Re: Bill James Explains the "Curse"

[dougdescenzo]

Q: Why can’t the Chicago Cubs get into the World Series? Is it the small park? Low salaries? The curse of the billy goat? Does sabermetrics provide any insights?

 

A: Talking about the origins of it — the Cubs fell into a trench in history in the late 1930’s, when almost all baseball teams built farm systems, but the Cubs for several years refused to do so. This put them behind the curve, crippled them for the 1950’s, and really the organization did not fully overcome that until about 1980.

 

Since 1980 they have had several teams that could have wandered into a World Series, with better luck. They haven’t had any one overpowering team — like the 1984 Tigers, or the 1992 Blue Jays, or the 1998 Yankees — that was so good that it demanded a seat at the Last Banquet of Fall. And, unless you have a team that good, you’re at the mercy of the fates.

 

http://freakonomics.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/04/01/bill-james-answers-all-your-baseball-questions/#more-1967

[OleMissCub]

Aside from the minor leagues thing, that all seems pretty obvious.

 

My favorite Bill James moment comes from his Baseball Abstract book where he ranks the top 100 players at every position historically and writes several paragraphs about each of them. His entry for Cecil Fielder simply reads:

 

55 - Cecil Fielder

(1985-1998, 1470 G, 319 1008 .255)

A big fat guy who hit home runs for a few years.

[Wilson A2000]

The 2003 team was overpowering for a time in the playoffs. That was the best Cubs team I have seen.

[snoodmonger]

The 2003 team was overpowering for a time in the playoffs. That was the best Cubs team I have seen.

 

The '84 team should have been to the series. They might have gotten steamrolled by the Tigers, but they were the best team in the NL (by my 9-year-old recollection.)

[imb]

The 2003 team was overpowering for a time in the playoffs. That was the best Cubs team I have seen.

 

The '84 team should have been to the series. They might have gotten steamrolled by the Tigers, but they were the best team in the NL (by my 9-year-old recollection.)

 

tell us more about the olden days, grampa

[snoodmonger]

The 2003 team was overpowering for a time in the playoffs. That was the best Cubs team I have seen.

 

The '84 team should have been to the series. They might have gotten steamrolled by the Tigers, but they were the best team in the NL (by my 9-year-old recollection.)

 

tell us more about the olden days, grampa

 

 

I hate everything about you.

[imb]

The 2003 team was overpowering for a time in the playoffs. That was the best Cubs team I have seen.

 

The '84 team should have been to the series. They might have gotten steamrolled by the Tigers, but they were the best team in the NL (by my 9-year-old recollection.)

 

tell us more about the olden days, grampa

 

 

I hate everything about you.

 

was history class easier back then

[snoodmonger]

The 2003 team was overpowering for a time in the playoffs. That was the best Cubs team I have seen.

 

The '84 team should have been to the series. They might have gotten steamrolled by the Tigers, but they were the best team in the NL (by my 9-year-old recollection.)

 

tell us more about the olden days, grampa

 

 

I hate everything about you.

 

was history class easier back then

 

 

No such thing. We did have a "Peering Into the Future" core requirement.

[OleMissCub]

The 2003 team was overpowering for a time in the playoffs. That was the best Cubs team I have seen.

 

The '84 team should have been to the series. They might have gotten steamrolled by the Tigers, but they were the best team in the NL (by my 9-year-old recollection.)

 

tell us more about the olden days, grampa

 

 

I hate everything about you.

 

was history class easier back then

 

 

No such thing. We did have a "Peering Into the Future" core requirement.

 

I don't guess there was a sports section in that class. If I had known I was in for two and a half decades of futility, I don't think I'd still be following the Cobs.

[imb]

The 2003 team was overpowering for a time in the playoffs. That was the best Cubs team I have seen.

 

The '84 team should have been to the series. They might have gotten steamrolled by the Tigers, but they were the best team in the NL (by my 9-year-old recollection.)

