Re: Peavy High on Cubs Wish List

[ctcf]

Everyone's favorite Rotoworld updates with:

 

SI.com's Jon Heyman believes the Cubs and Padres have resumed discussing a Jake Peavy trade at the winter meetings.

It was just 12 hours ago that Heyman indicated that the deal was a long shot. He doesn't have any quotes from interested parties this time, but he does speculate that the two sides are currently working on doing a deal without having a third team involved. Dec. 8 - 2:00 am et

[BCVM22]

The Cubs sealing this deal on their own would be a surprise, given that the one constant through all the noise has been that if the Cubs want to get this done, they'll need a third team to provide some trade ammo.

[17 Seconds]

if i had to guess i'd probably say we end up with him, but it sucks that this is likely to drag on for awhile. i'd be really happy if it was settled one way or another by the holidays

[Schwarber Fan]

LAS VEGAS - Trade winds involving the Cubs acquring San Diego Padres ace Jake Peavy appeared to be gaining strength Sunday on the eve of the official start of baseball's annual winter meetings.

 

Multiple sources with knowledge of the Cubs' trade talks with San Diego told the Sun-Times over the weekend they expect the deal to get done, including one source close to Cubs general manager Jim Hendry who said the GM is ''very close'' to landing the National League's 2007 Cy Young Award winner.

 

While that term is open to some interpretation - much like a Cubs official saying ''nothing is imminent'' Sunday - the Cubs appear to have the framework in place for a five-for-one deal, as the San Diego Union-Tribune reported Sunday.

 

http://www.southtownstar.com/sports/1319239,120808sptcubssox.article

[JWCUB]

1:14am: Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times says the Cubs first want to trade Jason Marquis and acquire their left-handed hitting outfielder before Peavy. Wittenmyer's sources do believe the Cubs will eventually acquire San Diego's ace. However, his sources say the Tom Krasovic report about a five-for-one framework being in place is exaggerated.

 

Wittenmyer hears that the Orioles would be willing to swap Garrett Olson for Felix Pie; the Cubs would then send Olson to the Padres in the Peavy deal.

 

12:54am: According to SI.com's Jon Heyman, Padres GM Kevin Towers "envisions a way to do a [Jake Peavy] deal now only with the Cubs." We've heard rumors of the Padres and Cubs trying to rope in the Orioles or Rays as a third team.

 

Heyman adds that Peavy would approve a trade to Chicago "without any significant reworking of his contract or other major concessions." Does that imply that the Cubs would not have to guarantee Peavy's 2013 option ($22MM) or grant him a full no-trade clause?

 

Keep in mind that despite all the virtual ink that will be spilled on Peavy over the next four days, Jayson Stark sees "just about a zero chance" he's dealt at the Meetings. Still, the Cubs and Padres seem to already have a framework in place involving Sean Marshall, Kevin Hart, Josh Vitters, and maybe Ronny Cedeno.

 

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/

[Little Slide Rooter]

Sean Marshall, Kevin Hart, Josh Vitters, and maybe Ronny Cedeno.

 

The only one of those guys who Id miss would be Vitters, and even with him, you never know what he'll be, or when he'll be it. Sure, I like Marshall, but 3-4 years of Peavy will more than make up for him. Maybe Rich Hill will come back and take his place. or not. probably not.

[Jehrico]

Everyone's favorite Rotoworld updates with:

 

SI.com's Jon Heyman believes the Cubs and Padres have resumed discussing a Jake Peavy trade at the winter meetings.

It was just 12 hours ago that Heyman indicated that the deal was a long shot. He doesn't have any quotes from interested parties this time, but he does speculate that the two sides are currently working on doing a deal without having a third team involved. Dec. 8 - 2:00 am et

In other words, Heyman has no clue, no real source, and is just pulling garbage out of his 4th point of contact.

[Electron Blue]

quite the saga this whole thing has been. up, down, up, down.

 

over the weekend, the deal was on "life support" now it seems like such a sure thing. obviously today's reports are more accurate since they're telling me what I want to hear ;)

 

honestly, though, the phrasing of these new reports and the general agreement on the facts within them does seem a bit confidence-inspiring.

 

it sure would be nice to at least get this left-handed bat settled during the winter meetings here.

[Jehrico]

Ronny is likely to be dealt one way or another. I think SD wants him, but if not, what about Oakland? They're serious about acquiring a SS this offseason, and were just spurned by Furcal. We have a good history trading with Beane, so I wonder what we could get from Oakland for Ronny in case he doesn't go to SD? Maybe they could be one of the darkhorse "3rd teams" in this deal...

[Soul]

I wonder why the Cubs are intent on signing the LH hitter first. With the names being thrown about, it doesn't seem like that would be a real necessary thing. Doesn't seem like there would have to be any kind of sequencing in place when you're just talking about guys like Bradley.

