6/15 Cubs (Lilly) @ Blue Jays (Litsch) 12:07CT WGN TV/Radio

Roast · June 14, 2008

Laura told me since Rob is still MIA to go ahead and throw this one up, too. So here we go:

For the final game of the series we have:

http://chicago.cubs.mlb.com/images/players/mugshot/ph_150404.jpg

Theodore Roosevelt Lilly

(6-5) 5.13 ERA - 86 ERA+ - 1.354WHIP

vs.

http://chicago.cubs.mlb.com/images/players/mugshot/ph_446209.jpg

Jesse A. Litsch

(7-2) 3.42 ERA - 121 ERA+ - 1.284 WHIP

In other words, based on pitching match-ups we're screwed. But then again, we were supposed to be screwed today, too. So who knows. Let's just hope Good Lilly shows up.

Don't lose, losers.

Keener98 · June 15, 2008

Who the hell is Jesse Litsch? Hes put up some good numbers so far this year. Lets hope Lilly can keep the ball in the park.

C.C. · June 15, 2008

We got this series wrapped up. Cubs win 7-2.

CubColtPacer · June 15, 2008

Litsch is another guy with a superb walk rate. In fact, he has only walked 5 in his last 57 1/3 innings. :shock:

He is a guy that is hittable though, and will give up the long ball. His ERA is probably a little lower than it should be, and is being held up because he has stranded a crazy 83 percent of baserunners so far this year. He's a ground ball pitcher, but not an extreme one. Will strike out a few, but is a relatively low strikeout pitcher.

From looking over his stats, he reminds me a lot of Jason Marquis. The only big difference statistically is that Litsch has great control.

He also tends to not get into deep counts. Teams are only averaging 3.61 P/PA against him. In the games where he has had high pitch counts are typically the games where the other team gets a lot of baserunners on because of his ability to be hit.

So like Marquis, Litsch is the type of pitcher who you could jump on for a bunch early, you could get baserunners on every inning but can never seem to score them, or you could just get a lot of weak contact against. He's always going to be on the precipice because you never know when the big hit is going to come with runners on, or when he's going to be stranding people all day.

Fred Hornkohl · June 15, 2008

Worthless stats of the day for Sunday......

CUBS are 7-3 on Sundays

CUBS are 1-1 vs. Toronto

CUBS are 1-1 vs. the AL

CUBS are 8-8 when they've won their last 1 game(s) in a row

CUBS are 27-15 when they've won their previous game

CUBS are 13-9 in games that end a series

CUBS are 2-6-2 in road series

CUBS have won 1 consecutive series

CUBS are 23-11 in day games

CUBS are 15-17 on the road

CUBS are 29-18 against right handers

CUBS are 16-12 when WGN broadcasts the game

CUBS are 26-8 when they get a quality start.... 18-17 when they don't

CUBS are 13-17 when the opponent gets a quality start.... 31-8 when they don't

CUBS are 28-9 when they score first in the game.... 16-16 when they don't

CUBS are 16-3 when they score in the first inning.... 28-22 when they don't

CUBS are 33-16 when they don't allow any runs in the first inning.... 11-9 when they do

CUBS are 34-4 when they score at least 4 runs.... 9-21 when they don't

CUBS are 26-4 when they allow fewer than 4 runs.... 18-21 when they don't

CUBS are 38-3 when they outhit the opponents.... 3-18 when they get outhit.... and 3-4 when the hits are even

CUBS have drawn at least 2 BBs in 30 of their last 33 games

CUBS have only thrown out 1 runner trying to steal in 16 attempts during their last 36 games

CUBS are 22-0 when they get 12 hits or more..... 1-11 when they get less than 7 hits

CUBS have committed 15 errors in their last 18 games

CUBS have stolen 15 bases in 17 attempts during their last 16 games.

CUBS offense has been held to 3 runs or less 13 times this season..... Ted Lilly started 5 of those 10 games

CUBS have not seen Jeff Nelson behind the plate this year or last year.

CUBS' starting rotation......

