Cubs Pursuing Lilly

[Soul]

So to clarify, there's definitely no word on rather Lilly (or Schmidt for that matter) has actually been signed or agreed to anything?

 

Nope. It's all still just talk.

[frostwyrm]

Interesting note about Lilly:

 

According to Nate Silver, PECOTA projects Lilly to have a 4.90 ERA if he plays for Toronto, but adjusting for park factors, league difficulty, etc., he'd project to have a 4.36 ERA pitching for the Cubs.

 

4/40 for a 4.36 ERA in 1st year of the deal? Awesome, what a bargain!

 

feel free to share your ideas for what the cubs should do.

 

They could've NOT tried to do a worst-to-first overnight rebuilding job in the least favorable market in the history of pro sports.

[Rob]

Interesting note about Lilly:

 

According to Nate Silver, PECOTA projects Lilly to have a 4.90 ERA if he plays for Toronto, but adjusting for park factors, league difficulty, etc., he'd project to have a 4.36 ERA pitching for the Cubs.

 

4/40 for a 4.36 ERA in 1st year of the deal? Awesome, what a bargain!

 

feel free to share your ideas for what the cubs should do.

 

They could've NOT tried to do a worst-to-first overnight rebuilding job in the least favorable market in the history of pro sports.

 

I've yet to see anybody of Hampton's caliber get 100+ mil this offseason.

[CubinNY]

Interesting note about Lilly:

 

According to Nate Silver, PECOTA projects Lilly to have a 4.90 ERA if he plays for Toronto, but adjusting for park factors, league difficulty, etc., he'd project to have a 4.36 ERA pitching for the Cubs.

 

4/40 for a 4.36 ERA in 1st year of the deal? Awesome, what a bargain!

 

feel free to share your ideas for what the cubs should do.

 

They could've NOT tried to do a worst-to-first overnight rebuilding job in the least favorable market in the history of pro sports.

 

I would have liked them to go after Drew instead of Soriano. However, they still got a pretty good player.

 

Now if the Cubs get Lilly and Marquis I won't be happy. But if they get Schmidt and Lilly I will be.

 

Anyone know if they get both how many SP will be on the team. Who's out of options?

[TruffleShuffle]

Interesting note about Lilly:

 

According to Nate Silver, PECOTA projects Lilly to have a 4.90 ERA if he plays for Toronto, but adjusting for park factors, league difficulty, etc., he'd project to have a 4.36 ERA pitching for the Cubs.

 

4/40 for a 4.36 ERA in 1st year of the deal? Awesome, what a bargain!

 

feel free to share your ideas for what the cubs should do.

 

They could've NOT tried to do a worst-to-first overnight rebuilding job in the least favorable market in the history of pro sports.

 

maybe it's the least favorable. From what I've read, a lot of people don't expect this to be a bubble that will burst in the future. Contracts are just going to keep going up. Plus, even if they sign someone like Lilly for 4 years, that's not a crippling contract. Soriano is the only one with a very long, very expensive deal.

[frostwyrm]

Interesting note about Lilly:

 

According to Nate Silver, PECOTA projects Lilly to have a 4.90 ERA if he plays for Toronto, but adjusting for park factors, league difficulty, etc., he'd project to have a 4.36 ERA pitching for the Cubs.

 

4/40 for a 4.36 ERA in 1st year of the deal? Awesome, what a bargain!

 

feel free to share your ideas for what the cubs should do.

 

They could've NOT tried to do a worst-to-first overnight rebuilding job in the least favorable market in the history of pro sports.

 

I've yet to see anybody of Hampton's caliber get 100+ mil this offseason.

 

Yeah, but we do have a soon-to-be 31 yr. old corner outfielder with a career .835 OPS, and he got $136 mil.

[frostwyrm]

Interesting note about Lilly:

 

According to Nate Silver, PECOTA projects Lilly to have a 4.90 ERA if he plays for Toronto, but adjusting for park factors, league difficulty, etc., he'd project to have a 4.36 ERA pitching for the Cubs.

