Exactly a month until the draft. Who are we gonna take???

[Mephistopheles]

Cubs can do much better than Beau Mills at 3.

 

Cubs can do much better than Beau Mills, Josh Vitters, Jarrod Parker or Dudley Doolittle at 3, but unfortunately they won't. :x

 

 

they really cant do much better than parker or vitt at 3

 

Wieters..............

hes not "much" better

[TruffleShuffle]

We are going to have a dominant, middle-of-the-order college hitter who plays a premium defensive position fall into our lap and we are going to blow it.

 

Only the Cubs.

 

it makes me laugh how teams will balk spending a few million extra dollars in the draft, but then throw obscenely overpriced contracts at mediocre free agents.

[CubColtPacer]

We are going to have a dominant, middle-of-the-order college hitter who plays a premium defensive position fall into our lap and we are going to blow it.

 

Only the Cubs.

 

it makes me laugh how teams will balk spending a few million extra dollars in the draft, but then throw obscenely overpriced contracts at mediocre free agents.

 

A lot of that is PR-signing free agents, even mediocre ones, can sell tickets.

[RynoRules]

I just saw keith law's mock on ESPN - he has us taking Vitters. Can someone help me understand what makes Wieters so much better? I ask b/c I know little about both.

[TruffleShuffle]

We are going to have a dominant, middle-of-the-order college hitter who plays a premium defensive position fall into our lap and we are going to blow it.

 

Only the Cubs.

 

it makes me laugh how teams will balk spending a few million extra dollars in the draft, but then throw obscenely overpriced contracts at mediocre free agents.

 

A lot of that is PR-signing free agents, even mediocre ones, can sell tickets.

 

that must be why wrigley is selling out this year... jason marquis!

[CoolHandLuke]

I just saw keith law's mock on ESPN - he has us taking Vitters. Can someone help me understand what makes Wieters so much better? I ask b/c I know little about both.

 

Some people hate high schoolers for no good reason except that Ryan Harvey and Luis Montanez sucked.

 

Also, position scarcity. I want Wieters, but I wouldn't be too upset with Vitters. Although as far as high school hitters go, I think I would prefer Moustakas or Heyward.

Edited June 7, 2007 by CoolHandLuke

[TruffleShuffle]

Some people hate high schoolers for no good reason except that Ryan Harvey and Luis Montanez sucked.

 

The Cubs have had a very poor track record when it comes to drafting high school hitters... but more importantly, the Cubs have a need at catcher, and also have a need for high-OBP players. Wieters is a polished college bat who fills both those needs. That's the bigger reason why I'd hate drafting Vitters or Moustakas.

[Mephistopheles]

the cubs dont have a track record of developing college hitters either

[TruffleShuffle]

the cubs dont have a track record of developing college hitters either

 

good point... have the Cubs spent many high draft picks on college hitters though? I think a lot more have been on high school bats.

[CoolHandLuke]

Some people hate high schoolers for no good reason except that Ryan Harvey and Luis Montanez sucked.

 

The Cubs have had a very poor track record when it comes to drafting high school hitters... but more importantly, the Cubs have a need at catcher, and also have a need for high-OBP players. Wieters is a polished college bat who fills both those needs. That's the bigger reason why I'd hate drafting Vitters or Moustakas.

 

Oh I agree, I want Wieters, I am just not as negative on high schoolers as you are. High school hitters do sometimes pan out too, and I do like the fact that Wilken is doing the picking. If he wants Vitters, then I am going to give him the benefit of the doubt to the point where I will wait a couple years to see how he turns out.

[Rob]

the cubs dont have a track record of developing college hitters either

 

Honestly, I think we could plug Wieters straight in as our backup catcher and he'd outperform Blanco. He's the one prospect outside of Price in this draft that I feel is about as close to no risk (read: exposing to the Cubs farm system) as they come. (No Casey Weathers talk... that would be a bigger overdraft at number 3 than Matt Bush was)

[Mephistopheles]

the cubs dont have a track record of developing college hitters either

 

good point... have the Cubs spent many high draft picks on college hitters though? I think a lot more have been on high school bats.

how many teams do? most early college picks are always pitchers. the good bat talents sign as high schoolers.

[Rob]

Some people hate high schoolers for no good reason except that Ryan Harvey and Luis Montanez sucked.