[Jehrico]

I wonder why the Cubs are intent on signing the LH hitter first. With the names being thrown about, it doesn't seem like that would be a real necessary thing. Doesn't seem like there would have to be any kind of sequencing in place when you're just talking about guys like Bradley.

I think they need to see how much money it will cost them so they can see where they stand financially. Either that, or Hendry's hesitant to deal Pie if we only have Hoff/Johnson/Fuku/Fonzie as options in the OF. Just a guess, because otherwise, you're right, it doesn't make too much sense.

[RyneDawson]

I think getting Peavy is more important than getting a LH RF. I would much rather have Reed Johnson, Mike Fontenot, or Hoffpauir in the lineup as well as Peavy, than Abreu or Ibanez and Marquis. Just imagine our rotation. If you seriously sit down and think about it, we will go 150-12 this year with peavy. Last year when our starters went on the mound we had so much confidence.... Harden was almost a sure win every time. Dempster was ridiculous and almost a sure win. Zambrano pretty much is a sure win 1 out of every 4-5 starts. Lilly started to dominate and was almost a for sure win. Then we throw an even better pitcher in, in Peavy. Another for sure win. I'm not saying that these guys will win every time, but wow, no more "we should lose this game" thoughts. Cuz we should be the favorites to win every game. And our offense won't be any worse than last year. Probably better with Fontenot in there instead of Edmonds.

[fromthestretch]

I think getting Peavy is more important than getting a LH RF. I would much rather have Reed Johnson, Mike Fontenot, or Hoffpauir in the lineup as well as Peavy, than Abreu or Ibanez and Marquis. Just imagine our rotation. If you seriously sit down and think about it, we will go 150-12 this year with peavy. Last year when our starters went on the mound we had so much confidence.... Harden was almost a sure win every time. Dempster was ridiculous and almost a sure win. Zambrano pretty much is a sure win 1 out of every 4-5 starts. Lilly started to dominate and was almost a for sure win. Then we throw an even better pitcher in, in Peavy. Another for sure win. I'm not saying that these guys will win every time, but wow, no more "we should lose this game" thoughts. Cuz we should be the favorites to win every game. And our offense won't be any worse than last year. Probably better with Fontenot in there instead of Edmonds.

 

I know (at least I hope) you were exaggerating a little with the "150-12" comment, but still...I think your optimism is a bit high to say the least.

 

Dempster will most likely regress from his 2008 performance, considering he never once came close to that level prior to this season. Harden will miss some starts due to injury or simply due to rest in an effort to prevent injury. While Lilly is solid, he is not "a for sure win." Neither is Zambrano. And we haven't even touched on the bullpen yet.

 

I don't anticipate the offense to be a huge issue or anything, but it's not a stretch to think it could be worse than last year. While I don't predict huge drop-offs from these guys, Lee, Ramirez, and Soriano aren't exactly getting younger. DeRosa certainly isn't a sure bet to slug over .460 again. And Fontenot isn't going to top a .900 OPS again. Theriot's OBP could slide back to the .350 range or worse.

[erik316wttn]

if i had to guess i'd probably say we end up with him, but it sucks that this is likely to drag on for awhile. i'd be really happy if it was settled one way or another by the holidays

 

If it's any consolation, with the way the economy and the market is going, I'm sure that if it does drag out and we finally end up with him, there should still be some serviceable and affordable bats left to fill our OF hole. Teams seem to be very slow to sign players this offseason, so hopefully there will be enough talent left.

[UMFan83]

I think getting Peavy is more important than getting a LH RF. I would much rather have Reed Johnson, Mike Fontenot, or Hoffpauir in the lineup as well as Peavy, than Abreu or Ibanez and Marquis. Just imagine our rotation. If you seriously sit down and think about it, we will go 150-12 this year with peavy. Last year when our starters went on the mound we had so much confidence.... Harden was almost a sure win every time. Dempster was ridiculous and almost a sure win. Zambrano pretty much is a sure win 1 out of every 4-5 starts. Lilly started to dominate and was almost a for sure win. Then we throw an even better pitcher in, in Peavy. Another for sure win. I'm not saying that these guys will win every time, but wow, no more "we should lose this game" thoughts. Cuz we should be the favorites to win every game. And our offense won't be any worse than last year. Probably better with Fontenot in there instead of Edmonds.

 

Sounds like stuff we said in 2004, especially the "no more 'we should lose this game' thoughts"

[BigbadB]

It would seem to me that this whole bit about having to lock up a LH RF is just leverage on Hendry's part.

 

Towers has no one to trade Peavy to if the Cubs spend too much for a LH RF. It's pretty apparent that Peavy wants to be a Cub.

 

The Padres will have a lot more work to do once they move Peavy. Peavy's contract is holding them up from doing anything.

