NFL Playoffs Outlook Discussion

[Flames24Rulz]

Actually, I should revise that about the Rams. If three or more teams tie at 8-8 in the NFC (hopefully if the case were us, Atlanta, and St. Louis), we'd have the tiebreaker on all of them based on conference record. So as long as we beat the Bears, the Giants lose out, and the Falcons lose just one of their last two, we'll be in. Still a long shot, but if the Saints beat the Giants this weekend, we'll definitely be alive for week 17.

OK, you can come back from la-la land any time now. :D

 

If we faced the first stringers, we would have NO chance at all. I think the first game of the season indicated that. I think we definitely have improved since then, but we'd probably still lose by 2 TD's. But if the Bears are smart, they would more than likely rest most of their starters by the 2nd quarter and all of their starters by the start of the 2nd half.

 

I don't think it's THAT much of a stretch :wink:

[NCCubFan]

Actually, I should revise that about the Rams. If three or more teams tie at 8-8 in the NFC (hopefully if the case were us, Atlanta, and St. Louis), we'd have the tiebreaker on all of them based on conference record. So as long as we beat the Bears, the Giants lose out, and the Falcons lose just one of their last two, we'll be in. Still a long shot, but if the Saints beat the Giants this weekend, we'll definitely be alive for week 17.

OK, you can come back from la-la land any time now. :D

 

If we faced the first stringers, we would have NO chance at all. I think the first game of the season indicated that. I think we definitely have improved since then, but we'd probably still lose by 2 TD's. But if the Bears are smart, they would more than likely rest most of their starters by the 2nd quarter and all of their starters by the start of the 2nd half.

 

I don't think it's THAT much of a stretch :wink:

Point conceded. The Packers' starters may have a fighting chance against the Bears' reserves.

[CubColtPacer]

Actually, I should revise that about the Rams. If three or more teams tie at 8-8 in the NFC (hopefully if the case were us, Atlanta, and St. Louis), we'd have the tiebreaker on all of them based on conference record. So as long as we beat the Bears, the Giants lose out, and the Falcons lose just one of their last two, we'll be in. Still a long shot, but if the Saints beat the Giants this weekend, we'll definitely be alive for week 17.

OK, you can come back from la-la land any time now. :D

 

If we faced the first stringers, we would have NO chance at all. I think the first game of the season indicated that. I think we definitely have improved since then, but we'd probably still lose by 2 TD's. But if the Bears are smart, they would more than likely rest most of their starters by the 2nd quarter and all of their starters by the start of the 2nd half.

 

I don't think it's THAT much of a stretch :wink:

 

Nah-you don't have a chance, because Brian Griese could lead a team of schoochildren and beat anybody-he's that good :D

[USSoccer]

Can anyone help me with playoff game scheduling? Does it depend on which WC team wins? I'm trying to figure out which day the divisional game for the Bears is going to fall on.

[CubColtPacer]

Can anyone help me with playoff game scheduling? Does it depend on which WC team wins? I'm trying to figure out which day the divisional game for the Bears is going to fall on.

 

Usually the scheduling is based off of what teams are the most marketable. That's why the Patriots have always played in the Saturday night game the last 5 years (which of course gives them the biggest HFA then also, being the latest time for the game and therefore the coldest). I thought it might also be based off of which WC teams get in, but last year the Colts game was already scheduled before Pittsburgh advanced.

 

I have not found yet which games are scheduled for which time (does the NFC get the Saturday afternoon or Saturday night slot, for example?)-so I can't tell you for sure which one it will be. I'm fairly sure that they won't give the Bears the Saturday night slot-if it goes to the NFC, the network may jump for whoever else gets the bye (Saints or Cowboys) especially if they end up playing the other one-it's simply too big of a media story.

 

Oh-one other thing. The Chargers are one of the bye teams-they won't have the Sunday 1:00 game as it would be 10:00 there, that's pretty much for sure. So that only leaves them for the remaining 3 spots (Saturday 4:30, Saturday 8:00, Sunday 4:30). I hope that helps at all-I'm guessing that it will be announced in the week between week 17 and WC weekend.

[Andy]

Yeah, before the playoffs begin they'll have announced when the Bears play. I'd guess the Sunday late game if I was a betting man.

[bukie]

Updated for the week 16 games thus far.

[Derwood]

If Tennessee makes the playoffs, that will easily be the best story of the year in the NFL

[CubColtPacer]

This is a repost of the post made in the Week 17 NFL games thread: I thought it appropriate to be here as well.

