Do the Cubs have a chance?

[USSoccer]

4 years

 

2004

2005

2006

2007

 

How is that omitting anything? ERA+ is a crappy stat no matter what, has nothing to do with this discussion, its bad in every discussion. The only time its even marginally useful is comparing pitchers from different era's.

 

I'm assuming you're either kidding, or your name is Joe Morgan.

[bukie]

4 years

 

2004

2005

2006

2007

 

How is that omitting anything? ERA+ is a crappy stat no matter what, has nothing to do with this discussion, its bad in every discussion. The only time its even marginally useful is comparing pitchers from different era's.

 

I call it a push, but if you look at those stats and say Zambrano is an advantage you are clearly wearing Cubs glasses.

 

Now take out 2007. What do you see?

 

Ok, don't take out 2007, but add 2003. What do you see?

 

What you have is an entirely convenient block of statistics that fit your argument if you ignore stats before 2004. Also, if 2007 is removed, the stats tip in Zambrano's favor just for 2004-2006 as well. Nobody here is arguing that Zambrano is having a good year, let alone better than Sheets. What people are saying is that coming into this year, there is no metric by which you could say Sheets is a better pitcher than Zambrano.

[jersey cubs fan]

4 years

 

2004

2005

2006

2007

 

How is that omitting anything? ERA+ is a crappy stat no matter what, has nothing to do with this discussion, its bad in every discussion. The only time its even marginally useful is comparing pitchers from different era's.

 

I call it a push, but if you look at those stats and say Zambrano is an advantage you are clearly wearing Cubs glasses.

 

If you want to talk 4 years, you have to include the 2nd half of 2003 at least. Not sure how the two compare, but it's quite stupid to say "four year" when one of them is halfway done and the last one you are ommitting shows a big advantage for the other guy.

 

Zambrano has been a better pitcher for all but April and May of 2007.

[JenksFan5]

My comments were only directed at a few unrealistic posters. I respect the majority of the opinions and agree that the Cubs have a chance to catch the Brewers in the division because they are the next most talented team or as talented on paper.

 

My comments about the Brewers having home grown talent was more a comment on how team chemistry is important. I watch a ton of Cubs games and almost every Brewer game and it just seems that the Brewers have a lot more fun playing together and I think it is a testament to the difference in team chemistry. Cubs have a lot of star power and they don't always seem to mesh. There is no stat or metric to measure this, but if you watch both teams play, it just seems that way to me.

 

I meant no disrespect with my post and I use this site everyday to become a more knowledgeable fan and appreciate the discussions. Here's to an enjoyable division race for the rest of the year.

 

I will try to keep my "dumb" and "stupid" posts to a minimum.

[Ender]

What you have is an entirely convenient block of statistics that fit your argument if you ignore stats before 2004

 

When looking at a player most people use their 3 year averages, all I did was add this season to that. Who cares what someone did 4+ years ago? 4 years ago Sosa was a 35+ HR hitter still. One year of good stats can be a fluke so easily you want to look at more than 1, two years can still be pretty flukey especially with a guy like say Peralta who had one good and one bad year. Three years gives you a decent size sample. You guys are really stretching things to try to make your argument.

 

I'm assuming you're either kidding, or your name is Joe Morgan

 

I'm sure Joe Morgan probably likes ERA+. ERA+ is just ERA modified with some half baked park factors and then modified compared to league averages. The park factor part of it is mostly useless because they simply are not detailed enough to be useful. The league average comparison is only really useful when you are comparing pitchers from different era's. Not really sure what the problem is here. It is not a stat you want to be using to compare pitchers of the same season, thats not what its useful for.

 

ERA as a stat takes more than a single season of data to be useful for anything as well, you don't want to just look at two pitchers ERA for a single season and proclaim the lowest the better, thats a horrible way to judge a pitcher

Edited June 27, 2007 by Ender

[UMFan83]

My comments were only directed at a few unrealistic posters. I respect the majority of the opinions and agree that the Cubs have a chance to catch the Brewers in the division because they are the next most talented team or as talented on paper.

