Soriano will return to the leadoff spot upon his return.

[Banedon]

Cubs.com[/url]"]Ryan Theriot is thriving in the leadoff spot but when Alfonso Soriano returns, he'll be back at the top of the Cubs' order, Piniella said.

Piniella is an idiot.

 

Ironic statement.

 

Careful.

[Cynosure]

I don't buy into the whole "line-up order doesn't matter" thing. It is also a common knowledge of baseball if you have an awesome hitter behind you, you are going to see more fast balls or good pitches because the last thing you want to do is walk that batter.

 

Also... if for one day, Lou flipped the normal order to go 9-1 instead of 1-9 I guarantee EVERYONE here would complain. Oh and even if it only affects 1 game... that could be the difference.

[ctcf]

I don't buy into the whole "line-up order doesn't matter" thing. It is also a common knowledge of baseball if you have an awesome hitter behind you, you are going to see more fast balls or good pitches because the last thing you want to do is walk that batter.

 

Also... if for one day, Lou flipped the normal order to go 9-1 instead of 1-9 I guarantee EVERYONE here would complain. Oh and even if it only affects 1 game... that could be the difference.

 

What is the actual point of that last sentence? Are you actually letting us know that if Lou actually DID flip the lineup that one game might be the difference of us making the playoffs? Whats the point?

[moorecg]

This move is a surprise to you?

 

All in all, it doesn't really matter. Lineup order is almost entirely irrelevant (barring extreme examples).

 

Then why was everyone soo upset when Neifi and Izturis went 1-2 in the lineup last year? If it wouldn't matter if they batting 7th 8th, or 1-2, I don't see what the uproar was all about.

[Cynosure]

Sorry to be confusing, they should have been separated into different paragraphs.

 

2 thoughts strung together...

 

Earlier in the thread someone said that the line-up order would only affect 1 or 2 games over the course of the season... well, that could make or break the playoffs so I find the line-up order very important.

 

And when people say "line-up order doesn't matter" my question is how many people would not complain of a line-up of:

 

Marshall P

Kendall C

Murton RF

DeRosa 2B

Jones CF

Ramirez 3B

Lee 1B

Theriot SS

Soriano LF

[Derwood]

Sorry to be confusing, they should have been separated into different paragraphs.

 

2 thoughts strung together...

 

Earlier in the thread someone said that the line-up order would only affect 1 or 2 games over the course of the season... well, that could make or break the playoffs so I find the line-up order very important.

 

And when people say "line-up order doesn't matter" my question is how many people would not complain of a line-up of:

 

Marshall P

Kendall C

Murton RF

DeRosa 2B

Jones CF

Ramirez 3B

Lee 1B

Theriot SS

Soriano LF

 

they would complain because their idea of what a good lineup should be is so ingrained in them that they can't handle a little statistical analysis.

 

Here's your "oh god what a horrible lineup" in terms of OBP:

 

.150 (rough average of our starting pitchers' OBP)

.404

.332

.366

.331

.368

.405

.350

.336

 

minus the pitchers spot, that lineup is barely different than the "traditional" lineup (and both, in terms of OBP, are poorly constructed)

[Keener98]

This move is a surprise to you?

 

All in all, it doesn't really matter. Lineup order is almost entirely irrelevant (barring extreme examples).

 

Then why was everyone soo upset when Neifi and Izturis went 1-2 in the lineup last year? If it wouldn't matter if they batting 7th 8th, or 1-2, I don't see what the uproar was all about.

 

Because by having Neifi and Izturis at 1-2 you are giving them more ab's than what they would get if they were batting 7-8.

[Cynosure]

Sorry to be confusing, they should have been separated into different paragraphs.

 

2 thoughts strung together...

 

Earlier in the thread someone said that the line-up order would only affect 1 or 2 games over the course of the season... well, that could make or break the playoffs so I find the line-up order very important.

 

And when people say "line-up order doesn't matter" my question is how many people would not complain of a line-up of:

 

Marshall P

Kendall C

Murton RF

DeRosa 2B

Jones CF

Ramirez 3B

Lee 1B

Theriot SS

Soriano LF

 

they would complain because their idea of what a good lineup should be is so ingrained in them that they can't handle a little statistical analysis.

