Rich Hill & '07 Projections -Bill James Handbook (Merged

[KatJ]

listen, dude...i don't care if you agree with me or not (in fact, if you did agree with me, i'd be worried),

 

If this discussion continues, please just don't use the word "dude". It reminds me automatically of Baker, and that makes me a sad panda.

 

Just thought I'd try an albeit poor attempt at levity in this thread.

[CubsWin]

I think this really should be split off into another thread, since almost none of it has anything to do with Rich Hill's projections for 2007.

I said this few days ago and I couldn't agree more. If anyone really wants to continue this discussion, feel free to PM me, but enough of the hi-jacking of this thread please.

[CubsWin]

listen dude, we just disagree. you like glendon rusch, i like rich hill. one of us is wrong, the other is right...i guess time will tell which was which.

When did I say that I liked Glendon Rusch? I don't even want him on the team. I simply stated a fact about him. An irrefutable fact that you refuse to believe.

 

I know that when I say "how in the hell can you pretend that saying that Glendon Rusch was good in 75 percent of his outings is an irrefutable fact" you will just say "Im not going into it again", but.

 

How in the hell can you pretend that saying that Glendon Rusch was good in 75 percent of his outings is an irrefutable fact?

I'm more than happy to explain how Glendon Rusch was good about 75% of the time he was a Cub in '04 and '05 is clearly an irrefutable fact. But not in this thread. I'll PM you instead.

[Soul]

Have any of you heard that guy who comes on Murph every week? I think he's from Baseball InfoSolutions, or something like that.

 

Anyway, he thinks Hill is going to blow up this year. Apparently James does too.

 

That does it. Hill will officially rock this season. Can there be any doubt?

[CUBZ99]

Have any of you heard that guy who comes on Murph every week? I think he's from Baseball InfoSolutions, or something like that.

 

Anyway, he thinks Hill is going to blow up this year. Apparently James does too.

 

That does it. Hill will officially rock this season. Can there be any doubt?

 

Blow up as in have a huge year ---- or ---- Blow up as in completely fall apart?

[NoDak]

which of these is an opinion?

 

1. HILL WAS NOT USED/DEMOTED AFTER A GREAT RELIEF OUTING IN 2005.

2. HILL WAS PASSED OVER FOR STARTS AT THE EXPENSE OF GLENDON RUSCH. HILL WAS THE BEST PITCHER IN THE MINORS AT THIS TIME, AND GLENDON RUSCH WAS, WELL, GLENDON RUSCH.

3. HILL DID NOT MAKE THE ROTATION OUT OF SPRING TRAINING. RUSCH AND MARSHALL DID.

4. HILL WAS TRASHED ON HIS WAY OUT THE DOOR AFTER THE WHITE SOX GAME.

 

none.

 

These are all facts. These were not what I was talking about. These are the declarative statements you make well which I referred to. What you said after each one, the "comments" were opinion, or, at least not verifiable facts in my opinion.

 

Let's look at what seems to be your premise. That Rich Hill's production improved in the "second half" was due to him getting more experience. Maybe a "critical mass" of innings? Maybe not.

 

Here is my question. Looking at his game log at http://www.baseball-reference.com/pi/gl.cgi?n1=hillri01&year=2006&t=p , http://www.baseball-reference.com/pi/gl.cgi?n1=hillri01&year=2005&t=p he had a single quality start in 2005 and none in the first half of 2006 (but May 14 against SDP was close). After being send down to the minors for about a 6 weeks he came up and was less than impressive in his first start back, then had 2 outstanding starts, a rocky one against COL and mop up duty vs HOU in a marathon game, then came one out away from a stretch of 6 quality starts in a row.

 

While I will harp on sample size as much as the next guy, the fact is that virtually all of his good games came after his last time being sent down. That seems to me to be too sudden of a turn around to just be chalked up to "major league experience." While I agree we can't do a lot of generalizing based on his earlier failures the turn around is dramatic enough that I would say that something changed for him because if it was merely experience then the improvement would have been far more gradual. There were 5 consecutive non-quality starts in just 2006 (and not even close most of the time) to being 4 outs away (over 2 nonconsecutive starts) from 9 consecutive quality starts that is what I call an about face. Now, if it was more gradual I would be inclined to agree with you. If he still had 1/3 (or more) of his starts be reversions back to the former Rich Hill then I would be more inclined to think of it as him gaining experience. But that dramatic of a turn around tells me that he actually did something in the minors, even if it was as intangible as "confidence in his fastball" something changed beyond "more major league innings" in my opinion.

