WSCR Rumor?

[USSoccer]

Cuse, are you basing this whole "can't handle failure" thing on Game 6?

[Andy]

Cuse, are you basing this whole "can't handle failure" thing on Game 6?

I think everyone who makes this argument does.

 

While we're on the subject, I don't know the numbers of pitchers in innings they have to record 4 or more outs (as Prior was charged with doing in that game), but I can be pretty sure they're significantly worse than ones in which they only have to get 3.

[Northsider]

I think I see what Cuse is trying to do - Cuse, perhaps you made the unstated assumption that you'd like to compare the LD% after 4 runs to the LD% before that point in the game?

[Northsider]

I'd like to point out that I think Cuse has a good general idea, but I don't think that LD% is the right stat or set thereof to look at. LD% has the unfortunate problem of being a result of both the hitting and the pitching - I'd argue that while the stats, then, would balance out over time for that pitcher, the data would perhaps be less likely to be accurate.

 

The other thing that worries me about using LD% would be that a pitcher often gets lifted if they're getting lit up; how much is an ample amount of time for a pitcher to recover from a rally? A pitcher isn't often told to pitch until they hit their pitch count after giving up a largish number of runs in a single inning, while they probably will finish their part of the game if it's over the course of several innings. Especially if the other pitcher is doing about equally.

 

We have access to more pitcher's stats than we used to. We have pitch speed, we have pitch 'break', we can find out where the ball hit (or missed) the strike zone. We can probably get a breakdown of what pitches were being thrown. For the most part, this is all under the control of the pitcher (I say 'for the most part' because one might debate how much a catcher controls where the pitch is supposed to be thrown, and how much they try to neutralize bad pitches or even if they do). So, perhaps it might be better to look at that data and try and figure out if a pitcher has a 'mental weakness point', be it first in the game, runs in an inning, run differential, &c. where those factors change significantly. You might even look for physical weakness, where a pitcher gets tired - it seems to me, from watching games, that late in the game Zambrano will actually start to throw a little harder, and his pitches will flatten out some, and he gets hit more; however, that's only what I've seen. I'd like to see the statistics on that, and see if he actually does tend to do this after roughly so many pitches, personally.

 

Sorry if this post was a bit rambling, and it probably needs to be split and sent to baseball discussions if anyone wants to follow up on this?

[imb]

Hey Cuse, can you even tell a high LD% from a bad one?

 

Some poor sap might spend hours trying to figure it out, only to have you be unable to decipher the data.

[minnesotacubsfan]

 

You've created a hypothesis which has it's basis in a person's psychological reaction to failure. However, there isn't going to be a metric to show you how he "handles failure". That's a perception. What numbers will show you is that if a guy is having a bad game, he's going to have crappy numbers. Which doesn't prove that he can't "handle failure". It only proves that he experiences failure.

 

 

isnt this the arguement against a "choke artist"?

 

 

and in Cuse's defense, he has prefaced his statements as "opinions"

 

Mods, we REALLY need to weeding these threads. they allll are getting seriously off-topic. they are becoming the war of stat-men vs cuse and his crew.

 

seriously, comon.

[imb]

 

You've created a hypothesis which has it's basis in a person's psychological reaction to failure. However, there isn't going to be a metric to show you how he "handles failure". That's a perception. What numbers will show you is that if a guy is having a bad game, he's going to have crappy numbers. Which doesn't prove that he can't "handle failure". It only proves that he experiences failure.

 

 

isnt this the arguement against a "choke artist"?

 

 

and in Cuse's defense, he has prefaced his statements as "opinions"

 

Mods, we REALLY need to weeding these threads. they allll are getting seriously off-topic. they are becoming the war of stat-men vs cuse and his crew.

 

seriously, comon.

 

This is so annoying. If you don't want to get involved in a debate, stay out of it or talk about something else.

 

Backseat modding is about the lamest thing you can do.

[CuseCubFan69]

Hey Cuse, can you even tell a high LD% from a bad one?

 

Some poor sap might spend hours trying to figure it out, only to have you be unable to decipher the data.

 

I have you to help me do it.

[SeldomSeen]

 

You've created a hypothesis which has it's basis in a person's psychological reaction to failure. However, there isn't going to be a metric to show you how he "handles failure". That's a perception. What numbers will show you is that if a guy is having a bad game, he's going to have crappy numbers. Which doesn't prove that he can't "handle failure". It only proves that he experiences failure.

 

 

isnt this the arguement against a "choke artist"?