                     Team                                                                      Run
Pitcher       GS   Record   Q/S    Q/S %       IP    # Pit    P/IP  IP/GS     P/GS     ERA   Suppt

Zambrano      15     9- 6    10    0.667     97.7     1553    15.9    6.5    103.5    3.13    5.67
Lilly         14     8- 6     6    0.429     79.0     1337    16.9    5.6     95.5    5.13    5.43
Dempster      14    11- 3     9    0.643     89.7     1440    16.1    6.4    102.9    2.81    6.57
Hill           5     3- 2     1    0.200     19.7      353    17.9    3.9     70.6    4.12    4.60
Marquis       13     8- 5     5    0.385     74.3     1177    15.8    5.7     90.5    4.36    5.92
Lieber         1     0- 1     0    0.000      2.0       49    24.5    2.0     49.0   22.50    0.00
Gallagher      7     5- 2     3    0.429     39.7      685    17.3    5.7     97.9    4.31    3.86

CUBS          69    44-25    34    0.493    402.0     6594    16.4    5.8     95.6    3.94    5.51

CUBS' pitching staff this year compared to the last 2 years........

        - - 2006 - -    - - 2007 - -    - - 2008 - -
        CUBS  Oppnt     CUBS  Oppnt     CUBS  Oppnt

ERA     4.781  3.901    4.041  4.232    3.630  5.096
IP     1430.7 1446.7   1447.7 1442.0    629.7  616.3
H        1396   1497     1340   1530      575    684
R         834    716      690    752      275    380
ER        760    627      650    678      254    349
BB        687    395      573    500      234    283
K        1250    928     1211   1054      520    489
HR        210    166      165    151       66     75
BB/9     4.32   2.46     3.56   3.12     3.34   4.13
K/9      7.86   5.77     7.53   6.58     7.43   7.14
HR/9     1.32   1.03     1.03   0.94     0.94   1.10
WHIP     1.46   1.31     1.32   1.41     1.28   1.57
# Pit   24619  22583    23515  23421    10306  10783
#P/IP    17.2   15.6     16.2   16.2     16.4   17.5

CUBS are 8-6 when Lilly starts

Lilly is 6 of 14 in quality starts

Lilly has 2 consecutive quality start(s)

Lilly's ERA pitching to Soto is 5.40.... to Blanco it's 4.50

CUBS score 5.51 R/G overall.... 5.43 R/G when Lilly pitches

CUBS hit 1.09 HR/G overall.... 1.14 HR/G when Lilly pitches

CUBS' offensive support of Lilly.....

03/31 - 06/14      AB    R    H   2b   3b   HR   TB  RBI   BB   SO     BA    OBP    SLG    OPS
CUBS w/Lilly      497   76  138   29    0   16  215   75   60   91  0.278  0.355  0.433  0.787
CUBS overall     2420  380  684  145    8   75 1070  360  283  489  0.283  0.361  0.442  0.804

Composite scoring in games started by Lilly.........

                  1   2   3   4   5   6   7   8   9  10  11  12  13  14  15  16    Total

CUBS              1   6  13  16   4   6  14  12   2   0   0   2   0   0   0   0      76
Opponents        11   5   4  13  10   9   4   7   4   0   1   0   0   0   0   0      68

Lilly's starts this year (5-5)

Lilly                   IP    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    PC  BB/9   K/9  HR/9  WHIP   ERA
04/02  vs. Milw        4.7    5    4    4    0    4    1    77  0.00  7.71  1.93  1.07  7.71
04/07  vs. Pitts       3.7    7    5    5    2    1    0    80  4.91  2.45  0.00  2.45 12.27
04/12  vs. Phila       4.3    7    5    5    2    3    2    86  4.15  6.23  4.15  2.08 10.38
04/17  vs. Cincy       6.0    6    5    5    3    6    1    94  4.50  9.00  1.50  1.50  7.50
04/22  vs. Mets        6.0    4    1    1    4    4    0   107  6.00  6.00  0.00  1.33  1.50
04/27  vs. Wash        6.0    4    2    2    2    7    0   108  3.00 10.50  0.00  1.00  3.00
05/03  vs. St. L       7.0    6    3    3    1    4    2   112  1.29  5.14  2.57  1.00  3.86
05/09  vs. Ariz        7.0    3    1    1    2   10    1   104  2.57 12.86  1.29  0.71  1.29
05/14  vs. S.D.        6.0    6    4    4    1   11    0   102  1.50 16.50  0.00  1.17  6.00
05/19  vs. Houst       5.7    4    2    2    2    6    0    95  3.18  9.53  0.00  1.06  3.18
05/25  vs. Pitts       6.0   10    4    4    2    2    3   101  3.00  3.00  4.50  2.00  6.00
05/30  vs. Colo        3.0    8    7    4    0    3    2    62  0.00  9.00  6.00  2.67 12.00
06/04  vs. S.D.        7.3    7    2    2    2    8    1   110  2.45  9.82  1.23  1.23  2.45
06/10  vs. Atla        6.7    4    3    3    3    8    1    98  4.05 10.80  1.35  1.05  4.05

