BP's early season record projections

[AlwaysaCub]

I think the large number of runs allowed is as much a function of a terrible team defensive projection as regression/suck from the pitchers (and we "added" Carlos Silva).

Why would the team defense be worse than last year? Kosuke is a better defender in right than Bradley. Byrd is a better defender in CF than Kosuke. Everyone else is the same.

 

Good try, but can't see it.

 

While I agree that we probably won't regress as much as that projection of our defense, I can see where it's coming from. Everyone got a year older, which means a year further from everyone's prime. The cubs are going to start one position player next year (Soto) under 30. Soriano has had huge regressions on defense each of the past two years. Byrd rates at below average, though above replacement, in center. Defensive metrics say that Lee has been declining with the glove for years. I'm not saying I agree, but a bad defense is a very real factor in that RA projection.

[Soul]

8 under .500? Seriously?

 

They are still short a good starter, and have serious holes in the rotation and questionable lineup. I think they'll end up better than that, but the potential is clearly there for this team to tank. They are an older version of last year's disappointment with no significant improvements from acquisitions.

 

I was thinking the season would be rough. But more like .500 rough, not 8 under rough.

[Guest]

you guys are taking this WAY too seriously.

[jersey cubs fan]

you guys are taking this WAY too seriously.

 

I think you are interpreting posts wrong. Nobody is locking in bets on this information. I think something like this indicates the Cubs have potential for being somewhat weak this season. A lot of people were assuming the Cubs were still the clear favorite when in reality it's probably more true that last year was less flukish and more indicative of an old team with many flaws.

[dew1679666265]

I think the large number of runs allowed is as much a function of a terrible team defensive projection as regression/suck from the pitchers (and we "added" Carlos Silva).

Why would the team defense be worse than last year? Kosuke is a better defender in right than Bradley. Byrd is a better defender in CF than Kosuke. Everyone else is the same.

 

Good try, but can't see it.

 

While I agree that we probably won't regress as much as that projection of our defense, I can see where it's coming from. Everyone got a year older, which means a year further from everyone's prime. The cubs are going to start one position player next year (Soto) under 30. Soriano has had huge regressions on defense each of the past two years. Byrd rates at below average, though above replacement, in center. Defensive metrics say that Lee has been declining with the glove for years. I'm not saying I agree, but a bad defense is a very real factor in that RA projection.

 

According to UZR, Byrd is a perfectly average (0.0) center fielder defensively and is slightly above average with the bat (if Texas production means anything at all). And Kosuke is a massive improvement in right.

 

I see no way that this team is that much worse than last year. Improvements from third base (Aramis being healthy even a little more), left field, bullpen and bench should ensure that.

[Guancous]

There is still plenty of projection tweaks between now and Opening Day. That said:

 

* Soto is not a 100% lock to return to 2008 levels.

* Lee is a year older and coming off a flukish power year.

* 2nd base is far from settled.

* We're counting on a slightly above average Theriot and rookies at SS.

* Aramis remains injury-prone and his shoulder could dislocate on another dive.

* Marlon Byrd's bat could regress.

* Soriano's collapse could continue

* Nady's elbow may not be right all year.

* Kosuke could become more of a whirling dervish.

* Lilly's return gets pushed back past May 1st.

* Randy Wells regresses to the league average.

* Dempster regresses a bit.

* Zambrano's elbow/shoulder finally gives out from abuse.

* None of the young minor league arms step up.

* Marmol walks too many guys.

 

None of these possibilities are that far-fetched. Could the Cubs win 95 games? Sure. But none of these will happen and the Cubs would need the Rookie of the Year.

 

I'll be happy with .500 this year, notwithstanding a solid trade. Then again, I was pessimistic in 2008 and optimistic in 2009.

[dew1679666265]

There are good things that could happen this year as well.

