Throwing this out there: is Fukudome rather unimpressive?

[badnews]

I understand we are all required by federal law to bend over backwards to quash any resistance to the idea that this guy is nothing short of amazing. But since his hot start, he's been blah to me. Okay, yes, taking walks is great. Haven't had that type of guy in a while. But where is his production headed? Toward Scott Hatteberg 2004 rates? Now that doesn't impress me.

 

When we acquired this guy all I heard was that he was going to have 15+ home run power and a boatload of doubles. I remember one phrase in particular: "He will have a crap ton of doubles." Well 13 is not a crap ton so far.

 

I'm not going to be impressed if his rate numbers look like John Olerud 2003. I'm even wondering whether Kevin Youkilis 2006 cuts it.

 

Anyway it's a long season and things can happen and people were wrong about Dempster and so forth so far, so nothing much can be said, but I haven't seen one word of anything less than sheer exuberance about Fukudome, so I just wanted to bring it up, if it comes to 100 walks but a .280 BA and an Isolated Power of .140, maybe that and good defense isn't the awesomest thing in the world from a corner outfielder.

[CubbieBum]

I love him but yes he hasn't been that great so far just average batting wise. He's been very patient and thus has a good OBP but has shown little power and hasn't gotten many hits in his RBI situations. He has played great defense though so overall he is doing well just not to the level we expected.

[JimSorgi]

He has been very patient and given us a .409 OBP along with some good defense. He doesn't have a great SLG%, but his OBP makes up for it. A .847 OPS is pretty good. I still think he should be batting first or second.

[frostwyrm]

He's good, but not a superstar. He should really bat 1 or 2. He has great OBP skills but little power. Then there's Soriano, who has lousy OBP skills and lots of power. It's ridiculous Fuku bats down in the order and Soriano at the top.

[BigSlick]

I understand we are all required by federal law to bend over backwards to quash any resistance to the idea that this guy is nothing short of amazing. But since his hot start, he's been blah to me. Okay, yes, taking walks is great. Haven't had that type of guy in a while. But where is his production headed? Toward Scott Hatteberg 2004 rates? Now that doesn't impress me.

 

When we acquired this guy all I heard was that he was going to have 15+ home run power and a boatload of doubles. I remember one phrase in particular: "He will have a crap ton of doubles." Well 13 is not a crap ton so far.

 

I'm not going to be impressed if his rate numbers look like John Olerud 2003. I'm even wondering whether Kevin Youkilis 2006 cuts it.

 

Anyway it's a long season and things can happen and people were wrong about Dempster and so forth so far, so nothing much can be said, but I haven't seen one word of anything less than sheer exuberance about Fukudome, so I just wanted to bring it up, if it comes to 100 walks but a .280 BA and an Isolated Power of .140, maybe that and good defense isn't the awesomest thing in the world from a corner outfielder.

 

Anyone that has a .400 OBP is impressive, I don't care what else he does. The fact that Fukudome does it with plus defense, plus baserunning and at least average power is a bonus.

 

I'd rather have 2 Fukudomes then 2 Sorianos

 

EDIT: A lineup of 9 Sorianos would score 6.6 Runs a game, a lineup of 9 Fukudomes would score 7.1 runs a game.

 

Also, just for the record, a lineup of 9 Derrek Lees would score 5.3 runs a game. :|

 

There are plenty of other people to go picking on, Fukudome is one of our best hitters in one of the best offenses.

 

Seems like an odd time to start picking on him, he's started jacking home runs now.

Edited June 15, 2008 by BigSlick

[OleMissCub]

Though he isn't standing out as "impressive", his OBP, speed, consistent defense, and situational intelligence all combine to make him a great asset to this team. He's steady Eddie out there, and I like it a lot. He's certainly not a liability.

[badnews]

I used to be on board with Fukudome batting 5th but now I see I was kidding myself. Now I don't see how it's not a huge benefit to have this guy on base when Lee and particularly Ramirez come up.

 

I don't know how many #5 hitters have a .135 Isolated Power.

 

Whoa whoa whoa, now we're talking up his intangibles like he's Ryan Theriot. Let's not go there.

 

A .400 OBP may impress you but a few more points off his sinking-like-a-rock batting average and he's into the 2004 Hatteberg/2003 John Olerud territory, and I don't remember being impressed with those guys. He has two cheap home runs this month but no doubles. I just don't like the power. He's not Sean Burroughs but if you told me he finishes the season with a .110 Isolated Power I wouldn't be shocked.

[badnews]

Maybe I should put what I was trying to say a little better.