 

4/40 for a 4.36 ERA in 1st year of the deal? Awesome, what a bargain!

 

feel free to share your ideas for what the cubs should do.

 

They could've NOT tried to do a worst-to-first overnight rebuilding job in the least favorable market in the history of pro sports.

 

maybe it's the least favorable. From what I've read, a lot of people don't expect this to be a bubble that will burst in the future. Contracts are just going to keep going up. Plus, even if they sign someone like Lilly for 4 years, that's not a crippling contract. Soriano is the only one with a very long, very expensive deal.

 

It's a bubble. You can't have average #4 starting pitchers getting 4/40 deals indefinitely. The numbers just won't add up in the longterm.

[C.C.]

Interesting note about Lilly:

 

According to Nate Silver, PECOTA projects Lilly to have a 4.90 ERA if he plays for Toronto, but adjusting for park factors, league difficulty, etc., he'd project to have a 4.36 ERA pitching for the Cubs.

 

4/40 for a 4.36 ERA in 1st year of the deal? Awesome, what a bargain!

 

feel free to share your ideas for what the cubs should do.

 

They could've NOT tried to do a worst-to-first overnight rebuilding job in the least favorable market in the history of pro sports.

 

maybe it's the least favorable. From what I've read, a lot of people don't expect this to be a bubble that will burst in the future. Contracts are just going to keep going up. Plus, even if they sign someone like Lilly for 4 years, that's not a crippling contract. Soriano is the only one with a very long, very expensive deal.

 

It's a bubble. You can't have average #4 starting pitchers getting 4/40 deals indefinitely. The numbers just won't add up in the longterm.

 

I can care less about long term. As a lifelong Cubs fan I want to win and win soon.

[TruffleShuffle]

Yeah, but we do have a soon-to-be 31 yr. old corner outfielder with a career .835 OPS, and he got $136 mil.

 

You seem unwilling to believe that last year was anything but a fluke.

 

P/PA:

2005 - 3.65

2006 - 3.90

 

BB/PA:

2005 - .048

2006 - .092

 

SecA:

2005 - .339

2006 - .423

 

Even his strikeouts increased by 35 last year - again, indicating an increase in patience. It's not like he had some bizarro BABIP that clearly indicates a fluke year. It seems to me that he had a breakthrough last year in his plate discipline, and his numbers jumped accordingly.

[TruffleShuffle]

It's a bubble. You can't have average #4 starting pitchers getting 4/40 deals indefinitely. The numbers just won't add up in the longterm.

 

How do you know? You've done a revenue analysis?

[RynoRules]

I kind of feel the same, but I know frosty thinks we should have blown this thing up rather than making our move into baseball's true salary stratosphere.

[goonys evil twin]

It's a bubble. You can't have average #4 starting pitchers getting 4/40 deals indefinitely. The numbers just won't add up in the longterm.

 

You have to be in it to win it. This bubble is simply getting salaries back to where they were a few years ago, when ho-hum pitchers were getting $10+m and any first baseman that was any good got $17m. The money is obviously available, owners wouldn't authorize the contracts if they didn't think they could be paid. Baseball is probably in the best position as far as teams that get a lot of production out of their least expensive players, with the whole arbitration and free agency after 6 years set-up. They make up for it by overpaying guys who last long enough to be free agents and still contribute. Your theory is only true if the owners are dead wrong on their forecasts for future revenue, and/or the economy crashes.

[Sarcastic]

Interesting note about Lilly:

 

According to Nate Silver, PECOTA projects Lilly to have a 4.90 ERA if he plays for Toronto, but adjusting for park factors, league difficulty, etc., he'd project to have a 4.36 ERA pitching for the Cubs.

 

4/40 for a 4.36 ERA in 1st year of the deal? Awesome, what a bargain!

 

feel free to share your ideas for what the cubs should do.

 

They could've NOT tried to do a worst-to-first overnight rebuilding job in the least favorable market in the history of pro sports.

