MacPhail: Deal is dead (p. 297), stop posting, go outside

[forbez18]

Solves our need for top of lineup help and a fall back plan if Pie doesn't cut it.

 

Pie would really have to suck for Payton to be a viable fall back plan. PECOTA projects an OPS for .697 for Payton.

 

I just have a really bad feeling Pie's not going to hit.

I think it is important to have realistic expectations of how he'll preform. I think it is realistic to expect a league average CF production from Pie with well above league average fielding. To me the problem is not putting Pie in CF it is that the Cubs don't have a strong enough team to let a talented young CF learn to be a major league player. They need Pie to produce.

 

IF we had a legit SS, we'd be able to handle it pretty well, since we're pretty strong in the other 6 spots in the lineup. If we do get Roberts, probably the best case scenario would be for Theriot to get hurt or suck REALLY bad so that they're stuck having no choice but to give DeRosa a good amount of time at SS. I'm not saying I'd hope for Theriot to start out poorly or get hurt. I'm just saying, realistically, it's probably the best thing that could happen.

 

Why wouldn't the best thing for the Cubs to have Theriot play like he did for that one month, for 3/4 of the season (no one will play like that all season). Then slot him in at the #2 spot and he would be fine. I also find it hard to believe it that the Cubs are not good enough to allow a young CF'er to develop. If the Cubs aren't good enough then who is, maybe the Tigers and Boston. Lee, Ramierez, Soriano are all above average. Fukudome should be above average. Second is average, or will be above average. Soto should be at least an avg. hitting catcher. So that leaves short most likely below avg. at a position that history shows as not impact bat position. So if they can't help bring up a young player, then who can?

[Soul]

Solves our need for top of lineup help and a fall back plan if Pie doesn't cut it.

 

Pie would really have to suck for Payton to be a viable fall back plan. PECOTA projects an OPS for .697 for Payton.

 

I just have a really bad feeling Pie's not going to hit.

I think it is important to have realistic expectations of how he'll preform. I think it is realistic to expect a league average CF production from Pie with well above league average fielding. To me the problem is not putting Pie in CF it is that the Cubs don't have a strong enough team to let a talented young CF learn to be a major league player. They need Pie to produce.

 

What is league average offense for a CF? My fear is that he'll be terrible, like .220/.283 kind of terrible. I know, I need to have more faith :cool:

 

.272/.337/.420. If Pie does that, the Cubs will have an above average offense next year, and possibly a top 5 offense. 7 of their 8 positions will be average or better, with a few of them having the potential to be significantly above.

 

If Pie does that I'd be overjoyed.

[CuseCubFan69]

Solves our need for top of lineup help and a fall back plan if Pie doesn't cut it.

 

Pie would really have to suck for Payton to be a viable fall back plan. PECOTA projects an OPS for .697 for Payton.

 

I just have a really bad feeling Pie's not going to hit.

I think it is important to have realistic expectations of how he'll preform. I think it is realistic to expect a league average CF production from Pie with well above league average fielding. To me the problem is not putting Pie in CF it is that the Cubs don't have a strong enough team to let a talented young CF learn to be a major league player. They need Pie to produce.

 

What is league average offense for a CF? My fear is that he'll be terrible, like .220/.283 kind of terrible. I know, I need to have more faith :cool:

 

.272/.337/.420. If Pie does that, the Cubs will have an above average offense next year, and possibly a top 5 offense. 7 of their 8 positions will be average or better, with a few of them having the potential to be significantly above.

 

If Pie does that I'd be overjoyed.

 

Heck, I'll buy CCP a 6 pack of Colt 45's if he does!

[The Voice of Reason]

And that's what he thinks the Orioles want, not what they will get. If they are set on trading Roberts, I don't see how we're not in the drivers seat. Bruce has already said Colvin likely doesn't go.

 

I am going to go out out a real long limb here and say Bruce Miles and Buster Olney are more credible than Peace21, Big Bird, Belkast and all the other "Insiders" at OH combined.

[David]

Solves our need for top of lineup help and a fall back plan if Pie doesn't cut it.

 

Pie would really have to suck for Payton to be a viable fall back plan. PECOTA projects an OPS for .697 for Payton.

 

I just have a really bad feeling Pie's not going to hit.

I think it is important to have realistic expectations of how he'll preform. I think it is realistic to expect a league average CF production from Pie with well above league average fielding. To me the problem is not putting Pie in CF it is that the Cubs don't have a strong enough team to let a talented young CF learn to be a major league player. They need Pie to produce.

 

IF we had a legit SS, we'd be able to handle it pretty well, since we're pretty strong in the other 6 spots in the lineup. If we do get Roberts, probably the best case scenario would be for Theriot to get hurt or suck REALLY bad so that they're stuck having no choice but to give DeRosa a good amount of time at SS. I'm not saying I'd hope for Theriot to start out poorly or get hurt. I'm just saying, realistically, it's probably the best thing that could happen.