 

The Cubs have had a very poor track record when it comes to drafting high school hitters... but more importantly, the Cubs have a need at catcher, and also have a need for high-OBP players. Wieters is a polished college bat who fills both those needs. That's the bigger reason why I'd hate drafting Vitters or Moustakas.

 

Oh I agree, I want Wieters, I am just not as negative on high schoolers as you are. High school hitters do sometimes pan out too, and I do like the fact that Wilken is doing the picking. If he wants Vitters, then I am going to give him the benefit of the doubt to the point where I will wait a couple years to see how he turns out.

 

If memory serves, the last study I read said that high school hitters, college pitchers, and college hitters all enjoyed about the same average value over the course of the time the team controlled them. High school pitchers were much worse off, and flamed out at a much higher rate.

 

That, in a nutshell, is why I don't want Parker, or Porcello, or Bumgarner, or Aumont, or Smoker, or Harvey, or Beavan... unless of course one of them slips to us with our supplemental pick (not bloody likely)

[CubColtPacer]

the cubs dont have a track record of developing college hitters either

 

good point... have the Cubs spent many high draft picks on college hitters though? I think a lot more have been on high school bats.

 

More real high picks have been high schoolers, but college position players have been drafted high as well

 

Top 10 round position players since 96

 

1996

2nd round-Quincy Carter-HS

5th round-Chad Myers-college

6th round-Doug Hall-college

9th round-Nate Manning-college

 

97

5th round-Jaisen Randolph-HS

6th-Matt Mauck-HS

8th-Ron Walker-college

9th-Gary Johnson-college

10th-Mike Amrhien-college

 

98

1st-Corey Patterson-HS

2nd-Dave Kelton-HS

2nd-Jeff Goldbach-HS

3rd-Robert Bass-HS

6th-Tony Shrager-college

10th-Nate Frese-college

 

99

2nd round-Mike Mallory-HS

3rd-Ryan Gripp-college

7th-Mike Dzurilla-college

9th-Chris Curry-college

10th-Jim Deschaine-college

 

00

1st-Luis Montanez-HS

2nd-Bobby Hill-HS

3rd-Nic Jackson-college

5th-Gary Banks-HS

7th-Ryan Jorgenson-college

10th-Blake Blesi-college

 

2001

3rd-Ryan Theriot-college

5th-Brendan Harris-college

8th-Warren Hanna-college

10th-Corey Slavick-college

 

2002

2nd-Brian Dopirak-HS

3rd-Matt Craig-college

4th-Alan Rick-HS

6th-Chris Walker-college

7th-Joey Mohahan-college

8th-Jason Fransz-college

9th-Adam Greenberg-college

10th-Keith Butler-college

 

03

1st-Ryan Harvey-HS

3rd-Jake Fox-college

4th-Tony Richie-college

7th-Kyle Boyer-college

9th-Drew Larson-college

10th-Casey McGehee-college

 

The Cubs have been terrible at developing any type of hitter-both HS and college. There have been more HS hitters taken in the first 5 rounds, and more college hitters taken overall in the top 10 rounds. They simply haven't done a good job of either.

[TruffleShuffle]

the cubs dont have a track record of developing college hitters either

 

good point... have the Cubs spent many high draft picks on college hitters though? I think a lot more have been on high school bats.

 

More real high picks have been high schoolers, but college position players have been drafted high as well

 

Top 10 round position players since 96

 

1996

2nd round-Quincy Carter-HS

5th round-Chad Myers-college

6th round-Doug Hall-college

9th round-Nate Manning-college

 

97

5th round-Jaisen Randolph-HS

6th-Matt Mauck-HS

8th-Ron Walker-college

9th-Gary Johnson-college

10th-Mike Amrhien-college

 

98

1st-Corey Patterson-HS

2nd-Dave Kelton-HS

2nd-Jeff Goldbach-HS

3rd-Robert Bass-HS

6th-Tony Shrager-college

10th-Nate Frese-college

 

99

2nd round-Mike Mallory-HS

3rd-Ryan Gripp-college

7th-Mike Dzurilla-college

9th-Chris Curry-college

10th-Jim Deschaine-college

 

00

1st-Luis Montanez-HS

2nd-Bobby Hill-HS

3rd-Nic Jackson-college

5th-Gary Banks-HS

7th-Ryan Jorgenson-college

10th-Blake Blesi-college

 

2001

3rd-Ryan Theriot-college

5th-Brendan Harris-college

8th-Warren Hanna-college

10th-Corey Slavick-college

 

