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Felix Pie


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16-5 O's in the 7th

 

- F. Pie doubled to right, N. Reimold scored, M. Mora to third

- F. Pie homered to deep right

- F. Pie singled to shortstop

- F. Pie tripled to center, A. Huff and M. Wieters scored (same inning as the single)

 

EDIT: And Cesar Izturis is a homer shy of one of his own :shock:

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raising his 2009 OPS to a might .706

 

If you take out his 51 ABs in April where his OPS was .461, Pie has hit .309/.351/.495 for an .846 OPS. Since June 1, granted in only 55 ABs, his OPS is a fantastic .961. If the O's continue to hit him between Roberts and Adam Jones, he could end this season with some respectable numbers.

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He's had a much better year IMO and has gone from a late defensive replacement/5th OF'er to a 4th OF'er capable of spot-starting at all 3 OF spots.

 

His biggest improvement has been his increased ability to put the ball into play as well as his ability to avoid hitting in bad counts as his PAs with 2 strikes in down significantly, with his aggressive apporach this is key, IMO.

 

We'll see if he can take that next step and con't to progress at the plate by getting better pitches to hit, using all fields, and staying out of bad counts combined with his plus defensive abilities to become a legit starting CF'er at some point. He has the bat speed but that his swing can still get long and hit lazy fly-balls to RF instead of staying back, shortening that swing, and going gap to gap.

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i'm gonna be really pissed when we face him in the world series

 

that's why i hate trading players to the american league, there's always the chance we'll meet them in the ws

 

If it means facing the Baltimore Orioles in the world series, thats a chance Im willing to take.

 

i think the orioles would wax us in the WS

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Yeah, I'd totally rather rely on Gaithright and Fuld then see if Pie could still figure it out in the same role. We're way better off this way.

 

he was never going to play; reed johnson was the platoon partner for fukudome and the corners were filled by bradley and soriano. pie was never going to "figure it out" in a role where he never played and didn't get to adjust to major league pitching.

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Yeah, I'd totally rather rely on Gaithright and Fuld then see if Pie could still figure it out in the same role. We're way better off this way.

 

he was never going to play; reed johnson was the platoon partner for fukudome and the corners were filled by bradley and soriano. pie was never going to "figure it out" in a role where he never played and didn't get to adjust to major league pitching.

 

Agreed. Once we decided to sign Bradley, Pie had no place on this team.

 

I really wish Lou would have given Pie a fair shake last year though... but of course he defaulted to the scrappy veteran Reed Johnson after about 4 games.

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Yeah, I'd totally rather rely on Gaithright and Fuld then see if Pie could still figure it out in the same role. We're way better off this way.

 

he was never going to play; reed johnson was the platoon partner for fukudome and the corners were filled by bradley and soriano. pie was never going to "figure it out" in a role where he never played and didn't get to adjust to major league pitching.

 

Agreed. Once we decided to sign Bradley, Pie had no place on this team.

 

I really wish Lou would have given Pie a fair shake last year though... but of course he defaulted to the scrappy veteran Reed Johnson after about 4 games.

 

In all fairness Reed Johnson played very well last year and even hit righties pretty well.

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Yeah, I'd totally rather rely on Gaithright and Fuld then see if Pie could still figure it out in the same role. We're way better off this way.

 

he was never going to play; reed johnson was the platoon partner for fukudome and the corners were filled by bradley and soriano. pie was never going to "figure it out" in a role where he never played and didn't get to adjust to major league pitching.

 

Agreed. Once we decided to sign Bradley, Pie had no place on this team.

 

I really wish Lou would have given Pie a fair shake last year though... but of course he defaulted to the scrappy veteran Reed Johnson after about 4 games.

 

In all fairness Reed Johnson played very well last year and even hit righties pretty well.

 

No he didn't. 280/323/398 compared to Pie's line of 264/316/361

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raising his 2009 OPS to a might .706

 

If you take out his 51 ABs in April where his OPS was .461, Pie has hit .309/.351/.495 for an .846 OPS. Since June 1, granted in only 55 ABs, his OPS is a fantastic .961. If the O's continue to hit him between Roberts and Adam Jones, he could end this season with some respectable numbers.

 

Why would we take out the 51 ABs in April?

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raising his 2009 OPS to a might .706

 

If you take out his 51 ABs in April where his OPS was .461, Pie has hit .309/.351/.495 for an .846 OPS. Since June 1, granted in only 55 ABs, his OPS is a fantastic .961. If the O's continue to hit him between Roberts and Adam Jones, he could end this season with some respectable numbers.