 

Why wouldn't the best thing for the Cubs to have Theriot play like he did for that one month, for 3/4 of the season (no one will play like that all season). Then slot him in at the #2 spot and he would be fine. I also find it hard to believe it that the Cubs are not good enough to allow a young CF'er to develop. If the Cubs aren't good enough then who is, maybe the Tigers and Boston. Lee, Ramierez, Soriano are all above average. Fukudome should be above average. Second is average, or will be above average. Soto should be at least an avg. hitting catcher. So that leaves short most likely below avg. at a position that history shows as not impact bat position. So if they can't help bring up a young player, then who can?

 

I said realistically.

[Guest]

So you're saying it's okay to trade our top pitching prospect, our 2nd best position player prospect, an outfielder in Murton who I think could only be a step away from becoming a Conor Jackson type hitter, and a shortstop who's fairly high risk/high reward, for a pure pricey salary dump and 2 years of Brian Roberts? Are we trading more than the Red Sox did for Josh Beckett yet? Yeesh.

 

Nope. Not even close. None of the players the Cubs are considering moving are near the prospect level that Ramirez was at the time, and certainly none will become what he has become. There are no sure-fire above-average everyday players in the rumored packages going to the O's. Murton has the best shot at it, but his lack of power at a power position hurts his chances in all but an Orioles-type franchise rebuilding. Gallagher is still prospect level and you never how pitching prospects work out.

 

You don't move Gallagher for unknown return, but Roberts return value is known, predictable, and needed, so the gamble surrounding the deal is almost entirely in the Orioles corner. They could end up with nothing 'real' in value. They could end up with a quality regular rotation starter and a serviceable everyday player on the cheap for a few years.

 

The inclusion of Payton in the deal doesn't make sense, but otherwise the reaction of Gallagher + Murton + Cedeno for Roberts is way overblown. Hendry would not be getting fleeced as advertised - he would be doing something people also bitch about him never doing, selling high. But that's the way people are around here; there is no concept of sell high on this board because the Cubs prospects of value are treated as gods.

 

Are you saying Hanley was a sure-fire above average everyday player at the time of the Beckett trade? I'd vehemently disagree with that sentiment.

 

Otherwise, I agree that this package doesn't come close to the Beckett trade (although I still don't like many of the rumored trade proposals).

[Post Count Padder]

Any real updates yet?

[Bear Cub]

ESPN 1000 says that Bruce Levine is reporting that the Cubs/Orioles talks concerning Roberts will be heating up this week.

[Bear Cub]

No names mentioned in the report.

[RynoRules]

I trust our Bruce over their Bruce. Their Bruce is the Drama Queen of Baseball Insiders.

[Outshined_One]

ESPN 1000 says that Bruce Levine is reporting that the Cubs/Orioles talks concerning Roberts will be heating up this week.

 

So, they'll be going from tepid to lukewarm?

[Sammy Sofa]

I trust our Bruce over their Bruce. Their Bruce is the Drama Queen of Baseball Insiders.

 

"Their Bruce?" Who does Levine belong to?

[UMFan83]

I trust our Bruce over their Bruce. Their Bruce is the Drama Queen of Baseball Insiders.

 

"Their Bruce?" Who does Levine belong to?

 

The Onion.

[Post Count Padder]

ESPN 1000 says that Bruce Levine is reporting that the Cubs/Orioles talks concerning Roberts will be heating up this week.

 

So, they'll be going from tepid to lukewarm?

Exactly

[UMFan83]

Jon Heyman from SI.com weighs in:

 

There is now a feeling in Orioles-land that Angelos may be balking at the negotiated haul for Roberts, which according to sources, is a very fair three-player package of young pitcher Sean Gallagher, outfielder Matt Murton and infielder Ronny Cedeno. There is also a sense that Angelos has an unreasonable attachment to Roberts, who may well remind the owner of himself: a little guy who's scrapped his way to the top of his profession (no, not baseball; Angelos is at the top of the legal profession, at least in terms of dollars earned).

 

Angelos has killed trades involving Roberts before. And apparently even Roberts' inclusion in the Mitchell Report and admission as a steroid user hasn't dulled Angelos' affection for him.

[Jon]

Jon Heyman from SI.com weighs in:

 

There is now a feeling in Orioles-land that Angelos may be balking at the negotiated haul for Roberts, which according to sources, is a very fair three-player package of young pitcher Sean Gallagher, outfielder Matt Murton and infielder Ronny Cedeno. There is also a sense that Angelos has an unreasonable attachment to Roberts, who may well remind the owner of himself: a little guy who's scrapped his way to the top of his profession (no, not baseball; Angelos is at the top of the legal profession, at least in terms of dollars earned).

 

Angelos has killed trades involving Roberts before. And apparently even Roberts' inclusion in the Mitchell Report and admission as a steroid user hasn't dulled Angelos' affection for him.

Can I get the definition of "scrappy lawyer" from one of the lawyers or law students on the board? Are their wingtips covered in pinetar?

