Re: Time to give Theriot less playing time?

[nilodnayr]

Who cares about his power? He's not a power hitter! You don't need all 8 guys to hit for power to be successful, as we've seen this year. Theriot gets on base more frequently than any other Cubs player. That's what he does -- works the count, sees a lot of pitches, and then gets on base. He's not perfect, no player is.

 

Here is a list of Cubs w/ over 100 PAs who have more BB/pa than Theriot

 

Fukudome

Ward

Edmonds

ARam

Fontenot

Soto

DeRosa

 

 

Heres a list of Cubs w/ over 100 PAs who have less BB/pa than Theriot

 

Blanco

Soriano

Lee

Cedeno

Johnson

[Mizzou]

Who cares about his power? He's not a power hitter! You don't need all 8 guys to hit for power to be successful, as we've seen this year. Theriot gets on base more frequently than any other Cubs player. That's what he does -- works the count, sees a lot of pitches, and then gets on base. He's not perfect, no player is.

 

Baseball is not a game of specialists. You can't substitute in for offense/defense or when you need a power or an on-base oriented hitter very often. So every player has to be evaluated on at least 4 things: their ability to get on base, their ability to hit for power, their baserunning, and their defense. All of those come together to form the total package of a player. They aren't all weighted the same, but that's another argument entirely. If you have a player that contributes more overall over those 4 categories, then he should be the one starting.

 

That's why looking at one category can cause invalid results. Yes, the Cubs don't need 8 power hitters. But that doesn't mean Theriot's major deficiency in power isn't a big problem that needs to be looked at when comparing him to other shortstops. The Cubs don't need everybody to be perfect on the basepaths. Theriot has had a deficiency on the basepaths this year though, and that shouldn't be ignored. Theriot's mediocre defense should not be ignored either.

 

Now I happen to agree with you that when adding up all 4 categories, Theriot still comes out ahead of Cedeno. But choosing Theriot because of 1 skill is dangerous, because it doesn't help you figure out where you need to upgrade. Wouldn't it be nice if we could find a Theriot with a little more power and better defense? For enough of the first two, I'd sacrifice some of the OBP.

 

So I agree with your conclusion that Theriot should be the starting SS until a better option comes along, and that right now there is no better option. But we should care about his power..because then we know what to look for to find players who are better than Theriot. I happen to think we're going to have a hard time finding one freely available when looking at how bad SS's have been in the majors this year. But only if we're honest about both a player's assets and limitations can we truly evaluate if we can upgrade and continue to make this team better.

Good post, and I essentially agree. I didn't mean to imply that his lack of power is nothing to look at. Clearly it factors into the decision of who to start. Or who to trade/acquire in the offseason. My post was more out of frustration that we have this guy who's doing exactly what a person in his role (#2 hitter) should do -- get on base, move runners over, etc. Yet people are bitching that he doesn't hit for power. The guys behind him are supposed to hit for power. Theriot is doing his job. If we had a Chase Utley sitting on the bench, I'd be vocal that he should start. But we don't. We have Ronny Cedeno, who has never proven himself to be better than what Theriot has done this year.

 

For the record, I'm not opposed to upgrading SS in the offseason. I'm not opposed to upgrading any position in the offseason. I don't think it's necessarily feasible for us to do so, but we'll see. I don't have this huge boner for Theriot. I just think that he's the best option on this team.

[snoodmonger]

any official explanation as to why theriot cradled that ball like a mother bird protecting its young?

someone should figure out who his superior is and demand his termination posthaste

Shouldn't you be busy starting threads crying about how your wife left you and telling everyone how you can't ever get laid?

 

wow. a-hole move.

[Mizzou]

Who cares about his power? He's not a power hitter! You don't need all 8 guys to hit for power to be successful, as we've seen this year. Theriot gets on base more frequently than any other Cubs player. That's what he does -- works the count, sees a lot of pitches, and then gets on base. He's not perfect, no player is.

 

Here is a list of Cubs w/ over 100 PAs who have more BB/pa than Theriot

 

Fukudome

Ward

Edmonds

ARam

Fontenot

Soto

DeRosa

 

 

Heres a list of Cubs w/ over 100 PAs who have less BB/pa than Theriot

 

Blanco

Soriano

Lee

Cedeno

Johnson

Here's a list of Cubs with over 100 PA's who have a higher OBP than Theriot...

Mike Fontenot

 

Here's a list of Cubs with over 100 PA's who have a lower OBP than Theriot...

Soto

Lee

Ramirez

Soriano

Edmonds

Fukudome

Johnson

Cedeno

Ward

 

I get your point... I was wrong about seeing a lot of pitches compared to his teammates. He does have good patience though and doesn't swing at crap.