 

 

and in Cuse's defense, he has prefaced his statements as "opinions"

 

Mods, we REALLY need to weeding these threads. they allll are getting seriously off-topic. they are becoming the war of stat-men vs cuse and his crew.

 

seriously, comon.

 

This is so annoying. If you don't want to get involved in a debate, stay out of it or talk about something else.

 

Backseat modding is about the lamest thing you can do.

 

This, however, is extremely insightful:

 

Hey Cuse, can you even tell a high LD% from a bad one?

 

Some poor sap might spend hours trying to figure it out, only to have you be unable to decipher the data.

[imb]

 

You've created a hypothesis which has it's basis in a person's psychological reaction to failure. However, there isn't going to be a metric to show you how he "handles failure". That's a perception. What numbers will show you is that if a guy is having a bad game, he's going to have crappy numbers. Which doesn't prove that he can't "handle failure". It only proves that he experiences failure.

 

 

isnt this the arguement against a "choke artist"?

 

 

and in Cuse's defense, he has prefaced his statements as "opinions"

 

Mods, we REALLY need to weeding these threads. they allll are getting seriously off-topic. they are becoming the war of stat-men vs cuse and his crew.

 

seriously, comon.

 

This is so annoying. If you don't want to get involved in a debate, stay out of it or talk about something else.

 

Backseat modding is about the lamest thing you can do.

 

This, however, is extremely insightful:

 

Hey Cuse, can you even tell a high LD% from a bad one?

 

Some poor sap might spend hours trying to figure it out, only to have you be unable to decipher the data.

 

Look above you, he doesn't know what's a high LD% and what's a low one. Someone could dig up all that data, post it, and he'd say "is that good or bad?"

 

He has a terrible argument and he knows it. When your whole argument boils down to "give me some numbers I don't understand and then tell me what they mean", you're fighting a losing battle.

[nilodnayr]

Cuse are you trying to quantify crisis prevention? If so, I think you'll find that there is very little evidence to prove it exists. Its mainly just random variation. For example, look at LOB%. It fluctuates year to year and regressed to the norm.

[abuck1220]

Cuse are you trying to quantify crisis prevention? If so, I think you'll find that there is very little evidence to prove it exists. Its mainly just random variation. For example, look at LOB%. It fluctuates year to year and regressed to the norm.

 

great, now someone has to explain to him what all that means.

 

refuting his baseless argument has proven to be a LOT of work.

[minnesotacubsfan]

 

Backseat modding is about the lamest thing you can do.

 

your right IMB, it is lame. I should mold my personallity after the greatest poster of all time, you, because you never have had a post that was anything but respectful and enlightened, and you never get old to other posters. IMB for sainthood!

 

 

But to get back to my question, and it is a serious question, isnt Soccer's post an arguement against the idea of a choke artist?

[CuseCubFan69]

 

You've created a hypothesis which has it's basis in a person's psychological reaction to failure. However, there isn't going to be a metric to show you how he "handles failure". That's a perception. What numbers will show you is that if a guy is having a bad game, he's going to have crappy numbers. Which doesn't prove that he can't "handle failure". It only proves that he experiences failure.

 

 

isnt this the arguement against a "choke artist"?

 

 

and in Cuse's defense, he has prefaced his statements as "opinions"

 

Mods, we REALLY need to weeding these threads. they allll are getting seriously off-topic. they are becoming the war of stat-men vs cuse and his crew.

 

seriously, comon.

 

This is so annoying. If you don't want to get involved in a debate, stay out of it or talk about something else.

 

Backseat modding is about the lamest thing you can do.

 

This, however, is extremely insightful:

 

Hey Cuse, can you even tell a high LD% from a bad one?

 

Some poor sap might spend hours trying to figure it out, only to have you be unable to decipher the data.

 

Look above you, he doesn't know what's a high LD% and what's a low one. Someone could dig up all that data, post it, and he'd say "is that good or bad?"

 

He has a terrible argument and he knows it. When your whole argument boils down to "give me some numbers I don't understand and then tell me what they mean", you're fighting a losing battle.

 

When did I say I wouldn't understand the numbers? Oh yeah, you said that not me, to make an incorrect point.

[abuck1220]

 

When did I say I wouldn't understand the numbers? Oh yeah, you said that not me, to make an incorrect point.

 

Hey Cuse, can you even tell a high LD% from a bad one?

 

Some poor sap might spend hours trying to figure it out, only to have you be unable to decipher the data.

 

I have you to help me do it.

[CuseCubFan69]

 

When did I say I wouldn't understand the numbers? Oh yeah, you said that not me, to make an incorrect point.

 

Hey Cuse, can you even tell a high LD% from a bad one?