Home                  39.3   36   25   22   13   46    6   644  2.97 10.53  1.37  1.25  5.03
Road                  40.0   45   23   23   13   31    8   692  2.93  6.98  1.80  1.45  5.18

Day                   49.3   53   32   29   16   41   10   845  2.92  7.48  1.82  1.40  5.29
Nite                  30.0   28   16   16   10   36    4   491  3.00 10.80  1.20  1.27  4.80

Road  Day             22.7   27   14   14    7   14    5   401  2.78  5.56  1.99  1.50  5.56

April                 30.7   33   22   22   13   25    4   552  3.82  7.34  1.17  1.50  6.46
May                   34.7   37   21   18    8   36    8   576  2.08  9.35  2.08  1.30  4.67
June                  14.0   11    5    5    5   16    2   208  3.21 10.29  1.29  1.14  3.21

season totals         79.3   81   48   45   26   77   14  1336  2.95  8.74  1.59  1.35  5.11

CUBS' bullpen load during the last week.....

              Sat        Fri        Thur       Wed        Tue        Mon        Sun           Totals
             14 Jun     13 Jun     12 Jun     11 Jun     10 Jun     09 Jun     08 Jun
             @ Toro     @ Toro     vs Atla    vs Atla    vs Atla    no game    @ L.A.  
pitcher        IP Pit     IP Pit     IP Pit     IP Pit     IP Pit     IP Pit     IP Pit        IP Pit

Eyre                     1.0  14    0.7  15               0.3   6                             2.0  35
Howry         1.0  20                                     0.7  17                             1.7  37
Lieber                                                    1.0  18                             1.0  18
Marmol        1.0  20               0.7  12               0.3   3               1.7  36       3.7  71
Wood                                2.0  33                                     1.0  11       3.0  44
Wuertz                   1.7  29                                                              1.7  29
Cotts                    0.3   1    0.7  16                                                   1.0  17

Totals        2.0  40    3.0  44    4.0  76               2.3  44               2.7  47      14.0 251

CUBS' season series vs. Toronto this year (1-1) .......

Gm#    Date       Opponent         Score  Starter         Opp Starter
.68  Fri 06/13  @ Toronto       N   2- 3  Zambrano        Burnett       
.69  Sat 06/14  @ Toronto           6- 2  Marquis         Halladay      
.70  Sun 06/15  @ Toronto            -    Lilly           Litsch

CUBS' last 10 games (6-4)..............

Gm#    Date       Opponent         Score  Starter         Opp Starter
.60  Wed 06/04  @ San Diego     N   1- 2  Lilly           Maddux        
.61  Thu 06/05  @ Los Angeles   N   5- 4  Dempster        Billingsley   
.62  Fri 06/06  @ Los Angeles   N   0- 3  Gallagher       Kuroda        
.63  Sat 06/07  @ Los Angeles       3- 7  Zambrano        Lowe          
.64  Sun 06/08  @ Los Angeles       3- 1  Marquis         Penny         
.65  Tue 06/10    Atlanta       N  10- 5  Lilly           Glavine       
.66  Wed 06/11    Atlanta       N   7- 2  Dempster        Bennett       
.67  Thu 06/12    Atlanta           3- 2  Gallagher       Hudson        
.68  Fri 06/13  @ Toronto       N   2- 3  Zambrano        Burnett       
.69  Sat 06/14  @ Toronto           6- 2  Marquis         Halladay

Composite scoring during the last 10 games.........

                  1   2   3   4   5   6   7   8   9  10  11  12  13  14  15  16    Total

CUBS              4   9   6   5   4   2   3   4   2   0   1   0   0   0   0   0      40
Opponents         6   2   3   1   2   4   7   5   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0      31

CUBS' hitters during the last 10 games......

