Dunn rumor on BCB...

[Skyballer]

Any more news on Dunn? or Posada :wink: (cue Vance)

[reds44]

From Basebal lProspectus:

 

The Reds seem less and less likely to make a big move. Every deal for Adam Dunn has been scuttled early by Dunn's option being voided by a deal and by Wayne Krivsky's asking price. One wild scenario that's been thrown out there is a deal with the Yankees, where Dunn could fill in for Jason Giambi and the Reds would get back Shelley Duncan and Jeff Karstens, plus one more prospect. That doesn't seem like the right kind of return, so I'm discounting the rumor, though it does add some credence to another rumor--that of Walt Jocketty to Cincinnati. I'll let you connect the dots.

[TruffleShuffle]

Shelley Duncan and Jeff Karstens?!?!? Unless the other prospect is named Philip Hughes, that has to be a joke.

[davearm]

At a bare minimum, there's strong reason to suspect that if Dunn were to come here, he wouldn't deliver the phenomenal 900+ OPS numbers everyone is all gaga over.

 

Incorrect. That is not the bare minimum of conclusions. The bare minimum of conclusions is to believe that these numbers that you outline are meaningless. What you present is the worst case scenario, that he will continue 'trending' downward in the later months of the season, which is problematic for the reasons that TT states.

Wrong. An OPS of around 800, or 100 or more points lower than the 900+ that everyone is drooling over, is not the worst case scenario.

 

The worst case scenario is he repeats what he's already done once... something in the 650 range.

[CubmanPi]

From Basebal lProspectus:

 

The Reds seem less and less likely to make a big move. Every deal for Adam Dunn has been scuttled early by Dunn's option being voided by a deal and by Wayne Krivsky's asking price. One wild scenario that's been thrown out there is a deal with the Yankees, where Dunn could fill in for Jason Giambi and the Reds would get back Shelley Duncan and Jeff Karstens, plus one more prospect. That doesn't seem like the right kind of return, so I'm discounting the rumor, though it does add some credence to another rumor--that of Walt Jocketty to Cincinnati. I'll let you connect the dots.

If Shelley Duncan and a kicker aren't what the Reds are looking for in return for Dunn, I can't imagine the Cubs having what they want. Duncan seems exactly the type of player they should be seeking.

[Sarcastic]

No, he has a point about the average misrepresenting the whole. His previous year's poor play at the end of the season drops his average OPS below .800, when in two of the three yeasr, his OPS in August and Sept. was above .800, including a .900+ two month stretch. Based on the fact that, as noted before, time based splits are often not predictive, especially when, as you see with Dunn's splits, they aren't consistent to begin with, I'd bet that he'd be closer to his season OPS over the last two months than his three year average in Aug-Sept.

 

Later on in his career, he may establish some pattern, become a better first or second half player. Right now, we have one very good second half, one solid one, and one terrible one to go on. I don't see any convincing evidence.

The 2004-2007 monthly splits I put up are based on ~2000 ABs.

 

The .799 for August + September is based on 570 ABs.

 

You're not going to get very far (not with me at least) arguing that these sample sizes aren't large enough to draw any meaningful conclusions.

 

At a bare minimum, there's strong reason to suspect that if Dunn were to come here, he wouldn't deliver the phenomenal 900+ OPS numbers everyone is all gaga over.

 

I disagree. His post ASB numbers would worry me if they were at all consistent, but they aren't. They have been all over the map, from great to horrible. You can't possibly argue that that constitutes a definitive pattern in his career. Certainly, the .900+ OPS is not guaranteed, but I can't imagine that the .645 OPS is more likely, considering that it has happened only once in three years.

[soccer10k]

From Basebal lProspectus:

 

The Reds seem less and less likely to make a big move. Every deal for Adam Dunn has been scuttled early by Dunn's option being voided by a deal and by Wayne Krivsky's asking price. One wild scenario that's been thrown out there is a deal with the Yankees, where Dunn could fill in for Jason Giambi and the Reds would get back Shelley Duncan and Jeff Karstens, plus one more prospect. That doesn't seem like the right kind of return, so I'm discounting the rumor, though it does add some credence to another rumor--that of Walt Jocketty to Cincinnati. I'll let you connect the dots.

 

I bet Krivisky wants a team's entire bullpen in return for Dunn.

