College Football - Week of 11/17

[Mephistopheles]

You've probably watched KU play what-once, twice this year? You have no idea how good they are or aren't. People who know a lot more about evaluating talent and teams admit they're a good football team with a legit chance to run the table. So it's laughable to say you know for certain they won't win out. Even if they're not as good as OU or Mizzou, they can still win those games.

 

And I hope they do just to piss off whiners who complain that it's not fair their team--which lost three straight games--isn't getting the respect it's due. ]

 

Three times. And how many times have you watched Florida? Probably three times...and who was Florida playing in those three games? Probably LSU, Georgia and Kentucky.

[Mephistopheles]

Using Saragan it's possible to breakdown a matchup between any two teams into probabilities of one team beating the other.

 

Running a regression on a for this typical distribution function:

f(2.64 + H - A)

f(x) = 1/(1+exp(-ax)

 

The probability that Florida would have run the table up to this point is a whopping 8.46%. The probability of Florida going 9-1 to this point is 35.4%. The probability of Florida going 8-2 is 31.67%. The probability of Florida going 7-3 or worse is 24.44%.

 

So, assuming Florida is the number six team in the country, they have a 1 in 4 chance of losing 3 games up to this point. I can't even begin to describe the ramifications of this.

 

Im going to sit here and spell out this. If you assume Florida is the number 6 team in the country and LSU is the number 2 team in the country, in a game at LSU Florida's will win about 39% of the time. If that same caliber Florida team plays Kansas' schedule, they're going to go 10-0 about 40% of the time.

 

The ramifications of this should be quite clear. No one should ever use the OMG LOSS argument again. It's too erroneous.

 

Note: I have all the data in a spreadsheet. if you want to know the probability of team x doing whatever in their schedule thus far, just ask

[Mephistopheles]

For kicks and giggles, if the Illini had UF's schedule:

 

Team	H/A	Opponent	A_P	H_P			P(10-0)	P(9-1)	P(8-2)	P(7-3) or less
Illinois	H	Western Kentucky	58.26	80.60	94.7%	1	0.15%	5.5%	7.98%	86.39%
Illinois	H	Troy 	71.53	80.60	79.4%	1				
Illinois	H	Tennesse	80.17	80.60	58.7%	1		Most Likely		
Illinois	A	Ole Miss	80.60	65.88	80.1%	1		W	L	
Illinois	H	Auburn	81.57	80.60	54.8%	1		6	4	
Illinois	A	LSU	80.60	93.36	14.5%	0				
Illinois	A	Kentucky	80.60	82.36	37.6%	0				
Illinois	N	Georgia	83.25	80.60	42.4%	0				
Illinois	H	Vanderbilt	73.65	80.60	75.1%	1				
Illinois	A	South Carolina	80.60	79.64	45.2%	0				

[Mephistopheles]

For kicks and giggles, if the Illini had UF's schedule:

 

Team	H/A	Opponent	A_P	H_P			P(10-0)	P(9-1)	P(8-2)	P(7-3) or less
Illinois	H	Western Kentucky	58.26	80.60	94.7%	1	0.15%	5.5%	7.98%	86.39%
Illinois	H	Troy 	71.53	80.60	79.4%	1				
Illinois	H	Tennesse	80.17	80.60	58.7%	1		Most Likely		
Illinois	A	Ole Miss	80.60	65.88	80.1%	1		W	L	
Illinois	H	Auburn	81.57	80.60	54.8%	1		6	4	
Illinois	A	LSU	80.60	93.36	14.5%	0				
Illinois	A	Kentucky	80.60	82.36	37.6%	0				
Illinois	N	Georgia	83.25	80.60	42.4%	0				
Illinois	H	Vanderbilt	73.65	80.60	75.1%	1				
Illinois	A	South Carolina	80.60	79.64	45.2%	0				

 

thats the number 20 team in the country whose most likely outcome playing ufs schedule is 6-4

[TruffleShuffle]

which assumes that sagarin's ratings are perfect, and that's definitely an airtight assumption

[Mephistopheles]

which assumes that sagarin's ratings are perfect, and that's definitely an airtight assumption

 

not really. the computers have the gators top ten iirc

[fiver]

that is a tough non-con. why can't Penn State schedule that way? there are times i wish PSU was independent again. back when i first started watching, they'd have schedules including Miami (FL), Alabama, Syracuse, Pitt, Rutgers, Notre Dame, Texas, West Virginia, etc. The AD here is lame

 

Tennessee has had a long standing policy to always play at least one tough non-conference game a year. In the recent past we've played UCLA, Cal, Notre Dame and Miami.

 

We go to UCLA next year and then get them in Neyland in 09. We also have Oklahoma, NC State, Oregon and were talking to Virginia Tech for future years.

 

It's nice to see the Vols take on legitimately good teams from other conferences, yet still have some breathers in between tough SEC opponents.

 

- As Meph has mentioned, Florida plays Miami, Hawaii, and at Florida State in 2008.

