Cubs Pursuing Lilly

[Butterscup1679666578]

Lilly's mechanics are garbage.

 

It's ironic because the guy with the Wood pic in his sig is saying that ;)

[cheapseats]

Lilly's mechanics are garbage.

 

You know Lilly's mechanics?

[baseball7897]

Lilly's mechanics are garbage.

 

You know Lilly's mechanics?

 

I know everyone's mechanics. :D

[rawaction]

I know we're in a position where we can't be choosy. I also like to take the negative side too often.

 

The only pitchers I've heard are available that are quality pitchers are Schmidt, Westbrook, and Jason Jennings. Jennings one year might've been an illusion, but I'd take a shot on him. Granted, Westbrook and Jennings won't come cheap. Westbrook might cost Pie.

 

Lilly's health and pitching tendencies would make him a sizable risk. Walks and homers and a bad shoulder don't promise much. The odds, IMO, are greater that he'll be bad rather than good. If things went great, he might be a bad #2 starter. In a good case, he could be a decent #3. Most likely, he's a solid #4 pitching 1/2-3/4 of 4 seasons at $10M per.

 

Just because there's not much on the market, do you tie up a roster spot and $10M a year for the next four years on what's likely an average pitcher, at best?

 

Sometimes it's wiser to accept you can't recover from years of injuries and bad personnel decisions in one offseason. Spending isn't necessarily improving.

 

And I'd actually take Suppan before Lilly, too. Neither will be a staff-saver, but Suppan can at least throw a ground ball.

 

Good post. The order in which I evaluate the pitching talent available this offseason is:

 

Schmidt, Jennings, Westbrook, Padilla, Suppan, Lilly, Meche, Batista

 

I don't have an issue with Lilly if he's considered a 4th or 5th starter and they still plan on getting one of the top 3 in that list, preferably Schmidt. If Hendry is grooming him as his big signing, the pitching staff is in big trouble.

 

I completely agree. I think 1 of the first 3 is imperative. All have the potential to be very good starters. The top 2 were among the NLs top 10 pitchers in 2005.

[CubinNY]

Lilly's mechanics are garbage.

 

You know Lilly's mechanics?

 

They can fix a carb on a '72 GTO 4 barrell worth a damn.

[rawaction]

CUBS NOT CLOSE!!!! more speculation from mlb-rumors.blogspot.com: (who knows if it's reliable; I'm just in need of good news.)

 

Earlier today, Jason Stark reported that Ted Lilly was set to sign with the Cubs. However, the rumor was false and Lilly's agent is planning to meet with the following teams tomorrow: Cubs, Giants, Yankees, Blue Jays and Mariners. Larry O'Brien was quick to squash the rumor that he has agreed to a deal with the Cubs. Lilly is seeking a four-year deal in the $35-40 million range, and the Cubs are among the clubs to have made him an offer. "We're beyond the preliminary stage [with the Cubs], but our discussions are ongoing," O'Brien said. Yankees GM Brian Cashman has said he has had discussions with O'Brien and they both have interest in returning to New York. Finally, Jays GM J.P. Ricciardi has offered Lilly arbitration and he has til Thursday to accept. However, O'Brien says that they have had regular discussions and plans to meet with them tomorrow.

 

I really don't want Lilly for 4-years. 3 I'd accept. 2 would be great.

[cubs121]

CUBS NOT CLOSE!!!! more speculation from mlb-rumors.blogspot.com: (who knows if it's reliable; I'm just in need of good news.)

 

Earlier today, Jason Stark reported that Ted Lilly was set to sign with the Cubs. However, the rumor was false and Lilly's agent is planning to meet with the following teams tomorrow: Cubs, Giants, Yankees, Blue Jays and Mariners. Larry O'Brien was quick to squash the rumor that he has agreed to a deal with the Cubs. Lilly is seeking a four-year deal in the $35-40 million range, and the Cubs are among the clubs to have made him an offer. "We're beyond the preliminary stage [with the Cubs], but our discussions are ongoing," O'Brien said. Yankees GM Brian Cashman has said he has had discussions with O'Brien and they both have interest in returning to New York. Finally, Jays GM J.P. Ricciardi has offered Lilly arbitration and he has til Thursday to accept. However, O'Brien says that they have had regular discussions and plans to meet with them tomorrow.

 

I really don't want Lilly for 4-years. 3 I'd accept. 2 would be great.

i think a 2 year deal would be great also, but i was thinking if the contract would be a 4 year deal then why not make it more tradeble in the future?

[imb]

Lilly's mechanics are garbage.

 

You know Lilly's mechanics?

 

I know everyone's mechanics. :D

 

hey are you a pitcher or something

[Tedward]

Picked this up from a recently posted article in New York Newsday regarding the possibility of Zito to the Mets...

 

With Adam Eaton getting a three-year, $24-million deal from the Phillies, and the Cubs reportedly working on a four-year, $44-million contract for Ted Lilly, there's little doubt Zito could receive every cent he's looking for. But if he wants to pitch in New York, Zito may have to consider other things beyond the bottom line.

 

Ugh 4 / 44 for Lilly. I realize we've got to overpay to get picthing via FA, but $11MM per season for Lilly. Just wow.

[E.J.]

$11 million a year for 4 years? Ugh. This market is terrible.

[CubinNY]

This market is terrible.

 

It's the new normal.

 

The super-rich get richer and the rich get richer.

 

To qoute our super-rich VP

 

"A rising tide lifts all boats"

 

Except the fan who wants to bring a family of 4 to a ball game, he gets a lifesaver made of swiss cheese.

[cubs121]

11 mil for Lilly? [-X

[frostwyrm]

This market is terrible.

 

It's the new normal.