06/04 - 06/14      AB    R    H   2b   3b   HR  RBI   BB   SO     BA    OBP    SLG    OPS  BABIP  P/PA   IsoD   RBI%
DeRosa             33    4   11    0    0    2    5    3    8  0.333  0.389  0.515  0.904  0.391  3.72  0.056  0.188
Fukudome           34    7    8    0    0    2    6    8    4  0.235  0.381  0.412  0.793  0.214  4.29  0.146  0.200
Edmonds            29    1    9    1    0    1    6    2    7  0.310  0.344  0.448  0.792  0.381  3.84  0.033  0.455
Soriano            26    6    7    1    0    1    1    2   10  0.269  0.345  0.423  0.768  0.400  3.69  0.076  0.000
D Lee              36    4    9    1    1    1    3    6   10  0.250  0.341  0.417  0.758  0.320  4.07  0.091  0.154
Johnson            13    1    3    0    0    1    7    0    2  0.231  0.267  0.462  0.728  0.200  3.13  0.036  0.667
Soto               31    2    8    0    0    1    3    3    8  0.258  0.324  0.355  0.678  0.318  4.06  0.065  0.105
Ramirez            36    7    8    1    0    0    3    6    6  0.222  0.349  0.250  0.599  0.267  4.49  0.127  0.143
Theriot            36    2    9    2    0    0    3    1    3  0.250  0.270  0.306  0.576  0.273  3.41  0.020  0.176
Fontenot           15    3    3    1    0    0    0    0    4  0.200  0.250  0.267  0.517  0.273  4.35  0.050  0.000
E Patterson         8    0    2    0    0    0    1    0    2  0.250  0.250  0.250  0.500  0.333  3.13  0.000  0.333
Cedeno             11    1    2    0    0    0    0    0    5  0.182  0.182  0.182  0.364  0.333  3.55  0.000  0.000
Blanco              8    1    1    0    0    0    0    0    3  0.125  0.125  0.125  0.250  0.200  4.63  0.000  0.000
Hoffpauir           3    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    3  0.000  0.250  0.000  0.250  0.000  4.50  0.250  0.000

vs. S.D.           29    1    4    0    0    0    1    0    7  0.138  0.133  0.138  0.271  0.182  3.23 -0.005  0.167
vs. L.A.          131   11   29    5    0    4   11   11   38  0.221  0.287  0.351  0.638  0.281  4.00  0.065  0.117
vs. Atla          102   20   32    2    0    4   20   14   20  0.314  0.397  0.451  0.848  0.359  3.82  0.083  0.291
vs. Toro           74    8   19    1    1    1    7    7   19  0.257  0.337  0.338  0.675  0.333  4.17  0.081  0.136

last 10 games     336   40   84    8    1    9   39   32   84  0.250  0.321  0.360  0.681  0.309  3.92  0.071  0.182
season totals    2418  380  684  145    8   75  358  283  489  0.283  0.362  0.443  0.804  0.328  3.87  0.079  0.199

CUBS' pitchers during the last 10 games......

06/04 - 06/14        IP    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    PC  BB/9   K/9  HR/9  WHIP   ERA
Marmol              5.0    1    0    0    2    8    0    87  3.60 14.40  0.00  0.60  0.00
Wood                4.0    2    0    0    2    8    0    71  4.50 18.00  0.00  1.00  0.00
Cotts               3.3    2    0    0    1    3    0    48  2.70  8.10  0.00  0.90  0.00
Eyre                2.7    1    0    0    1    6    0    46  3.38 20.25  0.00  0.75  0.00
Lieber              2.0    1    0    0    1    0    0    29  4.50  0.00  0.00  1.00  0.00
Wuertz              1.7    3    0    0    0    0    0    29  0.00  0.00  0.00  1.80  0.00
Marquis            13.3    7    2    1    3    3    0   167  2.03  2.03  0.00  0.75  0.68
Dempster           14.3    9    5    5    2   12    2   201  1.26  7.53  1.26  0.77  3.14
Lilly              14.0   11    5    5    5   16    2   208  3.21 10.29  1.29  1.14  3.21
Gallagher          10.0   10    5    5    5   11    2   189  4.50  9.90  1.80  1.50  4.50
Zambrano           13.7   21    9    9    4    9    3   210  2.63  5.93  1.98  1.83  5.93
Hart                1.3    4    1    1    1    1    0    40  6.75  6.75  0.00  3.75  6.75
Howry               2.7    7    4    4    0    2    1    52  0.00  6.75  3.38  2.63 13.50

vs. S.D.            8.0    7    2    2    2    9    1   118  2.25 10.13  1.13  1.13  2.25
vs. L.A.           34.0   32   15   14   10   28    4   557  2.65  7.41  1.06  1.24  3.71
vs. Atla           29.0   24    9    9   10   32    3   440  3.10  9.93  0.93  1.17  2.79
vs. Toro           17.0   16    5    5    5   10    2   262  2.65  5.29  1.06  1.24  2.65

last 10 games      88.0   79   31   30   27   79   10  1377  2.76  8.08  1.02  1.20  3.07
season totals     630.3  574  275  252  234  520   67 10295  3.34  7.42  0.96  1.28  3.60

Patience is a virtue.........