 

These are some playoff scenarios that I got off of a poster on the indystar board with his permission. Remember, these are unofficial scenarios, so they may have a mistake or two, but this guy really did his homework for these. Also, remember that this is before Monday night's games, so it takes the possible variables of those games into consideration. With those disclaimers out of the way, here it is:

 

NFC:

 

Chicago has clinched the #1, a first-round bye, and HFA.

 

New Orleans has clinched at least the #3. They will clinch the #2 and a first-round bye w/ a win OR a Dallas loss tomorrow night, assuming the Cowboys beat Detroit next week at home. The only way the Saints lose the bye is if the Cowboys win BOTH of their last two games, and NO loses next week. Saints fans, root for a Dallas loss tomorrow, but if they win, NO is still good to go w/ a win on their own next week.

 

Seattle has clinched the #4. They are the #4 no matter what.

 

Dallas has clinched at least the #5. They can only lose the division and wind up #5 (assuming they beat Detroit next week again) if they lose to Philly tomorrow night AND Philly wins next week. So even if they lose tomorrow, they still win the division and get the #3 IF Philly loses next week. Cowboys clinch the #3 w/ a win tomorrow over Philly. They still have a shot at the #2 and a first-round bye, but they need to win BOTH of their last two games AND a New Orleans loss.

 

The following teams have NOT clinched a playoff berth yet:

 

Philly controls their own destiny for both a playoff berth and the division. They can clinch the #3 if they win BOTH of their last two games (assuming again Dallas beats Detroit). Even if they lose a game, all they have to do is win one of their last two and they will get the #5 at 9-7. The only trouble the Eagles can get into is if they lose both games and finish 8-8. Even so, they more than likely get in as they would need either a NY Giants loss OR a Carolina win, and they get the #6. If both happen, they get the #5 even at 8-8. The ONLY way Philly misses the playoffs is if they lose BOTH of their last two games, AND the NYG win next week AND Carolina loses next week.

 

NY Giants are still in the best seat for the last spot. Even if the Giants lose, they can still get the #6 at 7-9 if ALL of the following happen: a Green Bay loss, AND a St. Louis loss, AND a Carolina loss, AND an Atlanta loss. Otherwise (and most likely), the Giants need to win next week AND "possibly" a Green Bay loss OR Philly to lose both of their games. The tiebreaker w/ Green Bay if they are 8-8 would come down to strength of victory and right now the NY Giants lead this category, but Green Bay COULD overtake them next week, maybe or maybe not. NY Giants would own the tiebreak over Philly. If they can overtake both teams, NY Giants can still finish as the #5.

 

Green Bay is in the next best shape but still needs some help. They can ONLY get the #6 seed, as they cannot catch Philly like the Giants possibly still can. Obviously, Packers have to win their game next week. IF NY Giants win Saturday night, they need a win next week AND must overtake the NY Giants in the strength of victory tiebreaker (as mentioned above). IF NY Giants lose Saturday, they need a win AND a St. Louis loss.

 

St. Louis needs a win and some help also. They can only get the #6 as they also cannot catch Philly. Obviously, the Rams have to win to have a chance. They also MUST get a NY Giants loss AND a Carolina loss AND an Atlanta loss. They DON'T need Packers to lose.

 

Carolina also needs help, but not as much as St. Louis. They can only get the #6 seed. Obviously, the Panthers have to win their game. They need a win AND a NY Giants loss AND a Green Bay loss to get in.

 

Atlanta needs even more help. Obviously, they have to win to have a chance. Atlanta DOES NOT need help from St. Louis, that's the good news. The bad is that they need a win AND a Carolina loss AND a Green Bay loss AND a NY Giants loss to get in. Additionally, if Atlanta makes it in based on that formula, they can still get the #5 if Philly loses both of their last two. Philly losses don't keep them from being eliminated though if any of those other teams win.

 

AFC:

 

San Diego has clinched at least the #2 and a first-round bye. They need a win OR a Baltimore loss to clinch the #1 and HFA. The only way they don't get HFA is if they lose (unlikely) and Baltimore wins.

 

Baltimore has clinched at least the #3. They still have a shot at the #1 and HFA w/ a win AND a SD loss. More likely though, they control their own destiny for the #2 and a first-round bye. They get it w/ a win OR a Colts loss. The only way the Ravens lose the bye is if they lose and we win next week.