[seanimal]

Poor Adam Dunn gets to waste away in Cincinnati for yet another season. We'll see what happens if the Cubs are in contention next year and if they need a good LH bat from the outfield. That situation becomes even more interesting if Jockety is the GM there next season.

[RammyFanny]

From Basebal lProspectus:

 

The Reds seem less and less likely to make a big move. Every deal for Adam Dunn has been scuttled early by Dunn's option being voided by a deal and by Wayne Krivsky's asking price. One wild scenario that's been thrown out there is a deal with the Yankees, where Dunn could fill in for Jason Giambi and the Reds would get back Shelley Duncan and Jeff Karstens, plus one more prospect. That doesn't seem like the right kind of return, so I'm discounting the rumor, though it does add some credence to another rumor--that of Walt Jocketty to Cincinnati. I'll let you connect the dots.

 

I bet Krivisky wants a team's entire bullpen in return for Dunn.

 

Kenny Williams is waiting anxiously for that offer.

[davearm]

No, he has a point about the average misrepresenting the whole. His previous year's poor play at the end of the season drops his average OPS below .800, when in two of the three yeasr, his OPS in August and Sept. was above .800, including a .900+ two month stretch. Based on the fact that, as noted before, time based splits are often not predictive, especially when, as you see with Dunn's splits, they aren't consistent to begin with, I'd bet that he'd be closer to his season OPS over the last two months than his three year average in Aug-Sept.

 

Later on in his career, he may establish some pattern, become a better first or second half player. Right now, we have one very good second half, one solid one, and one terrible one to go on. I don't see any convincing evidence.

The 2004-2007 monthly splits I put up are based on ~2000 ABs.

 

The .799 for August + September is based on 570 ABs.

 

You're not going to get very far (not with me at least) arguing that these sample sizes aren't large enough to draw any meaningful conclusions.

 

At a bare minimum, there's strong reason to suspect that if Dunn were to come here, he wouldn't deliver the phenomenal 900+ OPS numbers everyone is all gaga over.

 

I disagree. His post ASB numbers would worry me if they were at all consistent, but they aren't. They have been all over the map, from great to horrible. You can't possibly argue that that constitutes a definitive pattern in his career. Certainly, the .900+ OPS is not guaranteed, but I can't imagine that the .645 OPS is more likely, considering that it has happened only once in three years.

With all due respect, I don't think you're viewing this situation objectively.

 

Here's what Dunn's been able to produce in late-season months since he became a full-time player in 2002.

 

Dunn's August OPSs, by month

Year	 PA	  OPS
2002	128	0.588
2003	 50	0.588
2004	117	1.000
2005	112	0.795
2006	116	0.700

Totl	523	0.754

 

Dunn's Sept/Oct OPSs, by month

Year	 PA	  OPS
2002	100	0.584
2004	127	0.828
2005	130	0.847
2006	109	0.594

Totl	466	0.728

 

I count 9 monthly observations there.

1 phenomenal one: OPS of 1000

2 good ones: OPS of 800-850

1 "meh" one: OPS of 795

1 poor one: OPS of 700

4 horrible ones: OPS below 600.

 

FOUR LATE-SEASON MONTHS BELOW 600! OUT OF NINE TOTAL!

 

Again I'll ask. Why is it widely accepted that Zambrano is a slow starter, yet unaccepted that Dunn is a poor finisher? How much more evidence needs to be presented here?

[Sarcastic]

Three of those four under .600 OPS months happened in 2002 or 2003, when Dunn was 22 and 23. I don't think that those necessarily have a huge impact on what should be expected from him at age 27. He's only had one truly awful month since 2003. Doesn't that tell you something?

 

If you remove his performances in his first two full years in the ML, then you can see that his play has been, as I said, all over the map.

 

As for Zambrano being a slow starter, I haven't seen his stats, so I don't know if he is consistently a slow starter or not. I think you probably see many people saying now because of the horrendously bad start he had this year.

[CubColtPacer]

Three of those four under .600 OPS months happened in 2002 or 2003, when Dunn was 22 and 23. I don't think that those necessarily have a huge impact on what should be expected from him at age 27. He's only had onne truly awful month since 2003. Doesn't that tell you something?

 

If you remove his performances in his first two full years in the ML, then you can see that his play has been, as I said, all over the map.

 

As for Zambrano being a slow starter, I haven't seen his stats, so I don't know if he is consistently a slow starter or not. I think you probably see many people saying now because of the horrendously bad start he had this year.

