Who bats second?

[David]

I sure hope Jones doesn't get the most AB's. I'm still holding out hope that he'll sit the vast majority of the time against lefties. The recent quotes from Piniella about being open to platoons and about working out/using Theriot and DeRosa in the OF provide reason for a little optimism, IMO.

 

Even if Jones sits 80% of the time against left-handers (which I fully support and hopefully it's even more than that) he likely will still have the most-at bats because he has an advantage on the other two outfielders with starting against right-handers (Murton because he is right-handed, and Floyd because Floyd would be terrible defensively in RF). Even with Jones getting the most at-bats though, if they are sitting him against left-handers the Cubs outfield will be incredibly productive.

 

I don't expect Jones to come close to the numbers he posted last year, except OBP.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/graphs.aspx?playerid=735&position=OF&page=0&type=full

 

Fangraphs also has an article on Big Z (not optimistic).

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/

 

If Jones sits against the vast majority of lefties, his numbers will probably exceed last year's.

[CubinNY]

I sure hope Jones doesn't get the most AB's. I'm still holding out hope that he'll sit the vast majority of the time against lefties. The recent quotes from Piniella about being open to platoons and about working out/using Theriot and DeRosa in the OF provide reason for a little optimism, IMO.

 

Even if Jones sits 80% of the time against left-handers (which I fully support and hopefully it's even more than that) he likely will still have the most-at bats because he has an advantage on the other two outfielders with starting against right-handers (Murton because he is right-handed, and Floyd because Floyd would be terrible defensively in RF). Even with Jones getting the most at-bats though, if they are sitting him against left-handers the Cubs outfield will be incredibly productive.

 

I don't expect Jones to come close to the numbers he posted last year, except OBP.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/graphs.aspx?playerid=735&position=OF&page=0&type=full

 

Fangraphs also has an article on Big Z (not optimistic).

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/

 

If Jones sits against the vast majority of lefties, his numbers will probably exceed last year's.

 

Or not. It is a faulty assumption born by the ascendence of roto leagues. You can't just look at the numbers and take the ABs away.

 

I'm as much a stat head as anybody, but real life does not work that way.

Edited February 19, 2007 by CubinNY

[David]

The graph you linked to just shows BA. If you look at his OBP and SLG numbers, he has always been significantly more productive against righties, and I don't think it's much of a stretch to say that in terms of OPS, if he only plays against righties, he could meet and exceed last year's overall production fairly easily.

[CubinNY]

The graph you linked to just shows BA. If you look at his OBP and SLG numbers, he has always been significantly more productive against righties, and I don't think it's much of a stretch to say that in terms of OPS, if he only plays against righties, he could meet and exceed last year's overall production fairly easily.

 

See my post above. I was changing it as you typed. Sorry.

 

That written, I'd expect his numbers to be a little better if he only faced RHP. However, I don't think they'd be significantly better.

[hardcorecubfan]

Piniella said Sunday he's considering using Jones in the No. 2 slot, which would mean the lineup could begin with Soriano, followed by Jones, Lee, Ramirez and Floyd. That's a power-hitting quintet that compares favorably with some of the best American League lineups, even without a designated hitter.

 

The slow, deliberate process of benching Matt Murton has officially begun.

 

 

Don't worry; when Floyd pulls up lame in mid-April Lou will be forced to play Matty.

 

what scares me is that you might be right.

 

I am still trying to figure out leadoff, that position can't be solidified either.

[imb]

Piniella said Sunday he's considering using Jones in the No. 2 slot, which would mean the lineup could begin with Soriano, followed by Jones, Lee, Ramirez and Floyd. That's a power-hitting quintet that compares favorably with some of the best American League lineups, even without a designated hitter.

 

The slow, deliberate process of benching Matt Murton has officially begun.

 

 

Don't worry; when Floyd pulls up lame in mid-April Lou will be forced to play Matty.

 

what scares me is that you might be right.

 

I am still trying to figure out leadoff, that position can't be solidified either.

 

Leadoff isnt a position, and they've already said a million times that Soriano is the leadoff guy, for better or worse.

[CubColtPacer]

I sure hope Jones doesn't get the most AB's. I'm still holding out hope that he'll sit the vast majority of the time against lefties. The recent quotes from Piniella about being open to platoons and about working out/using Theriot and DeRosa in the OF provide reason for a little optimism, IMO.

 

Even if Jones sits 80% of the time against left-handers (which I fully support and hopefully it's even more than that) he likely will still have the most-at bats because he has an advantage on the other two outfielders with starting against right-handers (Murton because he is right-handed, and Floyd because Floyd would be terrible defensively in RF). Even with Jones getting the most at-bats though, if they are sitting him against left-handers the Cubs outfield will be incredibly productive.