 

Here's your "oh god what a horrible lineup" in terms of OBP:

 

.150 (rough average of our starting pitchers' OBP)

.404

.332

.366

.331

.368

.405

.350

.336

 

minus the pitchers spot, that lineup is barely different than the "traditional" lineup (and both, in terms of OBP, are poorly constructed)

 

Never looked at it that way and that is pretty interesting and true.

 

However, by having your best hitters hit earlier gives them more ABs per game and per season. And if it does only affect 1 or 2 games, that COULD conceivably be the difference of making it to the playoffs or going home come October. Therefore line-up order does matter.

[Keener98]

Sorry to be confusing, they should have been separated into different paragraphs.

 

2 thoughts strung together...

 

Earlier in the thread someone said that the line-up order would only affect 1 or 2 games over the course of the season... well, that could make or break the playoffs so I find the line-up order very important.

 

And when people say "line-up order doesn't matter" my question is how many people would not complain of a line-up of:

 

Marshall P

Kendall C

Murton RF

DeRosa 2B

Jones CF

Ramirez 3B

Lee 1B

Theriot SS

Soriano LF

 

they would complain because their idea of what a good lineup should be is so ingrained in them that they can't handle a little statistical analysis.

 

Here's your "oh god what a horrible lineup" in terms of OBP:

 

.150 (rough average of our starting pitchers' OBP)

.404

.332

.366

.331

.368

.405

.350

.336

 

minus the pitchers spot, that lineup is barely different than the "traditional" lineup (and both, in terms of OBP, are poorly constructed)

 

Never looked at it that way and that is pretty interesting and true.

 

However, by having your best hitters hit earlier gives them more ABs per game and per season. And if it does only affect 1 or 2 games, that COULD conceivably be the difference of making it to the playoffs or going home come October. Therefore line-up order does matter.

 

But it matters a lot less than what people think it does.

[Derwood]

 

However, by having your best hitters hit earlier gives them more ABs per game and per season. And if it does only affect 1 or 2 games, that COULD conceivably be the difference of making it to the playoffs or going home come October. Therefore line-up order does matter.

 

sure, and Bill James isn't saying "put your horrible OBP guys at the top" or "draw names out of a hat". He's just debunking the conventional wisdom of "leadoff hitter, guy who can bunt, best hitter, best slugger, etc." lineup construction

[Andy]

Oh well. Here's hoping The Riot has nailed down the #2 slot if nothing else.

[Exile on Waveland]

Sorry to be confusing, they should have been separated into different paragraphs.

 

2 thoughts strung together...

 

Earlier in the thread someone said that the line-up order would only affect 1 or 2 games over the course of the season... well, that could make or break the playoffs so I find the line-up order very important.

 

And when people say "line-up order doesn't matter" my question is how many people would not complain of a line-up of:

 

Marshall P

Kendall C

Murton RF

DeRosa 2B

Jones CF

Ramirez 3B

Lee 1B

Theriot SS

Soriano LF

 

they would complain because their idea of what a good lineup should be is so ingrained in them that they can't handle a little statistical analysis.

 

Here's your "oh god what a horrible lineup" in terms of OBP:

 

.150 (rough average of our starting pitchers' OBP)

.404

.332

.366

.331

.368

.405

.350

.336

 

minus the pitchers spot, that lineup is barely different than the "traditional" lineup (and both, in terms of OBP, are poorly constructed)

 

Never looked at it that way and that is pretty interesting and true.

 

However, by having your best hitters hit earlier gives them more ABs per game and per season. And if it does only affect 1 or 2 games, that COULD conceivably be the difference of making it to the playoffs or going home come October. Therefore line-up order does matter.

 

But it matters a lot less than what people think it does.

 

Yes, exactly. It does matter some, it's just not the issue most make it out to be. The myth that really needs debunking, though, isn't the importance of lineup order, but the importance of a "leadoff hitter" and a "two-hole hitter" and such.

