Rich Hill & '07 Projections -Bill James Handbook (Merged

[10man]

I totally find it funny that everyone in all of Cubdom has embraced the mantra of not counting on Prior anymore. If Mark ever read NSBB he would be would be working his butt off (and he probably is already) to prove that he is and will be a reliable and outstanding MLB pitcher for years to come.

[NoDak]

A healthy, or even 80% Mark Prior could win 15-20 games and have an ERA in the low 3's upper 2's. I think that would move CHC to top rotation in the league (Prior, Z, Hill, Lilly, Marquis/Miller...) Of course, that is assuming a healthy Prior. Big assumption

[dew1679666265]

I'd love to see Hill establish himself as a successful major league starter. But despite his succes in the 2nd half of last year, eveyime I think of him I can't shake the images of all of the poor performances prior to that.

 

I'm not expecting him to pitch as well as he did in the 2nd half, but I hope he is good enough to be a solid #3 or #4.

 

I have a feeling he'll start off slow but will pick things up the more starts he gets. I think Lou will stick with him all year unless he begins as bad or worse as he was in early 2006 and 2005. I don't think he'll ever consistently touch that production again, but I don't expect late last season's production early this year either.

[nilodnayr]

I totally find it funny that everyone in all of Cubdom has embraced the mantra of not counting on Prior anymore. If Mark ever read NSBB he would be would be working his butt off (and he probably is already) to prove that he is and will be a reliable and outstanding MLB pitcher for years to come.

 

Its really not funny at all. For the last few years the cubs have been very secretive about injuries and have always publically said that the pitchers are fine when in reality we have gotten very little out of Prior and Wood the last few years. Sooooo, when the cubs publically say they are not counting on Prior to contribute to the rotation, how else are fans supposed to react?

[UBlink]

I totally find it funny that everyone in all of Cubdom has embraced the mantra of not counting on Prior anymore. If Mark ever read NSBB he would be would be working his butt off (and he probably is already) to prove that he is and will be a reliable and outstanding MLB pitcher for years to come.

 

Its really not funny at all. For the last few years the cubs have been very secretive about injuries and have always publically said that the pitchers are fine when in reality we have gotten very little out of Prior and Wood the last few years. Sooooo, when the cubs publically say they are not counting on Prior to contribute to the rotation, how else are fans supposed to react?

 

It would seem to be quite reasonable to assume the opposite of whatever management says.

[Soul]

If the brewers sign suppan, the brewers will have a better rotation than either the cubs or the cardinals

 

Why is Suppan the tipping point? He's not all that great. If the Brewers can't get Sheets back on track, their rotation will have issues that Suppan certainly can't fix.

 

Much the same as the Cubs if they can't get Prior on track.

[UMFan83]

A healthy, or even 80% Mark Prior could win 15-20 games and have an ERA in the low 3's upper 2's. I think that would move CHC to top rotation in the league (Prior, Z, Hill, Lilly, Marquis/Miller...) Of course, that is assuming a healthy Prior. Big assumption

 

He could, but how can you assume that when he's only done that once in his career? Albeit, he hasn't really been healthy since then, but still 1 year is a small sample size, especially after 3 years of not pitching regularly.

[C.C.]

I totally find it funny that everyone in all of Cubdom has embraced the mantra of not counting on Prior anymore. If Mark ever read NSBB he would be would be working his butt off (and he probably is already) to prove that he is and will be a reliable and outstanding MLB pitcher for years to come.

 

What's so funny about it? So I take it you are confident that he's coming back healthy? It's not a mantra, its reality.

[NoDak]

A healthy, or even 80% Mark Prior could win 15-20 games and have an ERA in the low 3's upper 2's. I think that would move CHC to top rotation in the league (Prior, Z, Hill, Lilly, Marquis/Miller...) Of course, that is assuming a healthy Prior. Big assumption

 

He could, but how can you assume that when he's only done that once in his career? Albeit, he hasn't really been healthy since then, but still 1 year is a small sample size, especially after 3 years of not pitching regularly.

 

I agree that one season is not much to judge from, but there are a couple of other reasons I believe this (and by the way, I am thinking that Prior at 80% would not be THAT good):

1. That season was a full season and was over 200 IP. While saying "1 season" is a small sample size, it was a decent sample size for a season and it was dominant.

2. Very few people were surprised by that season. It was what most people were expecting from him. He was highly touted by scouts and "stat guys" alike.

3. That was his "healthiest season" (he did miss time that year too) so I feel comfortable saying that, if healthy, Prior would be dominant again.

4. He is 26 years old. It would be different if his "breakout" year took place at age 35. Why would people on here be so high on Rich Hill after a half season of solid pitching but not Mark Prior after a full season of very solid pitching (looking at the splits there is no comparison between Hill's 2nd half and Prior's in 2003)? Prior knows how to pitch. If he can avoid the "freak injuries (2x injured on basepaths, once hit on pitching elbow with a line-drive) I think he will be solid.