 

I don't expect Jones to come close to the numbers he posted last year, except OBP.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/graphs.aspx?playerid=735&position=OF&page=0&type=full

 

Fangraphs also has an article on Big Z (not optimistic).

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/

 

True, but this could also have something to do with it:

OPS

2002-Home-.721

Away-.977

2003-Home-.822

Away-.770

2004-Home-.694

Away-.784

2005-Home-.722

Away-.793

Home-.841

Away-.821

 

In the past 5 years, Jone has never had less than a .770 OPS away from his home park. Considering that most people are better at home than away from home, he would seem to be a guaranteed .800 every year, but that didn't happen in Minnesota because except for 2003, he was absolutely miserable at home. When he changed to Wrigley Field, his home numbers went up, and so did his total OPS.

 

I do expect him to be a little lower overall if he had the same type of at-bats (20-30 points of OPS), but the drop should be offset by a few less at-bats against left-handers, so I would expect his OPS to be around the same as last year.

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

For the most part, spring stats are meaningless. I think there are times when it is necessary to look at what a player does in the spring, but basing line-up and roster decisions on spring training is not a good idea.

 

The Cubs should have a good idea of what Murton can do. His spring AB's should be nearly meaningless.

 

For Floyd, his spring AB should be used simply to judge whether injuries have taken their toll and whether he can still hit as he did prior to last season. Any decisions involving Floyd or Murton should be based on what they have done in recent seasons and not this spring.

 

A few things ST can be good for:

1. Deciding a spot between two relatively similar players.

 

2. Judging whether a player has recovered from injury: see Prior/Miller

 

3. Deciding whether a player can handle a new position: see Soriano, Theriot, Jones.

 

Deciding the better hitter between Floyd and Murton should have already occurred. Spring performance shouldn't matter in the least.

[CuseCubFan69]

For the most part, spring stats are meaningless. I think there are times when it is necessary to look at what a player does in the spring, but basing line-up and roster decisions on spring training is not a good idea.

 

The Cubs should have a good idea of what Murton can do. His spring AB's should be nearly meaningless.

 

For Floyd, his spring AB should be used simply to judge whether injuries have taken their toll and whether he can still hit as he did prior to last season. Any decisions involving Floyd or Murton should be based on what they have done in recent seasons and not this spring.

 

A few things ST can be good for:

1. Deciding a spot between two relatively similar players.

 

2. Judging whether a player has recovered from injury: see Prior/Miller

 

3. Deciding whether a player can handle a new position: see Soriano, Theriot, Jones.

 

Deciding the better hitter between Floyd and Murton should have already occurred. Spring performance shouldn't matter in the least.

 

I agree and add to see if a veteran that is making a comeback still has the skill to compete at the MLB level.

[Pushfrog98]

Are you against using limited spring training at-bats as a deciding factor only when it goes against what you want?

 

 

 

Murton has proven he is a major league caliber player. He doesn't need spring training to prove anything. As far as playing time, it's up to Lou Piniella to find plenty of playing time for all 4 outfielders, and the ones who are playing the best deserve the most playing time.

 

I think however much he's overstated his point that this is his point as well. If Floyd is playing better than Murton at the end of ST, then it's not a problem if he gets the majority of starts at the beginning of the season. Murton should still get plenty of time in any scenario, and if he then started out-performing Floyd (assuming the prior scenario) than Murton would start getting the majority of time. No matter who starts when though, all 3 corner outfielders should get plenty of at-bats.

 

Thank you, that is basically what I'm saying (along with being a devil's advocate). A lot of people have pretty much said that if floyd gets any playing time, they'll be pissed... without thinking, "Hey, what if Floyd IS in fact healthy and playing well?!" I surely hope Murton plays up to his abilities. I think he's a great guy and he seems like the kind of guy that gives "110%" day in and day out. But if Cliff Floyd is playing balls out and getting the job done, he too should get some playing time.

 

All in all, I think this will be a great year. I get all "butterflies in my stomach" when I think about it.

[Abe Frohman]

 

This is ridiculous.

 

Rocket's point is completely valid. You don't base your roster decisions on 50 AB's in AZ and ignore the much larger career sample size.

 

Matt Murton has 595 career AB's. He'll get less than 75 in AZ. Which is going to be the better indicator of his ability? If he hits .180 in AZ and Floyd hits 1.000, do you really think that's any indicator of what's going to happen over the course of a season?

 

You can crack on people for having their "mancrushes" or favorites or whatever you want to call it. The idea that ST should somehow mean more than a career's worth of sample sizes, or looking at splits and usage patterns is laughably stupid.

 

Mark Bellhorn?

[UK1679666180]

Spring Training is working on things (new stance/diff. bat path etc.) and getting your timing back moreso than determining job status. I hope that Perry and Piniella would be able to see if Floyd's bat and body have slowed down to the point where he doesn't become the best choice that they will use Murton. I have to wait and see how Floyd is hitting the ball, anything like the past two years and that choice is obvious.