 

maybe it's the least favorable. From what I've read, a lot of people don't expect this to be a bubble that will burst in the future. Contracts are just going to keep going up. Plus, even if they sign someone like Lilly for 4 years, that's not a crippling contract. Soriano is the only one with a very long, very expensive deal.

 

It's a bubble. You can't have average #4 starting pitchers getting 4/40 deals indefinitely. The numbers just won't add up in the longterm.

 

Hasn't this been said for decades now? The market will dip temporarily at some point, but I have to believe that unless baseball loses popularity or the economy goes for a nosedive, salaries will continue to rise.

[frostwyrm]

It's a bubble. You can't have average #4 starting pitchers getting 4/40 deals indefinitely. The numbers just won't add up in the longterm.

 

How do you know? You've done a revenue analysis?

 

I haven't done a revenue analysis, but if average #4 starters keep getting 4/40 and Gary Matthew Jr. types keep getting 5/50 it looks to me like it will soon require a Yankees-size payroll to field an MLB contender.

[goonys evil twin]

It's a bubble. You can't have average #4 starting pitchers getting 4/40 deals indefinitely. The numbers just won't add up in the longterm.

 

How do you know? You've done a revenue analysis?

 

I haven't done a revenue analysis, but if average #4 starters keep getting 4/40 and Gary Matthew Jr. types keep getting 5/50 it looks to me like it will soon require a Yankees-size payroll to field an MLB contender.

 

That's how expanding economies work. It wasn't that long ago that a $95 million payroll was considered obscene. Today, a $2 billion publicly traded company would be considered a small cap stock, that wasn't the case 10 years ago.

[Vinestal]

A piece from Jason Stark's ESPN article today quoting Jim Hendry:

 

"But if you find yourself in a spot where you're a contending club and your young pitching isn't ready, what are you going to do?" Cubs GM Jim Hendry asked. "You're in a spot where you do what you have to do, even if you aren't doing what you want to do." "Obviously, this is a spot we've never been in, and it's not a spot you like to be in," Hendry said. "It wasn't too long ago that we thought we were all set with real good young starting pitching. Heck, in 2003, Carlos Zambrano was our fourth starter [behind Mark Prior, Kerry Wood and Matt Clement]. We thought we were in great shape. They were all in their 20s. And they were all zero to three [years of experience]. But it didn't work out how we thought it would work out or how we expected it to work out."

 

Sorry if it was already posted but I thought it was interesting.

[goonys evil twin]

A piece from Jason Stark's ESPN article today quoting Jim Hendry:

 

"But if you find yourself in a spot where you're a contending club and your young pitching isn't ready, what are you going to do?" Cubs GM Jim Hendry asked. "You're in a spot where you do what you have to do, even if you aren't doing what you want to do." "Obviously, this is a spot we've never been in, and it's not a spot you like to be in," Hendry said. "It wasn't too long ago that we thought we were all set with real good young starting pitching. Heck, in 2003, Carlos Zambrano was our fourth starter [behind Mark Prior, Kerry Wood and Matt Clement]. We thought we were in great shape. They were all in their 20s. And they were all zero to three [years of experience]. But it didn't work out how we thought it would work out or how we expected it to work out."

 

Sorry if it was already posted but I thought it was interesting.

 

In other words:

 

I painted myself into a corner and now I'm screwed.

[frostwyrm]

It's a bubble. You can't have average #4 starting pitchers getting 4/40 deals indefinitely. The numbers just won't add up in the longterm.

 

How do you know? You've done a revenue analysis?

 

I haven't done a revenue analysis, but if average #4 starters keep getting 4/40 and Gary Matthew Jr. types keep getting 5/50 it looks to me like it will soon require a Yankees-size payroll to field an MLB contender.

 

That's how expanding economies work. It wasn't that long ago that a $95 million payroll was considered obscene. Today, a $2 billion publicly traded company would be considered a small cap stock, that wasn't the case 10 years ago.