2002

2nd-Brian Dopirak-HS

3rd-Matt Craig-college

4th-Alan Rick-HS

6th-Chris Walker-college

7th-Joey Mohahan-college

8th-Jason Fransz-college

9th-Adam Greenberg-college

10th-Keith Butler-college

 

03

1st-Ryan Harvey-HS

3rd-Jake Fox-college

4th-Tony Richie-college

7th-Kyle Boyer-college

9th-Drew Larson-college

10th-Casey McGehee-college

 

The Cubs have been terrible at developing any type of hitter-both HS and college. There have been more HS hitters taken in the first 5 rounds, and more college hitters taken overall in the top 10 rounds. They simply haven't done a good job of either.

 

Right, but 1st/2nd round picks are far more likely to develop than later round picks. Looking at those:

 

2nd round - Quincy Carter - made the big leagues (in the NFL)

1st round (3rd overall) - Corey Patterson - we all know how this turned out

2nd round - David Kelton (bum)

2nd round - Jeff Goldbach (bum)

2nd round - Mike Mallory (bum)

1st round (3rd overall) - Luis Montanez (bum)

2nd round - Brian Dopirak - well on his way to becoming a bum

1st round - Ryan Harvey - see Dopirak

 

College:

2nd round - Bobby Hill - AAAA player

 

 

so it's not fair to compare the success of the lower-drafted college players to the more highly-rated high school players. Plus, look at the guys who have actually made it to the big club the past couple of years. Murton (Red Sox college draftee) and Theriot made the big leagues, and Brendan Harris is having a solid year so far for the D-Rays. Eric Patterson is working his way up the ladder, and Jake Fox has become a good offensive prospect. Meanwhile, just about every high school player on your list was a complete non-factor at the big league level, save Corey Patterson.

[TruffleShuffle]

the cubs dont have a track record of developing college hitters either

 

good point... have the Cubs spent many high draft picks on college hitters though? I think a lot more have been on high school bats.

how many teams do? most early college picks are always pitchers. the good bat talents sign as high schoolers.

 

that would certainly explain why two years ago, five of the top seven picks and 10 of the top 30 were college bats.

[Mephistopheles]

and last year there were two taken in the first round. the year before the one you mentioned there were four taken in the first round. it obviously depends on the year but in general most of the top bats dont go to college. In general most of the top arms do not, but there are always a lot of projectable arms that do go to college and evolve into elite guys, like Price.

 

this year there will probably be 3 or 4 of them.

[TruffleShuffle]

and last year there were two taken in the first round.

 

If by two you mean four, then you're correct.

[UK1679666180]

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/draft/features/264204.html

[Outshined_One]

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/draft/features/264204.html

 

3. Cubs. Chicago would have taken Vitters had Kansas City passed, but there's no shame in taking Indiana prep righthander Jarrod Parker, who showed electric stuff all spring. A rumor that the Cubs would overdraft Virginia first baseman/lefthander Sean Doolittle circulated in the final days before the draft, but he's a target at No. 48, not at No. 3.

 

Projected Pick: Jarrod Parker, rhp, Norwell (Ind.) HS.

 

I can live with that.

[Guest]

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/draft/features/264204.html

 

Did it really only come up an hour ago? Meh, should have gone to sleep earlier. When will I learn?

[Guest]

Surprises of Callis' mock draft: Mesoraco at 7, Schmidt at 9 (!), Wieters at (Lincecum, then Wieters? wow, that's back-to-back first round steals for the Giants), Weathers at 11, Porcello at 24.

 

Callis was wrong with the Cubs pick the last two years (who was right last year?).

[JonnyRed]

I don't understand the concern of possibly spending a few extra millions to draft and sign the player we need, whether it's Price, Wieters (my hope) or Vitters? The Cubs are likely to fetch $800+M from a new owner, and whoever is brought in will not be looking to run a low-budget team. Anyone else feel this way?

[NCCubFan]

I don't understand the concern of possibly spending a few extra millions to draft and sign the player we need, whether it's Price, Wieters (my hope) or Vitters? The Cubs are likely to fetch $800+M from a new owner, and whoever is brought in will not be looking to run a low-budget team. Anyone else feel this way?

Yes.

[YearofDaCubs]

I really don't know how good Parker is but he sounds like a risky pick to me coming out of HS at #3. I would love for us to end up with Price, Wieters, or Vitters.