 

Let me make one thing clear. I am not saying that Prior will be healthy this year or that he will be this dominant. If you re-read the first sentence of my original post it said "a healthy, or even 80%, Mark Prior could..." And, again, I am thinking that the 80% version would be at the low end of that prediction.

[cubfever7]

"Now, if it was more gradual I would be inclined to agree with you. If he still had 1/3 (or more) of his starts be reversions back to the former Rich Hill then I would be more inclined to think of it as him gaining experience. But that dramatic of a turn around tells me that he actually did something in the minors, even if it was as intangible as "confidence in his fastball" something changed beyond "more major league innings" in my opinion."

 

The infamous AJ gets his come uppance game happened on May 20th. On May 30th, I sat in the 1st row next to the visiting dugout in Nashville and watched Hill throw 7 innings with 14 k's, 2 hits and no walks. This was against a Nashville lineup who's first 6 hitters were hitting and average of .326 at the time and included a number of players who ended up logging significant MLB playing time.

 

Early in the game as Rich came off ther mound and entered the dugout right next to my seat, I said "you didn't say a single thing wrong about that AJ incident." He didn't wink or anything in return but barely nodded acknowledging that he heard me. Baker in his infinite wisdom roundly critcized Hill for basically supporting his catcher and then sent him to Iowa.

 

Hill rallied the whole Iowa club that night and I was witness to seeing Theriot and Coats at their best as well. One of the position players that night commented directly to me how the current regime in Chicago really didn't know how to handle the talent they had in the minors. I won't say his name (for his own good), but i was amazed at what he said.

 

I totally agree with you--Hill wasn't an aberration, he has made a complete turn around and Hendry to his credit did not trade him when alot was being offered for him. Had he been handled differently, we'd have seen huge MLB numbers from before we did. Rothschild worries me--hopefully he'll coach differently under Lou.

[cubfever7]

I'd go with STL over the Cubs. If StL does bring back Weaver, the Cubs would need a healthy Prior to have the best rotation in the NL Central.

 

I would take Carpenter, Reyes, and Wainwright over Z, Lilly, and Hill both in cost and production.

 

I'd love to delude myself into thinking the Cubs have the best pitching in the NL Central, but as of Christmas eve, in my book, that honor clearly belongs to the Milwaukee Brewers. Take a hard look at Capuano's #'s last year..combine those with a full year of Sheets, throw in Suppan, Bush and Vargas and the Cubs have a VERY formidable foe in their division that's geographically North of them. This is also a staff that has 2 pitchers in the pen who have made AS teams as closers (Turnbow and Cordero) along with some good looking youngsters and holdovers....our pen may have a slight edge, but it's real close.

[Soul]

I'd go with STL over the Cubs. If StL does bring back Weaver, the Cubs would need a healthy Prior to have the best rotation in the NL Central.

 

I would take Carpenter, Reyes, and Wainwright over Z, Lilly, and Hill both in cost and production.

 

I'd love to delude myself into thinking the Cubs have the best pitching in the NL Central, but as of Christmas eve, in my book, that honor clearly belongs to the Milwaukee Brewers. Take a hard look at Capuano's #'s last year..combine those with a full year of Sheets, throw in Suppan, Bush and Vargas and the Cubs have a VERY formidable foe in their division that's geographically North of them. This is also a staff that has 2 pitchers in the pen who have made AS teams as closers (Turnbow and Cordero) along with some good looking youngsters and holdovers....our pen may have a slight edge, but it's real close.

 

Well, maybe you're right.

 

Who knows, maybe if Prior comes back strong and Hill breaks out we'll be OK.

 

I don't know----the Brewers always seem to pull a fade to finish the season, and I wouldn't count on Sheets for an entire year. His rehab didn't exactly go as smoothly as the Crew was hoping.

 

We'll see. Everyone's undefeated right now :wink:

[UK1679666180]

I'd go with STL over the Cubs. If StL does bring back Weaver, the Cubs would need a healthy Prior to have the best rotation in the NL Central.

 

I would take Carpenter, Reyes, and Wainwright over Z, Lilly, and Hill both in cost and production.

 

I'd love to delude myself into thinking the Cubs have the best pitching in the NL Central, but as of Christmas eve, in my book, that honor clearly belongs to the Milwaukee Brewers. Take a hard look at Capuano's #'s last year..combine those with a full year of Sheets, throw in Suppan, Bush and Vargas and the Cubs have a VERY formidable foe in their division that's geographically North of them. This is also a staff that has 2 pitchers in the pen who have made AS teams as closers (Turnbow and Cordero) along with some good looking youngsters and holdovers....our pen may have a slight edge, but it's real close.