- Auburn picks up a home and away with West Viriginia in 2008 and 2009. (Auburn played a home and away with USC just a couple, few years ago)

- Tennessee plays home and away with UCLA in 2008 and 2009; they'll also play NC State

- Georgia plays Georgia Tech every season

- South Carolina plays Clemson.

- LSU played Virginia Tech this year.

- Alabama played Florida State this year "at a neutral site" in Jacksonville.

 

Some have suggested that all of the SEC's out of conference games are at home, but the SEC does play on the road against some formidable opponents.

 

(Cuse is going to let me have it if West Virginia beats Auburn next year )

Edited November 13, 2007 by fiver

[CubColtPacer]

which assumes that sagarin's ratings are perfect, and that's definitely an airtight assumption

 

not really. the computers have the gators top ten iirc

 

Computer rankings for Florida:

 

15th, 11th, 9th, 10th, 11th, 13th.

 

So most have Florida just outside the top 10, although slightly higher than their 14th ranking in the human polls.

[Keener98]

For kicks and giggles, if the Illini had UF's schedule:

 

Team	H/A	Opponent	A_P	H_P			P(10-0)	P(9-1)	P(8-2)	P(7-3) or less
Illinois	H	Western Kentucky	58.26	80.60	94.7%	1	0.15%	5.5%	7.98%	86.39%
Illinois	H	Troy 	71.53	80.60	79.4%	1				
Illinois	H	Tennesse	80.17	80.60	58.7%	1		Most Likely		
Illinois	A	Ole Miss	80.60	65.88	80.1%	1		W	L	
Illinois	H	Auburn	81.57	80.60	54.8%	1		6	4	
Illinois	A	LSU	80.60	93.36	14.5%	0				
Illinois	A	Kentucky	80.60	82.36	37.6%	0				
Illinois	N	Georgia	83.25	80.60	42.4%	0				
Illinois	H	Vanderbilt	73.65	80.60	75.1%	1				
Illinois	A	South Carolina	80.60	79.64	45.2%	0				

 

thats the number 20 team in the country whose most likely outcome playing ufs schedule is 6-4

 

What a joke, you act like thats cut and dry. God i hope the Illini play Florida like its being speculated

[Mephistopheles]

florida plays fsu every year.

arkansas and texas get their old rivalry back together for games in 08 and 09, with Arkansas going to UT in 08.

 

2008 Schedules vs BCS schools or big name mid major schools:

Arkansas at Texas

Ole Miss at Wake Forest

Auburn at West Virginia

Tennessee at UCLA

South Carolina at Clemson

Kentucky at Louisville

Georgia vs Georgia Tech

Georgia at Arizona State

Florida vs Hawaii

Florida vs Miami (Fl)

Florida at Florida State

Mississippi State at Georgia Tech

 

Alabama is trying to get Clemson to play opening week next season. The SEC doesn't play anyone out of conference argument isn't going to work next year. Not to mention they're on the road a lot.

[dew1679666265]

that is a tough non-con. why can't Penn State schedule that way? there are times i wish PSU was independent again. back when i first started watching, they'd have schedules including Miami (FL), Alabama, Syracuse, Pitt, Rutgers, Notre Dame, Texas, West Virginia, etc. The AD here is lame

 

Tennessee has had a long standing policy to always play at least one tough non-conference game a year. In the recent past we've played UCLA, Cal, Notre Dame and Miami.

 

We go to UCLA next year and then get them in Neyland in 09. We also have Oklahoma, NC State, Oregon and were talking to Virginia Tech for future years.

 

It's nice to see the Vols take on legitimately good teams from other conferences, yet still have some breathers in between tough SEC opponents.

 

- As Meph has mentioned, Florida plays Miami, Hawaii, and at Florida State in 2008.

- Auburn picks up a home and away with West Viriginia in 2008 and 2009. (Auburn played a home and away with USC just a couple, few years ago)

- Tennessee plays home and away with UCLA in 2008 and 2009; they'll also play NC State

- Georgia plays Georgia Tech every season

- South Carolina plays Clemson.

- LSU played Virginia Tech this year.

- Alabama played Florida State this year "at a neutral site" in Jacksonville.

 

Some have suggested that all of the SEC's out of conference games are at home, but the SEC does play on the road against some formidable opponents.

 

(Cuse is going to let me have it if West Virginia beats Auburn next year )

 

Yeah, the SEC may play less major opponents than some other conferences but it's not as drastic as some make it out to be. Plus, other conferences play their own patsies, so there's really not that much difference out of conference.

[TruffleShuffle]

it would really help the big ten's ability to schedule tough OOC games if they'd stop ending their season the weekend before thanksgiving every year.

[Mephistopheles]

which assumes that sagarin's ratings are perfect, and that's definitely an airtight assumption

 

not really. the computers have the gators top ten iirc

 

Computer rankings for Florida:

 

15th, 11th, 9th, 10th, 11th, 13th.

 

So most have Florida just outside the top 10, although slightly higher than their 14th ranking in the human polls.

 

Theyre 11th overall in the computers and they dont take in account margin of victory at all (and doing it at the slightest amount is certainly fine and would push them in the top ten)

 

there SHOULD be no doubt in your mind theyre top ten.