 

As far as Bellhorn in '02, Delino was the starter at the start of the season and lost his job to Bellhorn who was brought in as a 25th guy, if you look at Delino's stats in '02, it's pretty obvious why someone even like Baylor would bench him.

[CubinNY]

Spring Training is working on things (new stance/diff. bat path etc.) and getting your timing back moreso than determining job status. I hope that Perry and Piniella would be able to see if Floyd's bat and body have slowed down to the point where he doesn't become the best choice that they will use Murton. I have to wait and see how Floyd is hitting the ball, anything like the past two years and that choice is obvious.

 

As far as Bellhorn in '02, Delino was the starter at the start of the season and lost his job to Bellhorn who was brought in as a 25th guy, if you look at Delino's stats in '02, it's pretty obvious why someone even like Baylor would bench him.

I've definately been jaded by Baker but at this point I'm willing to give Lou the benefit of the doubt. However, I'm real worried abou the Murton/Floyd splits.

 

Floyd is a very streaky hitter. I worry that he starts the season out strong and then hangs on to his job b/c of the hot start. But like I wrote, I've been jaded by Baker.

[BigbadB]

Mark Bellhorn?

 

Who? Oh, you mean the best lead off hitter the Cubs have had in the 21st century.

[Danny82]

Spring Training is working on things (new stance/diff. bat path etc.) and getting your timing back moreso than determining job status. I hope that Perry and Piniella would be able to see if Floyd's bat and body have slowed down to the point where he doesn't become the best choice that they will use Murton. I have to wait and see how Floyd is hitting the ball, anything like the past two years and that choice is obvious.

 

What is wrong with how Floyd performed two years ago?

[BigbadB]

Spring Training is working on things (new stance/diff. bat path etc.) and getting your timing back moreso than determining job status. I hope that Perry and Piniella would be able to see if Floyd's bat and body have slowed down to the point where he doesn't become the best choice that they will use Murton. I have to wait and see how Floyd is hitting the ball, anything like the past two years and that choice is obvious.

 

What is wrong with how Floyd performed two years ago?

 

Nothing, if you don't mind how Sosa performed 2 years ago. :wink:

[Rob]

FWIW BP's depth charts predict Murton getting 40% of the PA from LF and 15% from RF for 401 PA... Floyd 373 PA... and Jones 484 PA.

 

Doesn't seem too far from being logical...

 

That seems about right to me. Murton should get every at-bat against left-handed starters. That should be somewhere around 200 PA right there. If he gets even 1/3 of the starts aginst right-handed starters, then that would put him at 350, and pinch-hitting and double switches could probably push him up to 400. Jones ends up getting the most at-bats because he is the only one reliable enough to play RF right now (I hope that Murton gets out there and gets acclimated quickly to RF so Murton and Floyd can play against some lefties, I don't want to see Floyd in RF at all), and Floyd takes the rest of the right handed at-bats from Murton and a few of the left-handed bats from Jones.

 

I know many of you hate this practice, but history against certain pitchers might dictate some of the matchups. I don't mind it in a situation like this when the players are likely to be similarly productive anyway (although in different ways)-it's bad when you start Blanco over Barrett because of it, but I think it can be helpful in deciding between similar players for that day. I can also see Lou changing his lineup based on which way the wind is blowing at Wrigley.

 

Forgot to factor in their PH predictions... that's another 93 PA for Murton, which would give him more overall PA than Floyd or Jones (they didn't predict PH for either of them...)

[David]

Spring Training is working on things (new stance/diff. bat path etc.) and getting your timing back moreso than determining job status. I hope that Perry and Piniella would be able to see if Floyd's bat and body have slowed down to the point where he doesn't become the best choice that they will use Murton. I have to wait and see how Floyd is hitting the ball, anything like the past two years and that choice is obvious.

 

What is wrong with how Floyd performed two years ago?

 

Nothing, if you don't mind how Sosa performed 2 years ago. :wink:

 

I'm assuming you mean 3 years ago?

[UK1679666180]

Spring Training is working on things (new stance/diff. bat path etc.) and getting your timing back moreso than determining job status. I hope that Perry and Piniella would be able to see if Floyd's bat and body have slowed down to the point where he doesn't become the best choice that they will use Murton. I have to wait and see how Floyd is hitting the ball, anything like the past two years and that choice is obvious.

 

What is wrong with how Floyd performed two years ago?

 

Eh, I meant last year, I have no idea why I wrote two years.

[Lefty]

I think we may be surprised by the Soriano->Jacque->DLee combo. Nice Righty, Lefty, Righty mixup. Jacque will see a lot of dejected pitchers that just let Soriano beat them. Great protection behind him guarantee's good pitches.

