ESPN: Cedeno & Olson Traded for Heilman (P. 4)

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Remembering Olson has pedestrian stuff makes this a little easier to take, but it's still a poor use of resources. We're making deals to get rid of Pie, Cedeno, and soon Hill, and instead of trying to get good minor league value or getting someone who can capably fill the bench spot we apparently want, we seem to be adding arms that Hendry likes under the "you can't have too many pitchers" adage. I really hope someone from Heilman/Gaudin/Wuertz/Guzman has a breakout campaign, or our bullpen is going to be stuck in "needs help but not so bad that it'll be worth the marginal upgrade for anyone but the best, and those guys cost a fortune" limbo for this year. Apologies if that quote doesn't make any sense.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Huh? Not really Wood usually started the 9th inning with nobody on base last year. He wasn't in a ton of high leverage situations, there won't be a huge difference between him and Gregg results wise.

 

Wood's leverage index was 1.73 by BP's reckoning last season, the highest on the team by a good margin. The ninth inning with nobody on base and a one-run lead is a very high-leverage situation.

 

And there is a big dropoff between what we got from Wood last season and what we can expect from Gregg.

 

Even if Marmol is the closer, he will be having a ton of 4 or 5 out saves.

 

And you know this how?

[17 Seconds]

I don't like this trade, and yes it probably didn't improve the club long term but I think people are overreacting. I don't mean the people who are saying "WTH is Hendry doing", I'm talking about the people that think that Jim Hendry's poor moves will result in the team collapsing next year.

 

Are people talking about the team collapsing? I haven't seen that.

 

 

The Cubs have made a million moves without getting any better or positioning themselves to be better in the future. That's frustrating.

 

There were some posts a few pages back saying that Hendry is going to be surprised that his team is a couple games over .500 halfway through the season.

 

I agree its frustrating though.

 

Obviously I was being kind of sarcastic, but would it really be a surprise if that ended up being true? I think most people has us at 85-90 wins right now. If we catch a few bad breaks it's not that crazy to think that they could be only slightly above average

[jersey cubs fan]

I don't like this trade, and yes it probably didn't improve the club long term but I think people are overreacting. I don't mean the people who are saying "WTH is Hendry doing", I'm talking about the people that think that Jim Hendry's poor moves will result in the team collapsing next year.

 

Are people talking about the team collapsing? I haven't seen that.

 

 

The Cubs have made a million moves without getting any better or positioning themselves to be better in the future. That's frustrating.

 

There were some posts a few pages back saying that Hendry is going to be surprised that his team is a couple games over .500 halfway through the season.

 

I agree its frustrating though.

 

I do recall that. However, that's not exactly a collapse; even if it is an exaggeration, you're talking about a 41-39 record, which is better than they were in 2007.

[jersey cubs fan]

I wouldn't get upset over Olson, he had a below avg. FB, good slider and no change-up. he projected as a #5 or long-relief, eh.

 

I'm not lamenting the loss of Olson, but what you described is what they got for him, only older, more expensive and closer to free agency.

 

Despite last year, Heilman still has a plus FB, he just lost all command of it as well as his splitter, espec. against lefties. If Olson had that FB and that 3rd pitch, he would still in Baltimore's rotation.

 

That's nice and all, but he's a long-reliever who might sneak into a 5th starter role.

[jersey cubs fan]

I really hope someone from Heilman/Gaudin/Wuertz/Guzman has a breakout campaign, or our bullpen is going to be stuck in "needs help but not so bad that it'll be worth the marginal upgrade for anyone but the best, and those guys cost a fortune" limbo for this year. Apologies if that quote doesn't make any sense.

 

I think it does make sense.

[cubsfan26]

I haven't seen anything about Stevens being involved

 

I have, he with Kevin Hart, Vitters and Olson were the main names I heard. I heard alot of teams like Archer arm as well, and have called Hendry about him already. So maybe Vitters, Marshall, Stevens, Hart, Castillo(Padres like him to) and Archer gets us Peavy still.

 

 

 

How is that funny? They better get better for 2009, because that is the only year they have a chance of getting value out of this deal. I'd find it more valuable to have a guy with upside and options shuttling between AAA and the majors than to have a 30 year old with such a mediocre resume as Heilman and no flexibility to option out if he struggles.

 

Because most of the convo lately is people complaining about Hendry making moves that didn't make us better next year. Now he trades for a guy with good stuff, who has been good 3 of the last 4 years, and people think it's the worst move ever. Adding Heilman makes the Cubs better next year. Olson was minor league depth, who was unlikely to pitch well for us next year. Chad Gaudin is probably a better option starting next year.

[SouthSideRyan]

If Marmol pitches a bunch of 5 out saves, he'll break down by the all star break.

