368/.464 Derrek Lee

2010 .287/.367/.462 Derrek Lee

 

2010 PECOTA Report

2009 .306/.393/.579 Derrek Lee's Actual Line

2010 .282/.367/.454 Derrek Lee's New Projection

 

So let me get this right. Pecota projects 2009 and 2010 with all the available information prior to 2009. One year later PECOTA gets new information which shows that Lee's 2009 projection was probably too low. Pecota takes this updated information and makes an updated projection for 2010 Derrek Lee. And this new information causes Pecota to think Lee is worse than they did prior to it.

 

Please I cannot be the only one who noticed this.

[Northside Blues]

i'm trying to figure out how three of carlos' gomez top four pecota comps are dwight evans, carlos beltran and grady sizemore. those three guys were/are (a) really good at walking and (b) much more productive at this age than gomez has been.

Pecota seems to have messed up badly and no one at BP seems to know how to fix it with Nate Silver no longer involved.

[TruffleShuffle]

i'm trying to figure out how three of carlos' gomez top four pecota comps are dwight evans, carlos beltran and grady sizemore. those three guys were/are (a) really good at walking and (b) much more productive at this age than gomez has been.

Pecota seems to have messed up badly and no one at BP seems to know how to fix it with Nate Silver no longer involved.

 

i'm guessing he'd help them fix the problems, but you're right, this year's edition seemed to have a lot of bugs in it when it was released, some of which have been fixed and some that are still issues.