[Backtobanks]

I say we stick Soriano in the 5 spot and leave him there, no moving him back to leadoff when he goes hitless for 2 games. He's had plenty of hitless streaks in the leadoff spot as well.

 

I don't know why we continue to discuss this, we all think Soriano would be better in the middle of the order and playing RF, but Lou has said Soriano will bat leadoff and play LF and his is the only opinion that counts.

[Derwood]

I say we stick Soriano in the 5 spot and leave him there, no moving him back to leadoff when he goes hitless for 2 games. He's had plenty of hitless streaks in the leadoff spot as well.

 

I don't know why we continue to discuss this, we all think Soriano would be better in the middle of the order and playing RF, but Lou has said Soriano will bat leadoff and play LF and his is the only opinion that counts.

 

it's discussed because we're frustrated that our manager is more interested in placating a pouty superstar than putting the best lineup on the field. would you be okay if, say, Carlos Zambrano said "I would really rather pitching the 6th inning out of the pen instead of starting"?

[moorecg]

This move is a surprise to you?

 

All in all, it doesn't really matter. Lineup order is almost entirely irrelevant (barring extreme examples).

 

Then why was everyone soo upset when Neifi and Izturis went 1-2 in the lineup last year? If it wouldn't matter if they batting 7th 8th, or 1-2, I don't see what the uproar was all about.

 

Because by having Neifi and Izturis at 1-2 you are giving them more ab's than what they would get if they were batting 7-8.

 

So lineup construction does matter...similarly...I've got to think that, with all respect to Mr. James, the pitches that Lee/Soriano/Ramirez sees (with one or two other power bats behind him) are much better than they'd be if it was Ramirez followed by the pitcher, or some other non-hitter...Maybe its just me, but I think lineup construction does matter....

[Cynosure]

This move is a surprise to you?

 

All in all, it doesn't really matter. Lineup order is almost entirely irrelevant (barring extreme examples).

 

Then why was everyone soo upset when Neifi and Izturis went 1-2 in the lineup last year? If it wouldn't matter if they batting 7th 8th, or 1-2, I don't see what the uproar was all about.

 

Because by having Neifi and Izturis at 1-2 you are giving them more ab's than what they would get if they were batting 7-8.

 

So lineup construction does matter...similarly...I've got to think that, with all respect to Mr. James, the pitches that Lee/Soriano/Ramirez sees (with one or two other power bats behind him) are much better than they'd be if it was Ramirez followed by the pitcher, or some other non-hitter...Maybe its just me, but I think lineup construction does matter....

 

Yep this is what I said earlier.

[NewUserName]

I don't buy into the whole "line-up order doesn't matter" thing. It is also a common knowledge of baseball if you have an awesome hitter behind you, you are going to see more fast balls or good pitches because the last thing you want to do is walk that batter.

 

Also... if for one day, Lou flipped the normal order to go 9-1 instead of 1-9 I guarantee EVERYONE here would complain. Oh and even if it only affects 1 game... that could be the difference.

 

 

Do you have any links that prove your first statement. It is a common myth in baseball that a good hitter behind you will make you a better hitter. I dont have any links but Bill James in his abstract back in the 80s concluded that it helps some hitters to have a better hitter behind them but hurts others. So you could not come to the conclusion that a better hitter behind someone automatically makes them a better hitter. It is more of case by case thing.

[Cynosure]

I don't buy into the whole "line-up order doesn't matter" thing. It is also a common knowledge of baseball if you have an awesome hitter behind you, you are going to see more fast balls or good pitches because the last thing you want to do is walk that batter.

 

Also... if for one day, Lou flipped the normal order to go 9-1 instead of 1-9 I guarantee EVERYONE here would complain. Oh and even if it only affects 1 game... that could be the difference.

 

 

Do you have any links that prove your first statement. It is a common myth in baseball that a good hitter behind you will make you a better hitter. I dont have any links but Bill James in his abstract back in the 80s concluded that it helps some hitters to have a better hitter behind them but hurts others. So you could not come to the conclusion that a better hitter behind someone automatically makes them a better hitter. It is more of case by case thing.