 

If these prices persist for 2 more years I think we'll see greatly increased revenue sharing or a salary cap. It won't be acceptable to a have situation where it requires $175-200M just to field a respectable team, not unless small market teams get a whole lot of help.

[USSoccer]

A piece from Jason Stark's ESPN article today quoting Jim Hendry:

 

"But if you find yourself in a spot where you're a contending club and your young pitching isn't ready, what are you going to do?" Cubs GM Jim Hendry asked. "You're in a spot where you do what you have to do, even if you aren't doing what you want to do." "Obviously, this is a spot we've never been in, and it's not a spot you like to be in," Hendry said. "It wasn't too long ago that we thought we were all set with real good young starting pitching. Heck, in 2003, Carlos Zambrano was our fourth starter [behind Mark Prior, Kerry Wood and Matt Clement]. We thought we were in great shape. They were all in their 20s. And they were all zero to three [years of experience]. But it didn't work out how we thought it would work out or how we expected it to work out."

 

Sorry if it was already posted but I thought it was interesting.

 

In other words:

 

I painted myself into a corner and now I'm screwed.

 

Also known as:

 

I cannot believe that Mark Prior broke down and I'm about to give Ted Lilly $10m per.

 

 

It bears asking what Zambrano is going to ask for when the time comes.

[inari]

A piece from Jason Stark's ESPN article today quoting Jim Hendry:

 

"But if you find yourself in a spot where you're a contending club and your young pitching isn't ready, what are you going to do?" Cubs GM Jim Hendry asked. "You're in a spot where you do what you have to do, even if you aren't doing what you want to do." "Obviously, this is a spot we've never been in, and it's not a spot you like to be in," Hendry said. "It wasn't too long ago that we thought we were all set with real good young starting pitching. Heck, in 2003, Carlos Zambrano was our fourth starter [behind Mark Prior, Kerry Wood and Matt Clement]. We thought we were in great shape. They were all in their 20s. And they were all zero to three [years of experience]. But it didn't work out how we thought it would work out or how we expected it to work out."

 

Sorry if it was already posted but I thought it was interesting.

 

In other words:

 

I painted myself into a corner and now I'm screwed.

 

For what it's worth, I don't think Hendry really mismanaged the rotation. He couldn't have anticipated Prior breaking down like this. Wood, maybe, but not Prior.

[Vinestal]

A piece from Jason Stark's ESPN article today quoting Jim Hendry:

 

"But if you find yourself in a spot where you're a contending club and your young pitching isn't ready, what are you going to do?" Cubs GM Jim Hendry asked. "You're in a spot where you do what you have to do, even if you aren't doing what you want to do." "Obviously, this is a spot we've never been in, and it's not a spot you like to be in," Hendry said. "It wasn't too long ago that we thought we were all set with real good young starting pitching. Heck, in 2003, Carlos Zambrano was our fourth starter [behind Mark Prior, Kerry Wood and Matt Clement]. We thought we were in great shape. They were all in their 20s. And they were all zero to three [years of experience]. But it didn't work out how we thought it would work out or how we expected it to work out."

 

Sorry if it was already posted but I thought it was interesting.

 

In other words:

 

I painted myself into a corner and now I'm screwed.

 

He might have had plenty of pitching if he hadnt wasted it trading away for players like Pierre. He did get screwed by injuries but some of that is because of his bad choice in managers.

[UMFan83]

A piece from Jason Stark's ESPN article today quoting Jim Hendry:

 

"But if you find yourself in a spot where you're a contending club and your young pitching isn't ready, what are you going to do?" Cubs GM Jim Hendry asked. "You're in a spot where you do what you have to do, even if you aren't doing what you want to do." "Obviously, this is a spot we've never been in, and it's not a spot you like to be in," Hendry said. "It wasn't too long ago that we thought we were all set with real good young starting pitching. Heck, in 2003, Carlos Zambrano was our fourth starter [behind Mark Prior, Kerry Wood and Matt Clement]. We thought we were in great shape. They were all in their 20s. And they were all zero to three [years of experience]. But it didn't work out how we thought it would work out or how we expected it to work out."

