Zambrano as Trade Bait?

[Wheelimus]

You know, I could see Zambrano going to an AL team...assuming they agreed to start him at DH in between starts. Which would be crazy to watch, ha.

[jersey cubs fan]

You know, I could see Zambrano going to an AL team...assuming they agreed to start him at DH in between starts. Which would be crazy to watch, ha.

 

 

Kansas City might be the only team that could justify such a move, and really, they couldn't justify it.

[Outshined_One]

Frankly, I don't think anyone is untradeable. Even for the right price, the Cardinals would trade Albert Pujols (and holy wow would that price be steep).

 

The problem with trading Zambrano is that there would be no replacement for him. People are correct to point out that he is not an ace caliber starting pitcher. However, he is a good #2 starting pitcher with a history of being a workhorse and an inning eater. Assuming the Cubs kept Harden and Z were traded for a bat or prospects, the Cubs' rotation would look something like Harden-Lilly-Dempster-Wells-5th starter (Gorzelanny/Marshall/Heilman etc). That's an okay rotation, don't get me wrong, but this team would have trouble competing with that rotation. It'd look even worse if Harden were gone.

 

So, either the Cubs find a team willing to give up major league quality pitching for Zambrano (or trade prospects for a pitcher after trading Z) or try their luck in the free agent market, where the top names that will likely be floating around include Erik Bedard and Jason Marquis. The first option seems unlikely, since guys like Matt Cain, Felix Hernandez, and Chad Billingsley are enormously valuable to their respective teams and are cheap. Even if the Cubs were to pick up part of his salary, I have trouble seeing a trade like that happen. Trading prospects for a pitcher is a possibility, but frankly, I don't think the Cubs have the ammunition in their farm system to swing a trade for a good starting pitcher.

 

I don't blame the Cubs for testing the trade waters with Z, but I have trouble envisioning a scenario where the Cubs trade Zambrano and become a better team as a result of that trade.

[Backtobanks]

Obviously an discussion of trading Zambrano would be limited to the handful of teams that could afford his contract. Add to that the fact Zambrano would want to stay in the NL to hit and you've about run out of options.

 

 

 

 

3 of the teams he stated hed like to pitch for were the Yankees, Red Sox, and White Sox, so Id assume hed take a deal to an AL team.

 

 

You know better than to believe anything Z says. He has a NTC and loves to hit, so unless somebody offers him a 3 year $100 million extension he won't waive his NTC.

[Guest]

. People are correct to point out that he is not an ace caliber starting pitcher.

What's an ace caliber starting pitcher?

 

He's only 28 and he's got a better career ERA+ than CC Sabathia, Chris Carpenter, Ted Lilly, Danny Haren, Jake Peavey, Cliff Lee, John Lackey, Josh Beckett, Zach Greinke, and just under Roy Halladay (Doc 132, Z 127). His WHIP is better than or just over all of them too.

 

Z's problem is that he gets demonstrably upset while in public, not that he's not a great pitcher. As per usual, the Cubs are going to trade him for cents on the dollar mostly because they don't like his antics. On top of that they're tipping their hand publicly, which more than likely lowers whatever value he would have had if it were not the case.

 

There's a reason why they haven't won a world series in over 100 years.

 

Edit: I forgot to mention that he hits pretty well for a pitcher too. Cobs!

[jersey cubs fan]

Z's problem is that he gets demonstrably upset while in the public, not that he's not a great pitcher.

 

His problem is he hasn't been as good the last couple years as he was earlier in his career. He walks too many and doesn't get enough strikeouts and allows to many runs to score to be considered as a legit Cy Young candidate. He could be the opening day starter on numerous teams, but I don't consider him a lockdown ace.

 

In the past two years he's been a top 10 NL pitcher in only one pitching category HR/9 this season.

 

I think it's completely disingenuous to just pretend Cubs fans don't appreciate what they've got. He's been a really good pitcher for several years, and on an overall basis during that time he's been one of the best. But in any given recent season he hasn't been elite and as a $18m/year guy he leaves a lot to be desired. The team is probably tight for cash and could be better off trading him and his salary for something else and replacing him with somebody cheaper.