[Mephistopheles]

For kicks and giggles, if the Illini had UF's schedule:

 

Team	H/A	Opponent	A_P	H_P			P(10-0)	P(9-1)	P(8-2)	P(7-3) or less
Illinois	H	Western Kentucky	58.26	80.60	94.7%	1	0.15%	5.5%	7.98%	86.39%
Illinois	H	Troy 	71.53	80.60	79.4%	1				
Illinois	H	Tennesse	80.17	80.60	58.7%	1		Most Likely		
Illinois	A	Ole Miss	80.60	65.88	80.1%	1		W	L	
Illinois	H	Auburn	81.57	80.60	54.8%	1		6	4	
Illinois	A	LSU	80.60	93.36	14.5%	0				
Illinois	A	Kentucky	80.60	82.36	37.6%	0				
Illinois	N	Georgia	83.25	80.60	42.4%	0				
Illinois	H	Vanderbilt	73.65	80.60	75.1%	1				
Illinois	A	South Carolina	80.60	79.64	45.2%	0				

 

thats the number 20 team in the country whose most likely outcome playing ufs schedule is 6-4

 

What a joke, you act like thats cut and dry. God i hope the Illini play Florida like its being speculated

 

really its better than any lame thing you come up with other than "omg im a illini fan so theyre the best and the big ten rocks and the sec sucks and the sec is overrated because they kick everyones ass"

 

which is better? a NON BIASED APPROACHED....or the homer approach?

 

the system doesnt give out cookies to SEC teams. There's no SEC bonus. The SEC is just that good, plain and simple. Imnot saying these probabilities are exact, but they give a DAMN good idea of how well such and such would play in a game. If Florida plays Illinois in a nuetral site, Florida would win about 80 percent of the time. Dont blame me if you for the fact that if a team has a 90% chance to win each game and they play 5 games then there is over a 40 percent chance for them to lose at least one of those five games. I

[Derwood]

i love Penn State, but the Big Ten powers that be are really starting to piss me off

 

- mandated 12 game schedule with no bye weeks

- worst officials in the country

- these gems of non-con games for 2008 (not all announced)

- Illinois - Mizzou, UL-Lafayette, E. Illinois

- Indiana - didn't find it

- Iowa - Maine, Fla. Intl. Iowa St. Pitt

- Michigan - Utah, Miami (OH), ND, Toledo

- Michigan St. - California, E. Michigan, Fla Atl., ND

- Minnesota - TBD MAC school, Bowling Green, Montana St., Fla Atl.

- Northwestern - didn't find it

- Ohio St. - Youngstown St., Ohio, USC, Troy

- Penn St. - Coastal Carolina, Arkansas St., Syracuse

- Purdue - didn't find

- Wisconsin - Akron, Fresno St., Marshall

 

Wow, amazing. I count, let's see, Mizzou, Cal, USC....yep, three decent teams in the lot. Maybe Notre Dame if they get their crap together.

 

If the Big Ten wants people to stop calling it weak, maybe it's AD's should get together and decide to go play real teams rather than pay $500k to a division II school to come and get their ass beat

[Mephistopheles]

At least 2008 won't be the third consecutive year a crappy Ohio State team is in the BCS driver seat when November rolls around. I suspect USC will kick their butts easily to end their title run to open up the season.

 

They also have the 13th SEC team making a trip there, Troy. Nice...

 

Yeah the 06 OSU team was deserving and i know it. they did beat a defending NC team in Texas.

[Mephistopheles]

Purdue has Oregon, Northern Colorado, Notre Dame and Central Michigan

N'western has Syracuse, Duke, Southern Illinois and Ohio

Indiana has Ball State, dunno the rest

 

They go to Oregon in 09. Oregon wont be very next year though.

[cubweiser03]

Juicy.....

Three separate sources indicate that Carr has made his decision to retire official and people around the athletic department are being told. The formal announcement will come after the Ohio State game, possibly at the Monday press conference, possibly a day or two later.

[Guest]

Great, Michigan (or LSU) will be in the market for a coach this offseason. :(

 

(Who am I kidding? UCLA will go after a cheaper assistant type anyways.)

[Andy]

it would really help the big ten's ability to schedule tough OOC games if they'd stop ending their season the weekend before thanksgiving every year.

It would help if the conference didn't refuse to play ND after September.

[snoodmonger]

Even if the SEC is the best conference, it doesn't automatically mean the best team in the country will be from the SEC. So while you have every right to be proud of your 7-3 team, it's still possible the best team is from outside the conference.

[Mephistopheles]

no one said that.

 

although lsu is probably the best team in the country

[Derwood]

no one said that.

 

although lsu is probably the best team in the country

 

probably. and if they beat Oregon or Oklahoma, there will be no doubt

[snoodmonger]

no one said that.

 

although lsu is probably the best team in the country

 

 

I think Oregon, but I think we'll get to see it settled on the field.

[Mephistopheles]

no one said that.

 

although lsu is probably the best team in the country

 

 

I think Oregon, but I think we'll get to see it settled on the field.

 

thats the problem....its a 45-55 split game. it wont be settled on the field...