Soriano will return to the leadoff spot upon his return.

[Electron Blue]

This move is a surprise to you?

 

All in all, it doesn't really matter. Lineup order is almost entirely irrelevant (barring extreme examples).

 

Then why was everyone soo upset when Neifi and Izturis went 1-2 in the lineup last year? If it wouldn't matter if they batting 7th 8th, or 1-2, I don't see what the uproar was all about.

 

Because by having Neifi and Izturis at 1-2 you are giving them more ab's than what they would get if they were batting 7-8.

Actually, the whole Neifi thing was a perfect example of why I don't believe the lineup doesn't matter. When Lee was having a career year, he only ended up with a little over 100 RBI. The reason is because Neifi and Macias, among others who sucked were batting in front of him. Not only does it make it worse that these guys get more AB's but the fact that don't get on base also causes the players behind them not to get RBI opportunities.

 

I don't think it's that simple. Sure D-Lee missed out on some RBIs. But did that mean the team could have scored more runs with a different lineup? Not necessarily. Lee was still producing (getting on base; not creating outs) to benefit the other players in the order...

 

A single players' RBI total (a nearly irrelevant stat in this context, IMHO) shouldn't factor into the discussion.

 

EDIT: to add on, Lee had a RC/G of 10.7 that year -- easily a career high. I'm not a stats expert though. Seems important to me . . .

[Derwood]

This move is a surprise to you?

 

All in all, it doesn't really matter. Lineup order is almost entirely irrelevant (barring extreme examples).

 

Then why was everyone soo upset when Neifi and Izturis went 1-2 in the lineup last year? If it wouldn't matter if they batting 7th 8th, or 1-2, I don't see what the uproar was all about.

 

Because by having Neifi and Izturis at 1-2 you are giving them more ab's than what they would get if they were batting 7-8.

Actually, the whole Neifi thing was a perfect example of why I don't believe the lineup doesn't matter. When Lee was having a career year, he only ended up with a little over 100 RBI. The reason is because Neifi and Macias, among others who sucked were batting in front of him. Not only does it make it worse that these guys get more AB's but the fact that don't get on base also causes the players behind them not to get RBI opportunities.

 

the neifi/macias problem was less about where they batted in the lineup and more about the fact that they were in the lineup at all

[jersey cubs fan]

This move is a surprise to you?

 

All in all, it doesn't really matter. Lineup order is almost entirely irrelevant (barring extreme examples).

 

Then why was everyone soo upset when Neifi and Izturis went 1-2 in the lineup last year? If it wouldn't matter if they batting 7th 8th, or 1-2, I don't see what the uproar was all about.

 

Because by having Neifi and Izturis at 1-2 you are giving them more ab's than what they would get if they were batting 7-8.

Actually, the whole Neifi thing was a perfect example of why I don't believe the lineup doesn't matter. When Lee was having a career year, he only ended up with a little over 100 RBI. The reason is because Neifi and Macias, among others who sucked were batting in front of him. Not only does it make it worse that these guys get more AB's but the fact that don't get on base also causes the players behind them not to get RBI opportunities.

 

the neifi/macias problem was less about where they batted in the lineup and more about the fact that they were in the lineup at all

 

Yes, their presence at all was the worst part, but the spot just added insult to injury.

[Mizzou]

Instead of looking at James's macro theory and applying it to the Cubs, let's think independent at what's best for our team. Because the Cubs offense is lacking power, and Theriot has been successful in the leadoff spot, the Cubs offense might best perform with Soriano hitting 3,4 or 5.

I agree with every word of this.

[Electron Blue]

This move is a surprise to you?

 

All in all, it doesn't really matter. Lineup order is almost entirely irrelevant (barring extreme examples).

 

Then why was everyone soo upset when Neifi and Izturis went 1-2 in the lineup last year? If it wouldn't matter if they batting 7th 8th, or 1-2, I don't see what the uproar was all about.

 

Because by having Neifi and Izturis at 1-2 you are giving them more ab's than what they would get if they were batting 7-8.

Actually, the whole Neifi thing was a perfect example of why I don't believe the lineup doesn't matter. When Lee was having a career year, he only ended up with a little over 100 RBI. The reason is because Neifi and Macias, among others who sucked were batting in front of him. Not only does it make it worse that these guys get more AB's but the fact that don't get on base also causes the players behind them not to get RBI opportunities.

