cubfever7

"It is also worth considering that Hendry really needed to clear out the 40 man roster of pitching. If he would have still had Nolasco and Pinto to protect this year the Cubs definitely would have lost someone of value. " WOW--great point Iceman. I had never considered the size of the 40 man in the long term equation. I have a soft spot for Nolasco and will differ with you for now on his long term outlook. Pinto's rep in my view is only by what I've heard; we sort of talked last summer with the limitations of his command of English and mine of Spanish, but he is truly a character. He didn't get in the game when i saw him though. Are you also known in UFC circles as Chuck Liddell?

Isn't one of the "5 tools" defense. I don't think Soriano really has much of that tool. My understanding is he is a trainwreck at 2B and serviceable in the outfield. Yea that was a liberal application of 5 tools from what i know of Soriano's D as well. They both have great arms and foot speed..fast bats and in Alf's case power. We can only hope/assume that the power will come for Felix, but he does have a real nice glove in the OF. I did see him make an Alou/Sosa type poor decison on a cutoff man one time in trying to show off his gun, but he's quite young.

It looks like we'll all get a chance to find out this ST on Felix. I knew his 2nd half in 2006 was much improved but had no idea it was to the tune of a .900 OPS. My fear would still be that he faced inferior AAA pitching in the 2nd half as the creme da la creme pitchers had been called up to MLB and that he'll be embarassed by a steady diet of great breaking stuff at the next level. He reminds me of Soriano a little as far as the body type, bat speed and the 5 tools. It'll fall to Sweet Lou probably to see if he's being rushed or not. I wonder what Ernie would say on New Year's Day--"Cub fans will be in heaven, in the year 2007."

That's not true at all. There's debate on how ready he is for this year, but after a second year at AAA there's an extremely high likelihood of him being ready to contribute for the big club. I admit the bolt of lightning miracle line is a bit of hyperbole on my part, but essentially it looks like we agree. You're saying he needs 1 more year at AAA and I'm saying not ready before 2008....they're the same thing..no? I saw him play over a 1/2 dozen games in person in 2006 and it was toward the first part of the season, but he wasn't really close to ready. He played better in the 2nd half, but i think is right at about a .200 BA in winter ball. Not a good sign for a young latin player hitting against less than MLB quality pitching.

Agreed. That was a bad, desperate trade. Not only Nolasco, but Pinto will more than likely end up being every bit as big a blunder. We have a ton of question marks at the #5 starter slot with Prior, Miller, Cotts or Marshall. For all I know Guzman will all of a sudden snap out of it and realize his potential. But I can guarantee we'd have had no problems worrying about the 5 hole or maybe even wouldn't have signed Marquis if not for they horrific lose/lose trade. I can rattle off a lot of Hendry moves that i liked and until that Pierre mess i always thought protecting Macias insrtead of Sisco was his worst move, but nope. Losing those 3 young arms for NOTHING was simply awful. I am actually quite pleased that we spent money rather than leveraged away any more siginificant farm pieces, but I still await with baited breath to see what is done about an impact CF. I don't think some unfilled potential, claimed off the scrap heap type gets it done. There are few options out there, but someone out of perhaps the Dodger or Brewer orgs may be helpful. Both seem to have a surplus of OF's with good upside. Repko or Corey Hart would be awesome--i'd even be happy with Brady Clark for a short term--he's 33--but very serviceable. Maybe a 3-way with another team could land him...the Brewers look loaded in the OF with T Gwynn Jr, Laynce Nix, Mench, Hart, Clark, Jenkins, Anderson and Gross. Even Nix would work for me--saw him in AAA for a couple games right after TX traded him and he flat killed the ball. Bill Hall will more than likely land in the OF as well... Pie needs a lightning bolt miracle to be ready before 2008...he doesn't seem to be even close right now.

I firmly believe Ron Santo's case for the HOF to be very strong and if one goes strictly by how a player dominated a particular decade, Grace's case at least bares a real hard look. We all know he had more hits than any other player in the 90's while winning four gold gloves and making three all star teams. He was one of the 5 toughest to strikeout 11 times, but also was 2nd in the league in outs once and first in hitting into dp's. He never finished higher than 13th (1995) in MVP voting and that was the only year he broke the top 10 in slugging. The lack of long ball is what really hurts him and probably always will. Mazeroski was ML player of the year in 1960, had 8 gold gloves and 7 all star teams...but has only 1957 as a year to break top 20 in MVP voting. From what I can recall reading, Maz was well liked by all and was similar to Grace insofar as being tough to strikeout. Ron Santo: 9 all star games--5 gold gloves--was top 10 in MVP votes four times, with 5 times in the top 10 in slugging including 2nd in 1964--one of 2 season where he was probably league MVP if modern metrics are applied. He led the league in OBP twice..triples once , walks 4 x's, sac. flies 3 x's and to be fair, the dubious GIDP twice. He still holds fielding records at third to my knowledge for chances accepted and either assists or putouts in a season. Maz however hit one of the only walk off WS homers and Santo never saw a post season pitch and was not well liked whatsoever in the Northeast. To me, the post season absence and disdain for the Mets and their writers is what has killed him and what has elevated Maz.

Sorry for the triple post there all, impatience on my part. Hitting submit didn't yield instantaneous results (or any results at all for that matter) and my trigger finger got itchy. Kinda like the guy that shot Tank's bodyguard. Anyone know how i can reduce the size of the Santo/Sandberg photo? I plugged in the url in my profile and the pic came out HUGE. I don't want to waste any more network resources than need be--and to me the pic looks a little dumb being that big.

