Adam Dunn to the Nationals per XM 175...

[Transmogrified Tiger]

llie

Bradley for 3 years and 30 million is a great deal.

 

That completely depends on how healthy he is. If he plays half of each season' date=' is that still a great deal?[/quote']

 

In 2006 and 2007 combined, Bradley played 157 games and was worth about $19.9 million dollars. Link

 

Are we still using that? This is the same formula that said Willie Harris was worth 14.6 mil last year.

 

Not to mention he's almost certainly not going to have a .999 OPS here.

 

 

Bradley had an .865 OPS in '06 and '07. Also, his value is tied to offense much, much, much more than Willie Harris, and there's much, much, much less room for debate with how accurate the offensive metrics are in measuring value.

[17 Seconds]

llie

Bradley for 3 years and 30 million is a great deal.

 

That completely depends on how healthy he is. If he plays half of each season' date=' is that still a great deal?[/quote']

 

In 2006 and 2007 combined, Bradley played 157 games and was worth about $19.9 million dollars. Link

 

Are we still using that? This is the same formula that said Willie Harris was worth 14.6 mil last year.

 

Not to mention he's almost certainly not going to have a .999 OPS here.

 

 

Bradley had an .865 OPS in '06 and '07. Also, his value is tied to offense much, much, much more than Willie Harris, and there's much, much, much less room for debate with how accurate the offensive metrics are in measuring value.

 

The Harris number is still an indication of how flawed that stat is on fangraphs. I don't get why people keep using it as a basis for an argument. All the numbers seem highly inflated.

 

But anyways, that 19.9 million figure you came up with is largely in part to him having a .999 OPS last season and a mid .900's OPS in a small amount of ABs the previous season. I think we're more likely looking at an OPS around .900 this season. I thihk people get so caught up in the health/mental questions that they forget that this guy is no guarantee to rake. I think he will be, but I'm not entirely confident. His career numbers are all over the place, even considering bad ballparks.

[The Other 15]

Winning 2 divisions doesn't make a guy exempt from criticism though, especially when the first one of those was an 85 win team that only snuck into the playoffs because of an awful division.

 

It kind of goes along when people said we couldn't criticize Dusty because "he's a 3 time MOY and you guys are just kids on the internet".... or saying we can't criticize George Bush because he's the president and we're not.

 

Plus Hendry has had a ton of resources to work with. I don't see how anything he's done has earned him the right to be exempt from criticism on individual moves.

Plus Hendry has had a ton of resources to work with. I don't see how anything he's done has earned him the right to be exempt from criticism on individual moves.

He's had resources and he's made them work. Everyone bitched about Marquises contract for two years. Until he left. Then it magically morphed into a good contract that he shouldn't have been quick to move. Same with DeRo. It's the same tired story. Hendry gets no credit and all the blame.

 

What Hendry as accomplished in his 6 years is very relevant in Cubs history. Name the last time you expected the Cubs to compete for the best team in the NL 3 years in a row? No WS titles, true, but you don't get a chance to win the short playoff sprint unless you win the long regular season marathon. Under his guidance, they've had 4 decent chances in 6 years. He may not be without flaws, but he certainly merits some measure of benefit of the doubt. More than most posters are willing to concede.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Everyone bitched about Marquises contract for two years. Until he left. Then it magically morphed into a good contract that he shouldn't have been quick to move.

 

That's an awful lot of wrong packed into two sentences, and some of it you are repeating despite being called on it before.

 

1) The people upset about trading Marquis and the people griping about him were often not the same people.

 

2) Almost nobody (in fact, I don't recall anyone) said that it was a good contract.

 

3) He didn't move the entire contract. He had to eat some of it.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

But anyways, that 19.9 million figure you came up with is largely in part to him having a .999 OPS last season and a mid .900's OPS in a small amount of ABs the previous season. I think we're more likely looking at an OPS around .900 this season. I thihk people get so caught up in the health/mental questions that they forget that this guy is no guarantee to rake. I think he will be, but I'm not entirely confident. His career numbers are all over the place, even considering bad ballparks.