 

- Aramis is unlikely to miss 1/2 the year again and, if he does, we'll have a third baseman to replace him this year

- Soriano is unlikely not to improve some, if not a decent amount

- The bullpen should be improved over last season

- Soto is in much better shape and should be healthier/more productive

- Fontenot should be able to remain in a platoon all year instead of bouncing between positions and he's always been productive in a platoon role

- Outfield defense is almost a definite to be better with average Byrd replacing below average Bradley and Kosuke moving to right

 

That's only a few of the good things that could go well this year and, if only a few do, then a significant decline from last year is unlikely. This projection seems to be a very low-end type projection. It could be accurate, but I think it's too pessimistic.

[jersey cubs fan]

- The bullpen should be improved over last season

 

I don't get why the bullpen should be improved. It's a bullpen, filled with relievers, the most unreliable players in the game. And they haven't added an ace reliever. So there's no "should" about it.

[Sammy Sofa]

The bullpen was perfectly average last year, Gregg aside. It's not like it has to be better from last year for the team to do well.

 

Yes, it could easily be worse since we're talking relievers here, but analysis of last year's team that acts like the bullpen was a major problem isn't exactly realistic. The problem was much more along the lines of the underwhelming offense leaving too many close games for the bullpen to hold while the bats went dead.

Edited January 29, 2010 by Sammy Sofa

[jersey cubs fan]

The bullpen was perfectly average last year, Gregg aside. It's not like it has to be better from last year for the team to do well.

 

I'm not saying it has to be, I'm just wondering why people are saying it should be better this year.

[shnsajax]

The bullpen was perfectly average last year, Gregg aside. It's not like it has to be better from last year for the team to do well.

 

As Tim mentioned the sheer netgain of losing Gregg and Heilman will be great. Marmol was bad last season too, and with the young arms in the minors the bullpen has a lot of potential. With that said the bullpen is the easiest area to improve in or decline from 1 season to the next.

[jersey cubs fan]

The bullpen was perfectly average last year, Gregg aside. It's not like it has to be better from last year for the team to do well.

 

As Tim mentioned the sheer netgain of losing Gregg and Heilman will be great. Marmol was bad last season too, and with the young arms in the minors the bullpen has a lot of potential. With that said the bullpen is the easiest area to improve in or decline from 1 season to the next.

 

Neither one of those guys was particularly horrible, even if they were dumb acquisitions, and none of the young arms are guaranteed to be better.

[Sammy Sofa]

Yeah, Heilman's horrible-ness has been vastly overstated on this board.

[Soul]

Yeah, Heilman's horrible-ness has been vastly overstated on this board.

 

OK.

 

But I can't deny that I'm glad to see him gone. Emotionally.

[Little Slide Rooter]

also, jake fox is projected to hit 30 hr's for oakland.

 

Maybe as an everyday player, but more like 20-25. Problem is, with Kouzmanoff aquired to play everyday 3B, and the resigning of Jack Cust, Fox is going to be back to fighting for at bats.

[dew1679666265]

- The bullpen should be improved over last season

 

I don't get why the bullpen should be improved. It's a bullpen, filled with relievers, the most unreliable players in the game. And they haven't added an ace reliever. So there's no "should" about it.

 

"Should" is overly optimistic, but that was the point of the post. I was responding to a post that gave all the bad stuff that could happen and I was showing the good stuff that could happen. My point was that the likelihood is somewhere in between. I think the bullpen will be better, though how much better is determinant on quite a few factors.

[chasinf5s]

- The bullpen should be improved over last season

 

I don't get why the bullpen should be improved. It's a bullpen, filled with relievers, the most unreliable players in the game. And they haven't added an ace reliever. So there's no "should" about it.

 

Maybe its the 22 home runs they both gave up. Gregg gave up more home runs than Zambrano (yes Z is hard to homer against but still Zambrano pitched 100 more innings last year)

 

Or look at it this way

Those 2 gave up the same amount of home runs as Guzman 8, Grabow 1, Marshall 10, Marmol 2,

 

Maybe it was the 13 blown saves between them (rest of the team had 5)

 

The 64 BB's

 

Heilman was complete garbage last year no matter what anyone tries to make you think. He was good with none on but as soon as a runner got on, his ERA shot up nearly 3 runs, even higher with RISP and downright horrible with RISP and 2 out...