03/31 - 06/14        P   PA  P/PA
Ward               160   34  4.71
Fukudome          1220  285  4.28
Ramirez           1184  284  4.17
Fontenot           450  108  4.17
Soto              1022  258  3.96
Cedeno             445  113  3.94
D Lee             1219  310  3.93
Johnson            782  199  3.93
DeRosa            1004  260  3.86
Edmonds            260   69  3.77
Theriot           1043  286  3.65
Pie                253   70  3.61
Murton              54   15  3.60
Blanco             180   50  3.60
Soriano            816  232  3.52
E Patterson         47   14  3.36
Hoffpauir           77   24  3.21

CUBS             10781 2786  3.87

Percentage of baserunners driven in........

03/31 - 06/14      BDI  LOB   RBI%
Edmonds             11   26  0.297
Johnson             28   70  0.286
Ramirez             33   98  0.252
Soriano             25   75  0.250
Cedeno              18   57  0.240
Ward                 5   17  0.227
Soto                31  127  0.196
D Lee               27  117  0.188
Fukudome            23  102  0.184
DeRosa              28  126  0.182
Murton               4   18  0.182
E Patterson          2    9  0.182
Fontenot            10   50  0.167
Theriot             16   86  0.157
Hoffpauir            1    7  0.125
Pie                  6   44  0.120
Blanco               3   30  0.091

CUBS               283 1139  0.199

CUBS' magic numbers:

St. Louis      90
Milwaukee      87
Houston        84
Pittsburgh     84
Cincinnati     83

Go CUBS !!!

Ski · June 15, 2008

If Lilly can have a good first inning and we can score early, I'll feel very confident about this game.

Omar · June 15, 2008

Cubs Vs. Litsch

Never faced 'em.

Blue Jays Vs. Lilly

                     **PA**  AB  H  2B 3B HR RBI  BB  SO   BA   OBP   SLG   OPS  
+-----------------+-------+---+---+--+--+--+---+---+---+-----+-----+-----+-----+
David Eckstein       36    34   5  1  0  0   1   2   4  .147  .194  .176  .370 
Kevin Mench          29    26   6  2  0  0   4   2   2  .231  .276  .308  .584 
John McDonald        12    12   2  0  0  0   0   0   0  .167  .167  .167  .334 
Brad Wilkerson       12    11   2  1  0  0   0   1   5  .182  .250  .273  .523 
Rod Barajas           9     8   0  0  0  0   1   0   1  .000  .000  .000  .000 
Scott Rolen           9     9   3  2  0  0   3   0   1  .333  .333  .556  .889 
Vernon Wells          9     7   2  1  0  0   1   2   1  .286  .444  .429  .873 
Marco Scutaro         8     8   1  1  0  0   0   0   0  .125  .125  .250  .375 
A.J. Burnett          2     2   0  0  0  0   0   0   2  .000  .000  .000  .000 
Matt Stairs           2     2   1  0  0  0   1   0   0  .500  .500  .500 1.000 
+-----------------+-------+---+---+--+--+--+---+---+---+-----+-----+-----+-----+
Total               128   119  22  8  0  0  11   7  16  .185  .227  .252  .479

Little Slide Rooter · June 15, 2008

Ah yes, Mr. Unpredictable Ted Lilly. The man just as likely to give up 7 runs in 2 innings as he is to be lights out.

rawaction · June 15, 2008

Litsch is another guy with a superb walk rate. In fact, he has only walked 5 in his last 57 1/3 innings. :shock:

He is a guy that is hittable though, and will give up the long ball. His ERA is probably a little lower than it should be, and is being held up because he has stranded a crazy 83 percent of baserunners so far this year. He's a ground ball pitcher, but not an extreme one. Will strike out a few, but is a relatively low strikeout pitcher.

From looking over his stats, he reminds me a lot of Jason Marquis. The only big difference statistically is that Litsch has great control.