 

That's very true about Dunn, but if the Cubs got his second best month out of the 9 (.847 OPS) for the next two months, Dunn probably wouldn't be worth the amount it would take to get him. He would have to be better than that-which is certainly possible, but the question then becomes how likely it would be.

[Sarcastic]

Three of those four under .600 OPS months happened in 2002 or 2003, when Dunn was 22 and 23. I don't think that those necessarily have a huge impact on what should be expected from him at age 27. He's only had one truly awful month since 2003. Doesn't that tell you something?

 

If you remove his performances in his first two full years in the ML, then you can see that his play has been, as I said, all over the map.

 

As for Zambrano being a slow starter, I haven't seen his stats, so I don't know if he is consistently a slow starter or not. I think you probably see many people saying now because of the horrendously bad start he had this year.

 

That's very true about Dunn, but if the Cubs got his second best month out of the 9 (.847 OPS) for the next two months, Dunn probably wouldn't be worth the amount it would take to get him. He would have to be better than that-which is certainly possible, but the question then becomes how likely it would be.

 

My money would be on Dunn performing closer to his overall numbers this year than his career Aug-Sept numbers, but of course any player could have a good or bad stretch during the course of two months and end up with much better or worse numbers than usual. I don't really know what the Cubs would need to get him, so I can't say if it would be more than he's worth.

[davearm]

Three of those four under .600 OPS months happened in 2002 or 2003, when Dunn was 22 and 23. I don't think that those necessarily have a huge impact on what should be expected from him at age 27. He's only had one truly awful month since 2003. Doesn't that tell you something?

 

If you remove his performances in his first two full years in the ML, then you can see that his play has been, as I said, all over the map.

 

As for Zambrano being a slow starter, I haven't seen his stats, so I don't know if he is consistently a slow starter or not. I think you probably see many people saying now because of the horrendously bad start he had this year.

Even if you (conveniently) exclude 2002 and 2003, you still face a huge uphill battle trying to establish that Dunn has been any better than average in August and Sept/Oct. What you've got left is a smattering of 700 - mid 800 range OPSs, one 1000 OPS, and one 594 OPS. Pretty unspectacular.

[Sarcastic]

Three of those four under .600 OPS months happened in 2002 or 2003, when Dunn was 22 and 23. I don't think that those necessarily have a huge impact on what should be expected from him at age 27. He's only had one truly awful month since 2003. Doesn't that tell you something?

 

If you remove his performances in his first two full years in the ML, then you can see that his play has been, as I said, all over the map.

 

As for Zambrano being a slow starter, I haven't seen his stats, so I don't know if he is consistently a slow starter or not. I think you probably see many people saying now because of the horrendously bad start he had this year.

Even if you (conveniently) exclude 2002 and 2003, you still face a huge uphill battle trying to establish that Dunn has been any better than average in August and Sept/Oct. What you've got left is a smattering of 700 - mid 800 range OPSs, one 1000 OPS, and one 594 OPS. Pretty unspectacular.

 

Excluding 2002 and 2003 just happens to be a intersection of the convenient and the correct.

 

And I agree that he has not been spectacular in the last two months of the season over the last three years. He's had one very good finish (.900+), one solid one (.800+) and one horrible one (.645). That is still no conclusive proof of anything. You just can't turn this into a pattern when it is all over the place.

[Alfonso Soriano]

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2007/07/unfounded-rumor.html

Would you think less of me if I busted out the old Unfounded Rumors category? I know the #1 request at MLBTR is More Rumors. So why not toss a few unfounded ones out there? These are 100% unconfirmed, shaky rumors that have crossed my inbox. Believe them at your own risk.

 

But since 99% of deadline rumors don't happen anyway, why not put 'em out there for discussion?

 

* Word is that FedEx was at Reggie Sanders' house today, packing up his stuff. Not sure where he's headed. This one will have more substance if Sanders is nowhere to be found for tonight's game against the Yankees.

* If the Cubs somehow traded for Adam Dunn, where would they put him? Hard to imagine.

* Some folks have suggested that the Cubs will acquire Xavier Nady, but Bucco Blog shoots it down.

* Dontrelle Willis has been awful this month; there are whispers that he may need Tommy John surgery. Willis did experience forearm tightness in June, which is often a precursor to or euphemism for elbow problems. Despite his performance and the proclamations that he's not available, a Mariners' scout watched him on Monday.