 

I want to see how it looks in the spring.

 

Every study, including one in the WSJ last week, show that lineup protection is a myth.

 

Our challenge at #2 is interesting. With Soriano's power, his percentage of time on first base is very low. Jones and Murton are extreme groundball hitters which is normally a problem with DPs at #2. But Jones' strikeouts would make DPs even less likely. So as long as he doesn't face LHPs, Jones at #2 sounds OK. And sandwiched between Soriano and Lee might protect him from LHPs later in a game.

 

Do you realize you just wrote that lineup protection was a myth and then said Soriano and Lee might protect Jones from LHP's? :D

 

I don't have a sense of humor, so if you were serious, let me clarify. Late in the game an opposing manager might not bring in a lefty to face Jones if it means bringing in an inferior righty to face Lee and Ramirez. Therefore, Jones is protected from facing a lefty.

 

The protection that is a myth is that a batter will see different pitches and will produce different results depending on who bats behind him.

[Illini Iceman]

Good news

 

Get your scorecard: Piniella's lineup for Thursday's Cactus League opener will feature Alfonso Soriano in center and leading off, followed by Matt Murton in left, Lee at first, Aramis Ramirez at third, Michael Barrett catching, Jacque Jones in right, Mark DeRosa at second, Cesar Izturis at short and Jason Marquis pitching.

 

Murton had limited at-bats in the No. 2 spot last season, and was 4-for-13. He hit fifth, sixth and seventh most of the time.

 

"He's a patient hitter," Piniella said of the 25-year-old outfielder. "He hits the ball well to right-center field. He saw more pitches at bat than any other Cub last year. We've got pretty good speed in the leadoff spot.

 

and not so good...

 

I told [izturis] we'll put him in the two-hole from time to time, too. We'll mix and match these lineups a little bit and we'll settle on something."

 

Murton was excited about batting second.

 

"You have to be smart about what you're doing in the second hole and make sure, if Alfonso is stealing, you don't take away a stolen base," Murton said. "I feel comfortable doing it. You have to be able to hit behind the runners. Hitting second, hopefully, you'll get more pitches to see. Alfonso is a stolen-base threat, and you'll see more fastballs. At this point in time in my career, fastballs are my best pitch.

 

"It's also the first game of Spring Training, and not a big deal," Murton said. "But I think the two-hole is an interesting spot this year."

 

http://chicago.cubs.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20070228&content_id=1820356&vkey=spt2007news&fext=.jsp&c_id=chc

[Keener98]

Good news

 

Get your scorecard: Piniella's lineup for Thursday's Cactus League opener will feature Alfonso Soriano in center and leading off, followed by Matt Murton in left, Lee at first, Aramis Ramirez at third, Michael Barrett catching, Jacque Jones in right, Mark DeRosa at second, Cesar Izturis at short and Jason Marquis pitching.

 

Murton had limited at-bats in the No. 2 spot last season, and was 4-for-13. He hit fifth, sixth and seventh most of the time.

 

"He's a patient hitter," Piniella said of the 25-year-old outfielder. "He hits the ball well to right-center field. He saw more pitches at bat than any other Cub last year. We've got pretty good speed in the leadoff spot.

 

and not so good...

 

I told [izturis] we'll put him in the two-hole from time to time, too. We'll mix and match these lineups a little bit and we'll settle on something."

 

Murton was excited about batting second.

 

"You have to be smart about what you're doing in the second hole and make sure, if Alfonso is stealing, you don't take away a stolen base," Murton said. "I feel comfortable doing it. You have to be able to hit behind the runners. Hitting second, hopefully, you'll get more pitches to see. Alfonso is a stolen-base threat, and you'll see more fastballs. At this point in time in my career, fastballs are my best pitch.

 

"It's also the first game of Spring Training, and not a big deal," Murton said. "But I think the two-hole is an interesting spot this year."

 

http://chicago.cubs.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20070228&content_id=1820356&vkey=spt2007news&fext=.jsp&c_id=chc

 

I love the fact that Piniella knows that Murton seen the most pitches per plate app. on the Cubs last year. Dusty would have no clue and not give 2 craps about that. Im liking Lou more and more.

[Wheelimus]

Ah, but see, Cesar is attending Matt's "how to see more pitches" seminar. It might work out. :lol:

 

Obviosuly, prefer to see Matt in the 2 hole. If he isn't in the game, it'll come down to either DeRosa or Jacque. :?

[Abe Frohman]

Mark Bellhorn?

 

Who? Oh, you mean the best lead off hitter the Cubs have had in the 21st century.

 

Well, I just remember Bellhorn ripping it up in Spring Training before the 2002 season, and ended up having a very nice season for the Cubs.