He also tends to not get into deep counts. Teams are only averaging 3.61 P/PA against him. In the games where he has had high pitch counts are typically the games where the other team gets a lot of baserunners on because of his ability to be hit.

So like Marquis, Litsch is the type of pitcher who you could jump on for a bunch early, you could get baserunners on every inning but can never seem to score them, or you could just get a lot of weak contact against. He's always going to be on the precipice because you never know when the big hit is going to come with runners on, or when he's going to be stranding people all day.

Good scouting report. I'm guessing he has a good changeup, because he only has 11 Ks in 130 ABs vs. RH hitters. 31 in 170 vs. lefties. Still, LH hitters have been 70 OPS points better vs. Litsch. Probably not a guy the Cubs are gonna get to before the 2nd time thru the lineup. But being that he's not a strikeout pitcher, the Cubs should be able to wait him out and still get some good swings with 2 strikes. So yeah, Lilly has to have a strong start to the game. I'm hoping that going against his former team will get the adrenaline going, in a good way for Ted.

Looking thru the boxscores, the guys that seem to have the most success against Litsch are the guys who cut down their swings. He's given up 34 hits in his last 4 starts, but most of those hits have NOT come from guys that typically put up big numbers. So, guys like Theriot, Fukudome, and Derosa could have good showings today.

bukie · June 15, 2008

Man, this Blue Jays roster is a who's who of "what ever happened to that guy?" ball players. Matt Stairs, Lyle Overbay, Scott Rolen, David Eckstein, Brad Wilkerson, Kevin Mench, Rod Barajas, Scott Downs, A.J. Burnett. The team is built around Wells, Halladay and RIos, with the rest filled in with inexpensive role-player vets. I suppose that's one way to do it when the payroll is so limited.

BigSlick · June 15, 2008

Man, this Blue Jays roster is a who's who of "what ever happened to that guy?" ball players. Matt Stairs, Lyle Overbay, Scott Rolen, David Eckstein, Brad Wilkerson, Kevin Mench, Rod Barajas, Scott Downs, A.J. Burnett. The team is built around Wells, Halladay and RIos, with the rest filled in with inexpensive role-player vets. I suppose that's one way to do it when the payroll is so limited.

They used to have such a superb offense, too, now they struggle to score runs on a consistent basis. Baseball is a fickle thing.

CubColtPacer · June 15, 2008

Litsch is another guy with a superb walk rate. In fact, he has only walked 5 in his last 57 1/3 innings. :shock:

He is a guy that is hittable though, and will give up the long ball. His ERA is probably a little lower than it should be, and is being held up because he has stranded a crazy 83 percent of baserunners so far this year. He's a ground ball pitcher, but not an extreme one. Will strike out a few, but is a relatively low strikeout pitcher.

From looking over his stats, he reminds me a lot of Jason Marquis. The only big difference statistically is that Litsch has great control.

He also tends to not get into deep counts. Teams are only averaging 3.61 P/PA against him. In the games where he has had high pitch counts are typically the games where the other team gets a lot of baserunners on because of his ability to be hit.

So like Marquis, Litsch is the type of pitcher who you could jump on for a bunch early, you could get baserunners on every inning but can never seem to score them, or you could just get a lot of weak contact against. He's always going to be on the precipice because you never know when the big hit is going to come with runners on, or when he's going to be stranding people all day.

Good scouting report. I'm guessing he has a good changeup, because he only has 11 Ks in 130 ABs vs. RH hitters. 31 in 170 vs. lefties. Still, LH hitters have been 70 OPS points better vs. Litsch. Probably not a guy the Cubs are gonna get to before the 2nd time thru the lineup. But being that he's not a strikeout pitcher, the Cubs should be able to wait him out and still get some good swings with 2 strikes. So yeah, Lilly has to have a strong start to the game. I'm hoping that going against his former team will get the adrenaline going, in a good way for Ted.

Looking thru the boxscores, the guys that seem to have the most success against Litsch are the guys who cut down their swings. He's given up 34 hits in his last 4 starts, but most of those hits have NOT come from guys that typically put up big numbers. So, guys like Theriot, Fukudome, and Derosa could have good showings today.

Thanks for the good detailed info there.