[Outshined_One]

. People are correct to point out that he is not an ace caliber starting pitcher.

What's an ace caliber starting pitcher?

 

He's only 28 and he's got a better career ERA+ than CC Sabathia, Chris Carpenter, Ted Lilly, Danny Haren, Jake Peavey, Cliff Lee, John Lackey, Josh Beckett, Zach Greinke, and just under Roy Halladay (Doc 132, Z 127). His WHIP is better than or just over all of them too.

 

Z's problem is that he gets demonstrably upset while in public, not that he's not a great pitcher. As per usual, the Cubs are going to trade him for cents on the dollar mostly because they don't like his antics. On top of that they're tipping their hand publicly, which more than likely lowers whatever value he would have had if it were not the case.

 

There's a reason why they haven't won a world series in over 100 years.

 

Edit: I forgot to mention that he hits pretty well for a pitcher too. Cobs!

 

Rather than over his career, I'd prefer to focus on the past three years, where most of those guys have been better than Zambrano, by a wide margin in some instances. His hitting adds to his value, but the fact remains that Zambrano has not been a top-flight pitcher over the past three years. You can make a good argument that Ted Lilly has been more productive than Zambrano over that stretch.

[Larry Horse]

There's a reason why they haven't won a world series in over 100 years.

 

Yea, I'd say bad player development and evaluation coupled with bad contracts.

 

Z has the one contract that they could conceivably move.

 

If he is the stud that the Cubs paid him like, then there should be plenty of teams willing to take on the money.

 

If not, it's another case of Hendry doling out bad money.

[chasinf5s]

I disagree. We have lots of guys we can trade for good kids. None of our big guys will want to stay if we are rebuilding. They will accept trades although they have no trade contracts. We let Hardin and Grabow walk and offer arbitration, and get draft picks. One of the things that has hurt this team is the 2002 draft. We had 4 first round picks, and 2 second round picks, and none of them made the majors. And it was a good draft year. Rich Hill was taken in the 4th round and made it, Billy Petrick made it from the 3rd round. We used the 21st pick of the draft on Bobby Brownlee, I would have used it on Matt Cain pitching in SF. #'s 32, 36 and 38 could have been used on guys I wanted us to take, Dave Bush, and Jon Lester. Just think where we would be if we had used that draft wisely.

 

The reason the Cubs have not won in over 100 years is because of the argument I hear on this board, be competitive. I don't want to be competitve, I want to win. Why settle for being competitive? What is the harm if we are not competitive for a couple years? Especially when you know the good players are on their way up. Use the trades to bring in good players to go with what we have in the minors right now. And draft wisely, like we did in 2008. I think we had a great draft in 2008, then a terrible draft in 2009. I have no idea what happened this time, but it was not nearly as good a draft. Maybe it was just not as good a draft year this time.

 

I say forget the word competitive, and say we want to win. We cannot win now as we are to old and injury riddled to win. So let us take the time to rebuild from the bottom up. Start over. Other teams have done that and come on and won more than once recently, while the Cubs are satisfied with just being competitive. You have gotten your wish for way too long, just stay competitive. That is not good enough for me.

 

I don't think this bunch will win next year. But I hope I am wrong, cause I am sure they will be back. You win, we will try to be competitive again next year. And we will be saying wait till next year one more time. Well, I am tired of saying it. Enough is enough.

 

Here is the team I want on the field next season:

 

1b-Hoffpaiur

2b-Scales, Blanco

ss-Barney

3b-Fox

c-Clevenger, Robinson

lf-Soriano, don't want him, but cannot trade him, so he will be here

cf-Fuld

rf-Fukodome, unless someone will take his contract, then put Fox out there, and play Smith at 3b

 

Rotation

 

1. Wells

2. Samardjiza

3. Caridad

4. Atkins

5. ??????

