Neal Cotts for David Aardsma

[Lefty]

I was never confident with Aardsma and I don't think he would have made the bullpen this year.

 

 

I thought Aardsma was outstanding in his last tour with the Cubs. I guess I should check the stats to confirm that. But this isn't the kind of deal that is likely to make or break any of-season.

[Soul]

I'm OK with it. Cotts is young, has succeeded in the majors before, and done it on a World Series champ.

 

He likely just needs a little rest after a long year in '05 and first half of '06.

 

Aardsma hasn't shown he'll be able to succeed at all, ever.

[baseball7897]

Another good move by Hendry.

[Backtobanks]

So for all the talk about making him a starter, I find the ESPN insider stats interesting.

 

According to their splits, Cotts threw 80% fastballs, 14% sliders, 4% changeups, and 3% curves (something must be rounded to get 101%). His numbers go 76/19/2 (fastball/slider/changeup) against lefties.

 

By way of comparison, Rich Hill is listed as 70% fastballs, 25% curves, 1% sliders, 4% changes. That sounds pretty reasonable. Ohman is 50% fastballs, 47% sliders.

 

There's probably a pretty good margin of error, especially with curves & sliders. I'd expect that it would be pretty decent with fastballs & changeups - and maybe some sliders get marked as changeups depending on the speed difference.

 

If those stats are to be believed, Cotts is barely a two pitch pitcher when he's coming out of the pen, and his best pitch (the changeup, according to the earlier posts) was a total afterthought.

 

Zambrano throws 70% fastballs, but his fastball is a different animal. If Cotts is really this much of a fastball pitcher, the prospects for the rotation would seem dim.

 

Those stats reflect him as a reliever. He might use more pitches as a starter. Most relievers get by with 2 good pitches.

[Iceblink]

So for all the talk about making him a starter, I find the ESPN insider stats interesting.

 

According to their splits, Cotts threw 80% fastballs, 14% sliders, 4% changeups, and 3% curves (something must be rounded to get 101%). His numbers go 76/19/2 (fastball/slider/changeup) against lefties.

 

By way of comparison, Rich Hill is listed as 70% fastballs, 25% curves, 1% sliders, 4% changes. That sounds pretty reasonable. Ohman is 50% fastballs, 47% sliders.

 

There's probably a pretty good margin of error, especially with curves & sliders. I'd expect that it would be pretty decent with fastballs & changeups - and maybe some sliders get marked as changeups depending on the speed difference.

 

If those stats are to be believed, Cotts is barely a two pitch pitcher when he's coming out of the pen, and his best pitch (the changeup, according to the earlier posts) was a total afterthought.

 

Zambrano throws 70% fastballs, but his fastball is a different animal. If Cotts is really this much of a fastball pitcher, the prospects for the rotation would seem dim.

 

Those stats reflect him as a reliever. He might use more pitches as a starter. Most relievers get by with 2 good pitches.

 

Sure...but it would seem to discount the changeup as a good pitch. I wouldn't think he scrap his best out pitch (which is how some posts have described his changeup) just because he's coming out of the pen. If it's effective at all, seems like he'd use it.

[JeffH]

So for all the talk about making him a starter, I find the ESPN insider stats interesting.

 

According to their splits, Cotts threw 80% fastballs, 14% sliders, 4% changeups, and 3% curves (something must be rounded to get 101%). His numbers go 76/19/2 (fastball/slider/changeup) against lefties.

 

By way of comparison, Rich Hill is listed as 70% fastballs, 25% curves, 1% sliders, 4% changes. That sounds pretty reasonable. Ohman is 50% fastballs, 47% sliders.

 

There's probably a pretty good margin of error, especially with curves & sliders. I'd expect that it would be pretty decent with fastballs & changeups - and maybe some sliders get marked as changeups depending on the speed difference.

 

If those stats are to be believed, Cotts is barely a two pitch pitcher when he's coming out of the pen, and his best pitch (the changeup, according to the earlier posts) was a total afterthought.

 

Zambrano throws 70% fastballs, but his fastball is a different animal. If Cotts is really this much of a fastball pitcher, the prospects for the rotation would seem dim.

 

Those stats reflect him as a reliever. He might use more pitches as a starter. Most relievers get by with 2 good pitches.

 

Sure...but it would seem to discount the changeup as a good pitch. I wouldn't think he scrap his best out pitch (which is how some posts have described his changeup) just because he's coming out of the pen. If it's effective at all, seems like he'd use it.

 

Except that a lefty change-up is generally less effective on a lefty hitter than the hard stuff (see Remlinger, Mike).

[BigbadB]

Don't have time to read the whole thread and I'm absolutely amazed that every time I walk away from my computer for 5 minutes, more news echoes througout Cubville.

 

I like the move. Aardsma didn't do enough to impress me. He's serviceable, which can be said of just about any reliever.

 

LOOGY's seem to garner lots of attention. If this deal was to set up a Westbrook deal, I'm thrilled.