* One rumor that is picking up a lot of steam is that I will be joining MetsBlog Radio tonight at 6pm CST to talk rumors for a half hour.

[reds44]

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2007/07/unfounded-rumor.html

Would you think less of me if I busted out the old Unfounded Rumors category? I know the #1 request at MLBTR is More Rumors. So why not toss a few unfounded ones out there? These are 100% unconfirmed, shaky rumors that have crossed my inbox. Believe them at your own risk.

 

But since 99% of deadline rumors don't happen anyway, why not put 'em out there for discussion?

 

* Word is that FedEx was at Reggie Sanders' house today, packing up his stuff. Not sure where he's headed. This one will have more substance if Sanders is nowhere to be found for tonight's game against the Yankees.

* If the Cubs somehow traded for Adam Dunn, where would they put him? Hard to imagine.

* Some folks have suggested that the Cubs will acquire Xavier Nady, but Bucco Blog shoots it down.

* Dontrelle Willis has been awful this month; there are whispers that he may need Tommy John surgery. Willis did experience forearm tightness in June, which is often a precursor to or euphemism for elbow problems. Despite his performance and the proclamations that he's not available, a Mariners' scout watched him on Monday.

* One rumor that is picking up a lot of steam is that I will be joining MetsBlog Radio tonight at 6pm CST to talk rumors for a half hour.

I'd put Soriano in RF.

[XZero771679666304]

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2007/07/unfounded-rumor.html

Would you think less of me if I busted out the old Unfounded Rumors category? I know the #1 request at MLBTR is More Rumors. So why not toss a few unfounded ones out there? These are 100% unconfirmed, shaky rumors that have crossed my inbox. Believe them at your own risk.

 

But since 99% of deadline rumors don't happen anyway, why not put 'em out there for discussion?

 

* Word is that FedEx was at Reggie Sanders' house today, packing up his stuff. Not sure where he's headed. This one will have more substance if Sanders is nowhere to be found for tonight's game against the Yankees.

* If the Cubs somehow traded for Adam Dunn, where would they put him? Hard to imagine.

* Some folks have suggested that the Cubs will acquire Xavier Nady, but Bucco Blog shoots it down.

* Dontrelle Willis has been awful this month; there are whispers that he may need Tommy John surgery. Willis did experience forearm tightness in June, which is often a precursor to or euphemism for elbow problems. Despite his performance and the proclamations that he's not available, a Mariners' scout watched him on Monday.

* One rumor that is picking up a lot of steam is that I will be joining MetsBlog Radio tonight at 6pm CST to talk rumors for a half hour.

I'd put Soriano in RF.

 

That would make sense, but knowing the Cubs they'd put Dunn in right.

[Ding Dong Johnson]

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2007/07/unfounded-rumor.html

Would you think less of me if I busted out the old Unfounded Rumors category? I know the #1 request at MLBTR is More Rumors. So why not toss a few unfounded ones out there? These are 100% unconfirmed, shaky rumors that have crossed my inbox. Believe them at your own risk.

 

But since 99% of deadline rumors don't happen anyway, why not put 'em out there for discussion?

 

* Word is that FedEx was at Reggie Sanders' house today, packing up his stuff. Not sure where he's headed. This one will have more substance if Sanders is nowhere to be found for tonight's game against the Yankees.

* If the Cubs somehow traded for Adam Dunn, where would they put him? Hard to imagine.

* Some folks have suggested that the Cubs will acquire Xavier Nady, but Bucco Blog shoots it down.

* Dontrelle Willis has been awful this month; there are whispers that he may need Tommy John surgery. Willis did experience forearm tightness in June, which is often a precursor to or euphemism for elbow problems. Despite his performance and the proclamations that he's not available, a Mariners' scout watched him on Monday.

* One rumor that is picking up a lot of steam is that I will be joining MetsBlog Radio tonight at 6pm CST to talk rumors for a half hour.

I'd put Soriano in RF.

 

I'd do that without Dunn

[jyoung55]

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2007/07/unfounded-rumor.html

Would you think less of me if I busted out the old Unfounded Rumors category? I know the #1 request at MLBTR is More Rumors. So why not toss a few unfounded ones out there? These are 100% unconfirmed, shaky rumors that have crossed my inbox. Believe them at your own risk.

 

But since 99% of deadline rumors don't happen anyway, why not put 'em out there for discussion?