 

Bullpen

 

1. Parker

2. Stevens

3. Maestri

4. Gaub

5. Mateo

6. Berg

 

I know it won't win, but neither will the team we have now. And we will have lots of good minor leaguers coming up in a year or two or three. We will at least be building toward winning instead of trying to stay competitive and put fans in the seats. I am one fan who would rather win.

 

Thank the good Lord above that you have no chance of ever being in charge of a team

[Guest]

If he is the stud that the Cubs paid him like, then there should be plenty of teams willing to take on the money.

That's not the case at all. There are a very limited amount of clubs who could afford him. I'd go so far as to say that if the Cubs trade him, they'll be picking up a portion of his salary or they won't be getting much talent in return. Either case is going to make them a weaker team.

[dew1679666265]

If he is the stud that the Cubs paid him like, then there should be plenty of teams willing to take on the money.

That's not the case at all. There are a very limited amount of clubs who could afford him. I'd go so far as to say that if the Cubs trade him, they'll be picking up a portion of his salary or they won't be getting much talent in return. Either case is going to make them a weaker team.

 

Yeah, there aren't plenty of teams that can take on $18 million for anybody. Even less will take on that kind of money and give away valuable talent as well.

 

Roy Halladay wasn't traded for that exact reason. The Jays wanted teams to give up valuable talent and take on his entire contract and nobody would do both. And Halladay is most definitely an ace.

[Rob]

We wont trade Zambrano this season.

[Eric Clipperton]

. People are correct to point out that he is not an ace caliber starting pitcher.

What's an ace caliber starting pitcher?

 

He's only 28 and he's got a better career ERA+ than CC Sabathia, Chris Carpenter, Ted Lilly, Danny Haren, Jake Peavey, Cliff Lee, John Lackey, Josh Beckett, Zach Greinke, and just under Roy Halladay (Doc 132, Z 127). His WHIP is better than or just over all of them too.

 

Z's problem is that he gets demonstrably upset while in public, not that he's not a great pitcher. As per usual, the Cubs are going to trade him for cents on the dollar mostly because they don't like his antics. On top of that they're tipping their hand publicly, which more than likely lowers whatever value he would have had if it were not the case.

 

There's a reason why they haven't won a world series in over 100 years.

 

Edit: I forgot to mention that he hits pretty well for a pitcher too. Cobs!

 

Rather than over his career, I'd prefer to focus on the past three years, where most of those guys have been better than Zambrano, by a wide margin in some instances. His hitting adds to his value, but the fact remains that Zambrano has not been a top-flight pitcher over the past three years. You can make a good argument that Ted Lilly has been more productive than Zambrano over that stretch.

 

Yes, using career stats is obviously a flawed way to measure value. Basically every one of those pitchers except Z had a few bad years before becoming a top pitcher, while Z came up and started tearing it up relatively quickly. Unfortunately, he has been slowly in decline ever since his first full season.

 

WAR by year, 2003-2009:

4.9, 4.7, 4.5, 3.9, 2.8, 2.8, 2.7

The last three years we have seen an above average starter, for sure, but not really the "true ace" everyone must mention when talking about starting pitchers. I agree that Lilly has been better over the last three years, and think at worst the two could be considered equal.

 

In fact, if you look further into Z's peripherals, he has been getting worse over the past couple years from what I can see: while this year Z has a 3.82 FIP, it turns out this is propped up by a ridiculously low 6.5% HR/FB rate which turns out to be behind his low home run rate in 2009 of 0.63 HR/9. If he could really keep preventing HRs at this rate, he would still be good even with his recent decrease in strikeout rate and always suspect walk rate. Since the GB% is down to a career-low of 43.2% (for comparison, 2003: 55.4%, 2004: 50.7%,2005: 50.0%, 2006-8 all right around 47%) it will be impossible to sustain even this modest level of success without some serious changes to reverse these peripheral trends.

 

None of these trends show much hope that Z will improve over the next few years, and actually may continue to decline. He'll probably be about a 3-win(over replacement, not Official Pitcher Wins) pitcher. This is very valuable...but not $18MM/yr worth. Zambrano with his current contract is essentially a negative value asset. Given his "ace" status in the common media, I'll give him the benefit of the doubt and say he is basically zero value. Worthless.