 

No I don't have any "research" to prove my statement... but as I have used in the past... assume Cedeno is hitting behind Ramirez. If we had a non power hitter who really isn't that great hitting behind the best slugger on the team it is COMMON SENSE (not common knowledge I guess) that the pitcher would attempt to pitch around Ramirez in order to get to the easy out. Now... if we had Soriano hitting behind Ramirez, it would make more sense to go after Ramirez and try to get him out by any means possible (aka not walking him) In order to make sure Soriano comes up with less people on base. So if they are trying as hard as they can not to walk Ramirez because Soriano is up, that means there will be more strikes thrown and that also means more hittable pitches.

[Sammy Sofa]

This move is a surprise to you?

 

All in all, it doesn't really matter. Lineup order is almost entirely irrelevant (barring extreme examples).

 

Then why was everyone soo upset when Neifi and Izturis went 1-2 in the lineup last year? If it wouldn't matter if they batting 7th 8th, or 1-2, I don't see what the uproar was all about.

 

Because by having Neifi and Izturis at 1-2 you are giving them more ab's than what they would get if they were batting 7-8.

 

So lineup construction does matter...similarly...I've got to think that, with all respect to Mr. James, the pitches that Lee/Soriano/Ramirez sees (with one or two other power bats behind him) are much better than they'd be if it was Ramirez followed by the pitcher, or some other non-hitter...Maybe its just me, but I think lineup construction does matter....

 

Yep this is what I said earlier.

 

The first post in all these quotes said "barring extreme examples." I'd say putting two guys who would likely be the worst hitters on almost any MLB team, Neifi and Izturius, would be an "extreme example."

[SouthSideRyan]

 

No I don't have any "research" to prove my statement... but as I have used in the past... assume Cedeno is hitting behind Ramirez. If we had a non power hitter who really isn't that great hitting behind the best slugger on the team it is COMMON SENSE (not common knowledge I guess) that the pitcher would attempt to pitch around Ramirez in order to get to the easy out. Now... if we had Soriano hitting behind Ramirez, it would make more sense to go after Ramirez and try to get him out by any means possible (aka not walking him) In order to make sure Soriano comes up with less people on base. So if they are trying as hard as they can not to walk Ramirez because Soriano is up, that means there will be more strikes thrown and that also means more hittable pitches.

 

Wouldn't all #8 hitters have stud numbers then?

[badger1679666666]

The difference between the absolute worst lineup possible and the best lineup possible is less than a run per game. I believe Bill has admitted the limitations in this type of thinking though, because some guys, for whatever reason, don't hit as well in certain situations. It shouldn't make a difference, but you can't measure the psychological difference between hitting 1st and 4th.

 

Here's a fun tool to play around with.

 

link

 

I'll just do the Brewers, I'm using the most up to date stats, and going on the lineup similar to the one used in the Brewers-Phillies series a few weeks ago

 

Hart

Hardy

Braun

Fielder

Hall

Jenkins

Ponch

Weeks

Pitcher spot (.125/.200/.200) is the number I used for the pitcher's spot.

 

That lineup, in that order, would average 5.17 R/G

 

The ideal lineup, based on the numbers, would be

 

Weeks

Braun

Hart

Fielder

Jenkins

Ponch

Hall

Hardy

Pitcher

 

That lineup would average 5.30 R/G

 

The difference between the logical lineup above and the best lineup is .13 R/G. .13x162 games = 21 runs, or roughly 2 wins. Now, based on the numbers put in, this is the worst lineup that Yost could put out there

 

Ponch

Starting Pitcher

Hall

Hardy

Weeks

Jenkins

Fielder

Hart

Braun

 

That lineup would average 4.77 R/G. So, take the 5.17 and subtract 4.77 and you have .40x162 games = 65 runs, or roughly 6.5 wins. Finally, take the best possible output, 5.30 and subtract the worst, 4.77, and you get .53x162 games = 85.9 runs, or roughly 8.5 wins.

