Heard a Rumor: Cubs Interested in Crisp

[RammyFanny]

Crisp's best OBP was .345 in 05'; he put up a 117 OPS+ that season. Can anyone account for why he has regressed in this regard?

 

He's not really that good? Actually, I'd attribute it to him fracturing his hand in 2006

+1

I remember there being some sort of injury that I gave him a little leeway for, and that was it.

[DenverCubs]

because i don't think baseball prospectus lies and makes up random stats?

who said they were random?

 

we haven't a clue what they're factoring, how much weight they're giving it, what they're omitting, and still it's used as gospel of a player's true value. it's laughable.

 

i guess i'm more critical.

 

what statistic do you prefer that gives an estimation how much a player is worth? not just hitting, but value for their fielding, and baserunning too.

none exist yet. not even close.

Actually, one does. It's called WARP-(1,2,3)

What it does is considers all the aspects of a player's game and makes an educated evaluation with the most complete information we're presented with.

[sneakypower]

*sigh*

[RammyFanny]

If we were going to deal Murton+ for Marlon Byrd, I sure as hell would rather deal that for Crisp if I had to.

[JeffH]

If we were going to deal Murton+ for Marlon Byrd, I sure as hell would rather deal that for Crisp if I had to.

Amen.

[rocket]

because i don't think baseball prospectus lies and makes up random stats?

who said they were random?

 

we haven't a clue what they're factoring, how much weight they're giving it, what they're omitting, and still it's used as gospel of a player's true value. it's laughable.

 

i guess i'm more critical.

 

what statistic do you prefer that gives an estimation how much a player is worth? not just hitting, but value for their fielding, and baserunning too.

none exist yet. not even close.

 

you could consider all the aspects of a player's game and make an educated evaluation with all of the incomplete information you're presented with instead of lazily trusting another self-proclaimed expert to do your thinking for you.

 

it's more fun too.

 

based on coco's past success with the bat before a severe hand injury, his excellent defense, and good baserunning, i think he'd be a good fit for the cubs and worth trading for.

 

happy?

 

nice caveman avatar, by the way.

[SweetZombieJesus]

If we were going to deal Murton+ for Marlon Byrd, I sure as hell would rather deal that for Crisp if I had to.

 

That's like saying you would rather have a stab wound to the stomach that you kills you rather than a shot in the back of the head execution style. Either way you are going to die it's one's just a slower much more painful death.

[98navigator]

I think this actually makes a lot of sense. Crane said that the Cubs have 2 offers on the table to get them 2 big names whom arent pitchers. If the Cubs end up trading Gallagher and Pie for Roberts which would be ridiculous, then they could trade Murton, Wuertz, and someone like marquis/Dempster/marshall for Crisp and be set. I would rather keep marshall and i dont know what the red sox would do with another SP. They got Beckett, schilling, dice-k, wakefield, lester, and bucholtz.

Did Crane specifically say they weren't pitchers?

 

And this 2 deal thing has been around awhile now, I doubt Crisp would be one of the guys since he was on and off in the Santana discussions.

 

You can listen to the podcast yourself.

[Guest]

Actually, one does. It's called WARP-(1,2,3)

What it does is considers all the aspects of a player's game and makes an educated evaluation with the most complete information we're presented with.

I think the point CM was trying to make was that BP's methodology in figuring many of their stats is less than transparent. Without a good idea of exactly how they arrive at their numbers we have a limited ability to replicate their results or analyze their process. With that being the case, it may be wise to take their numbers with a small grain of salt even though they seem to be pretty smart fellows.

 

As far as a Crisp trade is concerned... well, it would concern me. Crisp's value (at least from an offensive perspective) has really taken a dive since he was traded to Boston. This is mostly due to a fairly dramatic power drain for a hitter in his mid-late 20s. In his two final years in Cleveland he averaged a HR every 38.5 PA. His rate in Boston has been a mere HR every 74.5 PA, with an alarmingly low rate of a HR every 98.5 PA this past year. I'm not sure why his power numbers took such a sudden and dramatic drop, and the fact that he was worse in his full season than his injured season makes me think it's not entirely due to the hand injury. I'd hesitate to view him as anything more than a defensive specialist until he's proven he can bring those power numbers back up.

[BigbadB]

Injuries. See Derrek Lee.

[DenverCubs]

If we were going to deal Murton+ for Marlon Byrd, I sure as hell would rather deal that for Crisp if I had to.

Here's the real question...Would you rather be rich, or stupid?

[Mephistopheles]

because i don't think baseball prospectus lies and makes up random stats?

who said they were random?

 

we haven't a clue what they're factoring, how much weight they're giving it, what they're omitting, and still it's used as gospel of a player's true value. it's laughable.

 

i guess i'm more critical.

 

what statistic do you prefer that gives an estimation how much a player is worth? not just hitting, but value for their fielding, and baserunning too.

none exist yet. not even close.

Actually, one does. It's called WARP-(1,2,3)

What it does is considers all the aspects of a player's game and makes an educated evaluation with the most complete information we're presented with.

 

I have an idea. Take a knife and cut out the portion of your brain that uses WARP.

[Mephistopheles]

because i don't think baseball prospectus lies and makes up random stats?

who said they were random?

 

we haven't a clue what they're factoring, how much weight they're giving it, what they're omitting, and still it's used as gospel of a player's true value. it's laughable.

 

i guess i'm more critical.

 

Sure we* do....I know how to calculate everything. Not to the T but close enough where we're going to be different by like one percent. I may come up with a .298 EqA, they might come up with a .301 EqA. No stat is accurate enough for that .003 to be worth arguing over.

 

* At least I.

