Juan "groundout to second" Pierre wants out

[fromthestretch]

And grassbass showed that this rushing has gotten Juan 1(maybe 2) extra base compared to an average baserunner.

this is a case where using conventional methods (i.e. actually watching) rather than stats probably wins. that or just using simple logic, of course.

 

What about infield singles?

 

He's obviously not getting enough of those, considering his OBP has been in the .330s or lower the past three years. Also, extra-base hits are more valuable than infield singles. Even a single to the outfield is more valuable, as it could give a runner from second a better chance to score.

[SouthSideRyan]

And grassbass showed that this rushing has gotten Juan 1(maybe 2) extra base compared to an average baserunner.

this is a case where using conventional methods (i.e. actually watching) rather than stats probably wins. that or just using simple logic, of course.

 

What about infield singles?

 

Infield singles count as hits.

[CarolinaCubFan]

And grassbass showed that this rushing has gotten Juan 1(maybe 2) extra base compared to an average baserunner.

this is a case where using conventional methods (i.e. actually watching) rather than stats probably wins. that or just using simple logic, of course.

 

What about infield singles?

 

He's obviously not getting enough of those, considering his OBP has been in the .330s or lower the past three years. Also, extra-base hits are more valuable than infield singles. Even a single to the outfield is more valuable, as it could give a runner from second a better chance to score.

 

I hear what you are saying.

 

There is plenty not to like about Pierres game, but when he's on base, albeit at a .330 clip, the defense has to take notice.

 

IMHO, speed is a valuable tool to have.

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

Pierre is actually a quintuplet with Bourne and Gathright. The other two are Alex Sanchez and Willy Taveras.

 

Rajai Davis and Nyjer Morgan cuertainly would have to join that family.

 

Willie Wilson fathered them all and Ced Landrum is a distant cousin.

[Tracer Bullet]

not that i have any special affection for the guy, but it's puzzling how if somebody speaks ill of say, mark bellhorn, droves of people come in to defend him, but pierre, who's actually had a reasonably productive MLB career in comparison, gets piled on mercilessly

 

I'm not remembering how we acquired Bellhorn, but I don't think it was for 3 prospects, at least 2 of which have had some success in the majors for Florida (Mitre may be nothing, but he was roughly league average for a year in '07). For whatever success JP has had in the majors, he had 700 pretty brutal ABs for us.

Yeah, the prospect we gave up for Bellhorn never made it to the majors. And Bellhorn wasn't a slap hitter with a low OBP like Pierre.

~ league average = low?

 

ricky nolasco would have been traded for crap the likes of Garrett Olson or Andy Pratt long before he ever developed, had we kept him.

 

I'm not sure if this is directed at me, but I assume so. Mitre's ERA+ (disclaimers, whatever) was 93 in '07. Seems "roughly league average" to me.

 

And I don't really want to re-open the huge discussion this place had about the value of the 3 prospects given up for Pierre. The thread is back there somewhere if you want to find it. They had some value at the time. Some of us thought they were worth more than JP (some of us thought 2 or even 1 of them > JP). Others disagreed. But the fact that Nolasco was good last year, even if it was years after the trade, makes it seem worse to many fans, I imagine (btw - someone here - I want to say TT - was really high on 1 of these 3 and I want to say it was Nolasco; there were probably others, but I seem to recall TT really pushing Nolasco back in the day).

[CarolinaCubFan]

And grassbass showed that this rushing has gotten Juan 1(maybe 2) extra base compared to an average baserunner.

this is a case where using conventional methods (i.e. actually watching) rather than stats probably wins. that or just using simple logic, of course.

 

What about infield singles?

 

Infield singles count as hits.

 

Thanks. I'm just saying Juan has legged out slap hits, that Aram would be thrown out on.

[cubbinalltheway]

And grassbass showed that this rushing has gotten Juan 1(maybe 2) extra base compared to an average baserunner.

this is a case where using conventional methods (i.e. actually watching) rather than stats probably wins. that or just using simple logic, of course.