 

Last year has nothing to do with it, that's why I told you his cumulative two year OPS was .865. I was using '06 and '07 because he combined to play 2 half seasons, was a full time outfielder, and that wasn't his career year in a hitters park playing DH like last year was.

[cubsfan26]

2) Almost nobody (in fact, I don't recall anyone) said that it was a good contract.

 

3) He didn't move the entire contract. He had to eat some of it.

 

 

I don't think people called it a good contract, it just happen to be one of the better pitching contracts signed that offseason. The Cubs didn't move Marquis total contract, but going 23-18, with a 4.43 era in 61 starts. Looks pretty good right now at 2y at 16m, plus a free year of Luis Vizcaino. I don't think anybody isn't saying Hendry should be safe from negative comments. But he deserves the benefit of the doubt a little more then he gets on here. People are almost being as critcial of this guy as we just lost 100 games last year. At some point people just need to shut it, and see what happens. Because the Cubs improved 19 games from 06-07, and improved 12 and half games from 07-08, making often simliar questionable moves. So lets see what happens, Hendry does seem on a roll the past few offseasons. So people shouldn't be surprised if some of these moves work out alot better then we expect right now.

[17 Seconds]

I don't get this "benefit of the doubt" stuff. We dsicuss whether or not we like deals based on the move itself, not on who is making them. Theo Epsteing giving Miles 2/5 would be exactly the same as Bill Bavasi giving Miles 2/5. We judge by the move, not the person making it. It just sounds like you want to give hendry a free pass. "Well this move doesn't look good, but we won 97 games last season and we got Ted Lilly the year before" while leaving out the bad moves that he's done in that time. Very few GM's earn free passes, and you're giving one to a guy who doesn't fit that description.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

I do sort of agree that some people around here tend to have short memories about how much they hated guys who ended up performing.

 

To use myself as an example, I think we were in May at least before I shut up about Cedeno/Theriot.

[17 Seconds]

I do sort of agree that some people around here tend to have short memories about how much they hated guys who ended up performing.

 

To use myself as an example, I think we were in May at least before I shut up about Cedeno/Theriot.

 

I agree, but it's worse to use that to say "well, we thought this guy woud suck and he turned out good...so maybe this guy won't suck".

[SouthSideRyan]

I do sort of agree that some people around here tend to have short memories about how much they hated guys who ended up performing.

 

To use myself as an example, I think we were in May at least before I shut up about Cedeno/Theriot.

 

You'd have been stupid to shut up about Cedeno before May considering how well he played in April.

[cubsfan26]

especially when the first one of those was an 85 win team that only snuck into the playoffs because of an awful division.

 

I guess the Cardinals 06 World Series win shouldn't really matter either. Winning the division is winning the division, if were gonna say this. Then we can say we got unlucky in 2004, winning 89 games and missing the playoffs, it doesn't work both ways. So when you factor in were we at in 06(due to injuries, Hendry/MacPhail), to how much we improved in 07 it was a successful year. Especially having one of the best records in baseball after June. People can complain all they want about Hendry moves this offseason, it still doesn't take away the fact that he has done a good job the last two years. At this time in 2007, people were assuming Mark DeRosa was gonna be a overpaid bench player, Marquis was gonna have a 5 or 6 era, Lilly was gonna be a overpaid number 4. So I think people should maybe stop assuming so much and thinking their opinion is right and Hendry is wrong.

[cubsfan26]

I don't get this "benefit of the doubt" stuff. We dsicuss whether or not we like deals based on the move itself, not on who is making them. Theo Epsteing giving Miles 2/5 would be exactly the same as Bill Bavasi giving Miles 2/5. We judge by the move, not the person making it. It just sounds like you want to give hendry a free pass

 

 

Whats the going rate for a back up infielder? Gm's pay players what they demand that year. If you need a veteran back up infielder, thats what they cost this offseason. Not to be rude but people complaining about Aaron Miles and 2.2m he makes next year have too much time on their hands to complain. Miles salary has very little impact on our team as a whole. Thats the guy Hendry wanted for the bench, he will help the team. If you don't like his salary and think he's getting paid 1m too much. Well that sucks, but thats the market for back up middle infielders.