 

Welcome to the board.

 

Returning from injuries will determine that as far as Sheets and Prior. I think Sheets is a better bet at this stage, but I expect Bush and Suppan to be similar but not as productive as Hill and Lilly. If it's Sheets and Capuano, the Cubs don't have a #2 like Capuano, but Z will outproduce Sheets.

 

I think all 3 are very close.

[nilodnayr]

I'd go with STL over the Cubs. If StL does bring back Weaver, the Cubs would need a healthy Prior to have the best rotation in the NL Central.

 

I would take Carpenter, Reyes, and Wainwright over Z, Lilly, and Hill both in cost and production.

 

I'd love to delude myself into thinking the Cubs have the best pitching in the NL Central, but as of Christmas eve, in my book, that honor clearly belongs to the Milwaukee Brewers. Take a hard look at Capuano's #'s last year..combine those with a full year of Sheets, throw in Suppan, Bush and Vargas and the Cubs have a VERY formidable foe in their division that's geographically North of them. This is also a staff that has 2 pitchers in the pen who have made AS teams as closers (Turnbow and Cordero) along with some good looking youngsters and holdovers....our pen may have a slight edge, but it's real close.

 

Well, maybe you're right.

 

Who knows, maybe if Prior comes back strong and Hill breaks out we'll be OK.

 

I don't know----the Brewers always seem to pull a fade to finish the season, and I wouldn't count on Sheets for an entire year. His rehab didn't exactly go as smoothly as the Crew was hoping.

 

We'll see. Everyone's undefeated right now :wink:

 

All it will take is a little luck :wink:

[nilodnayr]

I'd go with STL over the Cubs. If StL does bring back Weaver, the Cubs would need a healthy Prior to have the best rotation in the NL Central.

 

I would take Carpenter, Reyes, and Wainwright over Z, Lilly, and Hill both in cost and production.

 

I'd love to delude myself into thinking the Cubs have the best pitching in the NL Central, but as of Christmas eve, in my book, that honor clearly belongs to the Milwaukee Brewers. Take a hard look at Capuano's #'s last year..combine those with a full year of Sheets, throw in Suppan, Bush and Vargas and the Cubs have a VERY formidable foe in their division that's geographically North of them. This is also a staff that has 2 pitchers in the pen who have made AS teams as closers (Turnbow and Cordero) along with some good looking youngsters and holdovers....our pen may have a slight edge, but it's real close.

 

Well, maybe you're right.

 

Who knows, maybe if Prior comes back strong and Hill breaks out we'll be OK.

 

I don't know----the Brewers always seem to pull a fade to finish the season, and I wouldn't count on Sheets for an entire year. His rehab didn't exactly go as smoothly as the Crew was hoping.

 

We'll see. Everyone's undefeated right now :wink:

 

All it will take is a little luck :wink:

[Soul]

I'd go with STL over the Cubs. If StL does bring back Weaver, the Cubs would need a healthy Prior to have the best rotation in the NL Central.

 

I would take Carpenter, Reyes, and Wainwright over Z, Lilly, and Hill both in cost and production.

 

I'd love to delude myself into thinking the Cubs have the best pitching in the NL Central, but as of Christmas eve, in my book, that honor clearly belongs to the Milwaukee Brewers. Take a hard look at Capuano's #'s last year..combine those with a full year of Sheets, throw in Suppan, Bush and Vargas and the Cubs have a VERY formidable foe in their division that's geographically North of them. This is also a staff that has 2 pitchers in the pen who have made AS teams as closers (Turnbow and Cordero) along with some good looking youngsters and holdovers....our pen may have a slight edge, but it's real close.

 

Well, maybe you're right.

 

Who knows, maybe if Prior comes back strong and Hill breaks out we'll be OK.

 

I don't know----the Brewers always seem to pull a fade to finish the season, and I wouldn't count on Sheets for an entire year. His rehab didn't exactly go as smoothly as the Crew was hoping.

 

We'll see. Everyone's undefeated right now :wink:

 

All it will take is a little luck :wink:

 

LOL. How about the Cubs start making their own luck. Then I'll be happy.

[cubfever7]

"Welcome to the board.

 

Returning from injuries will determine that as far as Sheets and Prior. I think Sheets is a better bet at this stage, but I expect Bush and Suppan to be similar but not as productive as Hill and Lilly. If it's Sheets and Capuano, the Cubs don't have a #2 like Capuano, but Z will outproduce Sheets.

 

I think all 3 are very close."

 

 

Thanks for the welcome to the board UK--a class gesture on your part. It's funny, my history shows I joined about 3 years ago but these are my first few posts. That stuff they say about mixing crack and tequila must be true. I'm missing three years! (just kidding)