If Lou is going to give Fukudome a DH start, this might be the one. DeRosa sliding to RF, Fontenot to 2nd. Then one of Johnson/Hoffpauir/Patterson in LF. The lineup order would then be completely dictated by who was playing in LF (Johnson would bat at leadoff while Patterson would bat at 9th, and Hoffpauir would probably bat in the middle of the order. Whichever one it is makes all the other pieces change to fit Lou's philosophy on lineup order).

I guess we'll find out in a few minutes.

Jon · June 15, 2008

Gotta love Edmonds batting 5th in front of two better hitters.

Cubs

R. Johnson lf

K. Fukudome rf

D. Lee dh

A. Ramirez 3b

J. Edmonds cf

G. Soto c

M. DeRosa 2b

M. Hoffpauir 1b

R. Theriot ss

Blue Jays

A. Rios rf

M. Scutaro 2b

S. Rolen 3b

V. Wells cf

K. Mench lf

R. Barajas c

B. Wilkerson 1b

G. Zaun dh

J. McDonald ss

Sammy Sofa · June 15, 2008

Gotta love Edmonds batting 5th in front of two better hitters.

Cubs

R. Johnson lf
K. Fukudome rf
D. Lee dh
A. Ramirez 3b
J. Edmonds cf
G. Soto c
M. DeRosa 2b
M. Hoffpauir 1b
R. Theriot ss

Glargh.

That said, yesterday's lineup also horrified me, but hey, look how that turned out.

Roast · June 15, 2008

Gotta love Edmonds batting 5th in front of two better hitters.

Cubs

R. Johnson lf
K. Fukudome rf
D. Lee dh
A. Ramirez 3b
J. Edmonds cf
G. Soto c
M. DeRosa 2b
M. Hoffpauir 1b
R. Theriot ss

Glargh.

That said, yesterday's lineup also horrified me, but hey, look how that turned out.

I like this one better than yesterday's. But then again, That's like saying i prefer eating stale bread to dog crap.

Fred Hornkohl · June 15, 2008

Here's the production from the starting lineup............

03/31 - 06/14      AB    R    H   2b   3b   HR  RBI   BB   SO     BA    OBP    SLG    OPS  BABIP  P/PA   IsoD   RBI%
Johnson           171   29   45   10    0    3   31   13   28  0.263  0.340  0.374  0.714  0.300  3.93  0.077  0.286
Fukudome          237   44   70   13    2    5   28   45   41  0.295  0.405  0.430  0.835  0.340  4.28  0.110  0.184
D Lee             280   47   80   17    2   14   41   27   46  0.286  0.345  0.511  0.856  0.300  3.93  0.059  0.188
Ramirez           236   48   72   19    0    9   42   40   41  0.305  0.419  0.500  0.919  0.339  4.17  0.114  0.252
Edmonds            64    4   19    5    1    2   13    4   11  0.297  0.333  0.500  0.833  0.333  3.77  0.036  0.297
Soto              222   25   64   19    1   11   42   33   60  0.288  0.376  0.532  0.908  0.351  3.96  0.088  0.196
DeRosa            220   40   67   13    0    8   36   30   50  0.305  0.391  0.473  0.864  0.364  3.86  0.087  0.182
Hoffpauir          22    4    8    3    0    0    1    1    9  0.364  0.417  0.500  0.917  0.615  3.21  0.053  0.125
Theriot           251   40   78   11    1    1   17   32   23  0.311  0.389  0.375  0.764  0.339  3.65  0.079  0.157

Totals           1703  281  503  110    7   53  251  225  309  0.295  0.381  0.462  0.842  0.336  3.95  0.703  0.207

.... and their road splits...........

03/31 - 06/14      AB    R    H   2b   3b   HR  RBI   BB   SO     BA    OBP    SLG    OPS  BABIP  P/PA   IsoD   RBI%
Johnson            78   15   19    4    0    2   12    6   12  0.244  0.330  0.372  0.701  0.266  3.89  0.086  0.244
Fukudome          112   13   23    4    1    1    8   19   18  0.205  0.316  0.286  0.602  0.237  4.24  0.110  0.123
D Lee             133   18   38   10    2    2   17   20   26  0.286  0.374  0.436  0.810  0.343  3.99  0.088  0.221
Ramirez           119   15   34    9    0    5   23    9   19  0.286  0.348  0.487  0.836  0.305  4.08  0.063  0.225
Edmonds            39    1   10    3    0    0    4    3    5  0.256  0.310  0.333  0.643  0.294  3.67  0.053  0.267
Soto              106    9   30   10    0    5   15   15   29  0.283  0.372  0.519  0.891  0.347  4.05  0.089  0.149
DeRosa            104   14   24    5    0    4   14   13   28  0.231  0.317  0.394  0.711  0.278  3.84  0.086  0.152
Hoffpauir          11    1    3    2    0    0    0    1    5  0.273  0.385  0.455  0.839  0.500  3.46  0.112  0.000
Theriot           118   14   32    4    0    0    7   17    8  0.271  0.363  0.305  0.668  0.291  3.56  0.092  0.137