 

My comments about the Brewers having home grown talent was more a comment on how team chemistry is important. I watch a ton of Cubs games and almost every Brewer game and it just seems that the Brewers have a lot more fun playing together and I think it is a testament to the difference in team chemistry. Cubs have a lot of star power and they don't always seem to mesh. There is no stat or metric to measure this, but if you watch both teams play, it just seems that way to me.

 

I meant no disrespect with my post and I use this site everyday to become a more knowledgeable fan and appreciate the discussions. Here's to an enjoyable division race for the rest of the year.

 

I will try to keep my "dumb" and "stupid" posts to a minimum.

 

Just because a team didn't 'grow up' through the farm system together doesn't mean that they have worse chemistry than the Brewers. Take for instance the fact that our popular DP combo of Theriot and Fontenot have played together in HS, college and now the majors. Lee and Ramirez, the corners of our IF are now playing their fourth full season together. Fontenot, Theriot, Pie, Hill, Marshall, Koyie Hill, Pagan, Wuertz and Marmol have all spent time in the minors together, does that mean they have good chemistry?

[BigbadB]

My comments were only directed at a few unrealistic posters. I respect the majority of the opinions and agree that the Cubs have a chance to catch the Brewers in the division because they are the next most talented team or as talented on paper.

 

My comments about the Brewers having home grown talent was more a comment on how team chemistry is important. I watch a ton of Cubs games and almost every Brewer game and it just seems that the Brewers have a lot more fun playing together and I think it is a testament to the difference in team chemistry. Cubs have a lot of star power and they don't always seem to mesh. There is no stat or metric to measure this, but if you watch both teams play, it just seems that way to me.

 

I meant no disrespect with my post and I use this site everyday to become a more knowledgeable fan and appreciate the discussions. Here's to an enjoyable division race for the rest of the year.

 

I will try to keep my "dumb" and "stupid" posts to a minimum.

 

Fair enough. But, I view things a bit differently in regards to team chemistry. Team chemistry is directly related to winning. The Brewers are winning games and the Cubs haven't been. When you are losing games nearly everday, fingers start getting pointed looking for excuses for why the team is losing. When a team is winning, everything seems to run much smoother and everyone is happy and not looking for excuses for why they are winning. Earlier in the year, I heard the rumblings of the Jenkins/Mench playing time. If Cordero was blowing save chances frequently, I'm sure there would be some Cordero/Turnbull heated discussions.

 

The Brewers model for growth is a good one. Develop your own talent and fill in where the weaknesses are. It's not a new model. It's a tried and true model. The Cubs haven't been successful at this. But, I am starting to see sort of an opposite model forming. The Cubs have recruited players to fill the weaknesses and are now filling in the holes with developed talent. Not talent to the Brewers level, but talent that can at least be decent role players.

 

The Brewers have the leg up on winning the division because of the current record. I think it would take an injury or two for them to lose it. But, the Cubs are in a position to continue this turnaround. It might be too late, but it could get exciting in the coming months.

 

Or, it might just be time to pack up the season. This series coming up is rather important. It might just dictate how the season plays out.

[jersey cubs fan]

My comments were only directed at a few unrealistic posters. I respect the majority of the opinions and agree that the Cubs have a chance to catch the Brewers in the division because they are the next most talented team or as talented on paper..

 

I love how everyone thinks that the Brewers will obviously regress yet the Cubs will magically bring it all together. It's madness.

 

Nice try.

[bukie]

What you have is an entirely convenient block of statistics that fit your argument if you ignore stats before 2004

 

When looking at a player most people use their 3 year averages, all I did was add this season to that. Who cares what someone did 4+ years ago? 4 years ago Sosa was a 35+ HR hitter still. One year of good stats can be a fluke so easily you want to look at more than 1, two years can still be pretty flukey especially with a guy like say Peralta who had one good and one bad year. Three years gives you a decent size sample. You guys are really stretching things to try to make your argument.

 

How are we stretching things to say Zambrano has been a better pitcher than Sheets outside of April and May of '07? Take any year, take any 3-year split, take the whole career, coming into this year, Zambrano was better than Sheets every year aside from '04 which could be called a wash.

 

Yes, we know, Zambrano had a lousy start to this year. Very lousy,, even so much as to push his "3.5 year splits" about even with Sheets.

[Chocolate Milk]

4 years.

 

Arbitrary.