 

So, to summarize it simply, the difference between the absolute worst lineup possible and the best lineup possible is about 9 wins. No manager is ever going to bat his pitcher 2nd, not even Tony LaRussa. The reality is that the deviation from the statistical best lineup to the average major league lineup is probably 2-3 wins. Most managers get it into their heads that player X is a leadoff hitter, or player Y is a cleanup hitter and they keep them in those spots. Yost apparently just likes juggling things around. My general feeling is, you want a logical lineup, but you want to try and put your biggest out producers in the bottom of the lineup because they will get the fewest chances to make outs.

[Cynosure]

 

No I don't have any "research" to prove my statement... but as I have used in the past... assume Cedeno is hitting behind Ramirez. If we had a non power hitter who really isn't that great hitting behind the best slugger on the team it is COMMON SENSE (not common knowledge I guess) that the pitcher would attempt to pitch around Ramirez in order to get to the easy out. Now... if we had Soriano hitting behind Ramirez, it would make more sense to go after Ramirez and try to get him out by any means possible (aka not walking him) In order to make sure Soriano comes up with less people on base. So if they are trying as hard as they can not to walk Ramirez because Soriano is up, that means there will be more strikes thrown and that also means more hittable pitches.

 

Wouldn't all #8 hitters have stud numbers then?

 

No, because traditionally you have your worst hitter batting 8th (other than the pitcher).

[Derwood]

This move is a surprise to you?

 

All in all, it doesn't really matter. Lineup order is almost entirely irrelevant (barring extreme examples).

 

Then why was everyone soo upset when Neifi and Izturis went 1-2 in the lineup last year? If it wouldn't matter if they batting 7th 8th, or 1-2, I don't see what the uproar was all about.

 

Because by having Neifi and Izturis at 1-2 you are giving them more ab's than what they would get if they were batting 7-8.

 

So lineup construction does matter...similarly...I've got to think that, with all respect to Mr. James, the pitches that Lee/Soriano/Ramirez sees (with one or two other power bats behind him) are much better than they'd be if it was Ramirez followed by the pitcher, or some other non-hitter...Maybe its just me, but I think lineup construction does matter....

 

what's the difference between hitting your way on (because you see better pitches) or walking your way on (because you're being pitched around)? The end result is still a) getting on base and b) not making an out

[YearofDaCubs]

This move is a surprise to you?

 

All in all, it doesn't really matter. Lineup order is almost entirely irrelevant (barring extreme examples).

 

Then why was everyone soo upset when Neifi and Izturis went 1-2 in the lineup last year? If it wouldn't matter if they batting 7th 8th, or 1-2, I don't see what the uproar was all about.

 

Because by having Neifi and Izturis at 1-2 you are giving them more ab's than what they would get if they were batting 7-8.

Actually, the whole Neifi thing was a perfect example of why I don't believe the lineup doesn't matter. When Lee was having a career year, he only ended up with a little over 100 RBI. The reason is because Neifi and Macias, among others who sucked were batting in front of him. Not only does it make it worse that these guys get more AB's but the fact that don't get on base also causes the players behind them not to get RBI opportunities.

[Cynosure]

This move is a surprise to you?

 

All in all, it doesn't really matter. Lineup order is almost entirely irrelevant (barring extreme examples).

 

Then why was everyone soo upset when Neifi and Izturis went 1-2 in the lineup last year? If it wouldn't matter if they batting 7th 8th, or 1-2, I don't see what the uproar was all about.

 

Because by having Neifi and Izturis at 1-2 you are giving them more ab's than what they would get if they were batting 7-8.

 

So lineup construction does matter...similarly...I've got to think that, with all respect to Mr. James, the pitches that Lee/Soriano/Ramirez sees (with one or two other power bats behind him) are much better than they'd be if it was Ramirez followed by the pitcher, or some other non-hitter...Maybe its just me, but I think lineup construction does matter....

 

what's the difference between hitting your way on (because you see better pitches) or walking your way on (because you're being pitched around)? The end result is still a) getting on base and b) not making an out

 

The people being pitched around have power, and that power turns singles or walks into more bases and more runs.