 

the neifi/macias problem was less about where they batted in the lineup and more about the fact that they were in the lineup at all

 

The thing that bothered me most wasn't the loss of X runs or X wins over the course of the year -- it was the logic behind it. Dusty set the lineup that way because it made sense to him. Neifi was a grinder with some speed, Macias was an ideal #2 (made contact?). If I believed that Dusty believed in James' theories, it would have been different.

[Warren Brusstar]

This move is a surprise to you?

 

All in all, it doesn't really matter. Lineup order is almost entirely irrelevant (barring extreme examples).

 

Then why was everyone soo upset when Neifi and Izturis went 1-2 in the lineup last year? If it wouldn't matter if they batting 7th 8th, or 1-2, I don't see what the uproar was all about.

 

Because by having Neifi and Izturis at 1-2 you are giving them more ab's than what they would get if they were batting 7-8.

Actually, the whole Neifi thing was a perfect example of why I don't believe the lineup doesn't matter. When Lee was having a career year, he only ended up with a little over 100 RBI. The reason is because Neifi and Macias, among others who sucked were batting in front of him. Not only does it make it worse that these guys get more AB's but the fact that don't get on base also causes the players behind them not to get RBI opportunities.

 

It's undoubtedly true that Lee drove in fewer runs because Neifi, Macias, and Patterson frequently hit in front of him On the other hand, how many more runs did the Cubs score because Neifi, Macias, and Patterson did not hit behind him? In other words, the bottom of the Cubs order drove in more runs than Patterson/Neifi/Macias would have driven in if they hit in those spots.

[Soul]

I'd rather see Soriano hit further down, but the guy doesn't do as well and doesn't want to. Kind of sucks. Theriot would appear to be the best leadoff option, easily.

[OleMissCub]

Can you please shrink that damn sig?

 

+1

[NewUserName]

I don't buy into the whole "line-up order doesn't matter" thing. It is also a common knowledge of baseball if you have an awesome hitter behind you, you are going to see more fast balls or good pitches because the last thing you want to do is walk that batter.

 

Also... if for one day, Lou flipped the normal order to go 9-1 instead of 1-9 I guarantee EVERYONE here would complain. Oh and even if it only affects 1 game... that could be the difference.

 

 

Do you have any links that prove your first statement. It is a common myth in baseball that a good hitter behind you will make you a better hitter. I dont have any links but Bill James in his abstract back in the 80s concluded that it helps some hitters to have a better hitter behind them but hurts others. So you could not come to the conclusion that a better hitter behind someone automatically makes them a better hitter. It is more of case by case thing.

 

No I don't have any "research" to prove my statement... but as I have used in the past... assume Cedeno is hitting behind Ramirez. If we had a non power hitter who really isn't that great hitting behind the best slugger on the team it is COMMON SENSE (not common knowledge I guess) that the pitcher would attempt to pitch around Ramirez in order to get to the easy out. Now... if we had Soriano hitting behind Ramirez, it would make more sense to go after Ramirez and try to get him out by any means possible (aka not walking him) In order to make sure Soriano comes up with less people on base. So if they are trying as hard as they can not to walk Ramirez because Soriano is up, that means there will be more strikes thrown and that also means more hittable pitches.

 

 

Let me introduce you to a guy named Bill James. Starting in the late 70s he started writing a book called the Baseball Abstract. It was a yearly publication. A lot of what the books were about was there was a lot of "Baseball Knowledge" or common sense that littered what managers did and announcers announced. Things like you have to have a "speedster leading off" or "a good contact hitter hitting second" or that "power pitchers pitched better in cold weather". Some of these old myths were true(like dont make the last out at 3rd) Some were myths (power pitchers pitch better in cold weather). Almost all of them were driven by "Common Sense". Like you will hit better with a better hitter behind you. Truth is he proved it was different for each hitter. Some hit better, some hit worse. Like Dale Murphy hit better with Bob Horner out. Most certainly cannot draw a definate conclusion that someone will hit better with just becuase there is a better hitter behind them, common sense or not.