 

In 2007 my impression was that people viewed the RF situation with a lot of scorn and disgust. The aggregate right field numbers for 2007 were:

 

.293 BA

.375 OBP

.419 SLG

.794 OPS

75 walks

80 RBIs

75 runs

5 steals, 3 caught

 

My question would be, if you tack on 10 OBP points (regardless of whether the BA drops or not) and adds 5 slugging points, does what was seen as a "disaster" of sorts then become a monumental success?

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

Maybe I should put what I was trying to say a little better.

 

In 2007 my impression was that people viewed the RF situation with a lot of scorn and disgust. The aggregate right field numbers for 2007 were:

 

.293 BA

.375 OBP

.419 SLG

.794 OPS

75 walks

80 RBIs

75 runs

5 steals, 3 caught

 

My question would be, if you tack on 10 OBP points (regardless of whether the BA drops or not) and adds 5 slugging points, does what was seen as a "disaster" of sorts then become a monumental success?

 

I think there's a little more though that Fukudome brings. First, he greatly improves the defense for RF over last season. Now, I'll always take the bat over defense, but Fukudome's defense over Floyd/Jones/Murton/etc from last year is a huge improvement.

 

So, when adding the 10-25 pts of OBP and the small increase in slugging with the huge improvement defensively, Fukudome is a big improvement.

[OleMissCub]

You raise good points, but he's certainly going to score a ton more runs than our right fielders did last year.

[JimSorgi]

 

Whoa whoa whoa, now we're talking up his intangibles like he's Ryan Theriot. Let's not go there.

 

A .400 OBP may impress you but a few more points off his sinking-like-a-rock batting average and he's into the 2004 Hatteberg/2003 John Olerud territory, and I don't remember being impressed with those guys. He has two cheap home runs this month but no doubles. I just don't like the power. He's not Sean Burroughs but if you told me he finishes the season with a .110 Isolated Power I wouldn't be shocked.

Who's talking up his intangibles? And about comparing Fukudome to 2004 Hatteberg/2003 John Olerud if his numbers fall, you must be expecting a big dropoff because here are the OPS's of those players: .787 .762 .847 Guess which one is Fukudome's.

[imb]

Among RFs, he seventh in VORP.

 

Matsui didn't hit for much power his first year over, either. .287/.353/.435 compared to Kosuke's .300/.409/.438.

 

Matsui's OPS+ was 109, Fukudome's is 120.

 

Matsui's SLG jumped almost 90 points in his second year. In other words, Fukudome's been great and he'll probably only get better.

[CubbieBum]

I used to be on board with Fukudome batting 5th but now I see I was kidding myself. Now I don't see how it's not a huge benefit to have this guy on base when Lee and particularly Ramirez come up.

 

I don't know how many #5 hitters have a .135 Isolated Power.

 

Whoa whoa whoa, now we're talking up his intangibles like he's Ryan Theriot. Let's not go there.

 

A .400 OBP may impress you but a few more points off his sinking-like-a-rock batting average and he's into the 2004 Hatteberg/2003 John Olerud territory, and I don't remember being impressed with those guys. He has two cheap home runs this month but no doubles. I just don't like the power. He's not Sean Burroughs but if you told me he finishes the season with a .110 Isolated Power I wouldn't be shocked.

 

I would have said the same thing about his average but he's actually been extremely consistent (maybe the most past Theriot) in batting average. Here are by month numbers for average and OBP.

 

April - .305 .416

May - .293 .388

June - .250 .391

 

Now keep in mind for June that he has gone 6-14 in the last four games (hence it's not going down anymore). So his OBP is pretty conistent and by the end of this month judging from is recent rebound his average will be consistent too. He's a consistent .290 .390 player. like I said before not bad but not great either. I'm not complaining for the record I am content with what he is doing.

 

BTW his March has to be the best in history ... ;)

[imb]

comparing him to 2003 John Olerud is totally wrong. Olerud's average, on base and slugging were all lower in 2003 than Fukudome's this season.

 

Put together his total package and he's very valuable.

 

And saying his batting average is sinking like a rock is pretty ridiculous. Yeah, his average has gone down each month, but his OBP has stayed the same and his babip is .250 this month, so he's been unlucky, anyway.

 

Basically, anyone that complains about the year Fukudome is having is not paying attention.

[17 Seconds]

 

Basically, anyone that complains about the year Fukudome is having is not paying attention.

 

He wasn't complaining, he was pointing out that he has perhaps been unimpressive. There's a difference. I think he's doing fine, but his lack of any power whatsoever is pretty disappointing. I wasn't expecting much home run power, but where are the doubles? Like the OP said, that's all we heard all offseason. "He isn't going to hit a home run, but he's going to hit a lot of gaps and hit a ton of doubles." Off the top of my head I can't think of one time I saw him drive a ball into the gap. It seems like when he DOES get a double (which isn't often), it's usually flapped down the line. Hopefully his power comes along like Matsui's, because I was expecting a little more than a slap hitter.