 

"Well this move doesn't look good, but we won 97 games last season and we got Ted Lilly the year before" while leaving out the bad moves that he's done in that time. Very few GM's earn free passes, and you're giving one to a guy who doesn't fit that description.

 

When did I say Hendry deserved a free pass? The fact that people are still complaining about some of these moves right now shows Hendry got nothing but a free pass. There's a difference from a guy getting a free pass, then getting bashed. Hendry is almost getting bashed, for some of the moves this offseason. People have given their opinion of these moves months ago when they happen. There comes a point for people to just be quiet, and see if Hendry is smarter then us again or not. Guess what there are gonna be some bargin aging corner outfielders signed this offseason for not alot of money. So lets compare what there getting paid to Aaron Miles, and bash Hendry. =D>

Edited February 12, 2009 by cubsfan26

[17 Seconds]

especially when the first one of those was an 85 win team that only snuck into the playoffs because of an awful division.

 

I guess the Cardinals 06 World Series win shouldn't really matter either. Winning the division is winning the division, if were gonna say this. Then we can say we got unlucky in 2004, winning 89 games and missing the playoffs, it doesn't work both ways. So when you factor in were we at in 06(due to injuries, Hendry/MacPhail), to how much we improved in 07 it was a successful year. Especially having one of the best records in baseball after June. People can complain all they want about Hendry moves this offseason, it still doesn't take away the fact that he has done a good job the last two years. At this time in 2007, people were assuming Mark DeRosa was gonna be a overpaid bench player, Marquis was gonna have a 5 or 6 era, Lilly was gonna be a overpaid number 4. So I think people should maybe stop assuming so much and thinking their opinion is right and Hendry is wrong.

 

Yes, I think it would be equally silly to praise a GM for assembling an 83 win team in an awful division that won the World Series. Hendry has a huge payroll and won 85 games in a terrible division. That's nice and all, but using it as an argument of why we should give him the benefit of the doubt? Come on.

 

really you're missing the point though. I'm not even trashing Hendry. He has done a nice job over the past couple season. My point is that I think it's dumb to give him a free pass because of that, and for us to just look the other way on moves we don't agree with this offseason because we were great last year and has made some good moves recently. That's silly to me. I don't care what HGM made the moves this offseason, I care about the moves themselves, and I don't like them. Could they end up being good, and could I end up being wrong? Sure. All I'm saying is right now I think the offseason wasn't very good. This is an internet message board. If you don't want to listen to people complain about what looks to be a below average offseason, then it's probably best not to read it. All I know is I'd rather project the moves based on what I think about them than just give them a free pass. That's just as bad, or worse, than people who are criticizing just for the sake of criticizing.

[17 Seconds]

I don't get this "benefit of the doubt" stuff. We dsicuss whether or not we like deals based on the move itself, not on who is making them. Theo Epsteing giving Miles 2/5 would be exactly the same as Bill Bavasi giving Miles 2/5. We judge by the move, not the person making it. It just sounds like you want to give hendry a free pass

 

 

Whats the going rate for a back up infielder? Gm's pay players what they demand that year. If you need a veteran back up infielder, thats what they cost this offseason. Not to be rude but people complaining about Aaron Miles and 2.2m he makes next year have too much time on their hands to complain. Miles salary has very little impact on our team as a whole. Thats the guy Hendry wanted for the bench, he will help the team. If you don't like his salary and think he's getting paid 1m too much. Well that sucks, but thats the market for back up middle infielders.

 

What is worse...complaing about moves... or complaining about people making those complaints on an internet message board? In the offseason you generally discuss offseason moves. If you are upset with people criticizing moves and our beloved GM, ignore them. Nobody is forcing you to read it.

 

Also, the going rate for backup infielders are one year contracts, not 2 years. The 2 years is what makes it looks bad.