[bukie]

At this point I'd be pretty disappointed in a 3-3 homestand.

[RonCey]

Cubs are now only 5.5 out of the wildcard. I'm just sayin.

[bukie]

Cubs are now only 5.5 out of the wildcard. I'm just sayin.

 

I am very confident in the Cubs ability to secure at least the wildcard if they continue to win at the same pace they have been over the last 6 days.

[XZero771679666304]

Cubs are now only 5.5 out of the wildcard. I'm just sayin.

 

I am very confident in the Cubs ability to secure at least the wildcard if they continue to win at the same pace they have been over the last 6 days.

 

If they continue to win at the pace they have over the past 6 days, they'll win 123 games.

[bc2k]

Cubs are now only 5.5 out of the wildcard. I'm just sayin.

 

That's the blue ferrari other teams see in their rear view mirror.

[CubmanPi]

With the Cubs and Brewers playing so hot right now, this weekend's series is about perfectly timed. Except for that whole Zambrano not starting part. It's going to do a lot to shape what the race will look like for the third quarter of the season, IMO.

[CubmanPi]

Cubs are now only 5.5 out of the wildcard. I'm just sayin.

 

I am very confident in the Cubs ability to secure at least the wildcard if they continue to win at the same pace they have been over the last 6 days.

 

If they continue to win at the pace they have over the past 6 days, they'll win 123 games.

That might even be enough to let Hendry off the hook.

[Ender]

 

How are we stretching things to say Zambrano has been a better pitcher than Sheets outside of April and May of '07? Take any year, take any 3-year split, take the whole career, coming into this year, Zambrano was better than Sheets every year aside from '04 which could be called a wash.

 

Yes, we know, Zambrano had a lousy start to this year. Very lousy,, even so much as to push his "3.5 year splits" about even with Sheets.

 

I'd take Sheets 2004 over Zambrano's for sure. I'd probably take his 2005 as well if it were a full season. Even if you take out just this year which seems to be what your problem is Sheets has been better over the past 3 years, better ERA(granted by .01), better K rate, better WHIP, the one big advantage to Zambrano is he's a ground ball pitcher.

 

I think the two are a push myself because the stats are pretty darn close. There is no way its an advantage Cubs for this season though which is what the original statement was.

[C.C.]

Cubs are now only 5.5 out of the wildcard. I'm just sayin.

 

I am very confident in the Cubs ability to secure at least the wildcard if they continue to win at the same pace they have been over the last 6 days.

 

If they continue to win at the pace they have over the past 6 days, they'll win 123 games.

 

Sounds about right.

[rawaction]

Cubs are now only 5.5 out of the wildcard. I'm just sayin.

 

I am very confident in the Cubs ability to secure at least the wildcard if they continue to win at the same pace they have been over the last 6 days.

 

If they continue to win at the pace they have over the past 6 days, they'll win 123 games.

 

They only play Milwaukee 6 times, though. So, they'll lose the division by a game.

 

Brewers have won 3 straight, 7 of 8, 14 of 17.

[XZero771679666304]

Cubs are now only 5.5 out of the wildcard. I'm just sayin.

 

That's the blue ferrari other teams see in their rear view mirror.

 

With a driver who can't drive stick.

 

If they can keep it in top gear, they'll be fine.

 

Drop into lower gears, and they'll stall it like usual.

[XZero771679666304]

All right, how about Z vs. Sheets in a fight? I'll bet on Z in the first round by technical dismemberment.

[Bruno7481]

Cubs are now only 5.5 out of the wildcard. I'm just sayin.

 

I still think the WC will be tougher to get than the division. With the WC you are chasing 4-5 teams at once. That is a lot harder then just catching one team.

[CubColtPacer]

I'm hoping that by the All-Star Break, the Cubs will be either 5.5 or 6.5 back in the division (after this Cubs-Brewers series, both teams play Pittsburgh and Washington for 7 games before the break). Hopefully the Cubs can beat up on the Pirates and Nationals though and that they will be in 3rd or 4th in the WC at that point around 4 games out. Both of these are realistic goals IMO, and they would set the Cubs up to make a run in the second half.

[Shilzzz]

a shame the cubs didn't capitalize when they had a chance a few weeks back...