 

tell us more about the olden days, grampa

 

 

I hate everything about you.

 

was history class easier back then

 

 

No such thing. We did have a "Peering Into the Future" core requirement.

 

I don't guess there was a sports section in that class. If I had known I was in for two and a half decades of futility, I don't think I'd still be following the Cobs.

 

You'll appreciate this. My mom called me the other day because she found some folder of mine from back when I was in the second or third grade. There were a lot of my old journal assignments from english or whatever in it.

 

The first one? If you could go back in time, where would you go?

 

My answer? "I would go see Cy Young pitch."

[OleMissCub]

You'll appreciate this. My mom called me the other day because she found some folder of mine from back when I was in the second or third grade. There were a lot of my old journal assignments from english or whatever in it.

 

The first one? If you could go back in time, where would you go?

 

My answer? "I would go see Cy Young pitch."

 

Very nice! I don't think I knew who Cy Young was back then. I didn't get into baseball history until college.

 

I think the Big Train is who I'd want to see pitch from that era and I'd want to see Babe Ruth hit.

[jaydee]

yah my grandpa actually told me that minor league thing when i was about 10...smart move by the cubbies to not build a farm system

[Outshined_One]

That 2004 team was one of the best assembled Cubs teams I've ever seen in my life. They had everything they needed to win 95 games, imo.

 

We all know how that one turned out.

[Soul]

That 2004 team was one of the best assembled Cubs teams I've ever seen in my life. They had everything they needed to win 95 games, imo.

 

We all know how that one turned out.

 

The '84 team should have gone. It never made any sense for them to lose 3 in a row to the Padres. Not then it didn't, and not now. And that club was the best team in the NL that year, no question about it.

 

'85 and '04 were very, very similar seasons from my perspective. Expected to be dominant, then just ending up nowhere. The only difference was, the '85 club had a heart-attack-inducing massive losing streak (14 games, IIRC?) that blew the season up like a nuke, and '04 we basically stubbed our toe all year.

[chuckywang]

Am I the only one who doesn't want to see the Cubs "buy" a World Series? I want them to do it like the Marlins ... develop their own players and have those players take them all the way.

[NCCubFan]

Am I the only one who doesn't want to see the Cubs "buy" a World Series?

I think you are. After 100 years I think most of us just want a championship the quickest way possible.

[SABR Gamer]

The 2003 team was overpowering for a time in the playoffs. That was the best Cubs team I have seen.

 

BP on the Cubs (the number is their NL ranking)

 

2. Chicago Cubs (94-68, 795 RS, 677 RA). The Cubs don’t have a leadoff hitter, so adding Brian Roberts would be worth a bit more than the models suggest. The switch-hitter with OBP would really help a lineup that lists to the right side. As good as the 2003 and 1998 teams were, this is the best Cubs team in a very long time. They’ll score, they’ll strike out a bunch of guys, and the defense is pretty good. The Cubs aren’t just NL Central good; the Cubs are MLB good.

[Outshined_One]

Am I the only one who doesn't want to see the Cubs "buy" a World Series? I want them to do it like the Marlins ... develop their own players and have those players take them all the way.

 

To be fair, some of the key players on those Marlins teams were shrewdly acquired through signings and trades. They might not have had a huge budget, but they picked up guys like Dontrelle Willis, Moises Alou, Derrek Lee, Gary Sheffield, and Kevin Brown in those ways. True, they developed guys like Edgar Renteria, Livan Hernandez, Josh Beckett, and Miguel Cabrera came up with them, but saying their 1997 and 2003 WS teams were built with "their own players" is a bit of a misnomer.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Am I the only one who doesn't want to see the Cubs "buy" a World Series? I want them to do it like the Marlins ... develop their own players and have those players take them all the way.