 

Colts have clinched at least the #4 seed. We wind up #4 if we lose AND New England wins next week. So even if we lose, if NE also loses then we get the #3. We clinch the #3 w/ a win, but still have a shot at the bye. We get the #2 and a first-round bye w/ a win AND a Baltimore loss.

 

New England has clinched at least the #4. The only way they can move up is to the #3 w/ a win AND a Colt's loss.

 

The following teams have NOT clinched a playoff berth yet:

 

Denver controls its own destiny. If they win, they are in (highly likely they will). Even if they lose, they still have a good shot at 9-7 but need either KC to lose to Jax OR one NYJ loss (tomorrow night to Miami is realistically only chance) and they get the #6. Would even still get the #5 if BOTH of those things happen. The only way the Broncos miss the playoffs is if they lose AND KC beats Jax and the NY Jets win both of their last two.

 

NY Jets also control their own destiny. If they win BOTH of their last two, they are in w/ at least the #6 seed (could also still get the #5 if Denver loses next week). If they lose both games, they are out. If they split and go 9-7 (say a loss tomorrow night to Miami and then a win over lowly OAK next week) then they have a chance but need help. They would need 2 of the following 3 things to happen to make it (if all 3 happened they would get the #5): a Cincy loss, {a Denver loss AND a KC win}, {a Tennessee win OR Jax loss}. So if Denver wins (as is likely) the Jets would need a Cincy loss and either a Jax loss or a Tenn win to get in at 9-7.

 

Cincinnati is in the best shape of the teams that DON'T control their own destiny. Obviously, they need a win. As for help, they need EITHER for the NY Jets to lose a game (only real chance tomorrow night) OR {Denver loss AND KC win}. So if Denver wins as they should or KC loses, basically Cincy's hopes come down to a loss tomorrow night by the Jets.

 

Tennessee does not need help from Jax at least. Obviously, they have to win. They also need 2 of the following 3 things to happen (if all 3 happen they get the #5): a Cincy loss, NY Jets lose BOTH of their games, {a Denver loss AND a KC win}. Really a longshot, because their only hope rests on either Denver losing at home to San Fran or the Jets losing at home to the Raiders. Not likely, but there's still hope at least.

 

Jacksonville can only get the #6 seed. They obviously must beat KC next week, plus ALL of the following. They need a win AND a Tennessee loss, AND Cincy loss, AND one NY Jets loss (only real chance is tomorrow night). If the Jets win tomorrow night, they need a lot of help including an Oakland win. Yuck.

 

Kansas City must obviously beat Jax next week to have a chance. They also need 3 of the following 4 things to happen: a Denver loss, a Tennesee loss, a Cincy loss, NYJ lose BOTH of their last two games. So if Denver wins as expected and the Jets can beat Oakland as expected, KC can't do anything about their fate either. But, at least they are alive for now.

 

So enjoy reading about all the crazy scenarios your around .500 team needs to make the playoffs

[dew1679666265]

If Tennessee makes the playoffs, that will easily be the best story of the year in the NFL

 

Much as I'd like to agree, I have a feeling if the Saints are the 2 seed they'll get much more media attention. I do have to say though, the Titans making the playoffs are easily the least likely NFL story this year.

[bukie]

Tennessee can still be eliminated today if the Jets win.

[dew1679666265]

Tennessee can still be eliminated today if the Jets win.

 

You sure we're eliminated? There's still two spots free and I believe we could still grab the other. Of course, whether the Jets win or lose, it's ridicoulously unlikely anyway.

[CubColtPacer]

Tennessee can still be eliminated today if the Jets win.

 

There seems to be some dissension on that point. If the Jets win, Tennessee should still be able to get in with a Denver loss, a Cincy loss, and a KC win (assuming a Titans win for this scenario to work). With those 3 things happening, the divisional tiebreakers will go first to make sure that only 1 team from each division is in the tiebreaker-in that divisional tiebreaker, KC will eliminate Denver. Then, the Titans and KC will square off in their tiebreaker (with the Jets now at 10-6 and having the 5 seed), and the Titans will win the tiebreaker due to better conference record and will take the 6 seed. Even the experts can't seem to agree about the tiebreakers-everybody I've seen has a different opinion on them, but that's the way I and others have understood the tiebreakers to work.

[bukie]

Updated for the Dallas/Philadelphia game.

 

Chicago is the 1 seed, New Orleans is the 2 seed, Seattle is the 4 seed, and Dallas and Philly are the 3/5 seeds, with Philly owning the tiebreaker. Winner gets the leftover playoff team, loser goes to Seattle.