 

Sorry if it was already posted but I thought it was interesting.

 

In other words:

 

I painted myself into a corner and now I'm screwed.

 

Also known as:

 

I cannot believe that Mark Prior broke down and I'm about to give Ted Lilly $10m per.

 

 

It bears asking what Zambrano is going to ask for when the time comes.

 

I think he seems like the guy that would take a hometown discount. Sure helps that he ditched Boras as an agent.

[frostwyrm]

A piece from Jason Stark's ESPN article today quoting Jim Hendry:

 

"But if you find yourself in a spot where you're a contending club and your young pitching isn't ready, what are you going to do?" Cubs GM Jim Hendry asked. "You're in a spot where you do what you have to do, even if you aren't doing what you want to do." "Obviously, this is a spot we've never been in, and it's not a spot you like to be in," Hendry said. "It wasn't too long ago that we thought we were all set with real good young starting pitching. Heck, in 2003, Carlos Zambrano was our fourth starter [behind Mark Prior, Kerry Wood and Matt Clement]. We thought we were in great shape. They were all in their 20s. And they were all zero to three [years of experience]. But it didn't work out how we thought it would work out or how we expected it to work out."

 

Sorry if it was already posted but I thought it was interesting.

 

In other words:

 

I painted myself into a corner and now I'm screwed.

 

In other words:

 

I can't afford even one retooling year, because my sorry ass will be fired if I don't produce a winner overnight.

[TruffleShuffle]

It's a bubble. You can't have average #4 starting pitchers getting 4/40 deals indefinitely. The numbers just won't add up in the longterm.

 

How do you know? You've done a revenue analysis?

 

I haven't done a revenue analysis, but if average #4 starters keep getting 4/40 and Gary Matthew Jr. types keep getting 5/50 it looks to me like it will soon require a Yankees-size payroll to field an MLB contender.

 

1. Alex Rodriguez 25,680,727

2. Derek Jeter 20,600,000

3. Jason Giambi 20,428,571

4. Mike Mussina 19,000,000

5. Randy Johnson 15,661,427

6. Bobby Abreu 13,600,000

7. Johnny Damon 13,000,000

8. Hideki Matsui 13,000,000

9. Jorge Posada 12,000,000

10. Mariano Rivera 10,500,000

11. Carl Pavano 8,000,000

12. Kyle Farnsworth 5,416,667

13. Tanyon Sturtze 1,500,000

14. Mike Myers 1,150,000

15. Robinson Cano 381,100

16. Scott Proctor 353,675

17. Chien-Ming Wang 353,175

18. Andy Phillips 331,150

19. Wil Nieves 328,600

Total Team Salary: 198,662,180

 

 

When the Cubs have 10 guys on their roster making $10M per year, let me know and four guys making about $20M or more, let me know.

[Shavo]

A piece from Jason Stark's ESPN article today quoting Jim Hendry:

 

"But if you find yourself in a spot where you're a contending club and your young pitching isn't ready, what are you going to do?" Cubs GM Jim Hendry asked. "You're in a spot where you do what you have to do, even if you aren't doing what you want to do." "Obviously, this is a spot we've never been in, and it's not a spot you like to be in," Hendry said. "It wasn't too long ago that we thought we were all set with real good young starting pitching. Heck, in 2003, Carlos Zambrano was our fourth starter [behind Mark Prior, Kerry Wood and Matt Clement]. We thought we were in great shape. They were all in their 20s. And they were all zero to three [years of experience]. But it didn't work out how we thought it would work out or how we expected it to work out."

 

Sorry if it was already posted but I thought it was interesting.

 

In other words:

 

I painted myself into a corner and now I'm screwed.

 

In other words:

 

I can't afford even one retooling year, because my sorry ass will be fired if I don't produce a winner overnight.

 

:lol: Owned.