[Soul]

Have any of you heard that guy who comes on Murph every week? I think he's from Baseball InfoSolutions, or something like that.

 

Anyway, he thinks Hill is going to blow up this year. Apparently James does too.

 

That does it. Hill will officially rock this season. Can there be any doubt?

 

Blow up as in have a huge year ---- or ---- Blow up as in completely fall apart?

 

Blow up as in have a monster season, of course.

[Laura]

That guy is John Dewan; it's what the first post in this thread is about.

[don_kessinger_was_good]

Restated for emphasis--if either of Wade Miller or Mark Prior is healthy and effective, the Cubs will likely have the best starting pitching in the division certainly, and outside the Dodgers, probably the best in the NL. I believe this to be the case even if the Mets sign Zito. Absent Prior returning to his earlier form, the Cubs will lack a real #2, this is true. But the rotation will potentially have as many as four #3's, I could live with that. And the bullpen will be solid, potentially great if Wood turns into the next Eric Gagne.

 

Seems like all the best talent anymore, with a few exceptions, is in the AL, and that's fine by me. We'll take what help we can get!

[C.C.]

Restated for emphasis--if either of Wade Miller or Mark Prior is healthy and effective, the Cubs will likely have the best starting pitching in the division certainly, and outside the Dodgers, probably the best in the NL. I believe this to be the case even if the Mets sign Zito. Absent Prior returning to his earlier form, the Cubs will lack a real #2, this is true. But the rotation will potentially have as many as four #3's, I could live with that. And the bullpen will be solid, potentially great if Wood turns into the next Eric Gagne.

 

Seems like all the best talent anymore, with a few exceptions, is in the AL, and that's fine by me. We'll take what help we can get!

 

I think they have the best rotation in the Central with or without Miller and Prior.

[UK1679666180]

I'd go with STL over the Cubs. If StL does bring back Weaver, the Cubs would need a healthy Prior to have the best rotation in the NL Central.

 

I would take Carpenter, Reyes, and Wainwright over Z, Lilly, and Hill both in cost and production.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

I'd go with STL over the Cubs. If StL does bring back Weaver, the Cubs would need a healthy Prior to have the best rotation in the NL Central.

 

I would take Carpenter, Reyes, and Wainwright over Z, Lilly, and Hill both in cost and production.

 

In production, really? Reyes and Wainwright definitely have talent, but Reyes wasn't as good as Hill last year, and Wainwright hasn't started in a year(and when he did he wasn't all that great at AAA).

[UK1679666180]

Yeah, I think Carpenter will be slightly better than Z, nothing that would give either side a sign advantage.

 

Reyes like Hill had to do when thru his rookie struggles, I definitely think his ceiling is higher than Hill's and production will be similar. I think his sinker will be more crisp than it was last year for Reyes. I think he'll learn to use his changeup more and take advantage of it more.

 

As far as Wainwright, I expect him to outperform Lilly. I think Wainwright will be in the low 4s with Lilly in the low to mid 4s. His endurance will be key as well as his ability to locate pitches to LH'ers.

[C.C.]

Yeah, I think Carpenter will be slightly better than Z, nothing that would give either side a sign advantage.

 

Reyes like Hill had to do when thru his rookie struggles, I definitely think his ceiling is higher than Hill's and production will be similar. I think his sinker will be more crisp than it was last year for Reyes. I think he'll learn to use his changeup more and take advantage of it more.

 

As far as Wainwright, I expect him to outperform Lilly. I think Wainwright will be in the low 4s with Lilly in the low to mid 4s. His endurance will be key as well as his ability to locate pitches to LH'ers.

 

I really don't see where Reyes has a higher ceiling then Hill?

[Soul]

That guy is John Dewan; it's what the first post in this thread is about.

 

Thanks. I didn't click the link :oops:

[UK1679666180]

Better FB, better change, better command, better control.

 

Hill has the better breaking pitch and will get more Ks and less hits b/c of it but Reyes can make up for that by walking fewer.

[Handlebar McSkullet]

If the brewers sign suppan, the brewers will have a better rotation than either the cubs or the cardinals

[mg420]

Yeah, I think Carpenter will be slightly better than Z, nothing that would give either side a sign advantage.