 

Oh, and technically, Green Bay could make the playoffs even if the Giants win if somehow they overtook them in strength of victory. Which they won't, considering the huge gap between them, even with the Packers playing the Bears.

[jaydee]

After watching Dallas and Philly play I would love for the bears to play either of those teams.

[UMFan83]

Dallas losing tonight kills me. They will likely now be a #5 seed. With the way the Seahawks are playing, this means Dallas will likely upset Seattle at home and advance to play the Bears. Dallas is the one team that scares me in the playoffs as our secondary simply will not be able to stop both TO and Glenn IMO.

 

Any other team and I'd feel comfortable, but not the Cowboys, although it now seems like a formality that we play them.

[TruffleShuffle]

After watching Dallas and Philly play I would love for the bears to play either of those teams.

 

Not that I think the Eagles are an amazing team, but how does watching them go into Dallas and thoroughly outplay the Cowboys make you really want the Bears to play the Eagles? That was one of the best games I've seen the Eagles play this year.

[bukie]

Philly is still the team that concerns me most in the NFC. I don't mean to sound arrogant, but I really do believe the Bears are significantly better than the rest of the NFC this year. I base this on my belief that there are 4 teams capable of winning the Super Bowl this year, and the Bears are the only one in the NFC (Chargers, Ravens, Patriots). Jacksonville would have been a tough out in the playoffs, but they need a nigh miracle to sneak in at this point.

[Flames24Rulz]

So here's our clinching scenarios:

 

Green Bay can clinch a playoff berth with:

1. A win plus a NY Giants win + GB clinches strength of victory tiebreaker over NYG

Or

2. A win plus a NY Giants loss or tie plus a St. Louis loss or tie

Or

3. A win plus a NY Giants loss or tie plus a Carolina win

Or

4. A win plus a NY Giants loss or tie plus an Atlanta win

Or

5. A tie plus a NY Giants loss plus a St. Louis loss plus an Atlanta loss or tie plus a Carolina loss or tie

 

#2, #3, and #4 are definitely the most likely. Besides the Giants, we have the best chance of getting the 6th seed.

[soccer10k]

Dallas losing tonight kills me. They will likely now be a #5 seed. With the way the Seahawks are playing, this means Dallas will likely upset Seattle at home and advance to play the Bears. Dallas is the one team that scares me in the playoffs as our secondary simply will not be able to stop both TO and Glenn IMO.

 

Any other team and I'd feel comfortable, but not the Cowboys, although it now seems like a formality that we play them.

 

With TO's butterfingers you don't have to worry about covering him too much. The most coverage of TO will be done by the media after he makes another lame duck excuse about how when he "looked up, and located the ball, it was right on [him]" even though he was looking at it for a few seconds before watching it go right through his hands.

 

/TO rant

 

Sorry, I wasn't planning on ranting but it just sort of came out. It was going to happen somewhere.

[BigSlick]

I'll eat my own right foot if anyone but SD gets out of the AFC

 

Prepare to eat your foot.

 

SD isn't that great, and the rest of the AFC ain't that shabby. Consider this, the Ravens have already beaten the Chargers.

[Derwood]

I'm still nervous as hell about the Bears. 13-2 is very impressive, but the team's schedule this year was:

 

NFC North x2 (weak division)

NFC West (weak division)

AFC East (pretty good, accounts for the 2 losses)

NY Giants (overhyped)

Tampa Bay (suckfest)

 

I could easily see either Dallas or New Orleans taking the Bears out in the playoffs.

[bukie]

Updated for all Week 17 scenarios. The Giants, Jets and Broncos all control their own destiny, as they are all in with a win.

 

The Green Bay strength of victory scenario can't happen. Even if every game goes Green Bay's way in terms of strength of victory (i.e. every team they beat wins and every non-common Giant opponent loses), the Giants will still win strength of victory by a considerable margin. So the Packers need the Giants to lose.

[Banedon]

So the Packers need the Giants to lose.

 

With the way the Giants have been playing, that's not exactly asking a miracle...heh.

[Banedon]

I'm still nervous as hell about the Bears. 13-2 is very impressive, but the team's schedule this year was:

 

NFC North x2 (weak division)

NFC West (weak division)

AFC East (pretty good, accounts for the 2 losses)

NY Giants (overhyped)

Tampa Bay (suckfest)

 

I could easily see either Dallas or New Orleans taking the Bears out in the playoffs.

 

I can't see losing to Dallas. NO maybe...but really I think the NFC is the Bears' to lose.