 

Gregg, if you ignore the 9 homeruns he gave up with no one on was decent. Then as soon as a runner gets on base, his ERA rises nearly 6 runs and then up to a 22.00 era with RISP with 2 out.

 

Heilman entered games with a total of 37 runners on base, 17 of those runners scored...

[TruffleShuffle]

amazing how guys have much worse ERAs when facing batters with runners on base.

[Vinestal]

Its going to be ugly there is almost nothing about the 2010 Cubs that excites me. Under .500 wouldn't suprise me at all. We might be stuck in mediocre limbo for quite a while actually, this is the most uninterested Ive been in the Cubs during an offseason that I can remember. I honestly don't see a lot of hope, unless its coming from the minor leagues or something. Edited January 30, 2010 by Vinestal

[Roast]

Its going to be ugly there is almost nothing about the 2010 Cubs that excites me. Under .500 wouldn't suprise me at all. We might be stuck in mediocre limbo for quite a while actually, this is the most uninterested Ive been in the Cubs during an offseason that I can remember. I honestly don't see a lot of hope, unless its coming from the minor leagues or something.

I am inclined to agree with you. My best attempt at making things look positive are as follows:

 

- Soto was awful last year. He will be better this year, possibly siginicantly

- Soriano was horrid. It's unlikely he'll be a stud but even a mediocre year from him would be a big upgrade over last year

- 2nd base was a sinkhole. It's no where near fixed, but a year-long baker/fontenot platoon will likely be better than the mess that was out there for so long last year

- Ramirez is unlikely to miss half the season again, he's still a great hitter.

- Fukudome is becoming more accustomed to the length/grind/schedule of an MLB season. Maybe he improves slightly this year.

 

None of those things seem incredibly far-fetched. They could all reasonably happen. If some/all of those things come to fruition we may not be as screwed as we think.

 

That said, I still have very little hope.

[JGalt73]

OK - looks like BP worked out the early kinks (and RS/RA issues), but it still looks bleak.

 

NL Central

St. Louis Cardinals 86 - 76 ; 745/702

Cincinnati Reds 81 - 81 ; 726 /730

Chicago Cubs 77 - 85 ; 725/768

Milwaukee Brewers 77 - 85 ; 766/805

Houston Astros 74 - 88 ; 714/779

Pittsburgh Pirates 68 - 94 ; 704/813

[Transmogrified Tiger]

I'd put a lot of money on us being better than the Reds.

[Guest]

Fine. Can someone explain to me how our pitching staff is ~100 runs worse than last year when Harden is the only good pitcher we won't have back and he had an off year in 2009?

[TruffleShuffle]

Fine. Can someone explain to me how our pitching staff is ~100 runs worse than last year when Harden is the only good pitcher we won't have back and he had an off year in 2009?

 

it has samardzija, silva and mitch atkins all getting a pretty good amount of playing time and doing terribly (~5.5 ERA), and projects patton to have a 6.79 ERA in 55 innings. if any of those guys are that bad, they won't get the kind of innings that PECOTA thinks they'll get, and they'll be replaced by someone (gaub, parker) who would probably do better.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Fine. Can someone explain to me how our pitching staff is ~100 runs worse than last year when Harden is the only good pitcher we won't have back and he had an off year in 2009?

 

it has samardzija, silva and mitch atkins all getting a pretty good amount of playing time and doing terribly (~5.5 ERA), and projects patton to have a 6.79 ERA in 55 innings. if any of those guys are that bad, they won't get the kind of innings that PECOTA thinks they'll get, and they'll be replaced by someone (gaub, parker) who would probably do better.

 

Atkins? Patton? That's really dumb. None of those guys mentioned should be starting beyond April(unless they're outperforming projections by quite a bit), and none of them are going to touch meaningful bullpen innings unless Samardzija is lights out. Even with injury there's Marmol, Guzman, Grabow, and Marshall that are entrenched, plus more talented guys like Gaub and Parker that could be breaking through.