 

There always seems to be a lack of LOOGY's on the market and everyone wants one. If it can net something good down the road this offseason with Eyre or Cotts, I'm cool.

[USSoccer]

Don't have time to read the whole thread and I'm absolutely amazed that every time I walk away from my computer for 5 minutes, more news echoes througout Cubville.

 

.

 

It's been nice to have actual moves to talk about nearly every day the last week. :D

[Ding Dong Johnson]

Don't have time to read the whole thread and I'm absolutely amazed that every time I walk away from my computer for 5 minutes, more news echoes througout Cubville.

 

I like the move. Aardsma didn't do enough to impress me. He's serviceable, which can be said of just about any reliever.

 

Agreed, although I think Aardsma could grow into more than just serviceable. A nasty offspeed pitch and control of that heater would turn him into a pretty dominant closer.

[Pinktermite]

Forgive my dumbness, but, what's a "LOOGY"???

[Ding Dong Johnson]

Forgive my dumbness, but, what's a "LOOGY"???

 

Lefty One Out GuY

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Forgive my dumbness, but, what's a "LOOGY"???

 

Lefty One Out GuY

[Pinktermite]

Thanks man

[A New Era]

Forgive my dumbness, but, what's a "LOOGY"???

 

It's a left handed specialist designed to get out lefty batters. And you usually only use him for 1 at-bat - 1 full inning, no more.

[fromthestretch]

Aardsma hasn't shown he'll be able to succeed at all, ever.

 

Except for in the second half of 2006, when he posted a 3.12 ERA and struck out 35 in 34.2 innings, while holding opponents to a .198/.277/.347 line.

 

I'm not saying that I oppose the trade, but Aardsma certainly showed that he can be a successful reliever.

[danonwaveland]

Wouldn't it be great if Cotts became the answer to the following trivia question:

 

What player has won World Series championships with both Chicago teams?

 

Yeah, right. . .

[Shilzzz]

from the 2006 baseball prospectus on neal cotts

 

with his facial scruff and longish hair, he has considerably more upside as a South Side sex symbol than Scott Podsednik. That's assuming Cotts doesn't regress to pitching like Kyle Farnsworth in a day game, and PECOTA is not so certain about that. Note that Cotts' strikeout, walk, and groundball numbers were virtually unchanged between 2004 and 2005, but his VORP jumped from 2.2 to 23.8 on account of a reduced BABIP and home run rate. This led to an ERA that was far out of line with his peripheral numbers. With two or three statistical red flags, there's virtually no chance that Cotts duplicates his 2005. Moreover, while Cotts' mechanics are less of a concern than they once were, they're still on the busy side, and make his command an uphill battle. That's the "other" Pedro Martinez, the Padre lefty, among his comparables.

 

meh. i'd rather keep eyre.

[erik316wttn]

I'd like some of the weed Jim Hendry is smoking, please.

 

It must be good stuff.

[Bruno7481]

Aardsma was expendable, not that big of a loss in my opinion.

 

Have to see what the next move is before this one can be totally judged. It is highly unlikely they will start 2007 with three Lefties in the pen (Eyre, Cotts, Ohman).

 

Maybe Cotts will be tried out as a starter as some have speculated. one of the other guys could be traded, or Cotts.

 

Let's see what happens next.

 

I find it hard to bash Hendry on this move, because as of right now, it is an incomplete one.

[A New Era]

I'd like some of the weed Jim Hendry is smoking, please.

 

It must be good stuff.

 

jere ya go duud. http://www.ganjatalk.com/forum/images/smilies/joint.gif. By the way, what are you reffering to? Cotts!?

[Soul]

Aardsma hasn't shown he'll be able to succeed at all, ever.

 

Except for in the second half of 2006, when he posted a 3.12 ERA and struck out 35 in 34.2 innings, while holding opponents to a .198/.277/.347 line.

 

I'm not saying that I oppose the trade, but Aardsma certainly showed that he can be a successful reliever.

 

I'm not saying Aardsma will never succeed, just that he hasn't proven it for anything that would be considered a decent period of time.

 

One half of a season, on a team that was out of contention, doesn't qualify as proof IMO, that's all. Cotts did it for a whole year on a WS Champion. A bit different, wouldn't you agree?

 

I wish Aardvark all the best. I hope he does well, and he certainly might.

[rocket]

i guess i'd rather trade a bullpen arm for a bullpen arm rather than ridiculously overspend for one.

[PrimeTime]

You guys can check out what the scumbag sox fans are saying about the trade here

http://www.whitesoxinteractive.com/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=81235

 

they seem to like the deal, mostly because Aardsma is a flamethrower...they should know the guy has no control though

[Omar]

Neal Cotts is more proven, at least. Aardsma is young, and can still blossom into a reliable reliever. We'll just wait and see if this trade was worth it.

[hankp101]

A buddy of mine that is a Reds fan seems to remeber Lou once saying "You can never have enough lefties." The motivation behind this move might be as simple as that.