 

I'll just repeat some of that simple logic then:

 

Juan Pierre ground balls: Reached on error 56 times out of 2503 possibilites.

 

Aramis Ramirez ground balls: Reached on error 49 times out of 1548 chances.

but you don't know why those errors occurred. you cant just look at raw data like that and make that conclusion. other than going back and looking at every error, it's impossible to tell why the error was committed. and thus impossible to say that pierre's speed doesn't have an effect on the defender. which is why i just suggested that fundamental logic (crazy, i know) might be a better way of coming to a conclusion here. that fundamental logic of course being, when a defender knows he has 4 seconds until the batter reaches first base versus three seconds, he'll react accordingly.

[fromthestretch]

And grassbass showed that this rushing has gotten Juan 1(maybe 2) extra base compared to an average baserunner.

this is a case where using conventional methods (i.e. actually watching) rather than stats probably wins. that or just using simple logic, of course.

 

What about infield singles?

 

He's obviously not getting enough of those, considering his OBP has been in the .330s or lower the past three years. Also, extra-base hits are more valuable than infield singles. Even a single to the outfield is more valuable, as it could give a runner from second a better chance to score.

 

I hear what you are saying.

 

There is plenty not to like about Pierres game, but when he's on base, albeit at a .330 clip, the defense has to take notice.

 

IMHO, speed is a valuable tool to have.

 

I agree that speed can be a valuable tool to have. However, when you're not on-base enough to use it, it's not nearly as valuable.

 

I don't necessarily agree that the defense always has to take notice when he's on base. Greg Maddux essentially ignored baserunners for his entire career. At the Major League level, I don't think a fast baserunner rattles the defense and pitchers as much as people want to believe it does. At the lower levels, it can certainly play a bigger role.

[fromthestretch]

And grassbass showed that this rushing has gotten Juan 1(maybe 2) extra base compared to an average baserunner.

this is a case where using conventional methods (i.e. actually watching) rather than stats probably wins. that or just using simple logic, of course.

 

I'll just repeat some of that simple logic then:

 

Juan Pierre ground balls: Reached on error 56 times out of 2503 possibilites.

 

Aramis Ramirez ground balls: Reached on error 49 times out of 1548 chances.

but you don't know why those errors occurred. you cant just look at raw data like that and make that conclusion. other than going back and looking at every error, it's impossible to tell why the error was committed. and thus impossible to say that pierre's speed doesn't have an effect on the defender. which is why i just suggested that fundamental logic (crazy, i know) might be a better way of coming to a conclusion here. that fundamental logic of course being, when a defender knows he has 4 seconds until the batter reaches first base versus three seconds, he'll react accordingly.

 

You're missing the point. Regardless of why or how the error took place, he's not causing a higher rate of errors than a hitter with less speed.

[SouthSideRyan]

Aramis is just really lucky I guess.

[fromthestretch]

And grassbass showed that this rushing has gotten Juan 1(maybe 2) extra base compared to an average baserunner.

this is a case where using conventional methods (i.e. actually watching) rather than stats probably wins. that or just using simple logic, of course.

 

What about infield singles?

 

Infield singles count as hits.

 

Thanks. I'm just saying Juan has legged out slap hits, that Aram would be thrown out on.

 

But Ramirez hits for much more power and - at least in the past four seasons - gets on base at a higher rate. Those qualities are much better than a handful of infield singles.

[cubbinalltheway]

And grassbass showed that this rushing has gotten Juan 1(maybe 2) extra base compared to an average baserunner.

this is a case where using conventional methods (i.e. actually watching) rather than stats probably wins. that or just using simple logic, of course.

 

I'll just repeat some of that simple logic then:

 

Juan Pierre ground balls: Reached on error 56 times out of 2503 possibilites.

 

Aramis Ramirez ground balls: Reached on error 49 times out of 1548 chances.

but you don't know why those errors occurred. you cant just look at raw data like that and make that conclusion. other than going back and looking at every error, it's impossible to tell why the error was committed. and thus impossible to say that pierre's speed doesn't have an effect on the defender. which is why i just suggested that fundamental logic (crazy, i know) might be a better way of coming to a conclusion here. that fundamental logic of course being, when a defender knows he has 4 seconds until the batter reaches first base versus three seconds, he'll react accordingly.

