Dayn Perry: "Are the Cubs for real?"

[ChiCubsfan0502]

A pretty good statisical breakdown of the team. He usually is way off base but he is pretty spot on in this article. IMO.

 

http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/8159418?MSNHPHMA

[erik316wttn]

I worry that the rotation, outside of Z, isn't strong enough to get us very far in October, assuming we make the playoffs.

[JonnyRed]

I agree...possibly the best article on the emergence of the Cubs that I've seen. You have to love that we are winning with the perfect balance between hitting, pitching and defense. that alone shows me that the Cubs are a serious contender come the pennant drive.

 

If we look at who is over and under performing their norm, I come up with:

 

Overperforming:

-Ryan Dempster: No one saw this type of performance coming

-The Riot: Most on this board wanted him benched to start the season, he'll likely return to be a .280 hitter though

-Soto: He's good, probably even very-good, but can a rookie catcher really lead our team in RBI and OBP?

-DeRosa: Slightly better than expected

- (Some might put Marmol in this category, but he proved last season how dominant he can be, so while we do need to lower his innings as Perry points out, I expect this level of peformance)

 

Underperforming/yet to produce:

- Howry: History says he should be much better than this

- Eyre: Just welcoming him back to the team

- CF in general: Johnson has been good for the most part, but Pie didn't deliver and Edmonds might rebound for us

- Marquis

- Hill

 

Overall, I think it's a pretty good balance, and as guys come back to their means, I don't see our overall production changing much. Plus, I love how when one or even two of our big bats are cold, we've got another 2 guys to keep the pace.

 

We also have depth in the right places if the following guys stumble:

- Marquis: Marshall and Hart

- Wood: Marmol

- Theriot: Cedeno

- Johnson: Edomonds, Pie (okay, we could still upgrade here)

 

Overall, I don't see any reason why the Cubs can't maintain a 95 win pace.

[Roast]

I worry that the rotation, outside of Z, isn't strong enough to get us very far in October, assuming we make the playoffs.

Well, I'm inclined to agree with you but then again if Hill ever re-learns how to throw strikes and Lilly can continue pitching like he has been we at least have a strong 1-3.

 

Of course,that's a lot of if's. But I think they're all fairly plausible.

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

I just hope a trade might offset the decline of Dempster and others.

[Ding Dong Johnson]

wow, I just read an entire Dayn Perry article

[JonnyRed]

I worry that the rotation, outside of Z, isn't strong enough to get us very far in October, assuming we make the playoffs.

 

I see the rotation being the one area we need to strengthen by the deadline. If our focus is on how to beat the Diamondbacks, we can't afford to have any holes in our starting pitching. Ideally, we need a #2 starter, but I don't think any will be available. Who will the best options be?

 

AJ Burnett

Greg Maddux (he could fill the 5th starter's role and provide long relief in the playoffs

Others?

[C.C.]

I made the mistake of reading readers comments. Idiots.

[C.C.]

I worry that the rotation, outside of Z, isn't strong enough to get us very far in October, assuming we make the playoffs.

 

I see the rotation being the one area we need to strengthen by the deadline. If our focus is on how to beat the Diamondbacks, we can't afford to have any holes in our starting pitching. Ideally, we need a #2 starter, but I don't think any will be available. Who will the best options be?

 

AJ Burnett

Greg Maddux (he could fill the 5th starter's role and provide long relief in the playoffs

Others?

 

 

How about Rich Hill

[daske17]

I made the mistake of reading readers comments. Idiots.

 

AS FAR AS CUBS FANS ARE CONCERNED...THERE A SHAME TO THE GAME OF BASEBALL..SO ALL YOU CUBS FANS CAN ROT IN ####

 

Stay classy Fox Sports message boards! :good:

[VanceJergins]

I just hope a trade might offset the decline of Dempster and others.

 

Yeah, if we can trade for another solid starter, I'll like our chances.

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

I worry that the rotation, outside of Z, isn't strong enough to get us very far in October, assuming we make the playoffs.

 

I see the rotation being the one area we need to strengthen by the deadline. If our focus is on how to beat the Diamondbacks, we can't afford to have any holes in our starting pitching. Ideally, we need a #2 starter, but I don't think any will be available. Who will the best options be?

 

AJ Burnett

Greg Maddux (he could fill the 5th starter's role and provide long relief in the playoffs

Others?

 

 

Padilla, Millwood, and Harden might all be available.

[AlwaysaCub]

Dayn Perry looks kinda emo in his picture.

 

And just so everyone doesn't forget, he is an out and out Cardinals fan so consider that when reading his evaluations of the Cubs.

[mul21]

Unless we end up with one of the elite guys possibly being available, I see no reason to go get a guy just to get a guy. The only upgrades to what we have in house at this point would be Harden if he's healthy and Burnett, unless there's somebody else available I haven't heard about. There's no sense in adding a 4-5 guy when we have about 4 internal options to fill those spots that are as good or better than anything out there.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

He's a bit more pessimistic than I am, but Perry hit it dead on. If anything gets the Cubs, it will be the pitching, especially the rotation.