 

Reyes like Hill had to do when thru his rookie struggles, I definitely think his ceiling is higher than Hill's and production will be similar. I think his sinker will be more crisp than it was last year for Reyes. I think he'll learn to use his changeup more and take advantage of it more.

 

As far as Wainwright, I expect him to outperform Lilly. I think Wainwright will be in the low 4s with Lilly in the low to mid 4s. His endurance will be key as well as his ability to locate pitches to LH'ers.

 

isnt wainwright the cards closer now? i thought they were going to keep him there because of his performance in the playoffs.

[BigbadB]

Yeah, I think Carpenter will be slightly better than Z, nothing that would give either side a sign advantage.

 

Reyes like Hill had to do when thru his rookie struggles, I definitely think his ceiling is higher than Hill's and production will be similar. I think his sinker will be more crisp than it was last year for Reyes. I think he'll learn to use his changeup more and take advantage of it more.

 

As far as Wainwright, I expect him to outperform Lilly. I think Wainwright will be in the low 4s with Lilly in the low to mid 4s. His endurance will be key as well as his ability to locate pitches to LH'ers.

 

isnt wainwright the cards closer now? i thought they were going to keep him there because of his performance in the playoffs.

 

If Izzy proves healthy, Wainwright will likely move back to the rotation.

[elinas]

Yeah, I think Carpenter will be slightly better than Z, nothing that would give either side a sign advantage.

 

Reyes like Hill had to do when thru his rookie struggles, I definitely think his ceiling is higher than Hill's and production will be similar. I think his sinker will be more crisp than it was last year for Reyes. I think he'll learn to use his changeup more and take advantage of it more.

 

As far as Wainwright, I expect him to outperform Lilly. I think Wainwright will be in the low 4s with Lilly in the low to mid 4s. His endurance will be key as well as his ability to locate pitches to LH'ers.

 

isnt wainwright the cards closer now? i thought they were going to keep him there because of his performance in the playoffs.

 

If Izzy proves healthy, Wainwright will likely move back to the rotation.

That's exactly what the plan is and all indications are that Izzy will be healthy.

[Backtobanks]

I'd go with STL over the Cubs. If StL does bring back Weaver, the Cubs would need a healthy Prior to have the best rotation in the NL Central.

 

I would take Carpenter, Reyes, and Wainwright over Z, Lilly, and Hill both in cost and production.

 

After the Cubs have spent the money, I'm only interested in production and not the cost.

[UK1679666180]

Which I still give the edge to STL. Of course, salaries carry over as well.

[Bruno7481]

I'd love to see Hill establish himself as a successful major league starter. But despite his succes in the 2nd half of last year, eveyime I think of him I can't shake the images of all of the poor performances prior to that.

 

I'm not expecting him to pitch as well as he did in the 2nd half, but I hope he is good enough to be a solid #3 or #4.

[AlwaysaCub]

I'd go with STL over the Cubs. If StL does bring back Weaver, the Cubs would need a healthy Prior to have the best rotation in the NL Central.

 

I would take Carpenter, Reyes, and Wainwright over Z, Lilly, and Hill both in cost and production.

 

After the Cubs have spent the money, I'm only interested in production and not the cost.

 

Despite his playoff games, you do realize that Reyes put up an ERA over 5 this season, right? Hill's ERA, including 4 months of junk, was a full run lower.

 

We have also yet to see Wainwright make the transition back to starter.

 

I like the Cubs.

[NorthsideAvenger]

I'd go with STL over the Cubs. If StL does bring back Weaver, the Cubs would need a healthy Prior to have the best rotation in the NL Central.

 

I would take Carpenter, Reyes, and Wainwright over Z, Lilly, and Hill both in cost and production.

 

After the Cubs have spent the money, I'm only interested in production and not the cost.

 

Despite his playoff games, you do realize that Reyes put up an ERA over 5 this season, right? Hill's ERA, including 4 months of junk, was a full run lower.

 

We have also yet to see Wainwright make the transition back to starter.

 

I like the Cubs.

 

I still think Wainwright's future is as closer, and the only reason why he is being mention as a starter candidate, is because of the lack of options for starters. So in reality nobody can compare Carpenter/Reyes/Wainwright to Z/Lilly/Hill, cause the Cards top 3 have more questions---excluding Carp, of course---then the Cubs Top 3. And if the Cubs get a healthy and productive Mark Prior (I know, I know) then there is no comparasion.