 

To be fair, some of the key players on those Marlins teams were shrewdly acquired through signings and trades. They might not have had a huge budget, but they picked up guys like Dontrelle Willis, Moises Alou, Derrek Lee, Gary Sheffield, and Kevin Brown in those ways. True, they developed guys like Edgar Renteria, Livan Hernandez, Josh Beckett, and Miguel Cabrera came up with them, but saying their 1997 and 2003 WS teams were built with "their own players" is a bit of a misnomer.

 

A quick look at that 1997 team shows that their top 4 hitters, top 2 bench bats, 5 of the top 6 starters, their closer, and main setup guy were the result of FA signings and trades. Essentially, Livan was the only homegrown player to have a truly positive impact. Renteria had an OPS+ of 80 that year.

[Bote McBoteface]

Am I the only one who doesn't want to see the Cubs "buy" a World Series? I want them to do it like the Marlins ... develop their own players and have those players take them all the way.

 

To be fair, some of the key players on those Marlins teams were shrewdly acquired through signings and trades. They might not have had a huge budget, but they picked up guys like Dontrelle Willis, Moises Alou, Derrek Lee, Gary Sheffield, and Kevin Brown in those ways. True, they developed guys like Edgar Renteria, Livan Hernandez, Josh Beckett, and Miguel Cabrera came up with them, but saying their 1997 and 2003 WS teams were built with "their own players" is a bit of a misnomer.

 

A quick look at that 1997 team shows that their top 4 hitters, top 2 bench bats, 5 of the top 6 starters, their closer, and main setup guy were the result of FA signings and trades. Essentially, Livan was the only homegrown player to have a truly positive impact. Renteria had an OPS+ of 80 that year.

 

 

but then he got lucky and got that one hit off of Nagy's glove :(

[bhogg]

The 84 team was awesome. They had it all --- hitting, pitching, defense, and YOUTH.

 

85 saw teh 13 game losing streak. At the time, the cubs were something like 35-16 or 35-19. Also, the 85 team saw the entire starting rotation see time on the DL. Frey was fired the next year. I think management was too impatient with that group, but oh well.

 

89 was a team that wasn't expected to even win half its games. However, they got career years out of some guys on the pitching staff and ended up having the best record in the league. They didn't get many breaks in the post season and the Giants made quick work of them.

 

If not for the douchebaggery of Larry Himes, 1993 could have been the year.

[CuseCubFan69]

yah my grandpa actually told me that minor league thing when i was about 10...smart move by the cubbies to not build a farm system

 

I think what failed the Cubs was Wrigley being so cheap. The farm team and other areas of the game he went on the cheap.

[Jon]

yah my grandpa actually told me that minor league thing when i was about 10...smart move by the cubbies to not build a farm system

 

I think what failed the Cubs was Wrigley being so cheap. The farm team and other areas of the game he went on the cheap.

And for the longest time both Wrigleys viewed the successful PCL Angels much more as separate from the Cubs system, which really hurt.

[CuseCubFan69]

yah my grandpa actually told me that minor league thing when i was about 10...smart move by the cubbies to not build a farm system

 

I think what failed the Cubs was Wrigley being so cheap. The farm team and other areas of the game he went on the cheap.

And for the longest time both Wrigleys viewed the successful PCL Angels much more as separate from the Cubs system, which really hurt.

 

It wasn't a curse unless you consider an owner who rubbed his pennies together as a curse. It wasn't bad luck, just very bad management.

[Bull]

The 84 team was awesome. They had it all --- hitting, pitching, defense, and YOUTH.

 

85 saw teh 13 game losing streak. At the time, the cubs were something like 35-16 or 35-19. Also, the 85 team saw the entire starting rotation see time on the DL. Frey was fired the next year. I think management was too impatient with that group, but oh well.

 

89 was a team that wasn't expected to even win half its games. However, they got career years out of some guys on the pitching staff and ended up having the best record in the league. They didn't get many breaks in the post season and the Giants made quick work of them.

 

If not for the douchebaggery of Larry Himes, 1993 could have been the year.

 

what year did the entire pitching staff get food poisoning?