[cubbinalltheway]

I don't get this "benefit of the doubt" stuff. We dsicuss whether or not we like deals based on the move itself, not on who is making them. Theo Epsteing giving Miles 2/5 would be exactly the same as Bill Bavasi giving Miles 2/5. We judge by the move, not the person making it. It just sounds like you want to give hendry a free pass

 

 

Whats the going rate for a back up infielder? Gm's pay players what they demand that year. If you need a veteran back up infielder, thats what they cost this offseason. Not to be rude but people complaining about Aaron Miles and 2.2m he makes next year have too much time on their hands to complain. Miles salary has very little impact on our team as a whole. Thats the guy Hendry wanted for the bench, he will help the team. If you don't like his salary and think he's getting paid 1m too much. Well that sucks, but thats the market for back up middle infielders.

 

What is worse...complaing about moves... or complaining about people making those complaints on an internet message board? In the offseason you generally discuss offseason moves. If you are upset with people criticizing moves and our beloved GM, ignore them. Nobody is forcing you to read it.

 

Also, the going rate for backup infielders are one year contracts, not 2 years. The 2 years is what makes it looks bad.

what's the big deal about the second year? if he only signed miles to a one year deal, he would've just signed another backup infielder the following offseason.

[cubsfan26]

Hendry has a huge payroll and won 85 games in a terrible division. That's nice and all, but using it as an argument of why we should give him the benefit of the doubt? Come on.

 

The payroll wasn't huge in 07, and is it Hendry fault the team underachieved so much the first two months of the season? He put the same roster on the field in April and May when the Cubs were 7-9 games under 500. Then the team that had one of the best records in baseball from June to the end of the year. When you have a new manager, and a bunch of new players. Sometimes it takes a little while to figure everything out. I know that might sound like a excuse, and the record was still 85 wins. But that year we had two different teams IMO. The bad team in April/May, and the good team from June on, that often played like he did in 08.

 

It's an internet message board. What is worse...complaing about moves... or complaining about people who makes those complaints on an internet message board? In the offseason you generally discuss offseason moves.

 

I agree my comments aren't making this convo go away. So you're making a pretty good point. But it comes to a point when you see a few pages complaining about Aaron Miles and comparing contracts to Bobby Abreu, and I'm just like come on. Plus people can only complain about a move so long IMO. I'm fine with people expressing their opinion, but it can go overboard when there still bashing a move months later, and bringing up other contracts to bash a move again. At some point you just need to sit back and see how the move works out. If Miles somehow hits like he did last year for the next two seasons, people won't be bashing that deal nearly as much. People wouldn't be praising Hendry for months, if he signed Bradley to a 1y 1.5m deal. They would say it was a good signing, great bargin, but after a few days that would be the end of it. When they don't like a move, it gets brought up over and over again.

 

 

People act like they can see in the future, and already know this or that is gonna happen for sure when their bashing a move. There's a difference in saying they dislike a move, then doing that IMO. For example I don't like the Mark DeRosa move, I expressed that before. But now I'm at the point were I'm just gonna see how it works out. If Fontenot sucks, and the depth sucks then I will be bashing Hendry. After Hendry success the last two years, I'll give him the benefit of the doubt. But If he's wrong then I think Hendry deserves a ton of blame, and thats the time for these comments.

[javy knows my name]

If Miles somehow gets enough at-bats to have a CHANCE to repeat last year's, barring catastrophic injuries to the entire outfield, I'm going to be very upset.

[treebird]

But anyways, that 19.9 million figure you came up with is largely in part to him having a .999 OPS last season and a mid .900's OPS in a small amount of ABs the previous season. I think we're more likely looking at an OPS around .900 this season. I thihk people get so caught up in the health/mental questions that they forget that this guy is no guarantee to rake. I think he will be, but I'm not entirely confident. His career numbers are all over the place, even considering bad ballparks.

 

Last year has nothing to do with it, that's why I told you his cumulative two year OPS was .865. I was using '06 and '07 because he combined to play 2 half seasons, was a full time outfielder, and that wasn't his career year in a hitters park playing DH like last year was.

 

i don't know how much i like a system that says a half season of an .865 ops from a corner outfielder in worth 10 million dollars.