 

Some poor sap might spend hours trying to figure it out, only to have you be unable to decipher the data.

 

I have you to help me do it.

 

And I'm not ashamed to ask for help. Is that wrong?

[abuck1220]

 

When did I say I wouldn't understand the numbers? Oh yeah, you said that not me, to make an incorrect point.

 

Hey Cuse, can you even tell a high LD% from a bad one?

 

Some poor sap might spend hours trying to figure it out, only to have you be unable to decipher the data.

 

I have you to help me do it.

 

And I'm not ashamed to ask for help. Is that wrong?

 

do you have multiple personalities or something?

 

you just said...

 

When did I say I wouldn't understand the numbers?

 

and i simply pointed to where you said...

 

I have you to help me do it

 

...which appears to be an instance when you said you "wouldn't understand the numbers."

[CuseCubFan69]

 

When did I say I wouldn't understand the numbers? Oh yeah, you said that not me, to make an incorrect point.

 

Hey Cuse, can you even tell a high LD% from a bad one?

 

Some poor sap might spend hours trying to figure it out, only to have you be unable to decipher the data.

 

I have you to help me do it.

 

And I'm not ashamed to ask for help. Is that wrong?

 

do you have multiple personalities or something?

 

you just said...

 

When did I say I wouldn't understand the numbers?

 

and i simply pointed to where you said...

 

I have you to help me do it

 

...which appears to be an instance when you said you "wouldn't understand the numbers."

 

Great points abuck.

[David]

I can't believe this is still going on.

 

The best part is that I have yet to see CCF offer one piece of evidence or support for his claim/opinion. I could be wrong, though.

[CuseCubFan69]

I can't believe this is still going on.

 

The best part is that I have yet to see CCF offer one piece of evidence or support for his claim/opinion. I could be wrong, though.

 

You guys are right and I'm wrong. What more is there to say?

[David]

I can't believe this is still going on.

 

The best part is that I have yet to see CCF offer one piece of evidence or support for his claim/opinion. I could be wrong, though.

 

You guys are right and I'm wrong. What more is there to say?

 

 

I want you, just once, to support your claim in some way other than some blanket statement about it being your opinion. Is that a lot to ask?

[CubColtPacer]

I can't believe this is still going on.

 

The best part is that I have yet to see CCF offer one piece of evidence or support for his claim/opinion. I could be wrong, though.

 

You guys are right and I'm wrong. What more is there to say?

 

 

I want you, just once, to support your claim in some way other than some blanket statement about it being your opinion. Is that a lot to ask?

 

How can he support it in the format of this board though? I'm sure that if he had access to the game tape of Prior's starts during that time period and could post it here, Cuse could show you what differences he saw at the time between Prior's body language/throwing motion after he had been hit a few times. Unfortunately, that isn't really available, so all he can give you is his opinion from his experience.

 

BTW, I happen to disagree with Cuse on the overall point, but his experience gives his opinion added respect IMO. His opinion is not such a completely unreasonable thing to be dismissed out of hand just because he doesn't have the access to support it here. It's certainly possible that Prior did, and it's certainly possible that he did not. Unfortunately, the access to game tapes that we have means that it won't likely be proven either way anytime soon.

[C.C.]

I can't believe this is still going on.

 

The best part is that I have yet to see CCF offer one piece of evidence or support for his claim/opinion. I could be wrong, though.

 

You guys are right and I'm wrong. What more is there to say?

 

 

I want you, just once, to support your claim in some way other than some blanket statement about it being your opinion. Is that a lot to ask?

 

Evidently.

[TheDude]

Cuse, are you basing this whole "can't handle failure" thing on Game 6?

 

In this sort of random, immeasurable argument, all you can do is cite examples of the opposite. Throwing numbers out doesn't matter when discussing casual observation alone. How about the game where he gave up 3 solo HRs in the first, then didn't give up a hit until he came out, I think in the 6th.

 

In fact, from my recollections, Prior was always shaky in the first, and then sometimes untouchable after. You'd think someone mentally weak wouldn't handle consistent bad starts or shaky starts. A person like that would give up before righting.

[BigbadB]

I can't believe this is still going on.

 

The best part is that I have yet to see CCF offer one piece of evidence or support for his claim/opinion. I could be wrong, though.

 

You guys are right and I'm wrong. What more is there to say?

 

 

I want you, just once, to support your claim in some way other than some blanket statement about it being your opinion. Is that a lot to ask?

 

Wait a minute. Opinions must be supported by facts or stats now? Wow, I'm totally out of the loop.