 

Rich Hill still had control problems at Iowa, and I think it's reasonable to say that it's a real issue at this point. Combine it with potential health problems now, and there's a very good chance we've lost our No. 2 pitcher.

 

After Lilly and Zambrano now, we have a lot of guys capable of putting up ERAs in the high 4s (i.e. not good but not horrible). Ideally, two of them maintain that and a third takes a step forward. So far, Dempster has been the step forward guy, but I don't think any of us expect him to keep it up. Lieber, Gallagher, Marshall, Marquis, Dempster. I put them all in the same rough band of pitching, and we'd like to get overperformance and two adequate seasons out of the three.

 

There is only one realistic path (outside of catastrophic injury problems) that leads to the Cubs losing the division or missing the playoffs: Mediocre back end of the rotation + CF never working itself out and SS regressing + bad luck/pythagorean underperformance + someone in the division getting lucky and overperforming.

 

It's not a really likely path, which is why most projection models have the Cubs at 75+% in the playoffs.

[third eye]

He's a bit more pessimistic than I am, but Perry hit it dead on. If anything gets the Cubs, it will be the pitching, especially the rotation.

 

Rich Hill still had control problems at Iowa, and I think it's reasonable to say that it's a real issue at this point. Combine it with potential health problems now, and there's a very good chance we've lost our No. 2 pitcher.

 

After Lilly and Zambrano now, we have a lot of guys capable of putting up ERAs in the high 4s (i.e. not good but not horrible). Ideally, two of them maintain that and a third takes a step forward. So far, Dempster has been the step forward guy, but I don't think any of us expect him to keep it up. Lieber, Gallagher, Marshall, Marquis, Dempster. I put them all in the same rough band of pitching, and we'd like to get overperformance and two adequate seasons out of the three.

 

There is only one realistic path (outside of catastrophic injury problems) that leads to the Cubs losing the division or missing the playoffs: Mediocre back end of the rotation + CF never working itself out and SS regressing + bad luck/pythagorean underperformance + someone in the division getting lucky and overperforming.

 

It's not a really likely path, which is why most projection models have the Cubs at 75+% in the playoffs.

 

 

Personally, I have a lot of confidence that Hill will put it back together in AAA the way he did in 2006 and return to have a great second half. If he can have a repeat performance of 2006 (or even close), I honestly see no reason, barring other injuries, that this team can't reach the mid-90s in wins.

[17 Seconds]

I really think this team is just a #2 starter away from being a legit World Series contender. Without that #2 starter though, I don't really see it.

[third eye]

I really think this team is just a #2 starter away from being a legit World Series contender. Without that #2 starter though, I don't really see it.

 

Agreed, but Burnett and Harden are really the only ones who fit that bill. And based on the way the A's are going, it doesnt look like Harden will be available. Burnett may be the only option unless Hill steps up again (which I see as a more likely outcome). Unfortunately, I think the Cubs' brass may see Dempster as that guy based on his early season success, and that is what worries me the most.

[Brett]

I really think this team is just a #2 starter away from being a legit World Series contender. Without that #2 starter though, I don't really see it.

 

Agreed, but Burnett and Harden are really the only ones who fit that bill. And based on the way the A's are going, it doesnt look like Harden will be available. Burnett may be the only option unless Hill steps up again (which I see as a more likely outcome). Unfortunately, I think the Cubs' brass may see Dempster as that guy based on his early season success, and that is what worries me the most.

 

And both of those two have serious injuries concerns.

[biittner77]

wow, I just read an entire Dayn Perry article

 

Did it tell you anything you didn't already know?

[Post Count Padder]

I don't read Dayn Perry articles, they make me dumber.

[CubinNY]

The Cubs are for real. However, they are a good team, not a great team (great meaning over 90 wins). To be great they will need to get better production out of CF. Also, I'm not at all impressed with Fukudome. The pitching staff will be fine once they drop Marquis and Put Hill back where he belongs.

[jersey cubs fan]

The Cubs are for real. However, they are a good team, not a great team (great meaning over 90 wins). To be great they will need to get better production out of CF. Also, I'm not at all impressed with Fukudome. The pitching staff will be fine once they drop Marquis and Put Hill back where he belongs.

 

You are weird.

[Roast]

The Cubs are for real. However, they are a good team, not a great team (great meaning over 90 wins). To be great they will need to get better production out of CF. Also, I'm not at all impressed with Fukudome. The pitching staff will be fine once they drop Marquis and Put Hill back where he belongs.

 

You are weird.

 

Why? What's impressive about a guy coming to a new country and hitting over .300 with a .409 OBP and a 118 OPS+ in his first year in the big leagues while showcasing an absolute cannon arm in right field?

 

Unimpressive.

[treebird]

The Cubs are for real. However, they are a good team, not a great team (great meaning over 90 wins). To be great they will need to get better production out of CF. Also, I'm not at all impressed with Fukudome. The pitching staff will be fine once they drop Marquis and Put Hill back where he belongs.

 

You are weird.

 

 

i was going to say something about it, and then i saw the his slg is all the way down to 431. i wouldn't say that i'm "not at all impressed," but he really needs to start hitting for some power.