So don't expect to receive much of anything for him, and if we do get an offer from a team desparate for an "ace" no matter how much it smells like an $18MM/yr #2, then Carlos it's been nice knowing you from the stands and through the airwaves all these years. The chances we will regret trading you for any significant return? Slim.

[17 Seconds]

. People are correct to point out that he is not an ace caliber starting pitcher.

What's an ace caliber starting pitcher?

 

He's only 28 and he's got a better career ERA+ than CC Sabathia, Chris Carpenter, Ted Lilly, Danny Haren, Jake Peavey, Cliff Lee, John Lackey, Josh Beckett, Zach Greinke, and just under Roy Halladay (Doc 132, Z 127). His WHIP is better than or just over all of them too.

 

Z's problem is that he gets demonstrably upset while in public, not that he's not a great

 

No, Z's problem is that he's steadily been declining for several years now. He is no longer even in the same category as any of those pitchers you mentioned. Not even close.

 

He hasn't posted a WHIP under 1.29 since 2005. His K/BB hasn't been above 1.86 since 2005.

 

Z was an "ace" in 2004 and 2005, and that's it. Since then, he's been a solid number 2.

 

Oh, and then there's the fact that his body has started breaking down the last couple years.

 

Honestly, I'm scared of where Zambrano's career is headed.

[17 Seconds]

. People are correct to point out that he is not an ace caliber starting pitcher.

What's an ace caliber starting pitcher?

 

He's only 28 and he's got a better career ERA+ than CC Sabathia, Chris Carpenter, Ted Lilly, Danny Haren, Jake Peavey, Cliff Lee, John Lackey, Josh Beckett, Zach Greinke, and just under Roy Halladay (Doc 132, Z 127). His WHIP is better than or just over all of them too.

 

Z's problem is that he gets demonstrably upset while in public, not that he's not a great pitcher. As per usual, the Cubs are going to trade him for cents on the dollar mostly because they don't like his antics. On top of that they're tipping their hand publicly, which more than likely lowers whatever value he would have had if it were not the case.

 

There's a reason why they haven't won a world series in over 100 years.

 

Edit: I forgot to mention that he hits pretty well for a pitcher too. Cobs!

 

You can make a good argument that Ted Lilly has been more productive than Zambrano over that stretch.

 

much better, actually

[Little Slide Rooter]

Yes, Ted Lilly has been better than Zambrano this year. Zambrano has had bad year, no question. He had a mediocre year last year, but the fact remains, we know what hes capable.

 

Last night, we saw everything thats wrong and right with Zambrano. for 4.2 innings, he had the best stuff of any pircher in baseball. Then he gives up a 2 out single, which should have been a double to the pitcer, then he wals the next guy, and a few 2 out baserunners became 5 2 out runs way too quickly. When Zs on, you can call him Snapple because he has some of the best stuff on earth, but when he starts his little tantrums, you better make sure someones warming up in the pen real quick or things can get very ugle very quick.

[CubColtPacer]

. People are correct to point out that he is not an ace caliber starting pitcher.

What's an ace caliber starting pitcher?

 

He's only 28 and he's got a better career ERA+ than CC Sabathia, Chris Carpenter, Ted Lilly, Danny Haren, Jake Peavey, Cliff Lee, John Lackey, Josh Beckett, Zach Greinke, and just under Roy Halladay (Doc 132, Z 127). His WHIP is better than or just over all of them too.

 

Z's problem is that he gets demonstrably upset while in public, not that he's not a great pitcher. As per usual, the Cubs are going to trade him for cents on the dollar mostly because they don't like his antics. On top of that they're tipping their hand publicly, which more than likely lowers whatever value he would have had if it were not the case.

 

There's a reason why they haven't won a world series in over 100 years.

 

Edit: I forgot to mention that he hits pretty well for a pitcher too. Cobs!

 

You can make a good argument that Ted Lilly has been more productive than Zambrano over that stretch.