My apologies there evil twin. For some reason, i was thinking a split of 45 was some type of benchmark, but a cursory glance at the #'s confirms what you say. Bear in mind though, this thread is entitled the "optimistic view of offseason acquisitions." So maybe i'm a little euphoric, what the hey?

I don't own a copy of the fielding bible yet, but do have the 2007 Baseball Handbook on the way which apparently has some new fielding metrics in it. Until then I'm relegated to relying on ESPN's ZR and RF for stat based judgements and what I see on DeRosa is encouraging. He's played a little less that what would equal a full season at 2B in his career with more playing time logged at 3B and a nearly equal amount at SS. If one were to apply his career defensive #'s at 2B to the MLB totals at that position for 2006, DeRosa ranks 6th in zone rating ahead of players like Utley by 18 points and WAY ahead of players like Belliard, Adam Kennedy, Giles, Loretta and many others. In range factor he finishes 8th again spanking the same group of players and including Iguchi and Biggio this time. His career SS #'s vs 2006 MLB SS's would have placed him 4th in range factor and a respectable 8th in ZR. Even his career #'s in RF look pretty decent where in 2006 he'd have finished ahead of Vlad, Abreu, Ordonez, Dye and Francouer in zone rating. Offensively, his OBP for his career is a very nice 58 points higher than his BA...there is room for optimism with this acquisition folks. Some said Hendry was playing drunken sailor, but maybe not on this guy.

Right after the Cubs acquired Izturis, various pundits were lining up around the block to extoll how great his glovework was before his injuires. I know this brand of hometown published hype is typical after an acquisition, but in Izzy's case I gotta say that it has some merit as he had the best zone rating of any SS in MLB in 2004..his range was decidely average, but the guy can be a real Wilson Pickit (sp mine) and with decent D at 2b and the return of DLee, I like our chances to play pretty soundly in the IF.... Center is what concerns me--Barrett will probably always be mediocre no matter how hard he works and the corners should be passable.

"Welcome to the board. Returning from injuries will determine that as far as Sheets and Prior. I think Sheets is a better bet at this stage, but I expect Bush and Suppan to be similar but not as productive as Hill and Lilly. If it's Sheets and Capuano, the Cubs don't have a #2 like Capuano, but Z will outproduce Sheets. I think all 3 are very close." Thanks for the welcome to the board UK--a class gesture on your part. It's funny, my history shows I joined about 3 years ago but these are my first few posts. That stuff they say about mixing crack and tequila must be true. I'm missing three years! (just kidding)

2B/SS Theriot LF Murton 1B Lee 3B Ramirez RF Soriano CF Jones CA Barrett SS/2B Izturis/DeRosa I like your lineup. We can only hope that a better CF option emerges, but in my book, you have the lineup set as I would. The problems are that we have to assume DeRosa will get a more prominent role than platooning with Izturis. Lou has been heard to say that Alf likes to leadoff--the guy strikes ou a ton, so i figure we want him to see more fastballs. It's an interesting argument as to whether that happens in front of or after Lee and Ramirez. But Murton and Theriot at the top look to be the best way to have opportunities for the boppers. Pie is REALLY struggling in winter ball--I've seen him play in person a number of times and he was nowhere close to ready last summer, but that can change quickly. It looks like it hasn't though.

I'd love to delude myself into thinking the Cubs have the best pitching in the NL Central, but as of Christmas eve, in my book, that honor clearly belongs to the Milwaukee Brewers. Take a hard look at Capuano's #'s last year..combine those with a full year of Sheets, throw in Suppan, Bush and Vargas and the Cubs have a VERY formidable foe in their division that's geographically North of them. This is also a staff that has 2 pitchers in the pen who have made AS teams as closers (Turnbow and Cordero) along with some good looking youngsters and holdovers....our pen may have a slight edge, but it's real close.

"Now, if it was more gradual I would be inclined to agree with you. If he still had 1/3 (or more) of his starts be reversions back to the former Rich Hill then I would be more inclined to think of it as him gaining experience. But that dramatic of a turn around tells me that he actually did something in the minors, even if it was as intangible as "confidence in his fastball" something changed beyond "more major league innings" in my opinion." The infamous AJ gets his come uppance game happened on May 20th. On May 30th, I sat in the 1st row next to the visiting dugout in Nashville and watched Hill throw 7 innings with 14 k's, 2 hits and no walks. This was against a Nashville lineup who's first 6 hitters were hitting and average of .326 at the time and included a number of players who ended up logging significant MLB playing time. Early in the game as Rich came off ther mound and entered the dugout right next to my seat, I said "you didn't say a single thing wrong about that AJ incident." He didn't wink or anything in return but barely nodded acknowledging that he heard me. Baker in his infinite wisdom roundly critcized Hill for basically supporting his catcher and then sent him to Iowa. Hill rallied the whole Iowa club that night and I was witness to seeing Theriot and Coats at their best as well. One of the position players that night commented directly to me how the current regime in Chicago really didn't know how to handle the talent they had in the minors. I won't say his name (for his own good), but i was amazed at what he said. I totally agree with you--Hill wasn't an aberration, he has made a complete turn around and Hendry to his credit did not trade him when alot was being offered for him. Had he been handled differently, we'd have seen huge MLB numbers from before we did. Rothschild worries me--hopefully he'll coach differently under Lou.