[Derwood]

if Cedeno was hitting behind Ramirez, wouldn't you want to throw good pitches to Ramirez, as putting him on base is fine considering how unlikely it is that Cedeno would drive him in? So why not pitch to Ramirez in that situation? Walking him would mitigate some potential damage, but he's still getting on base

[Cynosure]

if Cedeno was hitting behind Ramirez, wouldn't you want to throw good pitches to Ramirez, as putting him on base is fine considering how unlikely it is that Cedeno would drive him in? So why not pitch to Ramirez in that situation? Walking him would mitigate some potential damage, but he's still getting on base

 

Yep, I agree with you that he's getting on base. This is why I like OPS way more than OBP due to the fact that it shows a hitter's worth a lot more than just OBP.

 

I would be interested to see the Cubs line-up in reverse order with OPS being listed instead of OBP. If someone wants to do that it would be great other wise I'll take a look after the game.

[Derwood]

 

Marshall P

Kendall C

Murton RF

DeRosa 2B

Jones CF

Ramirez 3B

Lee 1B

Theriot SS

Soriano LF

 

by OPS

 

.235 (Marshall)

.822

.711

.785

.735

.926

.898

.723

.847

[Cynosure]

 

Marshall P

Kendall C

Murton RF

DeRosa 2B

Jones CF

Ramirez 3B

Lee 1B

Theriot SS

Soriano LF

 

by OPS

 

.235 (Marshall)

.822

.711

.785

.735

.926

.898

.723

.847

 

Hmm kind of proves my point more than OBP, but I still see agree with you on how it doesn't matter as much as I thought. Thank you for looking that up.

[Derwood]

 

Marshall P

Kendall C

Murton RF

DeRosa 2B

Jones CF

Ramirez 3B

Lee 1B

Theriot SS

Soriano LF

 

by OPS

 

.235 (Marshall)

.822

.711

.785

.735

.926

.898

.723

.847

 

Hmm kind of proves my point more than OBP, but I still see agree with you on how it doesn't matter as much as I thought. Thank you for looking that up.

 

what the two lists (OBP and OPS) show me is that the ideal lineup would be something like this:

 

Theriot

Kendall

Lee

Ramirez

Soriano

DeRosa

Jones

Murton

Pitcher

[Skyballer]

if Cedeno was hitting behind Ramirez, wouldn't you want to throw good pitches to Ramirez, as putting him on base is fine considering how unlikely it is that Cedeno would drive him in? So why not pitch to Ramirez in that situation? Walking him would mitigate some potential damage, but he's still getting on base

If you throw good pitches to Ramirez, those pitches end up 450 feet away.

[Derwood]

if Cedeno was hitting behind Ramirez, wouldn't you want to throw good pitches to Ramirez, as putting him on base is fine considering how unlikely it is that Cedeno would drive him in? So why not pitch to Ramirez in that situation? Walking him would mitigate some potential damage, but he's still getting on base

If you throw good pitches to Ramirez, those pitches end up 450 feet away.

 

no, if you throw bad pitches to Ramirez they end up 450 feet away. it's possible to throw good pitches for strikes

[Skyballer]

if Cedeno was hitting behind Ramirez, wouldn't you want to throw good pitches to Ramirez, as putting him on base is fine considering how unlikely it is that Cedeno would drive him in? So why not pitch to Ramirez in that situation? Walking him would mitigate some potential damage, but he's still getting on base

If you throw good pitches to Ramirez, those pitches end up 450 feet away.

 

no, if you throw bad pitches to Ramirez they end up 450 feet away. it's possible to throw good pitches for strikes

I thought you were talking about good pitches for a hitter

[soccer10k]

This move is a surprise to you?

 

All in all, it doesn't really matter. Lineup order is almost entirely irrelevant (barring extreme examples).

 

Then why was everyone soo upset when Neifi and Izturis went 1-2 in the lineup last year? If it wouldn't matter if they batting 7th 8th, or 1-2, I don't see what the uproar was all about.

 

The uproar was because their pathetic bats were in the lineup in the first place. The lineup order thing is often misinterpreted.

 

Some people think it means that if you replace Player A with Player B, it's not going to make a big difference, which is incorrect. What it means is that if you take your best 8 hitters (or 9 in the AL), it doesn't really matter where you put them in the order as long as you put your best hitters in the order to begin with.

 

EDIT: Guess others have explained it better before me. Guess I should have read the whole thread first.

 

Also, can somebody explain where the 10 runs scored approximately equals 1 win thing comes from. It's not that I don't believe it just curious how it was figured out.