 

You're missing the point. Regardless of why or how the error took place, he's not causing a higher rate of errors than a hitter with less speed.

you don't know that. for all you know, all 56 of the times that pierre reached on an error could've been caused by his speed. obviously at the same time, none of the 56 could have been caused by his speed. point is, we just don't know. so when you look at stats to determine if his speed has an effect, and the stats don't give you a clear answer... and i know this board is absurdly stat-heavy (vs. scouting)... but don't you think it's time to just stop and think for a moment about the logical answer?

[dew1679666265]

you don't know that. for all you know, all 56 of the times that pierre reached on an error could've been caused by his speed. obviously at the same time, none of the 56 could have been caused by his speed. point is, we just don't know. so when you look at stats to determine if his speed has an effect, and the stats don't give you a clear answer... and i know this board is absurdly stat-heavy (vs. scouting)... but don't you think it's time to just stop and think for a moment about the logical answer?

 

I think he's making more the point that even if his speed made a difference, it didn't make enough of one to make him productive. If he was a highly productive player and his speed made him that much more, great. But as it stands, Pierre wasn't particularly productive with or without his speed aiding him.

[fromthestretch]

And grassbass showed that this rushing has gotten Juan 1(maybe 2) extra base compared to an average baserunner.

this is a case where using conventional methods (i.e. actually watching) rather than stats probably wins. that or just using simple logic, of course.

 

I'll just repeat some of that simple logic then:

 

Juan Pierre ground balls: Reached on error 56 times out of 2503 possibilites.

 

Aramis Ramirez ground balls: Reached on error 49 times out of 1548 chances.

but you don't know why those errors occurred. you cant just look at raw data like that and make that conclusion. other than going back and looking at every error, it's impossible to tell why the error was committed. and thus impossible to say that pierre's speed doesn't have an effect on the defender. which is why i just suggested that fundamental logic (crazy, i know) might be a better way of coming to a conclusion here. that fundamental logic of course being, when a defender knows he has 4 seconds until the batter reaches first base versus three seconds, he'll react accordingly.

 

You're missing the point. Regardless of why or how the error took place, he's not causing a higher rate of errors than a hitter with less speed.

you don't know that. for all you know, all 56 of the times that pierre reached on an error could've been caused by his speed. obviously at the same time, none of the 56 could have been caused by his speed. point is, we just don't know. so when you look at stats to determine if his speed has an effect, and the stats don't give you a clear answer... and i know this board is absurdly stat-heavy (vs. scouting)... but don't you think it's time to just stop and think for a moment about the logical answer?

 

Take a look at the numbers posted earlier:

 

Juan Pierre ground balls: Reached on error 56 times out of 2503 possibilites.

Aramis Ramirez ground balls: Reached on error 49 times out of 1548 chances.

 

Juan Pierre reached on an error in 2.2% of the chances he could have reached on an error. Ramirez reached on an error 3.2% of the time he could have reached on an error. In other words, a much slower runner reached on an error more frequently than Pierre. Whether all 56 times were caused by Pierre's speed, questionable scoring by the official scorer, night blindness by the fielder, or simply God's will, he's still not reaching on an error as often as a slower runner. Therefore, what good is it that his speed is causing throws to be rushed when it's not causing him to reach base more often than a slower runner?

[CarolinaCubFan]

And grassbass showed that this rushing has gotten Juan 1(maybe 2) extra base compared to an average baserunner.

this is a case where using conventional methods (i.e. actually watching) rather than stats probably wins. that or just using simple logic, of course.

 

What about infield singles?

 

He's obviously not getting enough of those, considering his OBP has been in the .330s or lower the past three years. Also, extra-base hits are more valuable than infield singles. Even a single to the outfield is more valuable, as it could give a runner from second a better chance to score.

 

I hear what you are saying.