Totals            820  100  213   51    3   19  100  103  150  0.260  0.346  0.399  0.745  0.298  3.93  0.779  0.180

CubColtPacer · June 15, 2008

I don't really understand the complaining about the lineup. It's mostly a standard Cubs lineup with a few exceptions:

Johnson batting 1st: Ok, I can see why you think this is a major problem.

Fukudome batting 2nd: isn't this a good thing?

Edmonds batting 5th: he bats in front of DeRosa every day, so that's nothing new. Being in front of Soto-not crazy about it, but Edmonds is scorching hot this month, so it's not something to particularly worry about.

Hoffpauir 8th: basically the DH. He's finally behind Soto and DeRosa. I think this is a good change.

Theriot 9th: scuffling lately and against a right-hander. Good time to hide him by batting in the 9 spot.

So really I don't get the problem. Reed Johnson batting 1st is the only thing I see as a major error. This is a good overall lineup, at least IMO. I don't think it's anything close to what we had yesterday.

Outshined_One · June 15, 2008

Reed Johnson playing against a RHP period annoys me.

Ski · June 15, 2008

Didn't see it in Fred's stats...how many wins are the Cubs on pace for? High 90s, 100ish?

Fred Hornkohl · June 15, 2008

Didn't see it in Fred's stats...how many wins are the Cubs on pace for? High 90s, 100ish?

103

Ski · June 15, 2008

Didn't see it in Fred's stats...how many wins are the Cubs on pace for? High 90s, 100ish?

103

Awesome.

Let's make it 20 over today!

BigSlick · June 15, 2008

Hahahha, Baseball Tonight has got it all reversed. Said the Cubs have the best rotation in the NL, yet the Phillies have the best offense and bullpen.

Ridiculous, our bullpen bar none is the best perhaps in the league, and our offense is definitely the best in Major League Baseball. Our rotation is definitely our shakiest area.

Now i'm reminded why I don't watch this show much.

vance_the_cubs_fan · June 15, 2008

They're showing clips from the throw-back game on the lead-off man if anyone is interested.

Also, Bruce Miles is supposed to be a guest.

Ski · June 15, 2008

Hahahha, Baseball Tonight has got it all reversed. Said the Cubs have the best rotation in the NL, yet the Phillies have the best offense and bullpen.

Ridiculous, our bullpen bar none is the best perhaps in the league, and our offense is definitely the best in Major League Baseball. Our rotation is definitely our shakiest area.

Now i'm reminded why I don't watch this show much.

I'd say that if Lilly and Marquis can pick it up, our rotation is very solid. Zambrano and Dempster have been very good all year long, Marquis and Lilly have been showing signs of improvement. Marquis has been more aggressive and therefore way more effective, and Lilly will be great if he can do well in the 1st and not give up so many home runs. Gallagher has earned a spot in the rotation. He didn't pitch bad Friday, or that one game when we lost 3-0 against the Dodgers, he just didn't get run support. He's had like, what, 1 bad start all season?

CubColtPacer · June 15, 2008

Hahahha, Baseball Tonight has got it all reversed. Said the Cubs have the best rotation in the NL, yet the Phillies have the best offense and bullpen.

Ridiculous, our bullpen bar none is the best perhaps in the league, and our offense is definitely the best in Major League Baseball. Our rotation is definitely our shakiest area.

Now i'm reminded why I don't watch this show much.

They're going straight by the statistics, not by the talent level.

The Cubs have the best ERA by a starting rotation in the National League.

The Phillies have the best ERA in the bullpen.

And the Cubs and Phillies have been trading the offensive total back and forth over the last week, so it really depends on which day they took their data from.

So they weren't wrong. They were just looking at it straight from the stats, not necessarily looking at who might be better in the future.

6/15 Cubs (Lilly) @ Blue Jays (Litsch) 12:07CT WGN TV/Radio

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