Do the Cubs have a chance?

[CubColtPacer]

I've been away for a week and was going to start a new thread, but I don't like to unless I see nothing that applies.

 

Anyway, these two series coming up to the ASB are about as must win as it gets for the Cubs. They are playing two pretty bad teams and must take at least 2 out three in each to be considered "for real". Anything less and it just a 25 cent peep show.

 

The Cubs have climbed out of a big hole. I hope they can stay out.

 

I would agree with that-although they are playing 7 games this week. They need to win 4 at the very minimum, and 5 definitely shouldn't be considered a stretch. The thing is though-these are the type of teams that the Cubs play most of the rest of the season. Other than the occasional series against a good team, most of the rest of the year is filled with series against the Pirates, Reds, Astros, Cardinals, Nationals and Giants. 55 of their last 82 games are against those 6 teams, and those are the teams they need to beat up on the rest of the year if they are thinking about the playoffs.

[CubinNY]

Every series is a big series for one reason or another. Obviously we'd like them to win these games, but we'd like them to win every game.

 

It's not about the fans, it's about the team.

 

Every series is big becuase they suked ass so bad for most of the first half. If they go into the ASB less than .500 we shouldn't expect much for the rest of the year.

[jersey cubs fan]

I've been away for a week and was going to start a new thread, but I don't like to unless I see nothing that applies.

 

Anyway, these two series coming up to the ASB are about as must win as it gets for the Cubs. They are playing two pretty bad teams and must take at least 2 out three in each to be considered "for real". Anything less and it just a 25 cent peep show.

 

The Cubs have climbed out of a big hole. I hope they can stay out.

 

I would agree with that-although they are playing 7 games this week. They need to win 4 at the very minimum, and 5 definitely shouldn't be considered a stretch. The thing is though-these are the type of teams that the Cubs play most of the rest of the season. Other than the occasional series against a good team, most of the rest of the year is filled with series against the Pirates, Reds, Astros, Cardinals, Nationals and Giants. 55 of their last 82 games are against those 6 teams, and those are the teams they need to beat up on the rest of the year if they are thinking about the playoffs.

 

7-0 would be amazing.

6-1 would be nothing to complain about.

5-2 would be a nice way to go into the 2nd half.

4-3 would be "okay" but would leave a sour taste after the recent run.

3-4 would be a huge disappointment.

2-5 or worse would be a disaster, likely moving to 9 or more games out of the division and losing valuable ground in the wild card hunt.

 

I'd lock into 5-2 right now if it was offered, but I think they have a legit shot at 6 wins this week.

[CubinNY]

Other than the occasional series against a good team, most of the rest of the year is filled with series against the Pirates, Reds, Astros, Cardinals, Nationals and Giants. 55 of their last 82 games are against those 6 teams, and those are the teams they need to beat up on the rest of the year if they are thinking about the playoffs.

Wow. I did not know that. Well, I guess that's good news. Now they have to beat up on these weak teams.

[Sarcastic]

Every series is a big series for one reason or another. Obviously we'd like them to win these games, but we'd like them to win every game.

 

It's not about the fans, it's about the team.

 

Every series is big becuase they suked ass so bad for most of the first half. If they go into the ASB less than .500 we shouldn't expect much for the rest of the year.

 

Their play for 7 games should not determine our predictions for them for the rest of the season, since there will still be 75 more games to be played. It will, since sports fans tend to have a what have you done lately mindset, but it shouldn't.

 

This stretch is no bigger than any other. They ought to win both series, but I fail to see how this series matters more than any others. It does matter, we can agree, but it won't determine the Cubs place in the final standings, just how some fans feel about them over the break.

[third eye]

While it is just 7 game stretch like any other, the team we are trying to chase will be playing the same weak teams. They are likely to get 4-6 wins out of these 7, so keeping pace or gaining ground if lucky is very important in this particular stretch heading into the break.

[jersey cubs fan]

Every series is a big series for one reason or another. Obviously we'd like them to win these games, but we'd like them to win every game.

 

It's not about the fans, it's about the team.

 

Every series is big becuase they suked ass so bad for most of the first half. If they go into the ASB less than .500 we shouldn't expect much for the rest of the year.

 

Their play for 7 games should not determine our predictions for them for the rest of the season, since there will still be 75 more games to be played. It will, since sports fans tend to have a what have you done lately mindset, but it shouldn't.

 

This stretch is no bigger than any other. They ought to win both series, but I fail to see how this series matters more than any others. It does matter, we can agree, but it won't determine the Cubs place in the final standings, just how some fans feel about them over the break.

 

It won't determine their placing, but it will go a long way towards doing exactly that. 6.5 games is already a pretty tough gap to close, a sub .500 record in these 7 games in which the Cubs should be favored every time would more than likely leave them at 8-10 games out of 1st. And the wild card is likely to move from 5 to 7 or 8 games away.

 

It's not that this 7 games is more important than any 7 others, but the fact is that a couple weeks ago it became clear the Cubs needed to right the ship before the all star break. They've begun to do that, but a step back here really hurts.

 

5-2 doesn't win the division and 3-4 doesn't lose it, but if they can't win 4 of these games it does tell us a lot about their chances. There's only 82 games to go, 75 after the break. If they go into the break at 43-44, it'll take a 42-33 record just to get to 85 wins, and that's not even guaranteed to sniff you the division or wild card. The goal at this point has to be closer to 90 wins, with the way things are going, as both the division and wild card leaders are on pace to beat that numbers.