 

Fritter fritter fritter.

[AZCub]

We have 4 set in stone SPs, and these guys fighting for the 5th spot...but in reality, we will need TWO of them to pitch well as starters because it is very, very doubtful that Harden is throwing every time up in the rotation - he's going to have some extra rest days.

 

Acquiring Peavy alleviated some of that concern...Marshall and Gaudin and Shark fighting for spot starts. Now we have them, plus Heilman, fighting for a rotation spot and then the spot starts.

 

It helps us with depth, but it puts more pressure on those gentlemen to perform as good starting pitchers instead of occasional swingmen. That's a big difference.

[davearm2]

Sure is a lot of love for Garrett Olson on here all of a sudden.

 

Haven't seen anyone mention that Heilman could wind up a Type A FA and land the Cubs two high picks in the 2010 draft. IIRC Heilman was in the Type A range on this year's list.

[jersey cubs fan]

Because most of the convo lately is people complaining about Hendry making moves that didn't make us better next year. Now he trades for a guy with good stuff, who has been good 3 of the last 4 years, and people think it's the worst move ever.

 

He may have okay stuff, but it's nothing special, and his numbers after many years, games and innings pitched are unimpressive. And no, people don't think it's the worst move ever.

[17 Seconds]

I haven't seen anything about Stevens being involved

 

I have, he with Kevin Hart, Vitters and Olson were the main names I heard.

 

We've heard spculation about what the Padres might want, which is basically just a guess. How many names have we actually heard mentioned, and how many of those are the Padres actually interested in? It's all just guessing and even making things up. We know they were interested in Olson. We have no idea if they were interested in Stevens.

[UK1679666180]

I wouldn't get upset over Olson, he had a below avg. FB, good slider and no change-up. he projected as a #5 or long-relief, eh.

 

I'm not lamenting the loss of Olson, but what you described is what they got for him, only older, more expensive and closer to free agency.

 

Despite last year, Heilman still has a plus FB, he just lost all command of it as well as his splitter, espec. against lefties. If Olson had that FB and that 3rd pitch, he would still in Baltimore's rotation.

 

That's nice and all, but he's a long-reliever who might sneak into a 5th starter role.

 

Heilman is more likely to end up in the 7th inning than Olson was to have made the roster and Heilman is more likely to become a productive starter based on what I had mentioned compared to Olson, which is more than nice it provides valid reasoning as to why I expect Heilman to outproduce Olson throughout their careers.

[shnsajax]

Sure is a lot of love for Garrett Olson on here all of a sudden.

 

Haven't seen anyone mention that Heilman could wind up a Type A FA and land the Cubs two high picks in the 2010 draft. IIRC Heilman was in the Type A range on this year's list.

 

I thought that was going away after this coming draft.

[Banedon]

Awful. Peavy to Seattle.

 

That sounds like a move Peavy would agree to....yup.

[SouthSideRyan]

I don't think Heilman is a fa after this season. Besides, we're just gonna roll over the Kerry Wood draft pick from this year into the 2010 draft. Plus we'll have DeRosa's draft pick next year. No need to load up on them.

[AZCub]

Awful. Peavy to Seattle.

 

That sounds like a move Peavy would agree to....yup.

 

Because I meant that seriously...yeah.

 

 

The only possibility here that MIGHT make more sense is the Padres want Marshall instead of Olson...and Heilman is replacing Marshall.

 

Eternal optimism is a disease rampant in Chicago born suckers like me.

[UMFan83]

Our rotation as of now is Zambrano, Lilly, Dempster, Harden. With 2 swingmen and 1 starter out of the group of Heilman, Marshall, Samardizja, Guzman and Gaudin. Then the rest of the staff is filled out by Wuertz, Gregg, Marmol, Vizcaino. I’m sorry but I like the fact we have 5 guys to fight for the 5th sport (six oif a Rich Hill miracle occurs) and then we will have 4 guys who can spot start for an injury.

 

This provides our staff with a great deal of flexibility which is a good thing. Too bad he took away some by trading DeRosa.

 

I like it. I don't care about the 5th starter that much, but I do care about the 6th starter when Harden or Z or someone else goes down.

[davell]

Sure, the Pads had an interest in Olsen at one point, but isn't it highly possibly that they value Marshall more than they would Olsen? I know I would if I were them anyway. Getting Heilman could just be a replacement for Marshall as our swing guy basically and the Peavy trade would include Marshall, along with Vitters and whatever else we wind up sending them....

[davearm2]

I don't think Heilman is a fa after this season. Besides, we're just gonna roll over the Kerry Wood draft pick from this year into the 2010 draft. Plus we'll have DeRosa's draft pick next year. No need to load up on them.

Looks like you're right, Heilman's got two years to FA. I was going off of something someone said earlier, which apparently was wrong.

[Post Count Padder]

Rotoworld's take:

 

Cubs acquired RHP Aaron Heilman from the Mariners for LHP Garrett Olson and infielder Ronny Cedeno.

Oddly enough, Heilman probably has a better chance of securing a rotation spot with the NL Central champs than he did with the AL's worst team. Sean Marshall would seem to be his main competition unless the Cubs add another starter. If they do pick up a starter, they're going to have an extremely crowded pen between Carlos Marmol, Kevin Gregg, Jeff Samardzija (another rotation possibility), Chad Gaudin, Heilman, Luis Vizcaino, Neal Cotts, Marshall, Michael Wuertz, Angel Guzman and Kevin Hart. Heilman looked like a candidate to close in Seattle if Brandon Morrow stayed in the rotation. Now Miguel Batista would be the favorite for saves.

Related: Miguel Batista, Sean Marshall, Jeff Samardzija, Mariners

 

 

Mariners acquired LHP Garrett Olson and infielder Ronny Cedeno from the Cubs for RHP Aaron Heilman.

That the Mariners are getting Olson here suggests that they had the chance to trade Heilman for Felix Pie and turned it down. Olson, who was traded from the Orioles to the Cubs for Pie last week, brings a 10-13 record and a 6.87 ERA with him to Seattle. He's still a decent bet to make it as a fourth or fifth starter, but he belongs in Triple-A right now. The Mariners have enough rotation candidates to send him down for the start of the year.

 

 

 

Infielder Ronny Cedeno was traded from the Cubs to the Mariners in a three-player deal.

The Cubs were bored with Cedeno and believed they could find a better utilityman in free agency, perhaps Juan Uribe. The soon-to-be 26-year-old Cedeno makes for an adequate stopgap at shortstop, but he doesn't hit well enough to be an asset elsewhere, and there were plenty of better choices out there if the Mariners wanted someone who could move Jose Lopez off second base. He's just another infielder who probably shouldn't fit into the team's long-term plans.

[cubsfan26]

And there is a big dropoff between what we got from Wood last season and what we can expect from Gregg.

 

 

It won't be as pretty(less strike outs, more walks), but the results will be simliar. Wood allowed 24 runs last year in 66, Gregg allowed 26 in 68 IP in 08. Gregg allowed 33 in 84 IP in 07 and 24 in 62 IP in 06. So even if Gregg allows 29 runs in 68 innings next year, you're really telling me it's a big drop off? Gregg was also tougher to hit, and teams hit for less power off him. I know everybody loves Wood, but I don't see how this is a huge drop off. Were talking about a relief pitcher here.

 

And you know this how?

 

It's common sense, if you have a elite reliever, you don't just save him for the 9th. Unless the guy has a physical issue, or you have a elite reliever pitching in front of him. If it's the bottom of the 8th, Gregg walks a guy and there's two and with two outs, Marmol is coming into the game alot of the time.

 

If Marmol pitches a bunch of 5 out saves, he'll break down by the all star break

 

Pitching a bunch of 5 out saves, will probably be still less work then he had the last two years.

[RynoRules]

Maybe my upset over this is tied to the notion that Olson could be turned over to the Pads to get Peavy. Or the notion that Pie was swapped for Heilman and the prospect whose name I can't recall.

 

I won't miss Ronny. His plate discipline was never impressive, though I wonder why - if we have to have another backup MIF'er who can play 3B - Ronny didn't fit the bill.

 

Bah, whatever. I can't figure what Hendry is doing this offseason.

Edited January 28, 2009 by RynoRules

[AZCub]

And there is a big dropoff between what we got from Wood last season and what we can expect from Gregg.

 

 

It won't be as pretty(less strike outs, more walks), but the results will be simliar. Wood allowed 24 runs last year in 66, Gregg allowed 26 in 68 IP in 08. Gregg allowed 33 in 84 IP in 07 and 24 in 62 IP in 06. So even if Gregg allows 29 runs in 68 innings next year, you're really telling me it's a big drop off? Gregg was also tougher to hit, and teams hit for less power off him. I know everybody loves Wood, but I don't see how this is a huge drop off. Were talking about a relief pitcher here.

 

And you know this how?

 

It's common sense, if you have a elite reliever, you don't just save him for the 9th. Unless the guy has a physical issue, or you have a elite reliever pitching in front of him. If it's the bottom of the 8th, Gregg walks a guy and there's two and with two outs, Marmol is coming into the game alot of the time.

 

 

 

Very well said.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

The fact that it makes sense in no way means the Cubs will be doing it.