[SouthSideRyan]

Here's a list of players with 100 or more PAs with a worse DP rate than Ryan Theriot.

 

...

[Mizzou]

Here's a list of players with 100 or more PAs with a worse DP rate than Ryan Theriot.

 

...

Lee's is surely worse.

[SouthSideRyan]

Here's a list of players with 100 or more PAs with a worse DP rate than Ryan Theriot.

 

...

Lee's is surely worse.

 

Per PA, not per opportunity.

[BigbadB]

Good post, and I essentially agree. I didn't mean to imply that his lack of power is nothing to look at. Clearly it factors into the decision of who to start. Or who to trade/acquire in the offseason. My post was more out of frustration that we have this guy who's doing exactly what a person in his role (#2 hitter) should do -- get on base, move runners over, etc. Yet people are bitching that he doesn't hit for power. The guys behind him are supposed to hit for power. Theriot is doing his job. If we had a Chase Utley sitting on the bench, I'd be vocal that he should start. But we don't. We have Ronny Cedeno, who has never proven himself to be better than what Theriot has done this year.

 

For the record, I'm not opposed to upgrading SS in the offseason. I'm not opposed to upgrading any position in the offseason. I don't think it's necessarily feasible for us to do so, but we'll see. I don't have this huge boner for Theriot. I just think that he's the best option on this team.

 

I think most everyone here agrees with this as well. The argument that I see being made is that Cedeno has never really had the opportunity to prove he can do more than Theriot. Part time at bats just don't qualify as a legit chance.

 

Where Theriot has improved in OBP, he's lost in SLG. I still value him a little more today than I did prior to the start of the season, but if there was a position I'd like to see upgraded this offseason, SS is it. If Theriot has increased his trade value among the "old boys network" and he can help net us that upgrade, I'd be even more pleased.

 

Cedeno has pretty much grown into a lost cause at this point. I think he's now cast permanently into a utility role, and it's a little sad, IMO. The one legit chance he got was when he was really too young and inexperienced to get that chance, and he hasn't gotten one since.

[Mizzou]

Here's a list of players with 100 or more PAs with a worse DP rate than Ryan Theriot.

 

...

Lee's is surely worse.

 

Per PA, not per opportunity.

Where did you find per opportunity numbers?

[BigbadB]

Here's a list of players with 100 or more PAs with a worse DP rate than Ryan Theriot.

 

...

Lee's is surely worse.

 

Per PA, not per opportunity.

Where did you find per opportunity numbers?

 

He's probably looking at PA with runners on first with less than 2 outs.

 

Wait, do they actually provide that stat?

[David]

I just wish they'd hit Theriot 8th or 9th (he's actually a decent fit for that "second leadoff hitter" 9th hitter) so I wouldn't have to see a player who has almost no chance of hitting for extra bases come up so much.

 

Something like

 

Soriano

Lee

Ramirez

Soto

Edmonds

DeRosa

Fuk/Font

Theriot/P

P/Theriot

 

But Lou would never move Lee from 3 to 2 so maybe

 

Soriano

DeRosa

Lee

Ramirez

Edmonds

Soto

Fuk/Font

Theriot/P

P/Theriot

 

Now that I think of it, I'm sort of surprised that Lou doesn't seem to hit DeRosa high in the order much. Not that batting order matters much... I just wish there were someone with SOME extra-base ability getting more PAs than Theriot.

 

EDIT - Went ahead and swapped Edmonds and Soto in the second one since Lou has to split the lefties.

Edited September 25, 2008 by David

[CubColtPacer]

Here's a list of players with 100 or more PAs with a worse DP rate than Ryan Theriot.

 

...

Lee's is surely worse.

 

Per PA, not per opportunity.

Where did you find per opportunity numbers?

 

He's probably looking at PA with runners on first with less than 2 outs.

 

Wait, do they actually provide that stat?

 

BP actually provides DP percentage per opportunity.

 

Here is the link:

 

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/sortable/index.php?cid=414603

 

When I sorted it using 100 plate appearances as the min standard, Theriot ended up hitting into a double play at the 82nd highest rate in the majors (18.1%). Lee was 103rd (17% of the time).

Edited September 25, 2008 by CubColtPacer

[BigbadB]

I just wish they'd hit Theriot 8th or 9th (he's actually a decent fit for that "second leadoff hitter" 9th hitter) so I wouldn't have to see a player who has almost no chance of hitting for extra bases come up so much.