 

much better, actually

 

Pitching wise Lilly might be better over that timeframe. But Z's hitting probably puts him at a greater value than somebody like Lilly. A 400 point OPS advantage in over 200 PA's in that timeframe is significant.

 

Z's been very valuable also not only because of his production but because of his consistency. Having a player locked in who is going to give you well above average numbers every single season is very helpful. Is that worth 18 million dollars? To a team with the Cubs payroll, probably.

 

For a big payroll team, the constraints of the roster limit of 25 is just as significant as the constraints of the payroll. There's only so many places to spread the money around, and often the mid-salary players are the worst buys because their inconsistency and their use of a roster spot clash (for example lower end starting pitchers, good relievers, bench players-anybody who typically gets signed between 2-8 million per year).

To know that Z every single year is going to be worth putting onto the mound and the Cubs are never going to have to worry about if they need to bench him and when to pull the trigger on that (Soriano this year for example) makes the percentage of the payroll he can take up higher.

 

Now this is all contingent on Z's health. If you feel is his health is going to continue declining over the next 3 years or is even likely to stay as bad as it was in 2009, then he should be traded. If you feel he's going to make over 90 starts the next 3 seasons, then a guy who pitches close to 200 innings per year with a consistent ERA around 4 with a bat that adds value could well be worth around 7 to 7.5% of the Cubs total payroll.

 

If aces were available more regularly and the Cubs had a real chance of getting one for just a few million more (say 22 million a year) than having Z gone and having the financial flexibility to pick up an ace when one becomes available would be helpful. But those aces rarely come on the free agent market and so having Z at that price is preferable to waiting with a worse roster for the small chance that a true ace would come along

[Benchwarmer]

What are you looking at? Get rid of him. He's no ace. He's a $18M drain on this club. Let someone else worry about his head, lack of heart, etc.. Another over-hyped Cub who fizzles out before our eyes.

Are there any more Pattersons left for Hendry to sign?

[Little Slide Rooter]

What are you looking at? Get rid of him. He's no ace. He's a $18M drain on this club. Let someone else worry about his head, lack of heart, etc.. Another over-hyped Cub who fizzles out before our eyes.

Are there any more Pattersons left for Hendry to sign?

 

Not being an ace and being a "drain on the club" are 2 very different things.

[Halman]

Not being an ace and being a "drain on the club" are 2 very different things.

 

Ryan Dempster's 14 mill for jason marquisian type production is a drain on the club.

[SouthSideRyan]

I hate everyone.

[17 Seconds]

Not being an ace and being a "drain on the club" are 2 very different things.

 

Ryan Dempster's 14 mill for jason marquisian type production is a drain on the club.

 

dempster isn't having a jason marquis type season.

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

I'm not reading this whole thread because I'm fairly certain I'd jab out my eyes with a pencil if I did, but here are my thoughts.

 

I really don't see trading Zambrano as a good option if we plan to contend in the present. I do not think we'd get enough current value in the deal. The teams most willing to take on Zambrano and his contract would be teams built to win now and we'd likely only get b to b+ prospects back.

 

But, if we could get a team to overpay for him with a top level prospect who could step in and take his place or get a quality major league pitcher and salary relief, then it's worth exploring.

 

Trading him for trading's sake is a dumb idea, however.

[Backtobanks]

Hendry should let people know that he's willing to listen to offers for Zambrano. If he can get equal value, trade him. If he can't, don't trade him. Get past the contract issue unless you have or get someone to fill his spot in the rotation.

[Little Slide Rooter]

I really don't see trading Zambrano as a good option if we plan to contend in the present. I do not think we'd get enough current value in the deal. The teams most willing to take on Zambrano and his contract would be teams built to win now and we'd likely only get b to b+ prospects back.

 

But, if we could get a team to overpay for him with a top level prospect who could step in and take his place or get a quality major league pitcher and salary relief, then it's worth exploring.

 

Trading him for trading's sake is a dumb idea, however.

 

That pretty much sums it up.