 

 

I don't believe this is normal at all. 4/44 for players like Lilly is not a sustainable price structure. This is a bubble market, and it's the worst possible time to try to take a team from last to first all in one offseason.

[sethuel1]

So, $11 mil a year for Lilly or $15 mil a year for Schmidt?

[jjgman21]

Picked this up from a recently posted article in New York Newsday regarding the possibility of Zito to the Mets...

 

With Adam Eaton getting a three-year, $24-million deal from the Phillies, and the Cubs reportedly working on a four-year, $44-million contract for Ted Lilly, there's little doubt Zito could receive every cent he's looking for. But if he wants to pitch in New York, Zito may have to consider other things beyond the bottom line.

 

Ugh 4 / 44 for Lilly. I realize we've got to overpay to get picthing via FA, but $11MM per season for Lilly. Just wow.

 

I don't buy that figure. Newsday is reporting a reporting, but nobody has seen this alleged report to which they refer. I'll need some confirmation from a second source before I trust Newday on this. I would not doubt pandering for one of the New York teams is going on in that quip.

[Rob]

Picked this up from a recently posted article in New York Newsday regarding the possibility of Zito to the Mets...

 

With Adam Eaton getting a three-year, $24-million deal from the Phillies, and the Cubs reportedly working on a four-year, $44-million contract for Ted Lilly, there's little doubt Zito could receive every cent he's looking for. But if he wants to pitch in New York, Zito may have to consider other things beyond the bottom line.

 

Ugh 4 / 44 for Lilly. I realize we've got to overpay to get picthing via FA, but $11MM per season for Lilly. Just wow.

 

I don't buy that figure. Newsday is reporting a reporting, but nobody has seen this alleged report to which they refer. I'll need some confirmation from a second source before I trust Newday on this. I would not doubt pandering for one of the New York teams is going on in that quip.

 

I think they're just using the max predictions from everybody.

 

A few sources came in today and said he was asking 11 per. It's been known for a while he's looking for 4 years. If they heard we were close, it'd be natural to assume we're near 4/44.

 

I'm gonna be pissed if it's more than 4/32... and I'll probably be pissed even if it's that.

[abuck1220]

man, schmidt + marshall/guzman would be so much cheaper AND better than lilly + marquis/meche.

[VanceJergins]

man, schmidt + marshall/guzman would be so much cheaper AND better than lilly + marquis/meche.

 

Yeah, and I'm fairly confident that if you let Marshal, Guzman, Marmol, Mateo, and Gallagher compete for a spot in ST, the winner would have a season somewhere between nearly as good, to much better than Lilly. One Lilly-esque pitcher would be understandable, but two would be a complete waste of money. Just get someone who can make a difference (Schmidt, Zito, Jenning, Penny, maybe Westrook) and let some kids fight for the fifth spot.

[HoopsCubs]

http://www.globesports.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20061204.wspt-blair04/GSStory/GlobeSportsBaseball/?page=rss&id=RTGAM.20061204.wspt-blair04

 

Enter new suitor for Lilly: the Padres.

 

Go sign him Mr. Towers. It would be nice if Hendry got over his infatuation with Lilly, and re-focused his efforts on Schmidt.

[inari]

For what it's worth, Steve Phillips says a trade involving Carlos Marmol and Jacque Jones for Jason Jennings is being discussed. He also says he expects Lilly to sign with the Cubs tomorrow.

[Balsa]

For what it's worth, Steve Phillips says a trade involving Carlos Marmol and Jacque Jones for Jason Jennings is being discussed. He also says he expects Lilly to sign with the Cubs tomorrow.

Interesting, but with Lugo probably going to Boston that puts us one OF down.

[Mephistopheles]

can we get some chris nelson with that? they dont need him and a move to another system may give some moore magic to the cubs acquistions

[nilodnayr]

someone seriously might give Suppan $10M per year? That's a riot.

 

I think he is worth more than Lilly.

Suppan's ERA+ has been over league average 7 out of the last 8 seasons and the one year it was below 100, it was so by only 3 points. Lilly is far more inconsistent, but also has a higher ceiling. Lilly posted an ERA+ of 120 in '02 and '04. Suppan hit 120 in '05 but is consistently between 103-112. On the contrary, Lilly's ERA+ was 80 in '05 and 98 in '03. He has been following the pattern of good in the even years and bad in the odd.

 

Suppan can also throw a ground ball much better than Lilly can. Sup's GB% lives at around 46% while Lilly's is only 35-36% while giving up significantly more flyballs. Lilly will make them miss more often with a higher K total and lower BAA (Suppan is clearly more hittable though not by a lot), but Lilly's flyballs in the NL Central could be dangerous. Wrigley is made for a groundball pitcher like Suppan.

 

Suppan is only one year older than Lilly almost to the day, so age shouldn't be that much of a factor.

 

If their costs are similar, the numbers seem to show an advantage to signing Suppan over Lilly.

 

Edited for stupidity

 

Additionally, in Lilly's 02 when he had the 120 ERA+, his BABIP was about 70 points lower than what his LD% projects. In 04 it was about 40 points lower than LD% projection. His LOB% was also significantly higher than league average (and his other years) in 02 and 04. His peripherals show that 02 and 04 were very much fluke years.

Edited December 5, 2006 by nilodnayr

[Ding Dong Johnson]

Correction, Lilly's ERA+ in 04 was 109, not 120.

 

No, his ERA+ was 120 in 2002 and 2004. It was 109 in 2006.

[nilodnayr]

Correction, Lilly's ERA+ in 04 was 109, not 120.

 

No, his ERA+ was 120 in 2002 and 2004. It was 109 in 2006.

 

I'm stupid, the rest of the argument still stands.