 

They've got 55 games against bums and 27 against contenders in which to win 50 more games if they want to win 90. 36-19 (.655 W%) against the bums and 14-13 (.519 W%) gets them there, but that may not even be enough. A stretch of 7 against those bums in which they only win 3 would really hurt their chances.

[SouthSideRyan]

Other than the occasional series against a good team, most of the rest of the year is filled with series against the Pirates, Reds, Astros, Cardinals, Nationals and Giants. 55 of their last 82 games are against those 6 teams, and those are the teams they need to beat up on the rest of the year if they are thinking about the playoffs.

Wow. I did not know that. Well, I guess that's good news. Now they have to beat up on these weak teams.

 

The bad news is the story's pretty much the same for the Brewers.

[Rob]

From Baseball Prospectus' Playoff Odds Report, the Cubs have a 21.11332% chance to win the NL Central, and a 16.74729% chance to win the Wild Card, which leads to a agreggate playoff chance of 37.86060%

[weis21]

From Baseball Prospectus' Playoff Odds Report, the Cubs have a 21.11332% chance to win the NL Central, and a 16.74729% chance to win the Wild Card, which leads to a agreggate playoff chance of 37.86060%

 

I'll take it. 2 weeks ago you would have gotten laughed off this board if you would have said the cubs have a 37% chance at going to the playoffs. Hopefully in 2 more weeks 37% will be the percent to win just the division.

[Sammy Sofa]

From Baseball Prospectus' Playoff Odds Report, the Cubs have a 21.11332% chance to win the NL Central, and a 16.74729% chance to win the Wild Card, which leads to a agreggate playoff chance of 37.86060%

 

Never tell me the odds.

[Derwood]

the recent run has been great, but just makes April/May that much more frustrating

[inari]

the recent run has been great, but just makes April/May that much more frustrating

 

The sweep against the Marlins will haunt us forever.

[CubmanPi]

the recent run has been great, but just makes April/May that much more frustrating

 

The sweep against the Marlins will haunt us forever.

When I think of the Marlins taking 3 in a row and haunting us forever, this season is not what comes to mind.

 

The Cubs underachieving will be frustrating, but for 9 games, they've been overachieving, and all of a sudden we're enjoying being right in the middle of everything again.

 

All season long, we've been pointing at the fact that, based on expected w-l, the Cubs are among the top teams in baseball. I think they'll maintain their status in the XW-L category, and the frustrating start will come close to balancing itself out.

 

In the last nine games alone, the Cubs have won by a run on a 9th inning suicide squeeze, they blew a 5-run lead in the 9th and still won, and they spotted a very good team 5 runs in the first and still won. This same team three weeks earlier doesn't win any of those games.

 

Just enjoy watching the pendulum swing the other direction. It may be cliche', but if it doesn't all even out in the end, I think it will at least come close.

[jersey cubs fan]

All season long, we've been pointing at the fact that, based on expected w-l, the Cubs are among the top teams in baseball.

 

I'm not sure we can go that far. The ex W-L on espn.com has them as the 5th best team in the NL, still on the outside looking in to the playoffs. Expected W-L has said the Cubs are better than their record, but not really among the elite. There's another 7 AL teams with better ex w-l records.

[TruffleShuffle]

According to BP's raw playoff odds, the Cubs have a 24.8% shot at the division, and 18.6% chance at the WC (43.4% chance at the playoffs). The ELO-adjusted odds give the Cubs only a 23.4% chance at the playoffs, while the PECOTA-adjusted odds give a 45% chance. I'd give the Cubs a 1 in 3 shot at this point.

[TruffleShuffle]

Before today's game, the BP postseason odds report put the Cubs at 32.5% to win the division and 19.1% to win the wild card, for an overall 51.66% chance at the playoffs! The wild card chance has made a big jump the past few days, as the Cubs trail only the Dodgers/Padres. Average wins is now 88.6.

 

ELO-adjusted chance was 37.4%

 

PECOTA-adjusted chance is 53%

Edited July 20, 2007 by TruffleShuffle

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

We have a chance! We have a chance!

[Keener98]

We have a chance! We have a chance!

 

SHHHHHHHHHHHHH

[Outshined_One]

http://img176.imageshack.us/img176/2866/i20want20to20believe20sat0.jpg

[badger1679666666]

The truth is out there.

[kente777]

We have a chance! We have a chance!

 

We have no chance. I'm sorry I started this thread.

[RynoRules]

We have a chance! We have a chance!

 

I think we should all lighten up and enjoy the fact that we root for the hottest team in baseball, and, based on how they have won recently, there's no reason to think they can't keep it up.

[TruffleShuffle]

We have a chance! We have a chance!

 

based on how they have won recently, there's no reason to think they can't keep it up.

 

Sure there is... the Cubs just aren't that good. But they still might be good enough to win the division without playing better than every team in baseball.

[CyHawk_Cub]

I'm just happy to watch Cubs baseball w/out the typical accompanying feeling of nausea. Obviously we're not gonna keep winning at this clip; how the team reacts to yet another bad stretch will be interesting. The fact they overcame a bad start is what gives me hope. The team as currently constituted has obvious holes, so I am not confident in that.