 

i mean, that's what we're paying him this year. if he hits 285/365/500 in 81 games, are we breaking even? of course not.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

But anyways, that 19.9 million figure you came up with is largely in part to him having a .999 OPS last season and a mid .900's OPS in a small amount of ABs the previous season. I think we're more likely looking at an OPS around .900 this season. I thihk people get so caught up in the health/mental questions that they forget that this guy is no guarantee to rake. I think he will be, but I'm not entirely confident. His career numbers are all over the place, even considering bad ballparks.

 

Last year has nothing to do with it, that's why I told you his cumulative two year OPS was .865. I was using '06 and '07 because he combined to play 2 half seasons, was a full time outfielder, and that wasn't his career year in a hitters park playing DH like last year was.

 

i don't know how much i like a system that says a half season of an .865 ops from a corner outfielder in worth 10 million dollars.

 

i mean, that's what we're paying him this year. if he hits 285/365/500 in 81 games, are we breaking even? of course not.

 

It also was bullish on his defense, but like I said, going forward you expect him to be more offensive heavy even if he doesn't OPS 1000 again or profile as a plus defender.

[Guancous]

Hendry has a huge payroll and won 85 games in a terrible division. That's nice and all, but using it as an argument of why we should give him the benefit of the doubt? Come on.

 

The payroll wasn't huge in 07, and is it Hendry fault the team underachieved so much the first two months of the season? He put the same roster on the field in April and May when the Cubs were 7-9 games under 500. Then the team that had one of the best records in baseball from June to the end of the year. When you have a new manager, and a bunch of new players. Sometimes it takes a little while to figure everything out. I know that might sound like a excuse, and the record was still 85 wins. But that year we had two different teams IMO. The bad team in April/May, and the good team from June on, that often played like he did in 08.

 

It's an internet message board. What is worse...complaing about moves... or complaining about people who makes those complaints on an internet message board? In the offseason you generally discuss offseason moves.

 

I agree my comments aren't making this convo go away. So you're making a pretty good point. But it comes to a point when you see a few pages complaining about Aaron Miles and comparing contracts to Bobby Abreu, and I'm just like come on. Plus people can only complain about a move so long IMO. I'm fine with people expressing their opinion, but it can go overboard when there still bashing a move months later, and bringing up other contracts to bash a move again. At some point you just need to sit back and see how the move works out. If Miles somehow hits like he did last year for the next two seasons, people won't be bashing that deal nearly as much. People wouldn't be praising Hendry for months, if he signed Bradley to a 1y 1.5m deal. They would say it was a good signing, great bargin, but after a few days that would be the end of it. When they don't like a move, it gets brought up over and over again.

 

 

People act like they can see in the future, and already know this or that is gonna happen for sure when their bashing a move. There's a difference in saying they dislike a move, then doing that IMO. For example I don't like the Mark DeRosa move, I expressed that before. But now I'm at the point were I'm just gonna see how it works out. If Fontenot sucks, and the depth sucks then I will be bashing Hendry. After Hendry success the last two years, I'll give him the benefit of the doubt. But If he's wrong then I think Hendry deserves a ton of blame, and thats the time for these comments.

 

Everything you said is correct. I'm a Hendry defender but I understand the calls for shenanigans. I'm praying that Fontenot/Miles+Bradley+Fukudome is more productive over a full season than DeRosa+Fukudome+Edmonds/Johnson.

 

Then again, neither Edmonds or Reed Johnson broke spring training with the Cubs. Even Hendry didn't expect Jimmy E's excellent output last year. I'll give Hendry the benefit of the doubt. That said, I'll be shocked if Miles exceeds a .700 OPS in 150 at bats. That mofo better have the best defensive year of his life.

[17 Seconds]

But anyways, that 19.9 million figure you came up with is largely in part to him having a .999 OPS last season and a mid .900's OPS in a small amount of ABs the previous season. I think we're more likely looking at an OPS around .900 this season. I thihk people get so caught up in the health/mental questions that they forget that this guy is no guarantee to rake. I think he will be, but I'm not entirely confident. His career numbers are all over the place, even considering bad ballparks.