 

Why would we take out the 51 ABs in April?

 

To make a point?

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raising his 2009 OPS to a might .706

 

If you take out his 51 ABs in April where his OPS was .461, Pie has hit .309/.351/.495 for an .846 OPS. Since June 1, granted in only 55 ABs, his OPS is a fantastic .961. If the O's continue to hit him between Roberts and Adam Jones, he could end this season with some respectable numbers.

 

Why would we take out the 51 ABs in April?

 

To make a point?

 

And indicate a trend. He's not just randomly taking out 51 ABs, he's taking out the first 51 ABs for a 24 year old player who has played better since April.

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That still seems incredibly arbitrary to me. It's just another "he was good except when he wasn't" arbitrary-endpoint fallacy.

 

Either we take the data as a whole or we need to parse it down in a less biased manner, not intentionally slicing out when he was at his worst.

 

For example, it's hard to make an upward-trend case when July was his worst month outside of April (and possibly worse than April if BABIP is taken into account). He was awful in April, decent in May, unbelievable in June, bad in July, and good to date in August.

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That still seems incredibly arbitrary to me. It's just another "he was good except when he wasn't" arbitrary-endpoint fallacy.

 

Either we take the data as a whole or we need to parse it down in a less biased manner, not intentionally slicing out when he was at his worst.

 

For example, it's hard to make an upward-trend case when July was his worst month outside of April (and possibly worse than April if BABIP is taken into account). He was awful in April, decent in May, unbelievable in June, bad in July, and good to date in August.

 

It would be an issue if you were talking about whether or not a guy earned his paycheck, or when comparing players. At the end of the year, what matters is Lee's numbers for the season, not his numbers discounting April. But when you are talking about a 24 year old who needs to develop, it can be informative to point out that after a horrid start, he has been better. There's nothing arbitrary about it.

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It would be an issue if you were talking about whether or not a guy earned his paycheck, or when comparing players. At the end of the year, what matters is Lee's numbers for the season, not his numbers discounting April. But when you are talking about a 24 year old who needs to develop, it can be informative to point out that after a horrid start, he has been better. There's nothing arbitrary about it.

 

Why would you assume that just because he's 24 years old, when his stats have normal random fluctuations, that it must mean something?

 

Every player has good months and bad months. The fact that one of his bad months was in April doesn't automatically mean that he's learned something since then.

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It would be an issue if you were talking about whether or not a guy earned his paycheck, or when comparing players. At the end of the year, what matters is Lee's numbers for the season, not his numbers discounting April. But when you are talking about a 24 year old who needs to develop, it can be informative to point out that after a horrid start, he has been better. There's nothing arbitrary about it.

 

Why would you assume that just because he's 24 years old, when his stats have normal random fluctuations, that it must mean something?

 

Every player has good months and bad months. The fact that one of his bad months was in April doesn't automatically mean that he's learned something since then.

 

I don't think anybody said it automatically means something. I think it shows a trend that can be considered positive. He's 24, which means he hasn't peaked and there is reason to have some hope for him to improve. Having a crappy April and better rest of the season is a good thing for him.

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That still seems incredibly arbitrary to me. It's just another "he was good except when he wasn't" arbitrary-endpoint fallacy.

 

Either we take the data as a whole or we need to parse it down in a less biased manner, not intentionally slicing out when he was at his worst.

 

For example, it's hard to make an upward-trend case when July was his worst month outside of April (and possibly worse than April if BABIP is taken into account). He was awful in April, decent in May, unbelievable in June, bad in July, and good to date in August.

 

First - not necessarily an arbitrary endpoint fallacy (is that even a thing?). I imagine he used the first of May as the starting point as a matter of convenience. I find it hard to believe that raw calculated the exact start date which made Pie's numbers look the best and used that.

 

Second - he's not hiding anything or making broad conclusions. It's an observation that has some merit. But the post clearly indicates that his April sucked. So maybe he got better with regular ABs, made some adjustments, etc. Maybe it's random and he'll suck in September. The info is there for the reader to analyze.

 

Finally - it's not difficult to make an upward trend case b/c he had a bad month in the middle. A trend wouldn't have to mean he literally improves every month. Besides, the months are arbitrary slices of ABs, so maybe sliced in different ways, a more clear upward trend would become clear. Either way, the point seems to be that he could end the year with respectable numbers despite a putrid start.

 

But I think you know all this, so I'm not sure what you're arguing against. Maybe you're just bored.

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