 

* Word is that FedEx was at Reggie Sanders' house today, packing up his stuff. Not sure where he's headed. This one will have more substance if Sanders is nowhere to be found for tonight's game against the Yankees.

* If the Cubs somehow traded for Adam Dunn, where would they put him? Hard to imagine.

* Some folks have suggested that the Cubs will acquire Xavier Nady, but Bucco Blog shoots it down.

* Dontrelle Willis has been awful this month; there are whispers that he may need Tommy John surgery. Willis did experience forearm tightness in June, which is often a precursor to or euphemism for elbow problems. Despite his performance and the proclamations that he's not available, a Mariners' scout watched him on Monday.

* One rumor that is picking up a lot of steam is that I will be joining MetsBlog Radio tonight at 6pm CST to talk rumors for a half hour.

I'd put Soriano in RF.

 

Well go buy a ps3 and buy one of the baseball games... I'm sure he'd do well in RF there.

[Warren Brusstar]

As for Zambrano being a slow starter, I haven't seen his stats, so I don't know if he is consistently a slow starter or not. I think you probably see many people saying now because of the horrendously bad start he had this year.

 

Zambrano's ERA in April, by year:

 

2003 2.61

2004 3.55

2005 4.31

2006 5.35

2007 5.77

 

He's gotten progressively worse each year in the month of April. And 2003 is the only year his April ERA was lower than his ERA for the entire season.

[David]

Well go buy a ps3 and buy one of the baseball games... I'm sure he'd do well in RF there.

 

I don't see why you'd make the condescending remark.

 

It would make complete sense to move him to RF. Hell, he should be in RF now.

 

You act as though almost every other OF doesn't play the OF positions interchangeably (and, much of the time, far more out of place than Sori would be in RF).

[jyoung55]

Well go buy a ps3 and buy one of the baseball games... I'm sure he'd do well in RF there.

 

I don't see why you'd make the condescending remark.

 

It would make complete sense to move him to RF. Hell, he should be in RF now.

 

You act as though almost every other OF doesn't play the OF positions interchangeably (and, much of the time, far more out of place than Sori would be in RF).

 

Really? Well do you make the decisions for the team? Do you have personal knowledge of Soriano's disposition? Does a Reds fan or one of his sources?

 

The fact is our manager.... the guy actually filling out the lineup cards is keeping Soriano in LEFTFIELD. Why waste time on discussing any move of Soriano? Why not stay within that reality-based framework?

 

Maybe Soriano is just one of those finicky players who needs to be comfortable to produce, I dont know. What I do know is that he's NOT moving, until Lou says otherwise. And, therefore, any discussion of him moving (which seems to occur in a lot of these threads) is fantasy land talk... ie something you can go do in a video game.

[Exile on Waveland]

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2007/07/unfounded-rumor.html

Would you think less of me if I busted out the old Unfounded Rumors category? I know the #1 request at MLBTR is More Rumors. So why not toss a few unfounded ones out there? These are 100% unconfirmed, shaky rumors that have crossed my inbox. Believe them at your own risk.

 

But since 99% of deadline rumors don't happen anyway, why not put 'em out there for discussion?

 

* Word is that FedEx was at Reggie Sanders' house today, packing up his stuff. Not sure where he's headed. This one will have more substance if Sanders is nowhere to be found for tonight's game against the Yankees.

* If the Cubs somehow traded for Adam Dunn, where would they put him? Hard to imagine.

* Some folks have suggested that the Cubs will acquire Xavier Nady, but Bucco Blog shoots it down.

* Dontrelle Willis has been awful this month; there are whispers that he may need Tommy John surgery. Willis did experience forearm tightness in June, which is often a precursor to or euphemism for elbow problems. Despite his performance and the proclamations that he's not available, a Mariners' scout watched him on Monday.

* One rumor that is picking up a lot of steam is that I will be joining MetsBlog Radio tonight at 6pm CST to talk rumors for a half hour.

I'd put Soriano in RF.

 

I'd do that without Dunn

 

I would too. It's a head scratcher why he's not in RF. A left field platoon of Floyd-Murton would be pretty productive and that defensive alignment would be our best. Soriano's defensive skill set certainly fits RF. I would also hope if somehow they did land Dunn they would make this move -- I definitely, definitely want Dunn, but he'd be a travesty in RF.

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

Ok...I've been away from the comp...

 

any possible truth to this one?