[nilodnayr]

 

Crisp is significantly better defensively, and may be the best defensive CF in the game. His UZR is up there with Adam Everett. Plus his approach at the plate is much more conducive to him returning to his previous success offensively, unlike Patterson.

 

The previous year Patterson was tops in the AL in RZR and Crisp was dead last amoung qualifiers.

 

Either way I don't want either of them and I certainly wouldn't be giving up a 2 players to get him.

 

Sorry TT, but I'm going to have to disagree with you. As SZJ points out advanced defensive metrics have Crisp all over the place. Aggregate them and hes around average. Regressing to the mean would also accomplish this. He is absolutely not like Everett because Everett has consistantly done this year in, year out.

 

The amount of fluctuation in advanced defensive metrics is staggaring. Either there is a flaw in the metric or most players' actual defensive value fluctuates year over year due to randomness and sample size. IMO its both. There are a few guys out there that are truly a few sigmas from the means defensively in either direction, but Covelli ain't one of them.

[Mephistopheles]

coco crisp is a fine defensive centerfielder. the one outlier was 06. his 05 and 04 translated to CF put him above average (not elite) but above average.

[Halman]

is anyone really saying he is bad out there defensively?

 

My arguement was I'd rather sign corey than trade for Crisp. Trading for crisp at this point with lofton and Corey still out there is fairly dumb move.

[Wilmo]

It's funny because I'm looking at Crisp's career line of .280/.329/.409/.738 with an average of 12 HRs and 25 SB and that's give or take what I'd hope from Pie this season.

 

If it was guaranteed Pie could put up numbers like this, this year, I'd say forget any trade or acquiring a platoon and let the kid play everyday.

[Guest]

Injuries. See Derrek Lee.

This is certainly a plausible explanation, but I'm not sure Lee's situation is entirely comparable to Crisp's. If we're saying that Crisp can be expected to return to his former success after he gets over his injury it would be logical to assume that he'll perform better the farther he's removed from it. This is certainly the case for Lee, whose power numbers rebounded very nicely in the second half of 2007 after his slow start. The same can not be said for Crisp, unfortunately; his power numbers were actually worse after the break in '07, including a mere 1 HR in his final 271 PA. That could just be an aberration due to the small sample size, but it's enough to cause me concern.

[nilodnayr]

coco crisp is a fine defensive centerfielder. the one outlier was 06. his 05 and 04 translated to CF put him above average (not elite) but above average.

 

 

Heres a link to his UZRs

 

http://www.tangotiger.net/mgl/

 

UZR0307 shows it from 03-07

 

What is the translation like take 10 runs away to go from LF to CF?

 

I wasn't saying hes not fine, but hes no Everret.

[Mephistopheles]

coco crisp is a fine defensive centerfielder. the one outlier was 06. his 05 and 04 translated to CF put him above average (not elite) but above average.

 

 

Heres a link to his UZRs

 

http://www.tangotiger.net/mgl/

 

UZR0307 shows it from 03-07

 

What is the translation like take 10 runs away to go from LF to CF?

 

I wasn't saying hes not fine, but hes no Everret.

 

Lets see in left field those put him at +36 in LF. That translates to about +25 in CF.

[badnews]

I don't agree with giving him a free pass on his hand for so long. 188 games in CF from 2002-2005, I don't see good defensive numbers, I see below average ones. I see average in 2006. Then crazy good in 2007. I don't buy it. Jacque Jones outproduced Crisp offensively in '07, has around the same salary, and played crazy good center field defense, we had to eat some salary and get crap in return, and Crisp is supposed to fetch all of this in return for the Red Sox? I do not think so. I don't buy he's that good of a center fielder and that WARP3 is propped up by his great defensive numbers.

[OleMissCub]

It's funny because I'm looking at Crisp's career line of .280/.329/.409/.738 with an average of 12 HRs and 25 SB and that's give or take what I'd hope from Pie this season.

 

If it was guaranteed Pie could put up numbers like this, this year, I'd say forget any trade or acquiring a platoon and let the kid play everyday.

 

My Lilly.gif file! I'm glad you have that because I lost the original when my computer crashed.

[TheDude]

Injuries. See Derrek Lee.

Exactly. And Nomar. Wrist/hand injuries that are serious take more one year to recover from. Crisp is a quality CF. Not elite, but quality.

[Sterling30]

If we were going to deal Murton+ for Marlon Byrd, I sure as hell would rather deal that for Crisp if I had to.

Here's the real question...Would you rather be rich, or stupid?

I'll take stupid rich.

[nilodnayr]

coco crisp is a fine defensive centerfielder. the one outlier was 06. his 05 and 04 translated to CF put him above average (not elite) but above average.

 

 

Heres a link to his UZRs

 

http://www.tangotiger.net/mgl/

 

UZR0307 shows it from 03-07

 

What is the translation like take 10 runs away to go from LF to CF?

 

I wasn't saying hes not fine, but hes no Everret.

 

Lets see in left field those put him at +36 in LF. That translates to about +25 in CF.

 

Sorry, I was on my gf's stupid mac lastnight and I couldn't figure out how to unzip files (I'm guessing im the stupid one, not the mac), so heres the analysis.

 

This is assuming the translation from LF to CF is 10 runs over 150 games. I really pulled that off the top of my head, someone correct me if I'm wrong, but I think its pretty close.

 

According to MGL's UZRs, combining his time in LF (adjusting to CF) and his time in CF, here are his runs/150

 

2003: 10 runs in 93 games analyzed

2004: 28 runs in 117 games analyzed

2005: 11 runs in 143 games analyzed

2006: -13 runs in 100 games analyzed

partial 2007: 13 runs in 43 games analyzed

 

Eyeball aggregating and regressing and you get around +10 runs or so, which is good.

 

Everett is around +25 to +30 or so.

 

Again, Adam Everett he is not.