 

There is plenty not to like about Pierres game, but when he's on base, albeit at a .330 clip, the defense has to take notice.

 

IMHO, speed is a valuable tool to have.

 

I agree that speed can be a valuable tool to have. However, when you're not on-base enough to use it, it's not nearly as valuable.

 

I don't necessarily agree that the defense always has to take notice when he's on base. Greg Maddux essentially ignored baserunners for his entire career. At the Major League level, I don't think a fast baserunner rattles the defense and pitchers as much as people want to believe it does. At the lower levels, it can certainly play a bigger role.

 

For every Greg Maddux, there are 10 "lesser" pitchers.

[CarolinaCubFan]

Aramis is just really lucky I guess.

 

He might hit the ball a little harder than Juan, could be one variable.

[cubbinalltheway]

Take a look at the numbers posted earlier:

 

Juan Pierre ground balls: Reached on error 56 times out of 2503 possibilites.

Aramis Ramirez ground balls: Reached on error 49 times out of 1548 chances.

 

Juan Pierre reached on an error in 2.2% of the chances he could have reached on an error. Ramirez reached on an error 3.2% of the time he could have reached on an error. In other words, a much slower runner reached on an error more frequently than Pierre. Whether all 56 times were caused by Pierre's speed, questionable scoring by the official scorer, night blindness by the fielder, or simply God's will, he's still not reaching on an error as often as a slower runner. Therefore, what good is it that his speed is causing throws to be rushed when it's not causing him to reach base more often than a slower runner?

conceded.

[fromthestretch]

And grassbass showed that this rushing has gotten Juan 1(maybe 2) extra base compared to an average baserunner.

this is a case where using conventional methods (i.e. actually watching) rather than stats probably wins. that or just using simple logic, of course.

 

What about infield singles?

 

He's obviously not getting enough of those, considering his OBP has been in the .330s or lower the past three years. Also, extra-base hits are more valuable than infield singles. Even a single to the outfield is more valuable, as it could give a runner from second a better chance to score.

 

I hear what you are saying.

 

There is plenty not to like about Pierres game, but when he's on base, albeit at a .330 clip, the defense has to take notice.

 

IMHO, speed is a valuable tool to have.

 

I agree that speed can be a valuable tool to have. However, when you're not on-base enough to use it, it's not nearly as valuable.

 

I don't necessarily agree that the defense always has to take notice when he's on base. Greg Maddux essentially ignored baserunners for his entire career. At the Major League level, I don't think a fast baserunner rattles the defense and pitchers as much as people want to believe it does. At the lower levels, it can certainly play a bigger role.

 

For every Greg Maddux, there are 10 "lesser" pitchers.

 

The point is that you can have a successful (and in Maddux's case, dominant) career without worrying about how fast the guy on base is. These are Major League players. They play at the highest level of competition the sport has to offer. They don't suddenly panic because Joey Gathright is on first base or because Juan Pierre hit a ground ball at them. You can be aware of the runner's or hitter's speed without it taking away from your focus.

[CarolinaCubFan]

And grassbass showed that this rushing has gotten Juan 1(maybe 2) extra base compared to an average baserunner.

this is a case where using conventional methods (i.e. actually watching) rather than stats probably wins. that or just using simple logic, of course.

 

What about infield singles?

 

He's obviously not getting enough of those, considering his OBP has been in the .330s or lower the past three years. Also, extra-base hits are more valuable than infield singles. Even a single to the outfield is more valuable, as it could give a runner from second a better chance to score.

 

I hear what you are saying.

 

There is plenty not to like about Pierres game, but when he's on base, albeit at a .330 clip, the defense has to take notice.

 

IMHO, speed is a valuable tool to have.

 

I agree that speed can be a valuable tool to have. However, when you're not on-base enough to use it, it's not nearly as valuable.

 

I don't necessarily agree that the defense always has to take notice when he's on base. Greg Maddux essentially ignored baserunners for his entire career. At the Major League level, I don't think a fast baserunner rattles the defense and pitchers as much as people want to believe it does. At the lower levels, it can certainly play a bigger role.