 

I think Marquis has to be traded if they add Peavy. But, Hendry doesn't want to come right out and say that so that he doesn't dilute the trade value Marquis currently has.

 

Once Marquis is traded, I would expect the Peavy deal to follow very closely after. I'd be shocked if Hendry has the money to sign Dunn or Abreu after trading for Peavy. I think a cheaper target would be Bradley.

 

Also, once the Cubs have Peavy, I would think a few LH bats would see Chicago as a great destination if they have their sights set on playing in the playoffs. It's possible Hendry could get a little more leverage for that bat with Peavy already in the fold.

[Sever82]

Just my opinion but to me you have a better chances of winning with a stud pitching staff than a stud offense. I'm still holding on to the hope that we trade Marquis away and get peavy and sign furcal.

[UMFan83]

Just my opinion but to me you have a better chances of winning with a stud pitching staff than a stud offense. I'm still holding on to the hope that we trade Marquis away and get peavy and sign furcal.

 

This is true. But as we've seen the last 2 Octobers, having a offense that doesn't perform in October hurts too. In 3 out of the last 6 playoff games we lost we gave up 3, 5 and 3 runs.

[BigbadB]

Just my opinion but to me you have a better chances of winning with a stud pitching staff than a stud offense. I'm still holding on to the hope that we trade Marquis away and get peavy and sign furcal.

 

This is true. But as we've seen the last 2 Octobers, having a offense that doesn't perform in October hurts too. In 3 out of the last 6 playoff games we lost we gave up 3, 5 and 3 runs.

 

The Cubs scored more runs than any other team in the NL last year.

[UMFan83]

Just my opinion but to me you have a better chances of winning with a stud pitching staff than a stud offense. I'm still holding on to the hope that we trade Marquis away and get peavy and sign furcal.

 

This is true. But as we've seen the last 2 Octobers, having a offense that doesn't perform in October hurts too. In 3 out of the last 6 playoff games we lost we gave up 3, 5 and 3 runs.

 

The Cubs scored more runs than any other team in the NL last year.

 

Yup. My point was even with a stud pitching staff, you need to score runs in October.

[BigbadB]

Just my opinion but to me you have a better chances of winning with a stud pitching staff than a stud offense. I'm still holding on to the hope that we trade Marquis away and get peavy and sign furcal.

 

This is true. But as we've seen the last 2 Octobers, having a offense that doesn't perform in October hurts too. In 3 out of the last 6 playoff games we lost we gave up 3, 5 and 3 runs.

 

The Cubs scored more runs than any other team in the NL last year.

 

Yup. My point was even with a stud pitching staff, you need to score runs in October.

 

Which is all well and good. But, the rumors are that the Cubs plan to upgrade RF and there isn't one clear upgrade over any other player. It's going to be a gamble no matter who they grab of this group: Abreu, Ibanez, Bradley, Scott, Hermida, Giles, Dunn, etc...

 

The difference between Peavy and Marquis is much more significant.

[RammyFanny]

The art of the deal, Towers says, is based on building relationships and understanding your potential trading partners.

 

“Guys that you've got good relationships with, usually there's less cat-and-mouse games,” Towers said before leaving San Diego for baseball's winter meetings. “Certain guys deal differently. Jim Hendry with the Cubs is very open, up-front, has a good feeling for value. Like with (Jake) Peavy, (Hendry's) not going to embarrass you and say, well, 'This guy's not available, this guy's not available, this guy's not available.' It's more, 'If I'm going to be in the running for Peavy, everybody's available.' ”

If Towers trades his pitching ace to the Cubs this winter, it will be partially the product of the personal relationship he has forged with his Cubs'contemporary.

 

Hendry has already told Towers to be cautious about a particular Cubs'prospect because of medical issues that might not otherwise have come to light. In a business where such information is precious and is often considered proprietary, establishing trust and cultivating candor are critical to getting deals done.

http://www.signonsandiego.com/sports/sullivan/20081208-9999-1s8sullivan.html

 

Nice quotes there.

[BigbadB]

I wonder what kind of relationship Peavy and Bradley had in San Diego?

[Roast]

Don't know if it's been posted yet because I'm too lazy to read this entire thread. But this mornings Sun Times said "Sources say Cubs GM Jim Hendry is very close to trading for the Padres' Jake Peavy"

 

It says it would likely be a 5-1 deal with us sending Pie, Marshall, Vitters, Cedeno, and Hart. That's pretty similar to what the post above me says, it looks like. The article also said though that it's possible for the Cubs to trade Pie to Baltimore for Garret Olson who would then be flipped to SD.

 

This is getting fun.

[RammyFanny]

And I don't buy the "we have to wait to get approval from ownership" BS. If Kenney has already said and implied how high the payroll is going to be, they obviously know the amount. I don't see why they need approval from anyone if they already have gotten approval on the overall budget.