[TruffleShuffle]

he's fine. he's not great, but he's good, and he does a lot of things well (baserunning, defense, choosing japanese restaurants). i have a hard time seeing how his approach will translate into good power, but if he turns out to be a slightly watered down version of bobby abreu's prime, that's not a bad thing. he's certainly better than the other options.

[CubbieBum]

he's fine. he's not great, but he's good, and he does a lot of things well (baserunning, defense, choosing japanese restaurants). i have a hard time seeing how his approach will translate into good power, but if he turns out to be a slightly watered down version of bobby abreu's prime, that's not a bad thing. he's certainly better than the other options.

 

slightly watered down of Bobby Abreu's prime???? You do realize how good he was. He was a 25-30 HR guy who could hit .330 and draw 100 walks. Oh yeah and he stole 30 bases pretty regularly back in the day. So even a heavy water down would mean Fukudome is .300 15 HR with 20 SB's. Right now he's not on pace for any of those and pretty far off on some of the other stats. What I compare him to is Francoeur with much less power but much more plate discipline i.e. walks. Both hit around .290 and play very good defense in RF with cannon's for arms.

[wrigley23]

guys like fuko w/ little power but high obp hit leadoff. He would be one of the premier leadoff men in baseball based on his obp alone. He's just being used incorrectly as is Soriano.

[CubColtPacer]

I'm happy we have him even at his contract because I believe he will likely be very consistent. This is pretty much what I expected of him. A little higher OBP and a little lower SLG than I expected, but around the same OPS number.

 

It depends on how you define unimpressive. If you define it using the connotations of disappointment then no, I'm not disappointed mostly because he's what I expected. At the same time, Fukudome isn't going to be one of those players who you would spend a lot of time talking about if he wasn't new. He locks you in good, consistent RF production. He doesn't have the talent level to be an All-Star even though he will make the team this year. He's simply a good asset to have on the team.

 

I don't see his production headed much further south. He dropped below .850 OPS for the first time on May 21st, and that was an .840 OPS. His OPS almost a month later is at .835. I see him ending up the year somewhere between an .800 and an .850 OPS.

[17 Seconds]

guys like fuko w/ little power but high obp hit leadoff. He would be one of the premier leadoff men in baseball based on his obp alone. He's just being used incorrectly as is Soriano.

 

I find it hilarious that you incorporate the Soriano argument into pretty much EVERY post you make. This thread has nothing to do with Soriano. thx

[RynoRules]

Among RFs, he seventh in VORP.

 

Matsui didn't hit for much power his first year over, either. .287/.353/.435 compared to Kosuke's .300/.409/.438.

 

Matsui's OPS+ was 109, Fukudome's is 120.

 

Matsui's SLG jumped almost 90 points in his second year. In other words, Fukudome's been great and he'll probably only get better.

 

This.

 

He's been great, and if your expectations were superstar level, then you set the bar too high from the start.

[Peoriaman]

He has been very, very good. As good a right fielder as there is in the league, excellent on-base guy, occasssional power and a terrific base runner. All this in his first year in a foreign country. I couldn't be more pleased. Edited June 15, 2008 by Peoriaman

[UK1679666180]

I'm pleased with Fukudome, this is what I expected from him his 1st year. I would like to see him let loose more ahead in the count, though.

[rawaction]

Among RFs, he seventh in VORP.

 

Matsui didn't hit for much power his first year over, either. .287/.353/.435 compared to Kosuke's .300/.409/.438.

 

Matsui's OPS+ was 109, Fukudome's is 120.

 

Matsui's SLG jumped almost 90 points in his second year. In other words, Fukudome's been great and he'll probably only get better.

 

This.

 

He's been great, and if your expectations were superstar level, then you set the bar too high from the start.

 

Exactly. His power numbers will get better. Heck, they already have. He hit a HR on opening day, and didn't hit another til May 10th. He hit 3 in a span of 12 games after that. For comparison's sake, since May 30th, Fukudome has hit 3 HRs. That's more than anyone else on the roster outside of Mark Derosa, who has 4. Ramirez has 0. Lee has 1. Pointing that out not to say he will be one of the team's best power hitters from here on out, but to point out that his power will increase as he goes around the league a 2nd and 3rd time. Kosuke's ISOP is still way below where it probably should and will be, but he's not Ryan Theriot out there.

[Little Slide Rooter]

This is pretty much what I was expecting when we got him, with maybe a little less power. He had that one ridiculous stretch, and then we were expecting more.