 

Last year has nothing to do with it, that's why I told you his cumulative two year OPS was .865. I was using '06 and '07 because he combined to play 2 half seasons, was a full time outfielder, and that wasn't his career year in a hitters park playing DH like last year was.

 

Sorry, I should have read it better. My fault.

 

But that actually proves the point more... which is that fangraph statistic is extremely flawed and is pretty much garbage IMO. A half season of a mid-to-high .800's OPS corner outfielder is worth 10 million? I don't see how you can jutisfy that. In what world is a sub .900 OPS corner outfielder worth 20 million for a full season?

[sneakypower]

i don't know how much i like a system that says a half season of an .865 ops from a corner outfielder in worth 10 million dollars.

 

i mean, that's what we're paying him this year. if he hits 285/365/500 in 81 games, are we breaking even? of course not.

the key flaw in their system is it judges worth based only on FA salary. many teams can pull up guys like Kubel or Scott to be competent enough with 800+ OPS where you don't need to waste $10m on Free Agents for slightly improved production. but the FA market had been (until this year) obviously tremendously flawed, where guys like Jose Guillen can make 8 figures annually, and a team that doesn't feel they have an player in-house who can adequately play the position gets desperate enough to give out stupid contract like Jose received. that's what Bradley is being compared to. i think it's fair to say that compared to other recent FA signings we got a pretty reasonable deal.

 

it's really the only aspect of the offseason i'm happy about.

 

In what world is a sub .900 OPS corner outfielder worth 20 million for a full season?

http://l.yimg.com/a/i/us/sp/v/mlb/players_l/20080402/6154.jpg?x=65&y=85&xc=1&yc=1&wc=164&hc=215&q=100&sig=LCwAE1TFB2scz.nmPVAI3w--

[Bull]

i don't know how much i like a system that says a half season of an .865 ops from a corner outfielder in worth 10 million dollars.

 

i mean, that's what we're paying him this year. if he hits 285/365/500 in 81 games, are we breaking even? of course not.

the key flaw in their system is it judges worth based only on FA salary. many teams can pull up guys like Kubel or Scott to be competent enough with 800+ OPS where you don't need to waste $10m on Free Agents for slightly improved production. but the FA market had been (until this year) obviously tremendously flawed, where guys like Jose Guillen can make 8 figures annually, and a team that doesn't feel they have an player in-house who can adequately play the position gets desperate enough to give out stupid contract like Jose received. that's what Bradley is being compared to. i think it's fair to say that compared to other recent FA signings we got a pretty reasonable deal.

 

it's really the only aspect of the offseason i'm happy about.

 

In what world is a sub .900 OPS corner outfielder worth 20 million for a full season?

http://l.yimg.com/a/i/us/sp/v/mlb/players_l/20080402/6154.jpg?x=65&y=85&xc=1&yc=1&wc=164&hc=215&q=100&sig=LCwAE1TFB2scz.nmPVAI3w--

 

I don't know that anything really changed this year...at least not permanently. The market wasn't "flawed" it was a market. If people pay x for a service, then that service is worth x. If they no longer do then the market has changed, maybe even corrected itself. Maybe you're saying it was due for a correction, but a correction implies that a change was due and should therefore last. I think this year was a result of a) larger than normal supply, and b) the fear of what the economy will do to ticket and merch sales this year. (I think the "bad economy" is a self fulfilling prophecy - but that's another story)

 

Bottom line - we've seen a temporary market correction before and in two years guys like Jose Guillen will be making 8 figures again.

[reggiemiller rules]

This is very unique, I have seen many threads brought off topic by Adam Dunn. Now a Dunn thread being derailed by Bradley.

[17 Seconds]

 

In what world is a sub .900 OPS corner outfielder worth 20 million for a full season?

http://l.yimg.com/a/i/us/sp/v/mlb/players_l/20080402/6154.jpg?x=65&y=85&xc=1&yc=1&wc=164&hc=215&q=100&sig=LCwAE1TFB2scz.nmPVAI3w--

 

You think Soriano is worth 18 million a year?