 

For every Greg Maddux, there are 10 "lesser" pitchers.

 

The point is that you can have a successful (and in Maddux's case, dominant) career without worrying about how fast the guy on base is. These are Major League players. They play at the highest level of competition the sport has to offer. They don't suddenly panic because Joey Gathright is on first base or because Juan Pierre hit a ground ball at them. You can be aware of the runner's or hitter's speed without it taking away from your focus.

 

Really? I would start typing names that don't fit that mold, but I understand what you are saying.

 

Speed is a factor that multiple variables are involved, yet most stats people use just seem to throw speed into the category of no impact. I have a hard time swallowing that pill.

[SouthSideRyan]

Aramis is just really lucky I guess.

 

He might hit the ball a little harder than Juan, could be one variable.

 

I considered that, but it also means the ball gets to the fielder faster giving them more time. Juan's little dribblers off the sweet spot make the fielder rush more than a solid grounder 1 step to the right of the 3B.

[CarolinaCubFan]

Aramis is just really lucky I guess.

 

He might hit the ball a little harder than Juan, could be one variable.

 

I considered that, but it also means the ball gets to the fielder faster giving them more time. Juan's little dribblers off the sweet spot make the fielder rush more than a solid grounder 1 step to the right of the 3B.

 

Agreed, but that solid grounder 1 step to the right at 3B can just as easily take a bad hop and dribble 30ft away.

[Rob]

I love seeing the argument that speed on first base distracts the pitcher. Studies have shown that it distracts the batter too, generally causing them to do worse (though not by a terribly significant amount).

 

The bulk of the value in speed comes from taking the extra base on a hit, and in extended fielding range. Net SB value is usually quite low, even for the most prolific of baserunners. Speed can certainly be a valuable tool for a player to have. But it is a secondary tool... closer in value to crowding the plate and being able to get a bunt down than it is to hitting or fielding in all but the most extreme of circumstances.

[CarolinaCubFan]

I love seeing the argument that speed on first base distracts the pitcher. Studies have shown that it distracts the batter too, generally causing them to do worse (though not by a terribly significant amount).

 

The bulk of the value in speed comes from taking the extra base on a hit, and in extended fielding range. Net SB value is usually quite low, even for the most prolific of baserunners. Speed can certainly be a valuable tool for a player to have. But it is a secondary tool... closer in value to crowding the plate and being able to get a bunt down than it is to hitting or fielding in all but the most extreme of circumstances.

 

Can you hook me up with some links? I'd love to read this.

 

Not really saying a SB is high in value, rather speed has value on the basepaths.

[Mephistopheles]

Personally, I don't think it really has a distracting effect on the hitter. The differences in the numbers are probably largely a combination of two things (though there's no way to test either of them with any accuracy).

 

1.) Managers tell their hitters in the two hole, or their crappy hitters to be more patient when a stolen base threat is on.

2.) Pure hit and runs and safe hit and runs put hitters at a disadvantage.

 

Obviously there probably is an effect subconsciously to hitter, but there are things working consistently against his favor that he has no control over. Then again we'd expect him to more fastballs, have more opposite field holes to hit in and that in general more ABs come against crappy pitchers with stolen base threats on (because crappy pitchers let batters on first more frequently!) So things are pulling both ways. I think its a washfor all practical purposes myself.

[Guest]

I love seeing the argument that speed on first base distracts the pitcher. Studies have shown that it distracts the batter too, generally causing them to do worse (though not by a terribly significant amount).

 

The bulk of the value in speed comes from taking the extra base on a hit, and in extended fielding range. Net SB value is usually quite low, even for the most prolific of baserunners. Speed can certainly be a valuable tool for a player to have. But it is a secondary tool... closer in value to crowding the plate and being able to get a bunt down than it is to hitting or fielding in all but the most extreme of circumstances.

 

Can you hook me up with some links? I'd love to read this.

 

Not really saying a SB is high in value, rather speed has value on the basepaths.

 

What, Juan Pierre's 9m butt riding the pine isn't enough evidence? :yahoo: