Buy low on Ben Sheets?

[TruffleShuffle]

Sheets met with the Rangers on Thursday. Mets also reportedly have interest.

 

Link.

 

Why is Sheets a good bargain?

 

Over the past eight seasons, he has made 30 more starts and pitched 175 2/3 more innings than righty A.J. Burnett, who signed a five-year, $82.5 million free-agent contract with the Yankees.

 

the problem is that sheets is hurt NOW. if he had a mostly-healthy 2008 then he would've cashed in big-time.

[Guest]

Sheets met with the Rangers on Thursday. Mets also reportedly have interest.

 

Link.

 

Why is Sheets a good bargain?

 

Over the past eight seasons, he has made 30 more starts and pitched 175 2/3 more innings than righty A.J. Burnett, who signed a five-year, $82.5 million free-agent contract with the Yankees.

 

the problem is that sheets is hurt NOW. if he had a mostly-healthy 2008 then he would've cashed in big-time.

 

He did have a mostly-healthy 2008, it's just (as you said) that he got hurt at the end of the year and is hurt now. If he missed the first 10 starts of the year, and made 25 straight to end the year and pitched in the playoffs, he would be fine.

[E.J.]

Rotoworld:

"Some general managers say privately that (Ben) Sheets will be fortunate to land a two-year, $20 million deal," according to ESPN.com's Buster Olney.

Sheets is an ace when he's healthy, but teams aren't willing to fork over major cash this year. The 30-year-old has an ERA of 3.24 over the last five seasons. The Rangers have shown the most interest lately, and he might be in their price range if Olney's report is true.

Source: ESPN.com

Related: Rangers

 

I would definitely be up for that. Wonder if the Cubs have any interest.

[JoshiQ]

I would love to have Sheets for 2 years for 20 million. When healthy our rotation would be the best in the majors, and hopefully when Sheets is injured Harden wouldn't be. It would probably

be worth the risk...unfortunately I don't think we have the money for it.

Edited January 24, 2009 by JoshiQ

[Bote McBoteface]

If we have the money to add Jake Peavy, we should have the money to add Ben Sheets should we not be able to get Peavy.

[Chuck_Cubs1]

Henry better get this done this guy has a niiiiice arm.

[Electron Blue]

If we have the money to add Jake Peavy, we should have the money to add Ben Sheets should we not be able to get Peavy.

 

Since it sounds like the biggest roadblock might not be finding a proposal that Padres and Cubs both like, but whether the Ricketts want to invest long-term in JP and his big-money years, this is an especially good point.

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

If we sign Sheets for 2/20 or 2/24 or somewhere in between, we'd lose a first round pick but hold onto Vitters. I think signing Sheets could be the way to go. Yes, he has injury issues, but Sheets at 10-12 million a year with only a 2 year commitment sounds like a no-brainer to me.

 

Why not offer Sheets a contract structured this way---

 

2 million signing bonus.

09- 10 million

10- 12 million

11- 15 million or 2 million buyout. (Have the 2011 year guaranteed if Sheets pitches 200 innings in 2010.)

 

This would guarantee Sheets 26 million over 2 years or if the option is picked up or he reaches the innings pitched incentive, he would have a 3/ 39.

[mdwilla]

seems like he might be had for even cheaper than the numbers your floating Vance according to some of the most recent chatter. Hendry not being on the hook for another long term contract and saving his save trade pieces makes a trade for Peavy look like a bad idea.

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

Well, if Sheets is even cheaper than what I'm floating, I'd go that route, injury history be damned. We're not talking about a Prior-Wood level of fragility. Sheets will likely give us 150 IP. When he pitches, he's going to be good. Zambrano, Harden, Sheets, Lilly, and Dempster would be one hellova rotation. We'd still have Marshall to fill in for Harden or Sheets when those two miss time. We'd also keep what little depth we have on the farm for a future deal if needed.

[Derwood]

if a team like the Rangers (who is desperate for pitching) is hesitant to give Sheets just a two year deal, there must be serious medical concerns

[inari]

if a team like the Rangers (who is desperate for pitching) is hesitant to give Sheets just a two year deal, there must be serious medical concerns

 

What he said. If this was as much of a no brainer as it seems like, than Sheets would be signed by now.

[Cubswin11]

if a team like the Rangers (who is desperate for pitching) is hesitant to give Sheets just a two year deal, there must be serious medical concerns

 

What he said. If this was as much of a no brainer as it seems like, than Sheets would be signed by now.

Yeah, if Lowe is getting nearly $50 mil. There is no reason Sheets shouldn't at least have an offer of 2@24 or 3@36. Garland, Wolf, Looper are all getting more interest than Sheets right now and Sheets left nut can pitch better than any of those guys.

[RedFlash]

if a team like the Rangers (who is desperate for pitching) is hesitant to give Sheets just a two year deal, there must be serious medical concerns

 

That and teams seem to want to hold onto their draft picks longer. I could see teams without the first rd protection hesitant to give up their first rd pick to sign Sheets ad teams that do have 1st rd protection don't seem interested to sign Sheets due to the economics and his injury concerns. I know Juan Cruz is bascially being lock out, because no team wants to give up a 1st or 2nd rd draft in these economic times, but that is especially true for Sheets.

 

I know both parties might no like it, but as of right now, IMO, the only team that could sign him is Milwaukee. I think it is beneficial to both parties to make it happen. Milwaukee needs another starter, and Sheets needs tot stay healthy and possibly cash in next yr. Because right now I don't see a team giving up a 1st rder to sign Sheets.

[Bote McBoteface]

Is there some point in the off season where you no longer need to give up a draft pick to sign Sheets?

[CubColtPacer]

Is there some point in the off season where you no longer need to give up a draft pick to sign Sheets?

 

Free agent compensation drops off after the draft in June.

[Bote McBoteface]

That makes a whole lot of sense.

[brinoch]

if a team like the Rangers (who is desperate for pitching) is hesitant to give Sheets just a two year deal, there must be serious medical concerns

 

What he said. If this was as much of a no brainer as it seems like, than Sheets would be signed by now.

 

Not necessarily. Sheets could be waiting until teams get a little more desperate.

[davearm2]

if a team like the Rangers (who is desperate for pitching) is hesitant to give Sheets just a two year deal, there must be serious medical concerns

 

What he said. If this was as much of a no brainer as it seems like, than Sheets would be signed by now.

Yeah, if Lowe is getting nearly $50 mil. There is no reason Sheets shouldn't at least have an offer of 2@24 or 3@36. Garland, Wolf, Looper are all getting more interest than Sheets right now and Sheets left nut can pitch better than any of those guys.

Make that $60 mil.

[davearm2]

if a team like the Rangers (who is desperate for pitching) is hesitant to give Sheets just a two year deal, there must be serious medical concerns

 

What he said. If this was as much of a no brainer as it seems like, than Sheets would be signed by now.

 

Not necessarily. Sheets could be waiting until teams get a little more desperate.

Unfortunately for Sheets, the sort of desperation teams are feeling right about now is the kind that leads them to spend less money, not more.

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

Sheets isn't the only FA that makes you wonder why he isn't signed. Manny is still out there. Adam Dunn remains unsigned. The same goes for Bobby Abreu and Orlando Hudson.

 

While all of these might carry some questions or red flags (Sheets- injury, Dunn- defense, Abreu-age and declining performance, Manny- perceived attitude), these are guys who would have gotten large multi-year deals in years past. To have all of thse guys along with other lesser players like Jon Garland, Jason Varitek, Orlando Cabrera and others still looking for work is evidence that teams just aren't willing to commit long-term money to players this winter.

 

While there have been some big contracts signed, my guess is that these players aren't signed because no one is interested, but that many aren't signed because no one is interested at the dollars and years for which they are asking.

 

Sooner or later, someone will either step to the plate and offer what they are looking for (doubtful) or the players will begin to adjust their demands and take the best offer they can still find.

 

Sheets may not be signed because teams see something really bad in his elbow, or it may be that in light of the economy, teams have adjusted their tolerance for risk and Sheets is still looking for a bigger payday.

[Ball And Glove]

When it comes to guys like Cabrera and Hudson still being out there, I think it's more a result of their teams offering them arbitration because they're Type A free agents. For those marginal Type A guys, the offering of arby is enough to kill any interest in the free agent market. IIRC, something similar happens with these guys every year. I remember Tony Graffanino inexplicably being a Type A free agent when he played for the Brewers, and him having to accept the arby offer because there was no chance he was going to get a multiyear deal as a Type A.

 

True, those guys are where they are now because they turned down their arby offers in the first place, but really the only one that probably should've taken the offer knowing what we know now is Sheets. Hell, Arizona didn't even offer arby to Adam Dunn for whatever reason. The system really sucks for those borderline guys...it's just one of those things that you see every year. I think there's more cases this year due to the bad economy and teams getting wiser about their picks.

[CubinNY]

When it comes to guys like Cabrera and Hudson still being out there, I think it's more a result of their teams offering them arbitration because they're Type A free agents. For those marginal Type A guys, the offering of arby is enough to kill any interest in the free agent market. IIRC, something similar happens with these guys every year. I remember Tony Graffanino inexplicably being a Type A free agent when he played for the Brewers, and him having to accept the arby offer because there was no chance he was going to get a multiyear deal as a Type A..

Didn't that happen to Todd Walker a few years ago? Then he was cut in ST.

 

sidebar: I will never forget auggiedoggie's irrational hatred for Walker and IMB's photoshop job. Those were the days.

[jersey cubs fan]

When it comes to guys like Cabrera and Hudson still being out there, I think it's more a result of their teams offering them arbitration because they're Type A free agents. For those marginal Type A guys, the offering of arby is enough to kill any interest in the free agent market. IIRC, something similar happens with these guys every year. I remember Tony Graffanino inexplicably being a Type A free agent when he played for the Brewers, and him having to accept the arby offer because there was no chance he was going to get a multiyear deal as a Type A.

 

True, those guys are where they are now because they turned down their arby offers in the first place, but really the only one that probably should've taken the offer knowing what we know now is Sheets. Hell, Arizona didn't even offer arby to Adam Dunn for whatever reason. The system really sucks for those borderline guys...it's just one of those things that you see every year. I think there's more cases this year due to the bad economy and teams getting wiser about their picks.

 

Varitek.

[Ball And Glove]

Didn't that happen to Todd Walker a few years ago? Then he was cut in ST.

 

I believe it happened to Graffy and Walker in the same offseason. Walker was cut and Graffanino tore his ACL later that year, pretty much ending his career.

 

True, those guys are where they are now because they turned down their arby offers in the first place, but really the only one that probably should've taken the offer knowing what we know now is Sheets.

 

Varitek.

 

Good call. I forgot that he was offered arby.