[Athletics36]

Jon Heyman from SI.com weighs in:

 

There is now a feeling in Orioles-land that Angelos may be balking at the negotiated haul for Roberts, which according to sources, is a very fair three-player package of young pitcher Sean Gallagher, outfielder Matt Murton and infielder Ronny Cedeno. There is also a sense that Angelos has an unreasonable attachment to Roberts, who may well remind the owner of himself: a little guy who's scrapped his way to the top of his profession (no, not baseball; Angelos is at the top of the legal profession, at least in terms of dollars earned).

 

Angelos has killed trades involving Roberts before. And apparently even Roberts' inclusion in the Mitchell Report and admission as a steroid user hasn't dulled Angelos' affection for him.

 

So basically there is no news to report...... ;)

[UMFan83]

Jon Heyman from SI.com weighs in:

 

There is now a feeling in Orioles-land that Angelos may be balking at the negotiated haul for Roberts, which according to sources, is a very fair three-player package of young pitcher Sean Gallagher, outfielder Matt Murton and infielder Ronny Cedeno. There is also a sense that Angelos has an unreasonable attachment to Roberts, who may well remind the owner of himself: a little guy who's scrapped his way to the top of his profession (no, not baseball; Angelos is at the top of the legal profession, at least in terms of dollars earned).

 

Angelos has killed trades involving Roberts before. And apparently even Roberts' inclusion in the Mitchell Report and admission as a steroid user hasn't dulled Angelos' affection for him.

 

So basically there is no news to report...... ;)

 

I'm trying here guys, I really am. This thread isn't going to get to 200 pages by itself.

[RedFlash]

Jon Heyman from SI.com weighs in:

 

There is now a feeling in Orioles-land that Angelos may be balking at the negotiated haul for Roberts, which according to sources, is a very fair three-player package of young pitcher Sean Gallagher, outfielder Matt Murton and infielder Ronny Cedeno. There is also a sense that Angelos has an unreasonable attachment to Roberts, who may well remind the owner of himself: a little guy who's scrapped his way to the top of his profession (no, not baseball; Angelos is at the top of the legal profession, at least in terms of dollars earned).

 

Angelos has killed trades involving Roberts before. And apparently even Roberts' inclusion in the Mitchell Report and admission as a steroid user hasn't dulled Angelos' affection for him.

 

If Brian Roberts really wants to move on, he needs to have "The talk" with Angelos, and needs to tell Angelos is time to move on. Roberts knows that if he stays, he's unlikely to be any good, when the O's start their turnaround (perhaps by 2010-2011), and he doesn't want to waste his "prime yrs" playing for a team, likely to finish behind the Rays.

 

----------

 

Fred McGriff or Brian Roberts....which situation annoys you more, people?

[pitchcs]

Gallagher AND Murton AND Cedeno sounds like a lot.

 

I am all for trading for Roberts if the package is 2 of the above or a lesser 3. All three of those guys are essentially major league ready and, IMO, would take away from the depth of this years ballclub.

[Post Count Padder]

Jon Heyman from SI.com weighs in:

 

There is now a feeling in Orioles-land that Angelos may be balking at the negotiated haul for Roberts, which according to sources, is a very fair three-player package of young pitcher Sean Gallagher, outfielder Matt Murton and infielder Ronny Cedeno. There is also a sense that Angelos has an unreasonable attachment to Roberts, who may well remind the owner of himself: a little guy who's scrapped his way to the top of his profession (no, not baseball; Angelos is at the top of the legal profession, at least in terms of dollars earned).

 

Angelos has killed trades involving Roberts before. And apparently even Roberts' inclusion in the Mitchell Report and admission as a steroid user hasn't dulled Angelos' affection for him.

Man, talk about unhealthy obsessions.

[Derwood]

with all the talk of the O's 40-man roster issues, who would fill the voids left on the Cubs roster if we do a 3 or 4-for-1 trade for Roberts?

[DeuceBaseman]

Gallagher AND Murton AND Cedeno sounds like a lot.

 

I am all for trading for Roberts if the package is 2 of the above or a lesser 3. All three of those guys are essentially major league ready and, IMO, would take away from the depth of this years ballclub.

 

That is not a lot. That deal will not get it done. I would love to get Roberts for that deal! Too bad we're going to have to add Veal or Colvin to that deal to make it happen. Either way i'd do it!

[Derwood]

they can have Murton. i'd be pretty comfortable thinking he won't do much in Baltimore either

[pitchcs]

Gallagher AND Murton AND Cedeno sounds like a lot.

 

I am all for trading for Roberts if the package is 2 of the above or a lesser 3. All three of those guys are essentially major league ready and, IMO, would take away from the depth of this years ballclub.

 

That is not a lot. That deal will not get it done. I would love to get Roberts for that deal! Too bad we're going to have to add Veal or Colvin to that deal to make it happen. Either way i'd do it!

 

A future #3, our 4th OF and backup MI/possible starting SS is not a lot? Hmm...sure.