 

Something like

 

Soriano

Lee

Ramirez

Soto

Edmonds

DeRosa

Fuk/Font

Theriot/P

P/Theriot

 

But Lou would never move Lee from 3 to 2 so maybe

 

Soriano

DeRosa

Lee

Ramirez

Soto

Edmonds

Fuk/Font

Theriot/P

P/Theriot

 

Now that I think of it, I'm sort of surprised that Lou doesn't seem to hit DeRosa high in the order much. Not that batting order matters much... I just wish there were someone with SOME extra-base ability getting more PAs than him.

 

That's been my strongest argument. He's a #8 hitter. Not a #2. Lou has used him in the #8 spot this season, so it's not like it's never happened. Just not enough.

 

DeRosa is ideal in the #2 spot, actually. Because I don't want my #2 guy bunting the lead off guy over (except in the most rare of occasions). I want the big inning. Soriano, DeRosa, Lee, Ramirez, Soto, Edmonds/Johnson, Fukudome, Theriot.

 

Here you have two of your best OBP guys batting in front of Soriano, DeRosa, Lee and Ramirez. And it works. Soriano has pretty good RBI totals in his normal top of the order slot. He would probably lead the team today if he wasn't injured. Put your best hitters at the top of the order and slot the other guys at the bottom.

[SouthSideRyan]

Here's a list of players with 100 or more PAs with a worse DP rate than Ryan Theriot.

 

...

Lee's is surely worse.

 

Per PA, not per opportunity.

Where did you find per opportunity numbers?

 

He's probably looking at PA with runners on first with less than 2 outs.

 

Wait, do they actually provide that stat?

 

I've heard it in multiple places, I believe even on a Cubs broadcast. I confirmed it on BR by taking PAs with a runner on 1st for each, and assumed a normal distribution of 2 out chances for each. Theriot hits a DP about once every 8 chances, while Lee hits about one every 9.

[abuck1220]

here is a list of people who have inappropriately brought up posters' personal lives in this thread because that is all they are capable of doing because they suck at arguing...

 

mizzou

[SouthSideRyan]

Thanks CCP.

[nilodnayr]

Who cares about his power? He's not a power hitter! You don't need all 8 guys to hit for power to be successful, as we've seen this year. Theriot gets on base more frequently than any other Cubs player. That's what he does -- works the count, sees a lot of pitches, and then gets on base. He's not perfect, no player is.

 

Here is a list of Cubs w/ over 100 PAs who have more BB/pa than Theriot

 

Fukudome

Ward

Edmonds

ARam

Fontenot

Soto

DeRosa

 

 

Heres a list of Cubs w/ over 100 PAs who have less BB/pa than Theriot

 

Blanco

Soriano

Lee

Cedeno

Johnson

Here's a list of Cubs with over 100 PA's who have a higher OBP than Theriot...

Mike Fontenot

 

Here's a list of Cubs with over 100 PA's who have a lower OBP than Theriot...

Soto

Lee

Ramirez

Soriano

Edmonds

Fukudome

Johnson

Cedeno

Ward

 

I get your point... I was wrong about seeing a lot of pitches compared to his teammates. He does have good patience though and doesn't swing at crap.

 

My point though is that his value is solely in OBP and his OBP is dependent not upon walks, which tend to be less volatile and are more controllable by the batter, but on the fact that his ground balls don't get hit in the range of a defender.

 

In regards to his swinging, you are right. Theriot does have one of the lowest swing %s for balls outside of the zone. Another important stat would be his contact rate of swings at balls in the zone...in this category he leads the league at 96.7%.

[Mizzou]

here is a list of people who have inappropriately brought up posters' personal lives in this thread because that is all they are capable of doing because they suck at arguing...

 

mizzou

Dude, are you seriously this daft?

 

keg stands? oh wait, that's you. high five.

 

someone should figure out who his superior is and demand his termination posthaste

 

my goodness, dude, go headbutt your frat bros to release some of that tension.

 

Don't take shots at me and then cry about me "inappropriately bringing up personal lives."

[abuck1220]

i don't really think your tendency to brag about kegorators is comparable to a guy's divorce. maybe i'm wrong though.

[jersey cubs fan]

i don't really think your tendency to brag about kegorators is comparable to a guy's divorce. maybe i'm wrong though.

 

I really need to replace the keg in my kegorator. It's been on E for far too long, thanks for reminding me.

[abuck1220]

no prob, bro.

 

[high five]

[David]

there's no reason to drag beer into this nasty mess

[jersey cubs fan]

no prob, bro.

 

[high five]

 

http://frustrationnation.files.wordpress.com/2006/11/puddy.jpg

[BigbadB]

There is never a reason to get personal when trying to have a debate.

 

Everyone can please just stop that now. Thanks in advance.

[David]

all signs point to yesss